Elektrische Zweiräder 2021-2041: IDTechEx

It takes 14 years for the world to catch up with China

Elektrische Zweiräder 2021-2041

Elektroroller und Elektromotorräder in China, Indien, Indonesien, Vietnam, Europa, den USA und im Rest der Welt


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While in the US and Europe the primary form of urban mobility is the car, in East Asia the dominant form of transportation is the motorcycle, which is much cheaper to own and run. Motorcycles are not always held to equivalent emissions standards as cars and can be highly polluting. In the past decade, India has overtaken China to become the world's largest motorcycle market, selling roughly 17 million in fiscal year 2020 in a global market of 57 million. It is no coincidence that India has seven out of the world's top ten most polluting cities. When we hear ambitious electrification targets from countries like India, it not the electrification of cars, but that of two-wheelers, micro-mobility and public transport which is the primary focus.
 
 
Data sources: Industry associations, Marklines, IDTechEx
 
 
This report addresses and forecasts two-wheelers with pure electric modes under 4kW ('electric scooters') and over 4kW ('electric motorcycles'). While cosmetic or functional differences can exist for two-wheelers under 4kW, they belong to the same class if they have pure electric modes and travel under 45kmph. This category is distinct from pedal-assist bicycles (pedelecs), not included here, which typically have 250W motors activated only by pedalling action (popular in Europe).
 
The average price for the electric scooter is roughly the equivalent of $420 and $850 in China and India, respectively, the two largest markets. In contrast, European models are typically sold for a few thousand dollars. In Asia, the trend is for electric moto makers to design and sell two-wheelers at upfront price parity by downsizing the batteries and sacrificing range. As battery costs fall for two-wheelers, it is performance that increases, rather than upfront price decreasing. Generally, the opposite is true in the US and Europe.
 
For electric motorcycles, the addressable markets are not high-volume urban environments in Asia. It is instead environmentally conscious moto enthusiasts curious to try electric models out, perhaps whilst keeping a Harley Davidson safe in the garage. Users of > 250cc motorcycles are declining in the US and Europe, and the electric motorcycle market is made up of only a small number of players. In the US, motorcycles are not driven because they meet a core mobility need: the king of mobility in the US is the car, which most can afford and choose as their primary transport mode above all else. Indeed, motorcycles in the US are predominantly ridden for enjoyment and as part of a lifestyle choice; this in turn makes it harder to sell the electric motorcycle, because of the nostalgia and lifestyle associated with 'loud pipes'.
 
The report further looks at the core technologies enabling electric two-wheelers. There is a general transition away from lead-acid batteries for two-wheelers in Asia, which currently dominate for low cost but are highly toxic and not disposed of safely. With the transition to Li-ion comes challenges in countries like India because of the high temperatures of 45 degrees C in the summer, and the culture to leave vehicles parked out in the hot sun when charging or residing at home or work. Market leaders are working with battery suppliers to design chemistries to help solve this issue.
 
The report also addresses electric traction motor technologies; here solutions vary dramatically from custom, innovative permanent magnet synchronous motors designed in California, to off the shelf brushless DC solutions made and imported from China.
 
Summary of forecasts and data provided in this report:
 
  • Electric two-wheeler unit sales by power class and region 2015-2041
  • Electric two-wheeler battery demand (GWh) by power class and region 2015-2041
  • Electric two-wheeler battery demand (GWh) by Lead-acid / Li-ion split and region 2015-2041
  • Electric two-wheeler revenue generation by power class and region 2015-2041
  • Market shares of electric two-wheeler companies in India
  • Market shares of Li-ion electric two-wheeler OEMs in China
  • Market shares of electric motorcycle makers in the US
 
Forecast regions are China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, EU + UK, US, RoW.
Power classes are < 4kW (electric scooters) and > 4kW (electric motorcycles).
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.The Importance of Electric Two-wheelers
1.2.Electric Two-wheeler Classification
1.3.Electric Two-wheelers Unit Sales 2015-2041
1.4.Li-ion & Lead-acid Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
1.5.Battery Chemistry Choices
1.6.Electric Two-wheelers Market Size 2015-2041 ($ billion)
1.7.Where's the Money in 2020, Where it Will be in 2041
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Electric Vehicle Terms
2.2.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.3.Low Maintenance
2.4.Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
2.5.Two-wheelers vs. Other Electric Vehicles
2.6.Electric Two-wheeler Voltage Characteristics
2.7.Electric Two-wheelers Over 4kW
2.8.Electric Two-wheelers: Drivers
2.9.High Pollution and Oil Imports Drive Electrification
2.10.Electric Two-wheelers: Drivers
2.11.No noise: good or bad?
2.12.Electric Motorcycle Performance
2.13.Barriers for Electric Two-wheelers
2.14.Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
2.15.Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
2.16.Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
2.17.Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
2.18.Hybrid Two-wheelers
2.19.Hybrid Two-wheelers: Historic Failures
2.20.Honda: PCX Hybrid Scooter
3.CHINA
3.1.Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China
3.2.How Chinese Two-wheelers are Different
3.3.What's Driving Electrification in China?
3.4.Regulation History & Safety Concerns
3.5.China's Current Two-wheeler Policy (April 2019)
3.6.E2W Bans in China
3.7.E2W in China: The Party's Over
3.8.Rise of Li-ion in Chinese Electric Two-wheelers
3.9.Why is Lead-acid Production Rising?
3.10.Li-ion OEM Market Share
3.11.Chinese Electric Two-wheeler Prices
4.INDIA
4.1.India: Transportation Diversity
4.2.Mobility Trends in India
4.3.The World's Largest Moto Market
4.4.Emissions Regulation
4.5.Incumbent Moto Market Shares FY20
4.6.High Pollution and Oil Imports Drive Electrification
4.7.New Delhi: Pollution Equal to 50 Cigarettes a Day
4.8.India Moto Market Forecast
4.9.India: Historic E2W Market Growth
4.10.India: Flawed Electric Vehicle Policy
4.11.FAME in FY19: Low-speed Impact
4.12.Electrification Target Confusion
4.13.Electric OEM Market Shares
4.14.Rise of Li-ion in India
4.15.Gigafactories in India
4.16.India Li-ion Battery Pack Chemistry & Price Forecast
4.17.Performance Parity
4.18.Hero Electric Models
4.19.List of EV Startups in India
4.20.Ather Energy
4.21.E-motion - Surge
4.22.22Motors - Flow
4.23.Harley Davidson Failure
4.24.Bajaj Auto Chetak
4.25.IDTechEx Portal Profiles
5.US
5.1.The US Moto Market
5.2.US Electric Motorcycle Forecast
5.3.Incentives for Electric Two-wheelers
5.4.Zero-emission Motorcycles in the US
5.5.US Electric Motorcycle OEM Market Shares
5.6.Electric Scooters in the US
5.7.GenZe
5.8.Electric Motorcycles in California
5.9.Zero Motorcycles
5.10.Zero Motorcycle's Technology
5.11.Increasing Battery Capacity
5.12.New Sources of Growth in a Stagnating Industry
5.13.Alta Motors: A Cautionary Tale
6.EUROPE
6.1.The European Moto Market
6.2.European Two-wheeler Classification
6.3.Historic Electric Two-wheeler Sales in Europe
6.4.European Electric Two-wheeler Forecast 2015-2041
6.5.Govecs
6.6.Vespa Elettrica
6.7.Kymco
6.8.Valeo's 48V Scooter Powertrain
6.9.Continental's 48V Scooter Powertrain
6.10.BMW C Evolution
6.11.Volta
6.12.Electric Motion
6.13.Energica
6.14.IV Electrics
6.15.KTM
7.SOUTH-EAST ASIA
7.1.Indonesia: Historic Motorcycle Sales
7.2.Indonesia: Electric Two-wheeler Forecast
7.3.Indonesia: Case Study
7.4.Garansindo
7.5.Indonesia: Honda Pilot
7.6.Vietnam: Historic Motorcycle Sales
7.7.Vietnam: Takuda Motor
8.REST OF WORLD MARKETS
8.1.Taiwan: Historic Motorcycle Sales
8.2.Gogoro
8.3.Battery Swapping
8.4.China Motor Corp
8.5.Kymco (versus Gogoro)
9.ENERGY STORAGE
9.1.Li-ion
9.1.1.What is a Li-ion battery?
9.1.2.The Battery Trilemma
9.1.3.Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
9.1.4.More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
9.1.5.Cathode Performance Comparison
9.1.6.The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
9.1.7.The Reality of Silicon
9.1.8.Silicon: Incremental Steps
9.1.9.What is in a Cell?
9.1.10.Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
9.1.11.Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
9.1.12.Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
9.1.13.Electric Two-wheeler Cells
9.1.14.Farasis
9.2.Fuel Cells
9.2.1.Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells
9.2.2.Fuel Cell Inefficiency and Cooling Methods
9.2.3.Challenges for Fuel Cells
9.2.4.Grey Hydrogen
9.2.5.Case Study: Hydrogen Costs
9.2.6.Infrastructure Costs
9.2.7.Fuel Cell Charging Infrastructure in the US
9.2.8.Fuel Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, internal-combustion
9.2.9.Fuel Cell Electric Two-wheelers
10.ELECTRIC MOTORS
10.1.Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
10.2.Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
10.3.BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
10.4.BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
10.5.Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
10.6.PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
10.7.PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
10.8.Permanent Magnet Assisted Reluctance (PMAR)
10.9.PMAR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
10.10.Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
10.11.Motor Efficiency Comparison
10.12.Magnet Price Increase Risk
10.13.Motor Technologies in Two-wheelers
10.14.Component developers for electric two wheelers
10.15.Motorcycles Have Unique Requirements
10.16.Electric Motorcycles
10.17.Magalec: electric motors for racing bikes
10.18.Overview of Electric Motor Market Share (2019)
11.FORECASTS: METHODOLOGY, ASSUMPTIONS, DATA
11.1.Forecast Assumptions
11.2.Forecast Methodology
11.3.FAQ on the Forecasts
11.4.Electric Two-wheelers Unit Sales 2015-2041
11.5.Unit Forecast Data by Region 2015-2041
11.6.Li-ion & Lead-acid Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
11.7.GWh Forecast Data 2015-2041
11.8.Li-ion & Lead-Acid GWh Forecast Data 2015-2041
11.9.Electric Two-wheelers Market Size 2015-2041 ($ billion)
11.10.$ Billion Forecast Data 2015-2041
 

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