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Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) 2018-2028

Market forecast, technology roadmap, AWES, CKP, HAWP, BAT: kite, aerostat, drone


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This report is intended for CEO, business planners, marketing VPs, academics, legislators, commentators, investors and others seeking a balanced, easily read, latest analysis of this newly credible form of high-power energy harvesting. Its emphasis is on commercialisation and the future. Airborne Wind Energy AWE is disruptive because it is much less damaging and intrusive than the traditional wind turbine. Indeed, it is capable of much more with its uniquely low capital cost and easy transportability. That means it is more than a replacement: it is intended to creates new markets, including forming a part of modern forms of standby generator that meet impending emissions directives.
 
AWE has moved from a hobbyist curiosity to attracting around $200 million investment from giants Google, EON, Shell, Schlumberger, Tata, Softbank and others. Two years ago it was widely seen as a solution looking for a problem. However, today, aviation authorities are adapting to accommodate the needs of these kites, tethered wings, aerostats and drones whether they are intended to power a ship, a small farm or - as GW offshore arrays - supplying a national grid. Potentially, AWE will do all that with no emissions and at a fraction of the cost of the conventional wind turbines, down where wind is weaker and more fitful. Clearly things are changing and IDTechEx, after two years of interviews, visits and analysis by PhD level, multi-lingual researchers, can now make sense of it all, including giving profiles of 25 winners and losers. The report appraises what remains between the proponents and commercial success, including attracting the necessary level of next-stage finance and technical assistance. How much? When?
 
This 300+ page report is replete with infographics, tables and graphs clarifying the variety of opportunity and technology grouped under the term AWE. It takes a strictly analytical rather than evangelical approach, pointing out that turbines lifted aloft by helium-filled aerostats make sense in Alaska, where solar cells are pretty useless and wind is sometimes weak. However, we counsel that those targeting cheap electricity for farmers with limited resources will have difficulty competing with diesel unless the law tips the playing field or obtaining fuel is problematic.
 
The IDTechEx approach is creative. We believe the new solar roads have a place on commercial ships polluting as much as 30,000 cars and, in tandem with AWE, we believe an electric ship could even become energy independent with zero emissions. We distinguish between AWE applications where the price of grid electricity is critical and where it is irrelevant. Learn the challenges of convincing all interested parties of the safety of these systems. Realistic and improving figures for maintenance, availability and life are crucial.
 
Impediments are appraised such an electrically launched AWE system using significant energy part of the time. We report ways of reducing the intermittency and therefore energy storage needed in an AWE system and we reveal the near-consensus concerning which designs are most predictable and controllable and we assess which proponents are the most promising investments, providing certain limitations are overcome. Learn how the technologies can be leveraged with extending solar panels on the generator and wave power in the offshore support. Could the flying device produce useful solar and wind energy? How realistic is flying much higher? What are the lessons from the proponents that have gone under? What has been said in recent conferences and interviews on the subject? Only here will you access these unique inputs: there are even a number of other IDTechEx reports and consultancy services available if you wish to drill deeper.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Some challenges
1.1.Purpose of this report
1.1.Each major wind turbine company has a $100 million research budget: perceptions
1.2.Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
1.2.Primary conclusions: the MW grid opportunity most are chasing
1.2.Comparison of the very different markets for small and large AWES showing features usually essential in red and features sometimes valued in yellow.
1.3.Remote power and microgrid global market $ billion
1.3.Primary conclusions: the opportunity beyond MW grid
1.3.Weak and strong business cases within the two main AWE addressable markets.
1.4.Conventional wind turbine compared to AWE.
1.4.Market driven approach
1.4.Degrees of autonomy for AWES
1.5.Comparison of some AWE developers intending commercialisation. Most promising for successful commercialisation of those investigated so far are shown red.
1.5.Off-Grid Energy Harvesting technology intermittent power generated
1.5.Competitive position of AWE against other energy sources. Illustrative and contentious.
1.6.Spider diagram for the attributes of 30-150kW off-grid AWES bought singly, when its key challenges are overcome, compared with diesel gensets, conventional wind turbines and photovoltaics producing similar power.
1.6.Main options taken seriously
1.6.Technology roadmap 1900-2038
1.7.Declared intentions for commercialisation and possible achievements
1.7.Some of the risks and misleading claims identified
1.7.Spider diagram for the attributes of 1-5 MW off-grid AWES bought in wind farms, when its key challenges are overcome, compared with conventional wind turbines, tidal and wave power and photovoltaics producing similar power. LCoE =
1.8.Energy independent ship opportunity
1.8.Big gap in the market
1.8.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of installed fully-functional AWE systems 100kW and below 2017-2038 number, unit price, market value
1.9.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of installed fully-functional AWE systems above 100kW2017-2038 number, unit price, market value
1.9.Background
1.9.How a mobile AWE generator can double as solar in sea container format. We understand that a French company is developing such an AWE+solar sea container but details are as yet secret.
1.9.1.Conventional wind power reaches its limits
1.9.2.Next stage AWE?
1.9.3.The technical opportunity
1.9.4.Market requirements by parameter for small vs large AWES
1.9.5.Current appraisal of largest addressable markets
1.9.6.No guarantees
1.10.Diesel killer or wind turbine killer?
1.10.IDTechEx forecast of manufacturers of installed fully-functional AWE systems 2017-2038
1.10.Typical wind speed vs altitude - some AWE dilemmas. Optimal altitudes vary per system from 300 meters to about 1000 meters.
1.10.1.Kill some diesel: prospect for low power AWEs off-grid
1.10.2.Kill some wind turbines and use "impossibly poor wind" locations: prospect for large on-grid AWEs
1.11.IDTechEx forecast of numbers of AWE drones 2017-2038
1.11.Energy Independent shipping
1.11.Average power density at 400ft top and 2000ft bottom where it particularly benefits the large communities in North America central and eastern, Europe and east to Moscow and Ukraine, East Asia central and, less populated, South Am
1.12.On-grid vs off-grid AWE opportunity by power of unit
1.12.Potential for multi-mode
1.13.Choice of altitude
1.13.Ground-gen a) vs fly-gen b)
1.14.Generation a) and recovery b)
1.14.Capacity factor
1.15.On-grid vs off-grid, optimal power
1.15.Scalability, safety and autonomy challenges by type of AWE shown green and conventional wind turbine shown blue.
1.16.Some of the organisations that have been involved in airborne wind energy
1.16.Investment by technology: wrong focus
1.17.Technology choice
1.17.AWE technology by altitude flown/ soon to be flown and trajectory showing figure of eight YoYo pumping action and height of 2-300 meters - usually lower than the highest conventional wind turbines and not therefore necessarily acc
1.18.Investment timeline
1.18.The lightning flash dilemma
1.19.The illumination at night dilemma
1.19.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems 100kW and below 2017-2028 number
1.20.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems 100kW and below 2017-2028 showing average unit price
1.20.Killing birds and bats
1.21.Derisked technology
1.21.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems 100kW and below 2017-2028 market value
1.22.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems above 100kW 2017-2028 number
1.22.Autonomy
1.23.Developers
1.23.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems above 100kW 2017-2028 showing average unit price increasing due to size and power increase
1.23.1.Most promising future AWE system providers
1.24.Investment timeline
1.24.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems above 100kW 2017-2028 market value
1.25.IDTechEx forecast of manufacturers of installed fully-functional AWE systems 2017-2028
1.25.Technology roadmap 1900-2038
1.26.Commercialisation roadmap 2017-2025
1.26.IDTechEx forecast of numbers of AWE drones 2017-2028
1.26.1.Overview and roadmap
1.26.2.Effect of plummeting cost of offshore wind farms
1.27.Market forecast 2017-2038
1.27.US average levelized costs for plants entering service in 2018 with IDTechEx indication of AWE targets and diesel generation cost in remote regions shown as blue arrow.
1.27.1.Focus
1.28.Sophisticated technology, often primitive marketing
1.28.Conventional wind turbine sales MW yearly 1991-2007
1.28.1.Over simplification
1.28.2.The addressable market
1.28.3.Offshore
1.28.4.Gensets
1.28.5.Wind power where there is no (ground) wind
1.28.6.Multiple benefits
1.28.7.Energy independent electric vehicles; fully responsive renewable gensets without battery storage: fully responsive wind farms
1.29.Example of opportunity: Ukraine
1.29.Renewable share in Remap 2030 model
1.30.Location of almost all large wind turbines in Ukraine with wind map at ground level
1.31.Wind turbine at Kiev International Airport
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Definition of energy harvesting
2.2.Need for high power harvesting
2.3.Characteristics of energy harvesting
2.4.Capacity factors, utilisation factors and load factors
2.5.Offshore energy innovation could leverage AWES
2.6.World's biggest wind turbines go online near Liverpool UK
3.ELECTRODYNAMIC AND PHOTOVOLTAIC HARVESTING
3.1.Some modes of high power, 10 watts or more, electrodynamic energy harvesting with related processes highlighted in green
3.1.Definition and scope
3.1.Background to PV for energy independent vehicles
3.2.One dream: Solar road/ AWE dynamic vehicle charging.
3.2.Many modes and applications compared
3.2.Examples of actual high power electrodynamic harvesting by type, sub type and manufacturer with comment. Those in volume production now are in yellow, within five years in grey, those with much development but no volume production
3.2.1.Options by medium
3.2.2.Examples compared
3.2.3.Photovoltaics: Natural AWE partner
4.AIRBORNE WIND ENERGY AWE PRINCIPLES
4.1.Introduction
4.1.Twind and tumbling wing aerostat concepts top and blimp version and system below.
4.2.Principle of U kite generator
4.2.The jargon
4.3.Favoured technologies
4.3.Passive tether configurations
4.3.1.Aerostat and autogiro
4.3.2.Tethered devices
4.3.3.Passive tether formats
4.4.ABB assessment
4.4.Early options for the flying device
4.5.Early Ground-Gen examples of parameters
4.5.Rotating dual kites the ultimate?
4.6.Main options still taken seriously
4.6.ABB assessment
4.7.Tether drag solution
4.8.Main options still taken seriously with examples of developers
5.SOME ACTIVE DEVELOPER/ SUPPORTER PROFILES, INTERVIEWS AND PLANS
5.1.Aenarete Netherlands
5.1.Altaeros BAT airborne wind turbine compared
5.2.Ampyx Power presentation October 2017
5.2.Aerosense Japan
5.3.Airloom Energy USA
5.3.Ampyx Power business plan presented to IDTechEx 2017
5.4.Ampyx Power staff
5.4.Altaeros Energies USA
5.5.Ampyx Power Netherlands
5.5.Kite Power 2
5.5.2.Ampyx in the past: consistency of purpose and meeting objectives
5.5.3.Ampyx Power in 2017: doing what it said it would do
5.5.4.Airborne Wind Energy questions for Ampyx Power
5.5.5.Update - 2017
5.5.6.Mocean Offshore BV update August 2017
5.5.7.IDTechEx "Off Grid Energy Independence" conference update April 2018
5.5.8.Part I: Launch & land
5.5.9.Part II the drone
5.5.10.Part III safe power
5.6.Artemis Intelligent Power
5.6.E-Kite system
5.7.e-Kite system
5.7.AWESCO European Union
5.7.1.PhD programs
5.8.Bladetips Energy France
5.8.E-kite ground station
5.8.1.Update from the IDTechEx "Off Grid Energy Independence" conference April 2018
5.9.Delft University of Technology Netherlands/ Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences Germany
5.9.EnerKite presentation at the IDTechEx Energy Independent Electric vehicle event TU Delft September 2017
5.10.eWind system
5.10.e-Kite Netherlands
5.11.EnerKite Germany
5.11.e-Wind proposition hiring land from farmers
5.12.Two kite system
5.12.e-Wind Solutions USA
5.13.Kite Power Systems UK
5.13.KiteGen kite providing supplementary power to a ship
5.13.1.Background
5.13.2.The technology
5.13.3.Interview
5.13.4.Further comment
5.14.KiteGen Italy
5.14.Parameters compared
5.15.Aircraft, winch and operating station
5.15.Kitemill Norway
5.15.1.Kitemill presentation at IDTechEx Energy Independent Electric Vehicle event September 26-27 2017 Delft
5.15.2.Interview September 28 2017
5.15.3.Overview
5.15.4.Interview with Kitemill - 25 March 2017
5.16.Kitenergy Italy
5.16.Typical vertical wind profiles above boundary layer
5.16.1.Kitenergy presentation at IDTechEx Energy Independent Electric Vehicle event September 26-27 2017 Delft
5.16.2.Interview Sept 28 2017
5.16.3.Earlier information
5.16.4.Interview
5.17.Kitepower Netherlands
5.17.Production and return
5.17.1.Interview September 28 2017
5.17.2.Interview
5.17.3.Announcement in June 2017
5.17.4.Kitepower presentation at IDTechEx Energy Independent Electric Vehicle event September 26-27 2017 Delft
5.18.Kiteswarms UK, Germany
5.18.Output power vs wind speed
5.19.Global development of LCoE for solar and wind compared to the scenario for Airborne Wind.
5.19.Kitewinder France
5.20.KiteX Denmark
5.20.Ground generator and kite
5.20.1.Interview
5.21.kPower USA
5.21.Kitenergy technology
5.21.1.Overview
5.22.Makani-x
5.22.Operating Data
5.22.1.Overview
5.22.2.The system
5.22.3.Safety
5.22.4.Specification
5.23.Omnidea Portugal
5.23.System operation
5.24.The wing
5.24.Open Source AWE
5.25.Pierre Benhaïem, Conception, Troyes Area, France
5.25.The floating wind turbine
5.26.The ground generator
5.26.Rotokite Italy
5.27.Skypull Switzerland
5.27.Kite-X laboratory
5.28.Makani-x Freiburg Germany October 2017
5.28.SkySails Power Germany
5.28.1.EnBW joins kite-wind project
5.29.Superturbine ™ USA, France
5.29.Makani AWES in action
5.29.1.Overview
5.30.SwissKitePower Project Switzerland
5.30.Evidence cited by Makani
5.31.Power profile
5.31.Technical University Munich Germany
5.32.TwingTec Switzerland
5.32.Circular trajectory with parameters vs conventional wind turbine.
5.32.1.TwingTec interview May 3rd, 2017
5.33.University of Limerick
5.33.600 kW energy kite
5.34.Future models envisaged
5.34.Upwind Portugal
5.35.Windlift USA
5.35.Google patented ideas
5.36.Regions where conventional wind turbines and Makani can operate
5.36.Windswept and Interesting UK
5.37.Basis of EC FP7 HAWE program headed by Omnidea
5.38.Rotating reeling
5.39.Rotating tether spinning kite collapses for retrieval before next power run.
5.40.Images from assessment
5.41.Average wind power density
5.42.Skysails system
5.43.Superturbine ™
5.44.TwingTec presentation October 2017
5.45.TwingTec USP
5.46.W&I kite systems
6.LESSONS FROM THE PAST
6.1.Guangdong High Altitude Wind Power China/ SkyWind USA
6.1.Guangdong HAWP
6.2.Joby system
6.2.Highest Wind USA
6.3.Joby Energy USA
6.3.Magenn air rotor system
6.4.Magenn Power Canada
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