Batteries for Stationary Energy Storage 2023-2033: IDTechEx

Global cumulative stationary battery storage capacity to exceed 2TWh by 2033

Batteries for Stationary Energy Storage 2023-2033

Granular ten-year market forecasts for installations of FTM & BTM BESS. Regional analysis on grid-scale, C&I & residential batteries, regulations, renewable/storage targets; based on extensive research into key player activity & government announcements.


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Battery demand for stationary energy storage is set to grow in line with an increasing number of renewable energy resources being added to electricity grids globally. Deployments will also be driven by pressure from governments and states to reach targets pertaining to renewable energy generation and energy storage. An evolving and improving regulatory landscape will also allow energy and battery storage markets to flourish.
 
IDTechEx predicts that by 2033, global cumulative stationary battery storage capacity is set to exceed 2 TWh. This will see annual stationary storage deployments grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2023-2033.
 
 
Lithium-ion Battery Demand (GWh, left) and (% split by market segment, right). Source IDTechEx
 
This report includes granular market forecasts, key player analysis, technology trends and applications, drivers and business models giving rise to revenue streams and regional analysis for the top installing countries.
 
Technology trends for stationary battery storage
Over the past decade, Li-ion batteries have become an increasingly important stationary energy storage technology. They now account for >90% of global installations of electrochemical energy storage. The main driver for their adoption has been the fast improvement in their performance and reduction in their cost.
 
LFP and NMC chemistries are the most popular in storage applications, though a shift towards LFP for grid-scale batteries is expected. Reasons for this include lower costs, better safety properties, and higher cycle life of LFP versus NMC. Residential battery suppliers are far more agnostic to battery chemistry choice, as these batteries' lifetimes are dictated more by consumer use behaviour than their intrinsic properties and chemistry. Regardless, LFP and NMC will continue to reign as the two dominant chemistries in the residential market.
Other analyses/discussions include the latest residential storage market trends, market size (US$), key players with revenues data, etc. supplemented by new primary information from key company interviews. The first company interviewed is BSL Battery, who operate in China, develop, and sell batteries into the solar/residential and low speed vehicle markets. The second company interviewed is E3/DC GmbH, who operate in Germany, develop, and sell battery systems to the residential market, and are planning to expand into the Vehicle-to-X (V2X) market. The E3/DC interviewee was a Director for their Battery Business and provided key insights into residential market trends.
 
The grid-scale market is leaning towards longer duration of battery storage, to accommodate growing volumes of renewable energy capacity on electricity grids. Li-ion may not be well suited to long-duration storage in future, whereas RFBs can store >10 hours of energy, presenting another means for energy companies to install longer-duration grid-scale storage in future. However, this market is still in its early stages, with grid-scale proof-of-concept projects starting to emerge. For instance, in 2022, Sumitomo Electric brought one of the world's largest vanadium RFBs online in Japan.
 
Applications, business models and revenue streams
Annual front-of-the-meter (FTM) installations will take a larger share of global annual Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) installations, by GWh, than behind-the-meter (BTM) installations in the next decade.
These batteries can provide a range of utility and ancillary services, giving Transmission System Operators (TSOs) the tools necessary to provide adequate national energy security and supply. Moreover, the means for large battery systems to produce revenues for their owners are becoming more apparent, through means such as revenue stacking. As business models continue to mature, investor confidence in BESS profitability will grow, thus facilitating reduced future project costs and increased installation volumes.
Batteries provide value in the BTM market primarily for the customer side. With regions such as Germany phasing out FiT schemes, consumers will take advantage of price arbitrage; using their batteries when grid prices are most expensive at times of peak demand.
This report provides a holistic view, with depictions and explanations, of the various electricity markets that battery storage assets can operate in across all market sectors, in tandem with revenue generation mechanisms.
Market drivers: renewable energy deployment, battery storage targets, regulation
The adoption of energy storage systems (ESS) is necessary for higher levels of renewable energy penetration and integration. As well as this, energy and battery storage targets and clear policy frameworks are necessary if the number of global BESS deployments is to be expedited.
 
Several U.S. States have energy storage and renewables mandates. With more states announcing new battery storage targets, and expanding older targets (such as New York), this trend is expected to continue and will be a key driver for U.S. BESS growth.
 
The state-level Australian renewable energy targets and storage incentives are key drivers for their high historical and forecasted BESS installation rates.
 
 
Australia storage policy, funding & renewables targets. Source IDTechEx
 
However, any government-level renewable energy or storage targets are currently absent, while the Victoria Energy Policy Centre (VEPC) has pushed for this. Clearly, state-level pressure is mounting on the policy front in Australia.
 
Regions are becoming more aware of regulatory barriers for the installation of BESS. For example, the removal of the 50 MW cap for storage deployment auctions in the UK will see larger systems installed in the coming years. Also, currently under India's Electricity Act 2003, storage is not defined as a standalone asset. This has led to regulatory hurdles when taxing these assets, reducing investor confidence, and acting as a major barrier preventing Indian BESS growth.
 
Comprehensive analysis and market forecasts
This report offers granular 10-year market forecasts, for the annual installations of FTM & BTM BESS (in MWh, GWh, TWh installed).
 
The seven most active countries have 2023-2033 forecasts with annual MWh installed for residential / C&I / grid-scale splits, or FTM / BTM splits otherwise. The US and China will be responsible for ~59% of these regions' cumulative BESS capacity in 2033, while rivalling each other for total deployments.
 
The regional analysis section includes detailed discussion and in-depth analysis on regional regulation developments, government- and state-level announcements, renewable generation and energy and battery storage targets, key player activity, major project installations, and future project pipelines.
 
These drivers and developments for future stationary storage deployments are documented, scrutinised, and discussed.
 
Key aspects
This report provides the following information
 
Technology trends:
  • Overview of materials and chemistries used in batteries for stationary energy storage, including their presence in the current market climate.
  • Presents the growth of Li-ion deployments in recent years, with analysis behind the drivers for this.
  • Comparisons of other relevant stationary storage technologies are presented and include: redox flow batteries (RFB), lead-acid batteries (LA), hydrogen fuel cells, high potential Energy Storage Systems (ESS) (Mechanical, Gravitational, CAES, LAES)
  • Residential Battery Storage: battery chemistry and property trends (capacity, modular designs, cycle life, warranties) discussed and analyzed from dozens of products/companies.
 
Value chain analysis:
  • Explanation of battery storage services in front-of-the-meter (FTM) and behind the meter (BTM).
  • Provides an overview of BESS applications in residential, commercial & industrial (C&I) and utility/grid-scale settings, and how this helps with increasing volumes of renewable energy integration to the grid, stabilization of the grid, etc.
  • Analysis and discussion providing a holistic view of the different electricity markets that battery storage assets can operate in across all market sectors.
  • Depiction and explanations are provided for the mechanisms that can generate lucrative revenue streams for battery storage asset owners through means such as revenue stacking, Power Purchase Agreements, etc.
  • Overview of key players in both residential and large-scale battery (C&I / grid / utility) markets. Includes analysis of incumbent technologies, company market share and region-specific supply chain developments.
  • Other residential battery analyses and discussions include latest residential storage market trends, market size (US$), key players with revenues data and company/technical product SWOT analyses.
  • Includes new primary information from key company interviews, including insights into company financials, market trends, product offerings, product designs and key areas of product development in the near-term.
  • Includes matrix of global players by business application and profiles of the major players in large scale BESS. Includes technical product specifications and recent major installations.
Market Forecasts & Regional Analysis:
  • Granular ten-year market forecasts for installations of FTM & BTM Battery Energy Storage Systems (ESS) (in annual MWh, GWh, TWh installed).
  • The seven most active countries have 2023 - 2033 forecasts with annual MWh installed for residential / C&I / grid-scale splits, with FTM / BTM splits otherwise.
  • Includes detailed discussion and in-depth analysis on regional regulation developments, renewable generation and energy and battery storage targets.
  • This has been informed by key player activity and major project installations, government- and state-level announcements, and future project pipelines. Discussion around these drivers for future stationary storage deployments are documented, scrutinised, and discussed.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Energy Storage: a Li-ion Battery Led Market
1.2.Classification of Energy Storage Systems
1.3.RES and Battery Storage Targets Adoption
1.4.RES / Storage Targets by Country
1.5.Redox Flow Batteries Overview
1.6.The Impact of RES on the Electricity Grid
1.7.Overview of Ancillary Services
1.8.Business Models and Revenue Streams Overview
1.9.Revenue Streams Description
1.10.Residential Batteries Market Size
1.11.Residential Battery Chemistries
1.12.Global Battery Installations Forecast
1.13.FTM & BTM Market Forecast breakdown
1.14.Battery Energy Storage Development 2018-2022
1.15.Global Trends
1.16.Global Trends
1.17.US Executive Summary
1.18.US States Storage and Targets Overview
1.19.California Overview
1.20.US Large Utility Battery Project
1.21.China Executive Summary
1.22.India Executive Summary
1.23.Japan Executive Summary
1.24.South Korea Executive Summary
1.25.Australia Executive Summary
1.26.Australia Storage Policy, Funding, and Renewables Targets
1.27.Victoria Big Battery
1.28.UK Executive Summary
1.29.Germany Executive Summary
1.30.Italy Executive Summary
1.31.Forecast Conclusions and Explanations
1.32.Forecast Conclusions and Explanations
1.33.Forecast Conclusions and Explanations
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Consumption of Electricity is Changing
2.2.Renewables are Leading the Power Source Changes
2.3.The Advantage of Energy Storage in the Power Grid
2.4.The Advantage of Energy Storage in the Power Grid
2.5.Stationary Storage Position in the Power Grid
2.6.Different Battery Sizes for Different Uses
2.7.Where Can Energy Storage Fit In?
2.8.Battery Storage System
2.9.Battery Storage Designed for Self Consumption
3.TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF BATTERIES AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES
3.1.Li-ion Batteries
3.1.1.Battery for Stationary Energy Storage: Overview
3.1.2.More Than One Type of Li-ion Battery
3.1.3.A Family Tree of Li Based Batteries
3.1.4.Differences Between Cell, Module, and Pack
3.2.Cathode Materials
3.2.1.Cathode Materials - NMC, NCA, and LMO
3.2.2.Cathode Materials - LCO and LFP
3.2.3.Cathode Suitability
3.2.4.Cathode Price Fluctuations
3.2.5.LFP or NMC for Stationary Storage?
3.3.Anode Materials
3.3.1.Anodes Compared 1
3.3.2.Anodes Compared 2
3.3.3.Where will LTO Play a Role?
3.3.4.IDTechEx's Li-ion Batteries Related Reports
3.4.Other Technologies
3.4.1.Redox Flow Batteries for Stationary Storage?
3.4.2.Lead-acid Batteries
3.4.3.Fuel Cell Limitations
3.4.4.High Potential ES Technologies: Overview
3.4.5.High Potential ES Technologies: Properties
3.4.6.High Potential ES Technologies: Properties Comparison
3.4.7.Comparison of Energy Storage Devices
4.STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE: DRIVERS, BUSINESS MODELS, AND REVENUE STREAMS
4.1.Introduction to ES Drivers
4.2.ESS for Every Position in the Value Chain
4.3.Power Capacity VS. Discharge Duration
5.BUSINESS MODELS AND REVENUE STREAMS
5.1.Business Models and Revenue Streams Overview
5.2.Revenue Streams Overview
5.3.Revenue Streams Description
5.4.Power Purchase Agreements
5.5.Battery Storage and Flexibility Optimisation PPAs
6.BTM APPLICATION SUMMARIES
6.1.BTM Summary: Values Provided by Battery Storage - Customer Side
6.2.Virtual Power Plants
6.3.Virtual Power Plant Companies
7.RESIDENTIAL BATTERY STORAGE
7.1.The Importance of Residential Battery Storage
7.2.Key Technology Trends and Observations
7.2.1.Residential Batteries Market Size
7.2.2.Residential Market Players
7.2.3.Battery Chemistries for Residential Storage
7.2.4.LMO Chemistry Market Share
7.2.5.Residential Battery Capacities
7.2.6.Modular Residential Battery Designs
7.2.7.Residential Battery Price/kg & Energy Density
7.2.8.Outlier Explanations
7.2.9.Importance of Cycle Life for Residential Battery Suppliers
7.2.10.Residential Battery Warranties
7.3.Company Interviews and SWOT Analyses
7.3.1.E3/DC - IDTechEx Index Scoring
7.3.2.E3/DC
7.3.3.BSL Battery - IDTechEx Index Scoring
7.3.4.BSL Battery
7.3.5.SunPower
7.3.6.BYD
7.3.7.Sonnen
7.3.8.Eaton
7.3.9.Enphase
7.3.10.Sungrow
7.3.11.Senec GmbH Offer a Market-leading Cycle Life
7.3.12.Residential Batteries Summary
8.FTM APPLICATION SUMMARIES
8.1.FTM: Values Provided by Battery Storage in Ancillary Services
8.2.Ancillary Service Requirements
8.3.Frequency Regulation
8.4.Levels of Frequency Regulation
8.5.Load Following
8.6.Spinning and Non-spinning Reserve
8.7.Dynamic Containment (DC)
8.8.Stacking Revenues for Battery Storage Asset Owners
8.9.FTM: Values Provided by Battery Storage in Utility Services
8.10.Gas Peaker Plant Deferral
8.11.Off-grid and Remote Applications
8.12.Other Drivers
8.13.Concluding Remarks
9.ENERGY STORAGE PLAYERS: LARGE SCALE BESS FOCUS
9.1.1.Players Overview
9.1.2.ES Player Business Model Reminder
9.1.3.Energy Storage Integrators
9.1.4.Leading FTM and C&I Stationary Storage Players
9.2.Company Lists and Profiles
9.2.1.Storage, Solar, Utility, and Energy Companies
9.2.2.Global Players by Business Application
9.2.3.Global Players by Region HQ
9.2.4.Companies from Other Sectors Jumping In
9.2.5.Value Chain
9.2.6.Company Profiles (Hyperlinks)
9.2.7.Benchmark of IDTechEx Index Across Vendors
9.3.Other Notable Companies
9.3.1.Tesla's ESS Business
9.3.2.Tesla: Powerwall and Powerpack
9.3.3.Tesla: Major Powerpack Projects
9.3.4.Tesla: Megapack
9.3.5.BYD
9.3.6.BYD's Layout is Similar to Tesla's
9.3.7.Fluence 2022 Update
9.3.8.NextEra Energy Resources 2022 Update
9.3.9.Wärtsilä 2022 Update
9.3.10.Aggreko 2022 Update
9.3.11.Leclanché
9.3.12.Green Charge Networks
9.3.13.Green Mountain Power
9.3.14.Green Mountain Power's Innovation Strategy
9.3.15.Ampard and Fenecon
9.3.16.Stem
10.REGIONAL ANALYSIS
10.1.Introduction
10.1.1.Long-term Forecasting of New Technologies
10.1.2.Forecast Methodology
10.1.3.Global Battery Installation Forecast
10.1.4.Global Battery Installation Forecast (BTM & FTM)
10.2.Australia
10.2.1.Australia Summary
10.2.2.Australia's Grid-scale and Residential Storage Growth
10.2.3.Australia Energy Storage Targets, Policies, and Rules
10.2.4.Australia Storage Policy, Funding, and Renewables Targets
10.2.5.Other State Policies, Schemes, and Targets
10.2.6.Victoria's Neighbourhood Battery Initiative
10.2.7.Victoria's Neighbourhood Battery Initiative
10.2.8.Australia's Li-ion Gigafactory and Supply Chain
10.2.9.Victoria Big Battery
10.2.10.Tesla to Supply 300MWh of its Megapack BESS for Edify Energy
10.2.11.Australian Player Activity Summary
10.2.12.Australia Concluding Remarks
10.2.13.Australia Battery Installation Forecast
10.3.Japan
10.3.1.Introduction to the Japanese Energy Status
10.3.2.Japanese multiple approaches toward energy resiliency
10.3.3.A trend shift: Residential2012 - Utility2017 - Residential2022
10.3.4.FiT phase out, driver for battery energy storage
10.3.5.Private households investing in Solar + Batteries
10.3.6.Peer-to-peer (P2P) residential energy trading
10.3.7.Tesla entering Japanese home battery market
10.3.8.Other approaches besides Home Batteries
10.3.9.Vehicle-to-grid (V2G)
10.3.10.Japan's grid-scale battery situation and project examples
10.3.11.Grid-scale batteries in Hokkaido
10.3.12.The "Basic Hydrogen Roadmap"
10.3.13.10MW Fukushima Electrolyser
10.3.14.Japan: Concluding Remarks
10.4.South Korea
10.4.1.South Korea overview
10.4.2.Polluting more now, to pollute less later
10.4.3.Government approach toward ES system
10.4.4.Korea: Market Drivers
10.4.5.Korean Renewable Energy Certificate (REC)
10.4.6.South Korea's state of electricity generation and battery storage
10.4.7.South Korea: ESS developer market share
10.4.8.Reduced battery installations after 2018
10.4.9.Battery fires in Korea
10.4.10.Causes of battery fires
10.4.11.Utility scale battery storage projects
10.4.12.South Korea: Concluding Remarks
10.5.India
10.5.1.India's commitment toward renewables
10.5.2.A lead-acid dominated industry
10.5.3.Battery storage and solar capacity trajectory under current circumstances
10.5.4.Battery Storage tenders and government push
10.5.5.India: Challenges, Predictions and Developments
10.5.6.The Indian Li-ion battery industry development
10.5.7.India's rooftop solar PV market and residential batteries situation
10.5.8.India Concluding Remarks
10.5.9.India Battery Installations Forecast
10.6.China
10.6.1.Chinese emissions target
10.6.2.Chinese power grid upgrade
10.6.3.China's Historic Energy Storage Deployments
10.6.4.Recent Regulation and Target Developments
10.6.5.China Energy Storage by Technology Split
10.6.6.China Concluding Remarks
10.6.7.China Battery Installations Forecast
10.6.8.China Forecast Assumptions
10.7.US overview
10.7.1.US States Storage and Targets Overview
10.7.2.US Electricity Costs
10.7.3.US Electricity Costs: Retail Price by State in 2020 (cents/kWh)
10.7.4.US Key Developments: Inflation Reduction Act
10.7.5.US Key Developments: American Energy Innovation Act
10.7.6.US Key Developments: FERC Order 2222
10.7.7.FERC 2222 advantages for ES market
10.7.8.US Key Developments: FERC Order 841
10.7.9.US: Anecdotes (1/3)
10.7.10.US: Anecdotes (2/3)
10.7.11.US: Anecdotes (3/3)
10.7.12.US Concluding Remarks
10.7.13.US Battery Installation Forecast
10.8.California overview
10.8.1.Large Utility Battery Projects (1/2)
10.8.2.Large Utility battery projects (2/2)
10.8.3.California home-batteries policies: SGIP
10.8.4.California home-batteries policies: NEM
10.8.5.California home battery market
10.9.Hawaii: 'The prototype state'
10.9.1.Hawaii clean energy initiative
10.9.2.Renewables + Storage are competitive with fossil fuels
10.9.3.Large Utility Battery Projects in O'ahu
10.9.4.Net Energy Metering (NEM) and its upgrade
10.9.5.Performance-based regulations & forecast
10.10.Virginia overview
10.10.1.Energy Storage Policy: Virginia
10.10.2.Energy Storage Policy: Virginia
10.10.3.Dominion Battery Project
10.11.New York overview
10.11.1.New York state moving toward Energy Storage
10.11.2.New York state energy storage roadmap
10.11.3.New York, and the largest installed battery - 2.5 GWh
10.11.4.New York Large Batteries Summary
10.12.South Carolina overview
10.12.1.South Carolina: Energy Freedom Act
10.13.Germany
10.13.1.Germany: the European 'California'
10.13.2.Structure and targets of the 'Energy Concept'
10.13.3.Germany overview
10.13.4.From coal to storage
10.13.5.Electricity grid upgrade
10.13.6.FTM in Germany
10.13.7.The German Energy Transition Emblem: 'BigBattery Lausitz'
10.13.8.GridBooster Project
10.13.9.RWE large batteries with hydropower
10.13.10.Innovation Auctions: 2020 & 2021
10.13.11.BTM: Home batteries as a solution
10.13.12.Solar-plus-storage has reached cost parity
10.13.13.KfW bank subsidy
10.13.14.Further options, after the FiT
10.13.15.Home batteries in Germany
10.13.16.Residential, C&I and Grid Battery Summary
10.13.17.Germany Battery Installations Forecast
10.14.Italy
10.14.1.Italy Overview
10.14.2.The Italian Feed-in Tarif, and the new RES Decree
10.14.3.Italian Historical Feed-in tariff
10.14.4.Electricity Storage in Italy: VPP development
10.14.5.FCA V2G in Mirafiori
10.14.6.Italy: Home Batteries recession
10.14.7.Italy's growing solar installations
10.14.8.First Italian CO₂ 'battery' storage facility
10.14.9.Italy Concluding Remarks
10.14.10.Italy Battery Installation Forecast
10.15.United Kingdom
10.15.1.UK Renewable Energy Overview
10.15.2.FTM and BTM Overview
10.15.3.Capacity Markets: Explained
10.15.4.A step forward for clean energy sources
10.15.5.Capacity Market Update Timeline
10.15.6.Batteries lost value after BEIS de-rating
10.15.7.Storage de-rating factors
10.15.8.Revenue Stacking (1/3)
10.15.9.Revenue Stacking (2/3)
10.15.10.Revenue Stacking (3/3)
10.15.11.Large UK BESS Project Developments; 2022
10.15.12.UK Residential Market
10.15.13.United Kingdom Residential & Grid Battery Summary
10.15.14.UK Battery Installation Forecast
10.16.Latin America
10.16.1.Latin America Energy Supply Overview
10.16.2.Chile and AES Andes lead the way
10.16.3.Other large developments
10.17.Africa
10.17.1.Africa Energy Overview
11.FORECASTS
11.1.Global Battery Installations Forecast
11.2.FTM & BTM Market Forecast (GWh)
11.3.FTM & BTM Market Forecast (US$B)
11.4.Australia Battery Installation Forecast
11.5.India Battery Installations Forecast
11.6.China Battery Installations Forecast
11.7.US Battery Installation Forecast
11.8.Germany Battery Installations Forecast
11.9.Italy Battery Installation Forecast
11.10.UK Battery Installation Forecast
12.COMPANY PROFILES
12.1.Aggreko
12.2.BSL Battery (Residential))
12.3.E3/DC GmbH (Residential)
12.4.Electric Era
12.5.Engie Storage
12.6.Fluence
12.7.Kokam
12.8.Leclanché
12.9.Powin Energy
12.10.Schneider Electric
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 334
Forecasts to 2033
Published Nov 2022
ISBN 9781915514325
 

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