Electric vehicles Report

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Electric Buses 2017-2027

Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment


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Industrial and commercial electric vehicles will be a similar market to cars but innovating faster and frequently more profitable for all in the value chain. The most important sector is buses, where innovation often comes before cars because they are less price sensitive.
 
In this report we show how the Chinese are now dominating the league table, buying the most buses and innovating rapidly already creating the lowest cost base by far. We examine the different power trains and the move from chassis to integrated manufacture often with no chassis and later structural electronics as bodywork will come. Technological roadmaps show the rapid innovation coming in the next decade and regional and technology sales are forecasted to 2027. Well over 100 hybrid and pure electric bus manufacturers are appraised and regional trends revealed. Based on extensive interviews, conferences and searches in 2015-6 this unique report is the only up-to-date in-depth appraisal of the issues and trends. It includes a detailed look at fuel cell buses over nearly three decades, identifying why further delays are risking the window of opportunity for them closing as the greener, more efficient pure electric buses prove fit for prime time and over a quarter of a million e-buses will be purchased in 2026 due to both legal push and market pull.
 
Forecasts are for number, unit price and market value 2017-2027 by region, powertrain and pure electric vs hybrid. Over 8t and under 8t are analysed in the 265+ pages of original summary and analysis, easily grasped by those with limited time. The information has been appraised by our PhD level analysts with long experience and an intensive program of travel to check out the facts. Worldwide, over 100 manufacturers and many recent interviews are covered including EV events in Japan, Taiwan, the USA, UK and Germany in the last few months. This is essential because the subject is moving so fast with the strong technologies, regions, manufacturers etc changing rapidly.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Tata Motors CNG hybrid bus in India left and BYD K9 pure electric bus from China right that is the most widely trialled and adopted of its type
1.1.Overview
1.1.Market for conventional diesel buses, hybrid and pure electric buses > 8t by rationale, end game in green
1.2.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives by year by region 2016-2027
1.2.Summary of technical preferences
1.2.Market for electric buses number K 2015-2027
1.3.Market for electric buses average unit price $K 2015-2027
1.3.Statistics issues
1.3.Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain number K 2015-2027
1.4.Market for electric buses average unit price $K 2015-2027
1.4.Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market
1.4.Market for electric buses $ billion 2015-2027
1.5.Market by territory number % 2015-2026 for electric buses >8t
1.5.Chinese price/performance
1.5.Market value for electric buses $ billion 2015-2027
1.6.Market by territory number % 2017-2027 for electric buses >8t. Major high cost markets in blue.
1.6.IDTechEx projection with key orders, technology timelines
1.6.Ex-factory lowest price range of diesel, hybrid and pure electric 35-90 seat urban buses in China vs North America/ Europe 2012 and 2015. Chinese cost reduction of hybrids is obscured by move to more expensive hybrids (long range
1.7.Passenger travel by bus by region in England.
1.7.Electric bus forecasts 2017-2027, number, unit value, market value
1.7.Price spread $K of buses >8t by region and technology 2012 and 2015, with exceptional prices excluded. High priced market red. Low priced market green. Significant price decrease bright green.
1.8.Market drivers and impediments are summarised below.
1.8.Forecast by territory for buses for APAC, NA, Europe, other
1.8.Bus size vs fuel consumption
1.9.BYD articulated pure electric Lancaster bus for 120 passengers with 170 km range announced late 2014
1.9.Cost trends - China ready to pounce
1.9.Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
1.10.Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth. Green shows strongest market drivers
1.10.Market drivers and impediments
1.10.The value chain is changing radically due to vehicle design being changed as summarized below. Ladder type hybrid bus chassis top
1.11.Structural supercapacitor as car or bus bodywork, experimental
1.11.Regional differences
1.11.League table of EV traction battery manufacturers mWh
1.12.The typical chassis-plus-body value chain of hybrid buses 2015. Main added value shown in green
1.12.China, India and cities
1.12.UITP summary of technological options for buses
1.13.MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery, the favoured practice in China
1.13.Radical change
1.13.Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus
1.14.Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus with structural electronics
1.14.Truly global market for similar buses
1.14.EV powertrain technology roadmap
1.15.Percentage share of 92 fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 by fuel cell manufacturer
1.15.Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5
1.15.Some of the main technological options compared
1.16.Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
1.16.Weak trend to larger buses but not in China
1.16.North American sales of school buses 2000-2009, total buses sold
1.17.Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013
1.17.Value chain and powertrain
1.17.Some of the factors increasing pure electric bus range 2017-2027
1.18.e-bus drive train technology options compared, with commercially problematic issues highlighted
1.18.Hybrids becoming pure electric
1.18.Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013
1.19.Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013
1.19.Relative importance of technical options
1.19.2012 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country from OICA correspondents' survey
1.20.Second quarter YTD 2014 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country
1.20.Technology disagreement
1.20.Autonomous shuttle in Switzerland
1.21.Autonomous electric bus Olli
1.21.Fuel cell buses: progress and potential
1.21.School bus statistics for USA and China 2015
1.21.1.Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses
1.22.Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general
1.22.First half sales by country for commercial vehicles CV 2013/3/4
1.22.Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016
1.22.1.Automotive industry
1.22.1.Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland - June 2016
1.22.2.School buses
1.22.2.Disruptive new bus concepts in 2016
1.22.3.Largest bus manufacturers
1.23.Buses will be taxis will be buses
1.23.Top five bus manufacturers 2005, 2011, 2015, Chinese in red, with output number of buses >8t
1.23.1.Huge impact of autonomous car as bus is calculated in 2017
1.24.The bus of the future
1.24.Domestic bus sales in China in October 2014
1.25.Rank of automotive manufacturers by production in 2013. LCV includes Minibuses," derived from light commercial vehicles, are used for the transport of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat a
1.25.Death of conventional buses: 2017 assessment
1.26.New pollution horrors boost pure electric bus adoption
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025
2.1.Urban logistics trends
2.1.Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
2.2.142 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel
2.2.The move to electric
2.2.Transport of people 2010-2025
2.3.LCV and urban bus usage hours
2.3.Motor technology by type of vehicle
2.3.TOSA bus specification
2.3.2.Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology?
2.3.3.Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths
2.4.TOSA charging infrastructure specification
2.4.Choice of lithium-ion batteries
2.4.Proterra EcoRide
2.4.1.142 lithium battery manufacturers: chemistry, format, sales successes
2.5.Global situation: some recent highlights
2.5.Rapid battery charging takes place at every third or fourth bus stop along the pilot project's route, which runs between Geneva airport and the city's exhibition center.
2.5.1.Australia
2.5.2.China
2.5.3.India
2.6.North America
2.6.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2014
2.6.1.Proterra E2 logs over 600miles on a single charge - September 2016
2.7.Europe
2.7.The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2014
2.7.1.UK
2.7.2.Germany
2.7.3.Sweden, Switzerland
2.7.4.ABB intermittent overhead charging
2.7.5.Turkey
2.8.Asia Pacific
2.8.Fuel and energy current fleet.
2.9.Past to present
2.9.Latin America
2.10.Africa/Middle East
2.10.Drivers for the development of propulsion systems for bus transport systems
2.11.Program leading to zero emission urban bus systems in Europe
2.11.Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles
2.12.Electrification
2.12.Transit Elevated Bus
2.13.Drivers of change
2.14.Another supercapacitor bus stop charging system
2.15.Bus that travels above traffic - August 2016
2.16.Nine reasons why electric buses and trucks make sense for California
2.17.Huge impact of pure electric buses
3.ELECTRIC BUSES IN CHINA
3.1.China automotive market 1999-2020
3.1.China automotive industry
3.2.Leapfrogging technology
3.2.Breakdown of automotive market in China 2009-2014
3.3.Overcapacity in China
3.3.IDTechEx assessment of Chinese bus technology
3.3.1.Advanced technology in latest e-buses
3.3.2.Hiccups
3.3.3.China and rare earths
3.4.Chinese fuel cell activity: 35 organisations profiled
3.4.Primary foreign competition in China
4.SURVEY OF HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
4.1.Manufacturers of hybrid electric buses by geographical location
4.1.Manufacturers of hybrid electric buses and powertrains "chassis", country of headquarters, bus output, e-bus output 2015 (red under 1,000 yearly, blue 1,000-10,000 yearly, green over 10,000), images, successes, assessment
4.1.Overview
4.2.Analysis of hybrid bus manufacturers by location
4.3.86 hybrid bus manufacturers compared: HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment.
5.SURVEY OF PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
5.1.Manufacturers of pure electric buses by geographical location
5.1.Overview
5.1.Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters, bus output, e-bus output 2015 (red under 1,000 yearly, blue 1,000-10,000 yearly, green over 10,000), images, successes, assessment
5.2.Analysis of pure electric bus manufacturers by location
5.3.80 manufacturers of pure electric buses by HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment
6.FUEL CELL BUSES: LESSONS OF 92 TRIALS
6.1.Fuel cell electric bus schematic
6.1.Technology
6.1.Fuel cell bus trials 1991-2014 showing power kW by project. Record year shown green; largest power shown brown.
6.2.Examples of PEM fuel cell buses 2011-2015
6.2.Fuel cell bus rollout as planned by Daimler in 2010 but delayed
6.2.Daimler's technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015
6.3.The positioning of the planned Toyota fuel cell hybrid bus FCHV-BUS now delayed
6.3.Reasons for failure to launch
6.4.Third decade of trials
6.4.Daimler fuel cell bus status
6.5.Technical advances past and future of Daimler fuel cell vehicles
6.5.Ballard Pyrrhic victory
6.6.Fuel cell cars in trouble, holding back buses
6.6.Cost potential of fuel cell technology
6.7.Modular fuel cell strategy of Daimler
6.7.New competitor
6.8.Window of opportunity closing
6.8.Hydrogen infrastructure in Germany
6.9.Ballard presentation
6.9.Catalog of shortcomings
6.10.Advances
6.10.Percentage interest in different powertrains by bus operators
6.11.Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
6.11.Ballard approach
6.12.Fuel cell size reduces, fewer trials, no rollouts
6.12.Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2010
6.13.Daimler Citaro bus
6.13.Program slippage
6.14.US Targets
6.14.Van Hool bus with UTC Power fuel cell
6.15.New Flyer/Bluways bus with Ballard fuel cell
6.15.US evaluations
6.16.Key observation
6.16.Proterra bus with Hydrogenics fuel cell (plug-in, battery dominant)
6.17.Daimler program today
6.18.Justified scepticism
6.19.Hyundai progress
6.20.Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015
6.21.Fuel cell bus trials 2011-2015
6.22.Commitment in Europe
6.23.Commitment in the USA
6.23.1.Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US
6.23.2.Flint MTA testing Proterra hydrogen fuel cell bus prototype for one year - October 2016
6.24.Commitment in China
7.EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS
7.1.Aleees bus showing position of two of the battery pack locations and the rollers on which they reside.
7.1.ALABC/ILA London January 2016
7.2.Acal Energy UK
7.2.Ebusco publicity
7.3.WAVE bus system
7.3.Aleees Taiwan
7.4.Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA
7.4.Range difficulties with pure electric industrial vehicles
7.5.Proterra view on wireless charging vs other charging of buses today
7.5.Ebusco Netherlands
7.6.EV Roadmap 8 USA
7.6.PowerHydrant
7.7.Green GT France
7.8.Hyundai Korea
7.9.IFEVS Italy
7.10.ITRI Taiwan
7.11.Nippon ChemiCon Japan
7.12.PowerHydrant USA
7.13.Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany
7.14.Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan
7.15.University of California Davis USA
APPENDIX - HINO MOTORS ADVANCES HYBRID BUSES
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
FIGURES
 

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