Thermal Management for 5G 2022-2032: IDTechEx

12 Million New 5G Stations Requiring Thermal Management in 2032

Thermal Management for 5G 2022-2032

Sub-6 GHz and mmWave 5G in infrastructure and smartphones. Antenna developments, mMIMO, power amplifiers, semiconductor technologies, die attach materials and thermal interface materials.

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5G deployment is in full swing with mid-band infrastructure installed by the end of 2021 representing nearly 6 times what it was in 2019. However, this doesn't mean that all of the challenges have been solved. Much of the 5G infrastructure is repurposed 4G equipment at lower frequency bands. The real transition to 5G comes from the adoption of higher frequencies which have largely been categorised into sub-6 GHz and mmWave (> 20 GHz) bands. One of the key challenges is thermal management. As 5G deployment transitions to higher frequency, the antenna design, technology and material choices transition too. This will impact several factors such as the semiconductor technology, the associated die attach materials and thermal interface materials.
IDTechEx expects much of the infrastructure deployment in the short term to be in the lower frequency sub-6 GHz band. Later into the decade, we expect a significant increase in mmWave installations where more units will be required to provide sufficient coverage.
Whilst sub-6 GHz 5G may not provide the astonishing speeds and applications often publicised for 5G, it plays a crucial role in achieving coverage over large areas. Some of this is accounted for in lower bands more comparable to historic 4G but as we push above 4 GHz, the historic LDMOS (laterally-diffused metal-oxide semiconductor) power amplifiers begin to struggle with efficiency. This is where wide bandgap semiconductors like GaN (gallium nitride) start to shine. We have started to see GaN being adopted by players like Huawei in their 4G infrastructure. We are expecting GaN to take a greater market share in 5G and with GaN comes a transition in the die attach technology. In fact, IDTechEx is predicting that GaN power amplifiers will see a 4 fold increase in yearly demand over the next 10 years. AuSn is the typical die attach material for GaN today, but we foresee an opportunity for sintered pastes as a replacement with their improved thermal performance.
mmWave is the high-frequency technology that can deliver on the potentially wondrous applications of 5G with incredible download speeds and ultra-low latency. The challenge comes with signal propagation; as the frequency increases so does the attenuation of the signal, leading to reduced range and easy blocking by walls, windows and even severe weather conditions. To increase the antenna gain, the number of antenna elements will increase, but thanks to the smaller wavelength, the antenna units themselves will shrink. This leads to a much more tightly packed array of power amplifiers and beamforming electronic components and with that, a greater thermal management challenge. Thanks to the greater number of antenna elements, the power demand on each amplifier can potentially be reduced, but the highly compact nature of the electronics will lead to greater integration of components and likely rely more on silicon based technologies. However, mmWave small cells will require greater deployment numbers to provide sufficient coverage and due to their deployment scenarios, are unlikely to be able to utilise active cooling methods; combining this with the densification of beamforming components will present greater requirements for solutions like thermal interface materials.
Another popular technology for 5G is massive MIMO enabling infrastructure to serve more terminals in the same frequency band. This increases the number of RF chains per installation, beamforming capabilities and the number of antenna elements used in networks. The result is an increase in the materials required for the antenna PCB, power amplifiers, beamforming components and many more. Massive MIMO also drives data transfer rates and channels higher leading to a greater requirement on baseband processing units, power consumption and hence greater market opportunities for thermal interface materials.
As 5G deployment continues to grow, the yearly demand for thermal interface materials (TIMs) grows too. The antenna, baseband processing (BBU) and power supply represent significant market opportunities.
Many of the initial 5G smartphones that were tested by the public (especially the mmWave compatible ones) would overheat whilst utilising 5G's high download speeds and would drop back to using 4G in order to cool down. This has become less of a concern with newer devices thanks to developments of 5G modems and antenna as well as effective thermal management strategies. The smartphone market is huge and presents a great opportunity for thermal interface materials and heat spreaders. Many more recent devices have utilised options like copper vapour chambers to enhance heat dissipation. But we have equally seen many players falling back towards graphite heat spreaders, whilst some are adopting advanced materials such as graphene heat spreaders. The material, application and quantity of thermal materials used in smartphones is continuing to evolve and presents a substantial market with billions of devices sold each year.
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Table of Contents
1.1.5G Base Station Types: Macro Cells and Small Cells
1.2.5G Stations Installed per Year (2020-2032) by Cell Type (macro, micro, pico/femto)
1.3.5G Stations Installed per Year (2020-2032) by Frequency (Sub-6 GHz & mmWave)
1.4.5G Installations by Cell Type and MIMO Size (2020-2032)
1.5.Shifting to Higher Frequencies Shrinks the Antenna
1.6.Case Study: Samsung 28 GHz Access Point
1.7.Key Semiconductor Technology Benchmarking
1.8.GaN to Win in Sub-6 GHz 5G
1.9.Si vs Wide Bandgap for mmWave
1.10.The Array Size and PA Performance Trade-off
1.11.Semiconductor Comparison
1.12.Semiconductor Forecast (2020-2032) for Power Amplifiers by Technology
1.13.LDMOS Power Amplifier Structure
1.14.Solder Options and Current Die Attach
1.15.Why Metal Sintering?
1.16.Ag Sinter Process Conditions Summary
1.17.Die Attach for Power Amplifiers Forecast
1.18.Sintering Market Value Forecast
1.19.TIM Types in 5G
1.20.Properties of Thermal Interface Materials
1.21.TIM Properties and Players for 5G Infrastructure
1.22.Total TIM Forecast for 5G Stations
1.23.Trends in Smartphone Thermal Material Utilization
1.24.Thermal Interface Material and Heat Spreader Forecast in Smartphones
1.25.Summary of Report
1.26.Company Profiles
2.1.1.Global Snapshot of Allocated/targeted 5G Spectrum
2.1.2.Differences Between 4G and 5G
2.1.3.Low, Mid-band 5G is Often the Operator's First Choice to Provide 5G National Coverage
2.1.4.Approaches to Overcome the Challenges of 5G Limited Coverage Commercial/pre-commercial Services by Frequency mmWave Commercial/pre-commercial Services (mid 2021)
2.1.7.The Main Technique Innovations in 5G Types of 5G Services Supply Chain Overview
2.1.10.Summary: Global Trends and New Opportunities in 5G
2.2.Thermal Management for 5G
2.2.1.Thermal Management for 5G: Introduction
2.2.2.Thermal Management Contents of the Report
3.1.From 1G to 5G: Evolution of Cellular Network Infrastructure
3.2.Architecture of Macro Base Stations
3.3.Key Challenges for 5G Macro Base Stations
3.4.5G Base Station Design Trend
3.5.5G Base Station Types: Macro Cells and Small Cells
3.6.Drivers for Ultra Dense Network (UDN) Deployment in 5G
3.7.Challenges for Ultra Dense Network Deployment
3.8.5G Small Cells Will See Rapid Growth
3.9.5G Infrastructure: Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, Samsung and others
3.10.Competition Landscape for Key 5G Infrastructure Vendors
3.11.5G Stations Installed per Year (2020-2032) by Cell Type (macro, micro, pico/femto)
3.12.5G Stations Installed per Year (2020-2032) by Frequency (Sub-6 GHz & mmWave)
4.1.1.Shifting to Higher Frequencies Shrinks the Antenna
4.1.2.LTE Antenna Teardown
4.1.3.Radio Frequency Front End (RFFE) Module
4.1.4.Density of Components in RFFE
4.1.5.RF Module Design Architecture
4.1.6.Hybrid Heterogeneous Approach
4.1.7.Examples from Satellite and Phased-array Radar
4.1.8.Examples from Satellite and Phased-array Radar
4.1.9.Examples from Satellite and Phased-array Radar
4.2.Massive MIMO Installations by Cell Type and MIMO Size (2020-2032)
4.3.Planar vs Non-planar
4.3.1.Planar vs Non-planar Design
4.3.2.Non-planar Design
4.3.3.Planar Design
4.3.4.NEC's Antenna Design for Heat Dissipation
4.4.5G Use Cases
4.4.1.Main Suppliers of 5G Active Antenna Unit (AAU)
4.4.2.Case Study: NEC 5G Radio Unit
4.4.3.Case Study: Samsung 5G Access Solution for SK Telecom
4.4.4.Case Study: Nokia and CommScope Passive/Active Antenna
4.4.5.Intel and Ericsson 28 GHz All-silicon 64 Dual Polarized Antenna
4.4.6.Fujikura: 28 GHz Phased Array Antenna Module
4.4.7.Fujikura: 57-71 GHz Module
4.4.8.Nokia AirScale mMIMO Adaptive Antenna
4.4.9.Sub-6 GHz Antenna Teardowns
4.4.10.mmWave Antenna Teardown
4.4.11.Sub-6 GHz and mmWave in One Unit
4.5.Thermal Considerations for the Cell Tower
4.5.1.Thermal Considerations for Cell Towers and Base Stations
4.5.2.Thermal Considerations for Small Cells
4.5.3.Nokia's Base Station Liquid Cooling
4.5.4.ZTE's Award Winning Base Station Design
4.5.5.Antenna Array Design is Just One Consideration
4.6.Antenna Component Forecasts
4.6.1.Antenna Elements Forecast (Infrastructure)
4.6.2.Power Amplifier Forecast by Frequency
4.6.3.Power Amplifier Forecast by Station Size
4.6.4.BFIC Forecast by Frequency
4.6.5.BFIC Forecast by Station Size
5.1.2.Power Amplifier Semiconductor Choices 3G, 4G to 5G
5.1.3.Wide Bandgap Semiconductor Basics
5.1.4.The Choice of Semiconductor Technology for 5G
5.1.5.CMOS Types and Alternatives
5.1.6.Si vs Wide Bandgap for mmWave
5.1.7.Key Semiconductor Properties
5.1.8.Key Semiconductor Technology Benchmarking
5.1.9.Power vs Frequency Map of Power Amplifier Technologies
5.1.10.GaAs vs GaN for RF Power Amplifiers
5.1.11.GaAs vs GaN: Power Density and Footprint
5.1.12.GaAs vs GaN: Reliability and Dislocation Density
5.1.13.Main Drawbacks of GaN
5.2.The GaN Market for RF in 5G
5.2.1.GaN-on-Si, SiC or Diamond for RF
5.2.2.GaN Suppliers
5.2.4.Analog Devices
5.2.8.Mitsubishi Electric
5.2.9.Mitsubishi Electric
5.2.10.Northrop Grumman
5.2.11.NXP Semiconductor
5.2.12.NXP Semiconductor
5.2.14.Qorvo Sub-6 GHz Products
5.2.15.Qorvo mmWave Products
5.2.16.Qorvo and Gapwaves mmWave Antenna
5.2.17.Qorvo 39 GHz Antenna
5.2.20.Sumitomo Electric
5.2.22.Wolfspeed (Cree)
5.2.23.Wolfspeed GaN-on-SiC Adoption
5.2.24.Summary of RF GaN Suppliers
5.2.25.RF GaN Fabrication Lines
5.2.26.Summary of RF GaN Market for 5G
5.3.GaN to Dominate Sub-6 GHz?
5.3.1.LDMOS Dominates Now but Struggles at Sub-6 GHz 5G
5.3.2.GaN to Win in Sub-6 GHz 5G
5.3.3.Sub-6 GHz Power Amplifier Forecast by Semiconductor Technology
5.4.A Different Story for mmWave
5.4.1.The Situation at mmWave 5G is Drastically Different
5.4.2.Shift to Higher Frequencies Shrinks the Antenna
5.4.3.Major Technological Change: From Broadcast to Directional Communication
5.4.4.Solving the Power Challenge: High Antenna Gain
5.4.5.The Array Size and PA Performance Trade-off
5.5.5G Beamforming ICs Players and Examples
5.5.1.Analog: 16-channel Dual Polarized BFIC in SOI
5.5.2.Anokiwave: 4-channel Beamforming ICs in CMOS
5.5.4.NXP: 4-channel mmWave BFIC in SiGe
5.5.5.Otava SiGe BFIC
5.5.6.pSemi SOI
5.5.7.Renesas: mmWave BFICs
5.5.8.Sivers Semiconductors: Licensed and Unlicensed 5G
5.5.9.Sivers works with Ampleon and Acquires MIXCOMM
5.5.10.Sivers 32 Channel BFIC
5.5.11.Summary of BFICs
5.5.12.mmWave Power Amplifier Forecast by Semiconductor Technology
5.6.Semiconductor Outlook for 5G
5.6.1.Semiconductor Comparison
5.6.2.Semiconductor Choice Forecast
5.6.3.Semiconductor Forecast (2020-2032) for Power Amplifiers by Technology
5.6.4.Semiconductor Die Area Forecast (2020-2032) for Power Amplifiers by Technology
6.1.1.Air Cavity vs Plastic Overmold Packages
6.1.2.Packaging LDMOS Power Amplifiers
6.1.3.Packaging GaN Power Amplifiers
6.1.4.Sub-6 GHz GaN Power Amplifier Example Structure
6.1.5.LDMOS Power Amplifier Structure
6.1.6.Benchmarking CTE and Thermal Conductivity of Various Packaging Materials
6.1.7.LTCC and HTCC Packages
6.1.8.HTCC Metal-ceramic Package
6.1.9.LTCC RF Transitions in packages
6.1.10.Built-in Cu Slugs in GaN Packages
6.1.11.Current Die Attach Technology for RF GaN PAs
6.1.12.Solder Options and Current Die Attach
6.1.13.Emerging Die Attach Technology for RF GaN PAs
6.1.14.Metal Sintering vs Soldering
6.1.15.Challenges with Ag Sintering
6.1.16.Simplifications to the Manufacturing Process
6.1.17.Nano Particle Ag Sinter
6.1.18.Why Metal Sintering?
6.1.19.Gamechanger? Threats to Ag - Cu Sintering Pastes
6.1.20.Copper Pastes for 5G Antenna
6.1.21.Cu Sinter Materials
6.1.22.Cu Sintering: Characteristics
6.1.23.Reliability of Cu Sintered Joints
6.2.Suppliers of Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.1.Suppliers for Metal Sintering Pastes
6.2.2.Alpha Assembly: Nanoparticle Paste
6.2.3.Properties of Ag Sintered or Epoxy Die Attach Materials
6.2.4.Silver-Sintered Paste Performance
6.2.6.Bando Chemical: Pressure-less Nano Ag Paste
6.2.7.Henkel: Micro and Nanoparticle Paste
6.2.8.Henkel: Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.9.Henkel: Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.10.Heraeus: Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.11.Heraeus: Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.12.Heraeus: Pressure or Pressure-less Pastes
6.2.13.Indium Corp: Quick Ag Pressure-less Sinter Pastes
6.2.14.Kyocera: Nano and Microparticle Paste
6.2.15.Kyocera: Pressure-less Paste
6.2.16.Mitsubishi Materials
6.2.17.NAMICS: Low temperature Ag Sintering Paste
6.2.18.NAMICS: Various Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.19.NAMICS: Ag Sintering Pastes
6.2.20.Nihon Handa: Pressure-less Silver Paste
6.2.21.Heraeus and Nihon Handa Cross License
6.2.22.Nihon Superior: Nano Silver Paste
6.2.23.Ntrium: Ag Sintering Paste
6.2.24.Toyo Chem: Nano Ag Paste
6.2.25.Ag Sinter Process Conditions Summary
6.3.Suppliers of Cu Sintering Pastes
6.3.1.Hitachi: Cu Sintering Paste
6.3.2.Indium Corporation: Nano Copper Paste
6.3.3.Mitsui Mining: Nano Copper Under N2
6.3.4.Mitsui Mining: Nano Copper Sintering Under N2
6.3.5.Mitsui Mining: Cu Sintering Paste
6.3.6.Showa Denko
6.3.7.Cu Sinter Process Conditions Summary
6.4.Automation of Die-Attach
6.4.1.Automating the die attach for 5G power amplifiers
6.4.2.Palomar Technologies Automated Sintering
6.4.3.ASM AMICRA Microtechnologies
6.4.4.BE Semiconductor
6.4.5.Legacy and Incumbency for Device Assembly
6.5.Forecast of Die Attach Materials
6.5.1.Die Attach for Power Amplifiers Forecast
6.5.2.Sintering Die Attach for PA and LNA Forecast
6.5.3.Sintering Market Value Forecast
7.1.Thermal Conductivity of Key Materials in a Package
7.2.2D and 3D Package Architectures
7.3.2D Packages: Impact of System Architecture on Heat Dissipation
7.4.Ag Paste to Dissipate Heat from a 3D Package
7.5.Silver Paste Based Heat Dissipation 'Chimneys' Within Packages
7.6.Silver Paste Based Heat Dissipation 'Chimneys' Within Packages
7.7.Creating Thermal Pathways Using Conductive Inks
8.1.1.Introduction to Thermal Interface Materials (TIM)
8.1.2.Introduction (2)
8.1.3.Key Factors in System Level Performance
8.1.4.Thermal Conductivity vs Thermal Resistance
8.1.5.Bill of Materials and the Importance of Longevity
8.1.6.TIM Considerations
8.1.7.Eight Types of Thermal Interface Material
8.1.8.Properties of Thermal Interface Materials
8.2.TIMs in 5G
8.2.1.Anatomy of a Base Station: Summary
8.2.2.Baseband Processing Unit and Remote Radio Head
8.2.3.Path Evolution from Baseband Unit to Antenna
8.2.4.TIM Types in 5G
8.2.5.Value Proposition for Liquid TIMs
8.3.Addressing EMI and Thermal Challenges in 5G
8.3.1.EMI is More Challenging in 5G
8.3.2.Antenna De-sense
8.3.3.Multifunctional TIMs as a Solution
8.3.4.EMI Gaskets
8.3.6.Schlegel - TIM and EMI
8.3.7.TIM Combined with EMI Shielding Properties
8.4.TIM Suppliers for 5G - Boron Nitride Fillers
8.4.3.Henkel - Liquid TIMs for Data & Telecoms
8.4.5.Laird (DuPont)
8.4.9.TIM Suppliers Targeting 5G Applications
8.4.10.TIM Properties and Players for 5G Infrastructure
8.5.TIMs for Antenna
8.5.1.TIM Example: Samsung 5G Access Point
8.5.2.TIM Example: Samsung Outdoor CPE Unit
8.5.3.TIM Example: Samsung Indoor CPE Unit
8.5.4.TIM Forecast for 5G Antenna by Station Size
8.5.5.TIM Forecast for 5G Antenna by Station Frequency
8.6.TIMs for BBU
8.6.1.The 6 Components of a Baseband Processing Unit
8.6.2.Thermal Material Opportunities for the BBU
8.6.3.Examples of 5G BBUs
8.6.4.TIM in BBUs
8.6.5.BBU Parts I: Main Control Board
8.6.6.BBU Parts II & III: Baseband Processing Board & Transmission Extension Board
8.6.7.BBU Parts IV & V: Radio Interface Board & Satellite-card Board
8.6.8.BBU parts VI: TIM Area in the Power Supply Board
8.6.10.TIM for 5G BBU
8.7.TIMs for 5G Power Supplies
8.7.1.Power Consumption in 5G
8.7.2.Challenges to the 5G Power Supply Industry
8.7.3.The Dawn of Smart Power?
8.7.4.GaN Systems - GaN Power Supply and Wireless Power
8.7.5.Power Consumption Forecast for 5G
8.7.6.TIM Forecast for Power Supplies
8.8.Total TIM Forecasts for 5G
8.8.1.Total TIM Forecast for 5G Stations
8.8.2.Total TIM Forecast for 5G Stations
9.1.Access Points
9.2.Components Affected by Temperature
9.3.Boyd's Take on Thermal Design for an Access Point
9.4.Cradlepoint's Wideband Adapter
9.5.Huawei 5G CPE Unit
9.6.ZTE 5G Wi-Fi router
9.7.Developments for Access Points
10.1.Thermal Throttling
10.2.Early 5G Phones Overheating
10.3.Heat and Dissipation in 5G Smartphones
10.4.Materials Selection
10.5.Heat Pipes/ Vapour Chambers
10.6.Vapour Chambers: OEMs
10.7.5G Modem Suppliers
10.8.Qualcomm's 5G Antenna
10.9.Apple's 5G Delay and Intel withdraw from Market
10.10.Smartphone Cooling Now and in the Future
11.2.Overview of Thermal Management Materials Application Areas
11.3.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy 3
11.4.Use-case: Apple iPhone 5
11.5.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S6
11.6.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S7
11.7.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S6 and S7 TIM Area Estimates
11.8.Use-case: Apple iPhone 7
11.9.Use-case: Apple iPhone X
11.10.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S9
11.11.Galaxy Note 9 Carbon Water Cooling System
11.12.Use-case: Oppo R17
11.13.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S10 and S10e
11.14.Use-case: LG v50 ThinQ 5G
11.15.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S10 5G
11.16.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy Note 10+ 5G
11.17.Use-case: Apple iPhone 12
11.18.Use-case: LG v60 ThinQ 5G
11.19.Use-case: Nubia Red Magic 5G
11.20.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S20 5G
11.21.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy S21 5G
11.22.Use-case: Samsung Galaxy Note 20 Ultra 5G
11.23.Use-case: Huawei Mate 20 X 5G
11.24.Use-case: Sony Xperia Pro
11.25.Use-case: Apple iPhone 13 Pro
11.26.Use-case: Google Pixel 6 Pro
11.27.Smartphone Thermal Material Estimate Summary
11.28.Trends in Smartphone Thermal Material Utilization
11.29.Graphitic Heat Spreaders
11.30.Emerging Advanced Material Solutions
11.31.Insulation Material
11.32.Smartphone Unit Forecast
11.33.Thermal Interface Material and Heat Spreader Forecast in Smartphones
12.1.5G Stations Installed per Year (2020-2032) by Cell Type (macro, micro, pico/femto)
12.2.5G Stations Installed per Year (2020-2032) by Frequency (Sub-6 GHz & mmWave)
12.3.5G Installations by Cell Type and MIMO Size (2020-2032)
12.4.Antenna Elements Forecast (Infrastructure)
12.5.Power Amplifier Forecast by Frequency
12.6.Power Amplifier Forecast by Station Size
12.7.BFIC Forecast by Frequency
12.8.BFIC Forecast by Station Size
12.9.Sub-6 GHz Power Amplifier Forecast by Semiconductor Technology
12.10.mmWave Power Amplifier Forecast by Semiconductor Technology
12.11.Semiconductor Forecast (2020-2032) for Power Amplifiers by Technology
12.12.Semiconductor Die Area Forecast (2020-2032) for Power Amplifiers by Technology
12.13.Die Attach for Power Amplifiers Forecast
12.14.Sintering Die Attach for PA and LNA Forecast
12.15.Sintering Market Value Forecast
12.16.TIM Forecast for 5G Antenna by Station Size
12.17.TIM Forecast for 5G Antenna by Station Frequency
12.18.TIM for 5G BBU
12.19.Power Consumption Forecast for 5G
12.20.TIM Forecast for Power Supplies
12.21.Total TIM Forecast for 5G Stations
12.22.Smartphone Unit Forecast
12.23.Thermal Interface Material and Heat Spreader Forecast in Smartphones

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Slides 416
Forecasts to 2032
Published Feb 2022
ISBN 978 1 913899 89 9

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