Energy Storage Report

2040年までにリチウムイオン電池リサイクルが310億ドルの市場へ成長

リチウムイオン電池リサイクリング:2020-2040年

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2040年までにリチウムイオン電池リサイクリルは310億ドルの市場へと成長します。この調査レポートでは、リチウムイオン電池リサイクリルのプロセスと技術、バリューチェーンおよびリサイクルの経済性、主な業界有力企業ならびにリチウムイオン電池リサイクリルに対する規制や政策に関する包括的かつ徹底した分析を提供しています。地域別、セクター別、バッテリー化学成分および主要な再資源化金属にわたるリチウムイオン電池リサイクルに関する20年に及ぶ市場予測が提供します。
With the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), the demand for Li-ion batteries will grow significantly in the coming decades. In the meanwhile, there are increasing concerns over raw material supplies especially rare metals such as cobalt. Recycling provides a crucial solution to raw material supply insecurity and price fluctuations. Through recovering critical raw materials from Li-ion batteries, manufacturers can shield themselves from supply disruptions and also generate additional revenue streams.
 
Today quite a few spent Li-ion batteries from consumer electronics (e.g. laptops and mobile phones) are never recycled. Different from consumer electronics batteries, it is much easier to build the collection network for EV batteries because when they can't be utilized in the vehicles anymore, they need to be handled by professionals. In many countries, the extended producer responsibility (EPR) requires the OEMs to take care of retired batteries. As EV batteries beginning to reach their end-of-life, we will see an exponential growth of retired EV batteries available for recycling in the coming decades. From 2025 onwards, retired EV batteries will exceed consumer electronics batteries and dominate the recycling market, bringing huge value opportunities across the value chain.
 
One of the hot discussions around end-of-life EV batteries is whether they should be recycled to obtain the raw materials or repurposed for a second-life in alternative applications such as stationary energy storage. Whether retired EV batteries are repurposed or not, they will need to be recycled anyway in the end. In theory, recycling is the least sustainable measure in circular economy and should be the last step when the batteries couldn't be utilised anymore. In practice, however, many more factors are considered. Technologically, repurposing a second-life for retired EV batteries won't have any effect on its recycling - it will delay the recycling process and thus have an impact on the logistics and economics of recycling. In this report, we discuss the economics of Li-ion battery recycling and the key factors that might impact its value.
 
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the Li-ion battery recycling value chain from a lifecycle perspective: from mining and processing, to battery materials and production, battery usage, throughout to recycling (or second-life and recycling). The key market players in Li-ion battery recycling are also analysed in the report. We found that several key issues need to be addressed for efficient recycling of Li-ion batteries. Battery collection is one of the most important prerequisites for efficient Li-ion battery recycling. Without an efficient battery collection network, the low volume of batteries to be recycled or high cost of collection could damage the economics of recycling. Another challenge is the lack of design for recycling that make battery disassembly and sorting costly and time-consuming.
 
While the easier collection and sheer scale of EV batteries provides a huge opportunity it also comes with various technical and economic challenges. The numerous designs and high voltage of EV battery packs mean safe disassembly will remain a complex and time-consuming stage. Furthermore, the $/kWh value embedded within EV batteries will be lower compared to consumer electronics batteries, meaning recyclers will have to extract more material at higher purities and efficiencies if they want to break even on their recycling process. The report provides an overview and analysis of the main stages of Li-ion recycling processes, including mechanical treatments, pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy. The techniques are evaluated and compared, and examples of processes used by companies and described in patents are also presented. In addition to providing an understanding of the processes used and being developed for recycling, the report will provide insight into the materials required and therefore the opportunities from this industry.
 
IDTechEx find that the majority of recycling capacity is currently located in China, though there is increasing interest from other countries. A global analysis of companies capable of recycling Li-ion batteries is provided, allowing for insights into geographic distribution of companies, recycling capacity, industry involvement and interest, process/technology preference and stage of commercialisation.
 
According to IDTechEx forecasts, by 2040 global Li-ion battery recycling market will be worth $31 billion annually.
 
In this report, we provide a twenty-year market forecast on Li-ion battery recycling in both volume and revenues. The market forecasts come with a set of breakdowns by region, sector (consumer electronics, stationary energy storage and EVs), battery chemistry as well as the key metals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper and aluminium) recovered. Analysis of each key markets - China, Europe and North America will be provided with insights on their market size and value. China is the largest market for Li-ion battery recycling: by 2040 over 50%, or 4.3 million tonnes of the world's spent Li-ion batteries will be recycled in China. And although in the early 2020s, most Li-ion battery available for recycling come from consumer electronics, from 2025 onwards, the electric vehicle sector will dominate and significantly drive the Li-ion battery recycling market.
 
 
 
Forecast of global Li-ion battery recycling market by region (left) and by sector (right)
Source: IDTechEx
 
 
Key issues addressed/takeaways from this report:
  • Overview of Li-ion battery market
  • Current market landscape of Li-ion battery recycling
  • Comprehensive analysis and examples of key recycling processes and technologies
  • Regulations and policies on Li-ion battery recycling
  • Analysis of the Li-ion battery recycling value chain and economics of recycling
  • Detailed twenty-year market forecasts on Li-ion battery recycling in both volume and market value (revenues); granular market forecasts are provided by major regions, sectors, battery chemistries and key metals recovered
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アイディーテックエックス株式会社 (IDTechEx日本法人)
担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Drivers for recycling Li-ion batteries
1.2.LIB recycling process overview
1.3.Pyrometallurgical recycling
1.4.Hydrometallurgical recycling
1.5.Direct recycling
1.6.Recycling techniques compared
1.7.EV battery recycling value chain
1.8.When will Li-ion batteries be recycled?
1.9.Recycling or second life?
1.10.Is recycling Li-ion batteries economic?
1.11.Economic analysis of battery recycling
1.12.Impact of battery chemistries on recycling economics
1.13.Recycling value by cathode chemistry
1.14.Sector involvement
1.15.Commercial recycling breakdown
1.16.State of recycling players
1.17.Recycling market
1.18.Global capacity of Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040 (GWh)
1.19.Global capacity of Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040 (GWh) - summary
1.20.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by region (tonnes)
1.21.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by region (tonnes) - summary
1.22.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by chemistry (tonnes)
1.23.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by chemistry (tonnes) - summary
1.24.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling by chemistry in major regions
1.25.Global recycled metals from Li-ion batteries 2020-2040 (tonnes)
1.26.Global recycled metals from Li-ion batteries 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
1.27.Global Li-ion battery recycling market value forecast 2020-2040 ($ million)
1.28.Global Li-ion battery recycling market value forecast 2020-2040 ($ million) - summary
2.INTRODUCTION AND LI-ION BATTERY MARKET OVERVIEW
2.1.What is a Li-ion battery?
2.2.Li-ion cathode overview
2.3.Li-ion anode overview
2.4.Cycle life and End-of-life
2.5.Why batteries fail?
2.6.Li-ion degradation complexity
2.7.What happens to end-of-life Li-ion batteries
2.8.When will Li-ion batteries be recycled?
2.9.The Li-ion supply chain
2.10.Demand for Li-ion shifting
2.11.Market overview
2.12.Drivers for High-Nickel Cathode
2.13.Silicon Anodes - Mergers, Acquisitions, and Investments
2.14.Battery technology trends
2.15.Battery technology trends beyond Li-ion
2.16.The elements used in Li-ion batteries
2.17.Supply and demand overview
2.18.Potential for raw material shortage
2.19.Carbon emissions from electric vehicles
2.20.Sustainability of Li-ion materials
2.21.Questionable mining practice
2.22.Drivers and restraints
3.RECYCLING REGULATION AND POLICY
3.1.What is the circular economy?
3.2.China is preparing for EV battery recycling
3.3.Regulatory framework for battery recycling in China
3.4.The EV battery traceability management system in China
3.5.The battery recycling and traceability management platform
3.6.Battery recycling included in China's solid waste law
3.7.EU critical raw materials
3.8.EU Battery Directive
3.9.European batteries Alliance
3.10.EU battery and end-of-life vehicle directives
3.11.Recovery targets
3.12.Extended Producer Responsibility
3.13.USA
3.14.US Critical Minerals Act
3.15.DoE battery recycling funding
3.16.Transportation
4.LI-ION RECYCLING PROCESSES AND TECHNOLOGIES
4.1.1.Recycling history - Pb-acid
4.1.2.Pb-acid batteries
4.1.3.Pb-acid vs Li-ion cost breakdown
4.1.4.Lessons to be learned
4.1.5.Recycling alkaline cells
4.1.6.Drivers for recycling Li-ion batteries 1
4.1.7.Drivers for recycling Li-ion batteries 2
4.1.8.Constraints on recycling Li-ion batteries 1
4.1.9.LIB recycling process overview
4.1.10.LIB recycling overview
4.1.11.Is there enough global resource?
4.1.12.Material content
4.1.13.Waste material streams
4.1.14.BEV Li-ion recycling mass flow
4.2.Pre-treatments: mechanical, communication, separation
4.2.1.Recycling different Li-ion batteries
4.2.2.Recycling different Li-ion batteries
4.2.3.EV LIB discharge and disassembly
4.2.4.Lack of pack standardisation
4.2.5.LIB disassembly
4.2.6.Mechanical processing and separation
4.2.7.Mechanical processing and separation process
4.2.8.Recycling pre-treatments and processing
4.2.9.Sieving
4.2.10.Recupyl mechanical separation flow diagram
4.2.11.Gravity separation
4.2.12.Eddy current separation
4.2.13.Froth flotation
4.2.14.Mechanical separation flow diagram
4.3.Pyrometallurgy
4.3.1.Pyrometallurgical recycling
4.3.2.Pyrometallurgical recycling
4.3.3.Pyrometallurgical recycling strengths/weaknesses
4.3.4.Umicore recycling flow diagram
4.4.Hydrometallurgy and material recovery
4.4.1.Hydrometallurgical recycling
4.4.2.Hydrometallurgical recycling strengths/weaknesses
4.4.3.Recycling example via hydrometallurgy
4.4.4.Recupyl recycling flow diagram
4.4.5.Electrometallurgy
4.4.6.Precipitation
4.4.7.Solvent extraction
4.4.8.Direct recycling
4.4.9.Direct recycling strengths/weaknesses
4.4.10.Cathode recovery and rejuvenation
4.4.11.Opportunities in Li-ion recycling
4.5.Recycling technology conclusions
4.5.1.Trends in Li-ion recycling
4.5.2.Trends in Li-ion recycling
4.5.3.Recycling methods map
4.5.4.Li-ion production chain/loop
4.5.5.Designed for recycling
4.5.6.Recycling technology conclusions
4.5.7.Recycling techniques compared
4.5.8.Academic research
4.5.9.Academic research by region
5.VALUE CHAIN AND BUSINESS MODELS FOR LI-ION BATTERY RECYCLING
5.1.Why Li-ion batteries fail?
5.2.What happens to end-of-life Li-ion batteries
5.3.Overview of the Li-ion battery recycling value chain
5.4.Closed-loop value chain of electric vehicle batteries
5.5.EV battery recycling value chain
5.6.The lifecycle view of EV battery recycling value chain
5.7.When will Li-ion batteries be recycled?
5.8.Is recycling Li-ion batteries economic?
5.9.Economic analysis of battery recycling
5.10.Impact of battery chemistries on recycling economics
5.11.Recycling value by cathode chemistry
5.12.Recycling or second life?
5.13.Recycling or second life: techno-economic analysis (1)
5.14.Recycling or second life: techno-economic analysis (2)
5.15.Recycling or second life: complementary information
5.16.Impact of recycling on Li-ion battery cost reduction
5.17.Where are the retired Li-ion batteries?
5.18.Reverse logistics: Li-ion battery collection
5.19.Case study of a EV battery collection network in China
5.20.Battery sorting and disassembling
5.21.Design for recycling
6.RECYCLING MARKET OVERVIEW
6.1.LIB recycling market
6.2.Interest in recycling across the value chain
6.3.Location of Li-ion recycling companies
6.4.European recycling
6.5.Asia-Pacific (exc. China) recycling
6.6.Chinese recycling
6.7.North American recycling
6.8.Sector involvement
6.9.Recycling commercialisation stages
6.10.Commercial recycling breakdown
6.11.State of recycling players
6.12.Global recycling capacity
6.13.Conclusions
7.COMPANY PROFILES
7.1.Northvolt's Revolt recycling program
7.2.BMW's strategic partnerships for EV battery recycling
7.3.Renault's circular economy efforts for Li-ion batteries
7.4.Volkswagen plans for retired EV batteries
7.5.Volkswagen's in-house Li-ion battery recycling plant
7.6.Fortum
7.7.Fortum acquired Crisolteq for battery recycling
7.8.Fortum intensify collaboration with BASF and Nornickel
7.9.Umicore
7.10.Duesenfeld
7.11.Duesenfeld process overview
7.12.Accurec
7.13.Akkuser Oy
7.14.4R Energy
7.15.4R Energy's Namie plant
7.16.Sumitomo
7.17.Sumitomo processes
7.18.JX Nippon Metal Mining
7.19.GHTech
7.20.Anhua Taisen
7.21.Tesla's 'circular Gigafactory'
7.22.Li-cycle
7.23.Li-cycle business model
7.24.Li-cycle process overview
7.25.American Manganese
7.26.OnTo Technology
7.27.Farasis
7.28.Farasis recycling process patent
7.29.Envirostream
8.MARKET FORECASTS
8.1.Methodology explained
8.2.Global capacity of Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040 (GWh)
8.3.Global capacity of Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040 (GWh) - summary
8.4.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by region (tonnes)
8.5.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by region (tonnes) - summary
8.6.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by chemistry (tonnes)
8.7.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling 2020-2040: by chemistry (tonnes) - summary
8.8.Global Li-ion batteries available for recycling by chemistry in major regions
8.9.Global recycled metals from Li-ion batteries 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.10.Global recycled metals from Li-ion batteries 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.11.Global Li-ion battery recycling market value forecast 2020-2040 ($ million)
8.12.Global Li-ion battery recycling market value forecast 2020-2040 ($ million) - summary
8.13.China
8.13.1.Capacity of retired Li-ion batteries 2020-2040: China
8.13.2.Capacity of retired Li-ion batteries by sector 2020-2040: China (GWh) - summary
8.13.3.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in China: by sector 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.13.4.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in China: by sector 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.13.5.China Li-ion battery recycling market share by sector
8.13.6.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in China: by battery chemistry 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.13.7.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in China: by battery chemistry 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.13.8.China Li-ion battery recycling market share by cathode
8.13.9.Recycled metals from Li-ion batteries in China
8.13.10.Recycled metals from Li-ion batteries in China (tonnes) - summary
8.14.Europe
8.14.1.Capacity of retired Li-ion batteries 2020-2040: Europe
8.14.2.Capacity of retired Li-ion batteries 2020-2040 (tonnes): Europe - summary
8.14.3.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in Europe: by sector 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.14.4.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in Europe: by sector 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.14.5.Market share of Li-ion battery recycling market by sector: Europe
8.14.6.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in Europe: by battery chemistry 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.14.7.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in Europe: by battery chemistry 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.14.8.Recycled metals from Li-ion batteries in Europe
8.14.9.Recycled metals from Li-ion batteries in Europe (tonnes) - summary
8.15.North America
8.15.1.Capacity of retired Li-ion batteries 2020-2040: North America
8.15.2.Capacity of retired Li-ion batteries 2020-2040 (tonnes): North America - summary
8.15.3.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in North America: by sector 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.15.4.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in North America: by sector 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.15.5.Market share of Li-ion battery recycling market by sector: North America
8.15.6.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in North America: by battery chemistry 2020-2040 (tonnes)
8.15.7.Li-ion batteries available for recycling in North America: by battery chemistry 2020-2040 (tonnes) - summary
8.15.8.Recycled metals from Li-ion batteries in North America
8.15.9.Recycled metals from Li-ion batteries in North America (tonnes) - summary
 

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レポート概要

スライド 243
フォーキャスト 2040
発行日 Jun 2020
 

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