The 152 page new IDTechEx report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030" does not pull its punches.
Its densely packed new infograms and forecasts of both technology and sales clearly present what are often surprising results. They come from new facts-based analysis over 100 participating companies, conferences, databases, interviews and more by its globe-trotting PhD level researchers.
There are going to be some dramatic winners and losers in all this. Amazing new technologies are in the pipeline. The report explains the significance of such things as distributed thrust with up to 30 thrusters, ionic thrust, rise-and-glide, cryogenic fuel cell, superconducting motors and powertrain and other routes to even airliners going pure electric. For example, grasp how power electronics, regenerative propellers and solar/ supercapacitor bodywork will assist.
This is a story of three options for new manned electrically-driven aircraft. Small fixed-wing pure-electric is strongly trading now. Larger hybrid and pure electric aircraft up to regional aircraft will be with us within ten years - a huge addressable market. The wild card is vertical-takeoff pure-electric aircraft as air taxis and personal aircraft with huge challenges and opportunities assessed.
The IDTechEx report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030" has a comprehensive Executive Summary and Conclusions with ten primary conclusions then electric powertrain types explained with timelines by IDTechEx and leading players. See their future evolution and how the top down approach of More Electric Aircraft MEA contributes. Addressable markets are scoped such as pilot training need by region, the number of elderly Cessnas urgently needing replacement plus the long range and the city and airport VTOL opportunity. The VTOL market barriers and costs are examined with FAA and other views. 42 key players are compared here. Projects are then examined for payback, geography, range by type and years ahead and more. Learn motor types by project and kW/kg, technology timelines to 2050, adoption dynamics 2020-2030. When will the killer blow of lower up-front price happen by type/ year 2020-2040? See Siemens, NASA, Airbus, Uber and IDTechEx projections to 2040 for everything from regulations to adoption of new principles of flight. For 2019-2030 see the new IDTechEx number and value market forecasts by year for seven categories of electric manned aircraft with assumptions and explanation.
The Introduction then examines powertrain options in more detail and gives the complexity roadmap as influenced by electrification, in-mold electronics, wireless boards and more. What new functions get added? What are the many options for energy harvesting at both aircraft and board level? See emissions, regulations and legislative drivers 2020-2040 and benchmark land transport.
Chapter 3 Technologies explores progress to the end game of energy independence. Energy storage, batteries, motors (ten trends), power electronics and energy harvesting get detailed treatment with many examples.
Chapter 4 gives detail and analysis on ten important developers and manufacturers and their views and many programs involving both startlingly new technology and new electric aircraft. Throughout the report there are many examples of recent activity, interviews and intentions with many illustrations making it all very easy to grasp from battery reduction to technology transfer arriving from drones and Tesla cars. Only IDTechEx gives this big picture with technical depth in its report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030". The future has arrived and traditional aircraft companies not paying attention will be in danger.