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Electric Vehicles Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2005-2015

Updated May 2005
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Unique Report
This report reveals that the EV industry is large and prosperous with $31.1 billion sales globally in 2005 at ex factory prices excluding electric toys. It is growing strongly and, by 2015, the EV market will have grown to 7.3 times its value in 2005. However, much of this growth will not derive from today's technologies or take place within today's leading applicational sectors.
Tracking the Changes
Uniquely this report tracks the discontinuities and forecasts EV markets from 2005 to 2015 with indications out to 2050 and many new case studies to bring the figures alive. The ten year forecasts are split into Heavy Industrial, Light Industrial/ Commercial, Vehicles for the Disabled, Two-wheel, Golf Car & Electric Caddy, Cars, Mobile Robots, Military, Toys, Marine, Mining & other. In each case, these ten year forecasts are split into Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell versions. The report analyses leading suppliers and technologies in each sector, including historical trends and financial performance. Such a look at the big picture is essential given that the activities of an increasing number of manufacturers and service providers span many applicational sectors and several technologies, leveraging that strength.
Identifying the Leaders and their Future
This fascinating and rapidly changing business constantly springs surprises. The market leader has a massive $3.7 billion in sales of EVs and associated services. This is over three times the EV related sales of its nearest competitor and its program of new models and new EV technologies across many applicational sectors makes its lead unassailable in the near future. Yet this company is not significantly active in the most profitable EV sector today, or some of the fastest growing sectors.
Prosperity by Innovation in the Market
Over 1000 companies share the rest of the EV business and many are well positioned to prosper. The exceptional amount of innovation in the Marine and Military sectors, for example, will benefit many imaginative participants. The massive markets emerging in China for many types of EV will be directed to local participants in the main. That will create highly competitive global businesses as a result. Legal push will drive some sectors. All this is explained.
Detailed Analysis
The report has detailed 98 tables and 87 figures and considerable analysis, with many new and planned products described. It identifies where the profits are today and will be in future and explains why. Milestones to 2050 are listed, from product launches to company sales targets and planned technology changes.
The author is Dr Peter Harrop, with 15 years of experience in the subject, backed by the IDTechEx team of researchers. He has been involved in analyses and forecasts of the EV industry for the Financial Times, Footnote Analysis and IDTechEx and has acted as expert witness on the subject in the High Court in London. The report is essential reading to anyone studying or participating in this vibrant business.
Table of Contents
1.1.Definitions and scope of the report
1.1.1.Case Study: The improved Toyota fuel cell FCHV Bus2 in 2005
1.1.2.Technical features
1.1.3.History of EVs
1.1.4.Organisations involved in the EV industry
1.1.5.The EV value chain
1.1.6.Benefit of a broad definition
1.1.7.On-road vs off-road – not a clear distinction
1.2.Pure electric vehicles
1.3.Hybrid electric vehicles
1.3.1.Pros and cons
1.4.Competing technologies and their targets
1.5.Applicational sectors
1.5.1.Robots in many forms
1.6.Reasons for adoption of EVs
1.6.1.Replacing ICE for reasons other than pollution
1.6.2.Replacing human effort
1.6.3.Making new things possible
1.6.4.Electric fork lifts are not what they seem
1.6.5.Do not major on pollution if you want to succeed
1.6.6.Cost over life
1.7.Profitability of EV businesses by type – results of our major survey
1.7.1.Applicational sector and product positioning are key
1.7.2.Profitability of EV manufacture by sector
1.7.3.Profitability vs barriers to entry
1.7.4.Profitability vs strength of consumer proposition
1.7.5.EVs as an enabling technology
1.7.6.Profitability of EVs
1.7.7.Profitability as a function of business size
1.7.8.Profitability of EV component manufacturers
1.7.9.Size bias of profitability analysis
1.8.Basis of forecasts of market value
2.2.Market drivers
2.3.The major players shakeout
2.4.Profiles of some leaders and potential leaders
2.4.1.Linde, Germany 2004 report, 2005-7 plans
2.4.2.Toyota Industrial, Japan/Europe 2005
2.5.Listing of manufacturers
2.6.Market size
2.7.Market forecasts by technology 2005 to 2015
2.8.Future challenges and opportunities
3.1.Vehicles covered in this chapter
3.1.1.Light industrial and commercial
3.1.3.Case Study: eMercury taxis in 2005
3.1.4.Heavy and light
3.1.5.Major subcategories
3.1.6.Automatic Guided Vehicles (AGVs)
3.1.7.AGV people movers
3.1.8.Airport EVs - the largest category in light industrial
3.1.9.Commercial on-road vehicles
3.2.Market drivers
3.2.1.Light duty
3.2.2.Heavy duty
3.3.Low cost light industrial and commercial EVs
3.3.1.Very small buses
3.4.Mid-priced light industrial EVs
3.4.1.QEV70 delivery vehicle
3.4.2.Airport EVs
3.4.3.Military demand
3.4.4.Sub-optimal supply
3.4.5.Small orders
3.4.6.Future trends
3.5.High priced industrial and commercial EVs
3.5.1.Large buses in the US and China
3.5.2.ISE Research in 2005
3.6.Market projections 2005-2015 for commercial and high cost light industrial EVs
3.7.Listing of manufacturers
3.8.Overall market projections for light industrial and commercial EVs
3.8.1.Overall market by unit cost
3.8.2.Markets by technology 2005 to 2015
4.1.The sector with the most compelling and enduring need
4.2.The demographic time-bomb
4.2.1.Ageing population and the dependent elderly
4.2.2.Laws make mobility easier
4.3.Types of mobility vehicle
4.3.1.Growth by new market segments
4.4.Market drivers
4.4.1.Geographical distribution
4.4.2.Needs creating new segments
4.4.3.What is driving regional differences?
4.4.4.Case Study: Pride Mobility, USA
4.5.Listing of manufacturers
4.6.Market forecasts by technology and region, 2005 to 2015
4.6.1.Growth by creating new markets
4.6.2.Markets by region
4.6.3.Markets by technology
5.1.1.Case Study: Dana Corporation Willy scooter
5.1.2.Case Study: Peugeot Quark quad bike
5.1.3.Case Study: Systrel, Eberli and Associates – Mobilec moped
5.2.Market drivers
5.2.1.Bicycles and electric bicycles
5.2.2.Massive boost to 2 wheelers in China
5.2.3.Boost for 2 wheelers in Taiwan
5.2.4.The big potential- bicycles
5.2.5.Weak market drivers in the West but some changes
5.2.6.Hybrid motorcycles
5.2.7.Case Study: Segway
5.2.8.Case Study Rietti undercuts Segway
5.2.13.Power system makers for electric bikes, pedelecs and small E-scooters
5.3.Market forecasts, 2005 to 2015
5.3.1.Overall market
5.3.2.Fuel cells important one day?
5.3.3.Fast growth in China
5.3.4.Massive pollution in China
5.3.5.Fundamentals are good
5.3.6.Battery projections
5.3.7.Hybrid projections
5.3.8.Fuel Cell projections
5.3.9.Case Study: ENV fuel cell motorcycle 2005
5.3.10.Honda FC Stack fuel cell motorcycle
5.3.11.Case Study: Vectrix fuel cell “electric hybrid” scooter in 2005
6.2.Market drivers
6.2.1.Golf course creation
6.2.2.Secondary market - golf cars not used for golf
6.3.Listing of manufacturers
6.4.Market forecasts by technology and region 2005 to 2015
6.4.1.Golf EV market
6.4.2.No more growth
6.4.3.Low prices
6.4.4.Turnkey success
7.1.Types of electric car 2005-2015
7.2.Plug in hybrids and fuel cells are coming.
7.3.Ultra environmental diesel hybrids in 2020?
7.4.Nissan hybrids 2005
7.5.Market drivers
7.5.1.Artificial pricing makes volumes uncertain
7.5.2.Factors correlating with profit
7.5.3.Imaginative market positioning
7.6.Companies and launch programs
7.6.2.Exponential growth of hybrids
7.6.3.Case Study: Toyota Motor Co., Japan
7.6.4.Case Study: ZAP
7.7.Listing of manufacturers
7.8.Market size and trends 2005-2015
7.8.1.Manufacturing market projection
7.8.2.Breakdown by type and manufacturer
7.8.3.Neighbourhood vehicles
7.8.4.Taiwan tries to leapfrog - but not yet
7.8.6.What will not happen
7.8.7.Forecasts by technology
8.1.1.Case Study: Subeo Gemini submarine
8.2.Sales by region
8.2.1.Total market
8.2.3.Large military submarines excluded
8.3.Commonality with land EVs
8.3.1.Grants for land and water
8.3.2.Effect of land EV manufacturers entering marine
8.4.Market drivers
8.4.2.Pollution laws
8.4.3.Bionic Dolphin – the power of imaginative design
8.4.4.Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs)
8.4.5.Case Study: AUVs at the Florida Atlantic University
8.4.6.Hybrid ships after 2010
8.5.Leisure and tourist submarines
8.6.Manufacturers by country and product
8.7.Selling prices
8.8.Marine EV sales projections, 2005 to 2015
8.8.1.Surface and subsurface boat markets
8.8.2.Projections by technology, 2005 to 2015
8.8.3.Projections by under-over water craft, 2005 to 2015
8.8.4.Projections by region
9.2.Market drivers
9.2.1.Case Study: Toyota at Expo 2005
9.3.Contents of exhibition
9.4.Listing of manufacturers by country and product
9.5.Market size and trends
9.5.1.Mobile robots
9.5.2.Case Study: The Electrolux Automower
9.5.3.Rescue robots in Germany
9.5.4.Case Study: Robots on Mars
9.5.5.Technology and Mission Relevance
9.5.7.Other leisure
9.5.8.Research and hobbyist
9.6.Market forecasts by sector and technology, 2005 to 2015
10.1.1.Examples of military EVs
10.1.2.Case Study: UQM unmanned combat vehicle
10.1.3.Case Study: URBIE reconnaissance robot
10.1.4.Case Study: Micro Robot Explorer – Spider Bot
10.1.5.Case Study General Motors fuel cell Silverado truck
APPENDIX - Fuel cell EVs
1.1.Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
1.2.Wants well satisfied by EVs
1.3.Study shows Japanese battery dominance
2.1.Financial results of Linde Material Handling Division for financial year 2004
2.2.Twenty examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
2.3.Percentage split of global manufacture of heavy industrial trucks
2.4.Distribution of trade volume for heavy industrial EVs
2.5.Global league table of powered industrial truck manufacturers 2005 by value of sales
2.6.The ranking in 2005 for electric industrial vehicle sales
2.7.Heavy industrial EV global market at ex factory prices 2005 to 2015
2.8.Heavy industrial pure EV (battery-only) manufacturing market projection 2005 to 2015
2.9.Hybrid heavy industrial EVs 2005 to 2015
2.10.Fuel cell heavy industrial EVs 2005 to 2015
3.1.Global market for low-cost light industrial EVs 2005 to 2015 by numbers, value and technology
3.2.Specification of the new QEV70 delivery vehicle
3.3.Global market for medium cost light industrial EVs 2005 to 2015 by numbers and value
3.4.Global market for medium cost light industrial EVs 2005 to 2015 by technology
3.5.Global market for commercial and high cost light industrial vehicles by value and numbers, 2005 to 2015
3.6.Global market for commercial and high cost light industrial vehicles by technology percentage split, 2005 to 2015
3.7.132 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs by country and examples of their products
3.8.Overall market projection for global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs by numbers by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.9.Overall market projection for global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs by value by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.10.Global unit numbers (‘000) of hybrid light industrial and commercial EVs by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.11.Global unit numbers (‘000) of battery-only light industrial and commercial EVs by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.12.Global unit numbers (000) of fuel cell light industrial and commercial EVs by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.13.Global value ($ millions) of hybrid light industrial and commercial EVs by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.14.Global value ($ million) of battery-only light industrial and commercial EVs by price range, 2005 to 2015
3.15.Global value ($ million) of fuel cell light industrial and commercial EVs by price range, 2005 to 2015
4.1.Statistics relevant to the challenge to society caused by ageing population
4.2.Evolution of three families of powered vehicles for the disabled
4.3.Evolution of powered wheelchairs for the severely disabled, usually with carer nearby, 1980 to 2010
4.4.Evolution of power chairs 1980 to 2010
4.5.Evolution of scooters for the disabled 1980 to 2010
4.6.The continental percentage split of markets for vehicles for the disabled by value in 2005
4.7.The percentage split of market for vehicles for the disabled by country within Europe
4.8.The numbers in thousands of scooters plus power chairs that will be sold in Europe 2005 to 2015.
4.9.Features of mobility vehicles that may hold up the price by offering more in future
4.10.The percentage distribution of manufacture between Taiwan and Mainland China by value of vehicles for the disabled 2005 and 2015
4.11.Market for EVs for the disabled by geographical region, ex works pricing and percentage split in 2005 and 2015
4.12.Eighty examples of manufacturers of EVs for the disabled by country
4.13.Number projections for global sales of existing vs radically new types of design and use of disabled EVs 2005 to 2015
4.14.Global manufacturing market by number and value in 2005 to 2015
5.1.Specification of the experimental Peugeot Quark fuel cell quad bike.
5.2.Global population of bicycles, in billions, by region
5.3.Sales of electric bicycles in Japan 1994 to 2005
5.4.Sales of electric bicycles in China 1998 to 2003
5.5.Global sales of electric bicycles 2001 to 2005
5.6.Global sales of electric bicycles 2002 by region
5.7.69 examples of manufacturers of two wheel Evs and electric quad bikes
5.8.Largest suppliers of electric bicycles by number (not in order)
5.9.Supply of electric bicycles in Europe 2000/2001 by number, maker and battery chemistry
5.10.Listing of major light electric scooter makers and importers in Europe
5.11.Sales of two wheelers in USA by number, maker and battery chemistry (12 months to 21/8/2001)
5.12.The two wheeler brands offered on the Japanese domestic market by market share and battery chemistry
5.13.34 sources of two wheelers in China by brand, region and battery chemistry
5.14.Listing of light electric scooter makers in China (all presently use lead-acid battery chemistry)
5.15.Two wheeler EV system makers by battery chemistry
5.16.Manufacturing market projections for two wheel EVs at ex works prices, 2005 to 2015
5.17.Global market for battery driven two wheel vehicles, at ex factory prices, 2005 to 2015
5.18.Global market for hybrid two wheel vehicles, at ex factory prices, 2005 to 2015
5.19.Global market for fuel cell two wheel vehicles, at ex factory prices, 2005 to 2015
6.1.15 examples of golf EV manufacturers
6.2.Manufacturing market projection for golf EVs, all are battery-only vehicles (cars plus caddies), 2005 to 2015
6.3.Geographical split of golf EV sales by value 2000, 2005 and 2015
7.1.Types of EV car and technology 2005
7.2.Types of EV car and technology 2015
7.3.Objectives of the Ricardo Qinetiq diesel hybrid being designed in 2005 vs today’s Prius gasoline hybrid
7.4.Nissan ranking of reasons for rejecting pure EV cars
7.5.Examples of hybrids in the market or made in small numbers 2005
7.6.Examples of hybrid launches 2006- 2009
7.7.Toyota sales of EVs, 1999 to 2003
7.8.Estimated Toyota sales of EVs 2004-2007
7.9.57 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of EV cars
7.10.Manufacturing market projection for EV cars, prices ex factory, 2005 to 2015
7.11.Global sales of Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs) and new or used golf cars serving that purpose in 2005 and 2015
7.12.Global hybrid EV car sales at ex factory prices, 2005 to 2015
7.13.Global battery-only EV car sales at ex factory prices, 2005 to 2015
7.14.Global fuel cell EV car sales at ex factory prices, 2005 to 2015
8.1.43 examples of manufacturers of EV electric water craft
8.2.Indicative prices for marine EVs in 2005
8.3.Marine EV manufacturing global market 2005 to 2015
8.4.Global manufacturing market for hybrid water craft 2005 to 2015
8.5.Global manufacturing market for battery-only electric water craft 2005 to 2015
8.6.Global manufacturing market for fuel cell electric water craft 2005 to 2015
8.7.Percentage of sales by value of underwater vs overwater EVs, 2005 to 2015
8.8.Value of EV marine craft manufacturing market by region, 2005 to 2015, in percentages
9.1.30 examples of manufacturers of mobile robots, toy, leisure, research or hobbyist EVs by country and product
9.2.Specification and pricing of planned two-legged mobile robots
9.3.Global EV manufacturing market for mobile robots, battery-only, 2005 to 2015
9.4.Global EV manufacturing market for mining and others, 2005 to 2015
9.5.Global EV manufacturing market for mining and others, battery-only EVs, 2005 to 2015
9.6.Global EV manufacturing market for mining and others, fuel cell EVs, 2005 to 2015
9.7.Global EV manufacturing market for toy EVs, 2005 to 2015, all pure electric
10.1.Global EV manufacturing market for military, 2005 to 2015
10.2.Global military hybrid EV sales 2005 to 2015
10.3.Global military battery-only EV market, 2005 to 2015
10.4.Global military fuel cell EV market, 2005 to 2015
10.5.Suppliers of military EVs
1.1.The Toyota FCHV Bus2
1.2.Electric vehicle value chain
1.3.Competing electric drive train technologies and their targets by market sector
1.4.Percent of EV manufacturing operations that are profitable by sector
1.5.Percent of EV service operations that are profitable by sector
2.1.A typical Toyota industrial EV in 2005.
2.2.The new Crown ST/SX 300 series walkie stacker
3.1.The new E150 battery driven pure EV delivery vehicle from VXL Automotive in the UK.
3.2.The new TXII hybrid London taxi developed by LTI
3.3.Frog AGV people mover EV
3.4.Two buses in Brazil using the locally made Eletra hybrid power trains.
3.5.Electric bus in Nepal
3.6.The new QEV70 delivery vehicle
3.7.Gasoline hybrid buses being sold using ISE drive trains.
3.8.The first new gasoline hybrid 40-foot urban transit bus in Southern California delivered by New Flyer Industries
3.9.A pure EV bus in Italy using fast charge batteries
4.1.Percentage of dependent elderly 1970 to 2040
4.2.Pride Jazzy – making new things possible
4.3.Stair climbing function of the iBOT
4.4.Balance function of the iBOT
4.5.Shoprider microscooter fully
4.6.Shoprider dismantled for storage
4.7.Shoprider transport and storage
4.8.Shoprider Milan
4.9.Shoprider Sunrunner
5.1.The Dana Corporation Willy scooter powered by fuel cell and battery.
5.2.The new prototype Peugeot Quark pure EV quad bike
5.3.Segway Human Transporter
5.4.Segway Human Transporter at rest
5.5.Segway Human Transporter with carriers
5.6.Rietti two wheel scooter
5.7.Electricmoto motorcross motorcycle by blade
5.8.Two wheel electric scooter by Electric Vehicle Technologies
5.9.Two wheel electric scooter by Electric Vehicle Technologies
5.10.EVT “Survivor” MD70EMT bike
5.11.EVT Scooter
5.12.Viento Scooter by Electric Cycle Company
5.13.Lepton Scooter
5.14.Electric Vehicle Technologies’ All Terrain Vehicle (ATV)
5.15.The ENV fuel cell motorcycle
5.16.The ENV removable 1 KW PEM fuel cell
5.17.Experimental Honda fuel cell powered scooter
5.18.The new Vectrix “electric hybrid” fuel cell scooter 2005
6.1.Global golf car market and allied light industrial vehicle market in 2003
6.2.Latest pure electric golf car from Ingersoll Rand
6.3.Latest and all terrain vehicle from Ingersoll Rand
7.1.An experimental pure EV fuel cell car from Hyundai
7.2.Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type
7.3.The Ford Escape hybrid SUV now in production
7.4.The Nissan Altima hybrid car.
7.5.Toyota CS&S concept of a high performance hybrid sports car.
7.6.ZAP Worldcar made in China
8.1.A Subeo Gemini submarine
8.2.The Subeo Gemini front view
8.3.Subeo specialist underwater vehicle
8.4.Electric deck boat by Leisure Life
8.5.Electric launch
8.6.Solar powered boats for tourism cruising at 12 kph on Lake Geneva
8.7.Bionic Dolphin craft from Tarco Research
8.8.Bionic Dolphin two-person electric submarine
8.9.The Ocean Explorer AUV
8.10.Ocean Voyager II AUV
8.11.A British Remote Controlled Mine Destruction Vehicle being lowered into the water.
8.12.Personal submarine
8.13.Wet submarine
8.14.Two-person SportSub submarine
8.15.Triton personal submarine
8.16.Deep Flight Aviator two-person leisure submarine
8.17.Seattle personal luxury submarine by US Submarines
8.18.US Submarine’s main tourist submarine
8.19.Sea Scooter by Pro Audio Elite of Italy
8.20.Small electric boats for hire
8.21.Global marine EV sales (‘000) 2005 to 2015
9.1.Image of the performance at Toyota Pavilion Expo 2005
9.2.The Toyota Partner Robot (current development model - several types of robots, updated both in form and performance appear at EXPO 2005.
9.3.The development concept is “Mobility Extending Human Ability” - a single-passenger, futuristic vehicle that represents further development and evolution of the PM exhibited at the 2003 Tokyo Motor Show.
9.4.Global mobile robot sales (‘000) 2005 to 2015
9.5.The new Electrolux Automower
9.6.Robots for Mars
9.7.Mission Scenario To Aid Technology Development
9.8.Robot Work Crew
9.9.Global toy EV sales (‘000) 2005 to 2015
9.10.Global mining and other EV sales (‘000) 2005 to 2015
10.1.Fuel cell powered Aggressor AMV
10.2.The URBIE reconnaissance robot
10.3.An example of a Spider Bot

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