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Electric Buses 2015-2025
Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment
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Industrial and commercial electric vehicles will be a similar market to cars but innovating faster and frequently more profitable for all in the value chain. The most important sector is buses, the subject of this report, where innovation often comes before cars because they are less price sensitive. In this report we show how the Chinese are now dominating the league table, buying the most buses and innovating rapidly already creating the lowest cost base by far. We examine the different power trains and the move from chassis to integrated manufacture often with no chassis and later structural electronics as bodywork will come. Technological roadmaps show the rapid innovation coming in the next decade and regional and technology sales are forecasted to 2025. Well over 100 hybrid and pure electric bus manufacturers are appraised and regional trends revealed. Based on extensive interviews, conferences and searches in 2014-5, this unique report is the only up to date in depth appraisal of the issues and trends including a detailed look at fuel cell buses over nearly three decades identifying why further delays are risking the window of opportunity for them closing as the greener, more efficient pure electric buses prove fit for prime time and over one quarter of one million e-buses are purchased in 2025 due to both legal push and market pull.
Forecasts are for number, unit price and market value 2015-2025 by region, powertrain and pure electric vs hybrid. Over 8t and under 8t are analysed in the 150+ pages of original summary and analysis, easily grasped by those with limited time. The information has been appraised by our PhD level analysts with long experience and an intensive program of travel to check out the facts. Worldwide, over 100 manufacturers and many recent interviews are covered including EV events in Japan, Taiwan, the USA, UK and Germany in the last few months. This is essential because the subject is moving so fast with the strong technologies, regions, manufacturers etc changing rapidly.
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| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
| 1.1. | Overview |
| 1.1. | Tata Motors CNG hybrid bus in India left and BYD K9 pure electric bus from China right that is the most widely trialled and adopted of its type |
| 1.1. | Market for conventional diesel buses, hybrid and pure electric buses > 8t by rationale, end game in green |
| 1.2. | Market for electric buses hybrid and pure electric >8t number K sold by year 2014-2025 with examples of orders, launches, technology roadmap |
| 1.2. | Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain number K 2014-2025 |
| 1.2. | Summary of technical preferences |
| 1.3. | Statistics issues |
| 1.3. | Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain average unit price $K 2014-2025 |
| 1.3. | Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain number K 2014-2025 |
| 1.4. | Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain average unit price $K 2014-2025 |
| 1.4. | Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain $ billion 2014-2025 |
| 1.4. | Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market |
| 1.5. | Chinese price/performance |
| 1.5. | Market by territory number % 2014-2025 for electric buses >8t. |
| 1.5. | Market value for electric buses >8t by powertrain $ billion 2014-2025 |
| 1.6. | Market by territory number % 2014-2025 for electric buses >8t. Major high cost markets in blue. |
| 1.6. | Market for electric buses <8t number K 2014-2025 China, other |
| 1.6. | Forecast 2015-2025 with key orders, technology timelines |
| 1.7. | Electric bus >8t forecast by powertrain 2015-2025, number, unit value, market value |
| 1.7. | Market for electric buses <8t units K and total market value $ billion |
| 1.7. | Market for electric buses <8t number K 2014-2025 China, other |
| 1.8. | Market for electric buses <8t units K, unit price and total market value $ billion |
| 1.8. | Ex-factory lowest price range of diesel, hybrid and pure electric 35-90 seat urban buses in China vs North America/ Europe 2012 and 2015. Chinese cost reduction of hybrids is obscured by move to more expensive hybrids (long range |
| 1.8. | Forecast by territory for buses >8t for APAC, NA, Europe, other |
| 1.9. | Market forecast for electric buses <8t 2015-2025 |
| 1.9. | Passenger travel by bus by region in England. |
| 1.9. | Price spread $K of buses >8t by region and technology 2012 and 2015, with exceptional prices excluded. High priced market red. Low priced market green. Significant price decrease bright green. |
| 1.10. | Market drivers and impediments are summarised below. |
| 1.10. | Bus size vs fuel consumption |
| 1.10. | Market forecast for electric buses <8t 2015-2025, number, unit price, market value |
| 1.11. | Cost trends - China ready to pounce |
| 1.11. | BYD articulated pure electric Lancaster bus for 120 passengers with 170 km range announced late 2014 |
| 1.11. | Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses |
| 1.12. | Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth. Green shows strongest market drivers. |
| 1.12. | The value chain is changing radically due to vehicle design being changed as summarised below. Ladder type hybrid bus chassis top. |
| 1.12. | Market drivers and impediments |
| 1.13. | Regional differences |
| 1.13. | Structural supercapacitor as car or bus bodywork, experimental |
| 1.13. | League table of EV traction battery manufacturers mWh |
| 1.14. | The typical chassis-plus-body value chain of hybrid buses 2015. Main added value shown in green |
| 1.14. | UITP summary of technological options for buses |
| 1.14. | China, India and cities |
| 1.15. | Radical change |
| 1.15. | MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery, the favoured practice in China |
| 1.15. | Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus |
| 1.16. | Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus with structural electronics |
| 1.16. | EV powertrain technology roadmap |
| 1.16. | Truly global market for similar buses |
| 1.17. | Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5 |
| 1.17. | Percentage share of 92 fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 by fuel cell manufacturer |
| 1.17. | Some of the main technological options compared |
| 1.18. | Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color. |
| 1.18. | North American sales of school buses 2000-2009, total buses sold |
| 1.18. | Weak trend to larger buses but not in China |
| 1.19. | Value chain and powertrain |
| 1.19. | Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
| 1.19. | Some of the factors increasing pure electric bus range 2015-2025 |
| 1.20. | e-bus drive train technology options compared, with commercially problematic issues highlighted |
| 1.20. | Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
| 1.20. | Hybrids becoming pure electric |
| 1.21. | Relative importance of technical options |
| 1.21. | Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
| 1.21. | 2012 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country from OICA correspondents' survey |
| 1.22. | Second quarter YTD 2014 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country |
| 1.22. | Technology disagreement |
| 1.23. | Fuel cell buses: progress and potential |
| 1.23. | School bus statistics for USA and China 2015 |
| 1.23.1. | Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses |
| 1.24. | Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general |
| 1.24. | First half sales by country for commercial vehicles CV 2013/3/4 |
| 1.24.1. | Automotive industry |
| 1.24.2. | School buses |
| 1.24.3. | Largest bus manufacturers |
| 1.24.4. | Review of 2012-2014 |
| 1.25. | Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles |
| 1.25. | Top five bus manufacturers 2005, 2011, 2015, Chinese in red, with output number of buses >8t |
| 1.26. | Domestic bus sales in China in October 2014 |
| 1.26. | E-bus news in 2016 |
| 1.27. | Rank of automotive manufacturers by production in 2013. LCV includes Minibuses," derived from light commercial vehicles, are used for the transport of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat a |
| 1.28. | Examples of E-bus news in 2016 with IDTechEx comment |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | Urban logistics trends |
| 2.1. | Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles |
| 2.1. | Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025 |
| 2.2. | Transport of people 2010-2025 |
| 2.2. | 142 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel |
| 2.2. | The move to electric |
| 2.3. | Motor technology by type of vehicle |
| 2.3. | TOSA bus specification |
| 2.3. | LCV and urban bus usage hours |
| 2.3.1. | Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology? |
| 2.3.2. | Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths |
| 2.4. | Choice of lithium-ion batteries |
| 2.4. | Proterra EcoRide |
| 2.4. | TOSA charging infrastructure specification |
| 2.4.1. | 142 lithium battery manufacturers: chemistry, format, sales successes |
| 2.5. | Global situation: some recent highlights |
| 2.5. | Rapid battery charging takes place at every third or fourth bus stop along the pilot project's route, which runs between Geneva airport and the city's exhibition center. |
| 2.5.1. | Australia |
| 2.5.2. | China |
| 2.5.3. | India |
| 2.5.4. | North America |
| 2.6. | Europe |
| 2.6. | Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2014 |
| 2.6.1. | UK |
| 2.6.2. | Germany |
| 2.6.3. | Sweden, Switzerland |
| 2.6.4. | ABB intermittent overhead charging |
| 2.6.5. | Turkey |
| 2.7. | Asia Pacific |
| 2.7. | The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2014 |
| 2.8. | Fuel and energy current fleet. |
| 2.8. | Latin America |
| 2.9. | Africa/Middle East |
| 2.9. | Past to present |
| 2.10. | Drivers for the development of propulsion systems for bus transport systems |
| 2.10. | Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles |
| 2.11. | Electrification |
| 2.11. | Program leading to zero emission urban bus systems in Europe |
| 2.12. | Drivers of change |
| 3. | ELECTRIC BUSES IN CHINA |
| 3.1. | China automotive industry |
| 3.1. | China automotive market 1999-2020 |
| 3.1. | 2013sales of some China-made EVs (numbers are from China Passenger Car Association |
| 3.2. | Breakdown of automotive market in China 2009-2014 |
| 3.2. | China bus market |
| 3.2.1. | China overall bus sales 2012-2014 |
| 3.2.2. | China Light Bus Market 2013 |
| 3.2.3. | China Medium Bus Market in 2013 |
| 3.2.4. | China Large Bus Market 2013 |
| 3.3. | Move to cleaner vehicles |
| 3.3. | Overcapacity in China |
| 3.4. | Primary foreign competition in China |
| 3.4. | Electric vehicle sales in China 2011-2014 |
| 3.4.1. | Electric bus policy |
| 3.5. | Plug-in EV Sales in 2013 |
| 3.5. | Sales and sales growth rates of various bus types in China from January to April |
| 3.6. | Market share comparisons for different bus types in China |
| 3.6. | New Energy Vehicles NEV in 2014 |
| 3.7. | Leapfrogging technology |
| 3.7. | Leading Chinese large bus manufacturers Jan-April 2012 |
| 3.8. | Leading Chinese medium bus manufacturers Jan - April 2012 |
| 3.8. | IDTechEx assessment of Chinese bus technology |
| 3.8.1. | Advanced technology in latest e-buses |
| 3.8.2. | Hiccups |
| 3.8.3. | China and rare earths |
| 3.9. | Chinese fuel cell activity: 35 organisations profiled |
| 3.9. | Leading Chinese bus manufacturers Jan - April 2012 |
| 3.10. | Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
| 3.10. | Chinese bus company and regional news 2014-5 |
| 3.10.1. | BYD |
| 3.10.2. | BYD bus progress and plans |
| 3.10.3. | 5th New Energy Vehicle Exhibition Beijing Nov 2014 |
| 3.11. | Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
| 3.12. | Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
| 3.13. | China carbon dioxide emissions in billion tonnes 1960-2040 |
| 3.14. | BYD illustration of particulates problem in China |
| 3.15. | Opportunities in China |
| 3.16. | BYD presentation |
| 4. | SURVEY OF HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS |
| 4.1. | Overview |
| 4.1. | Manufacturers of hybrid electric buses by geographical location |
| 4.1. | Manufacturers of hybrid electric buses and powertrains "chassis", country of headquarters, bus output, e-bus output 2015 (red under 1,000 yearly, blue 1,000-10,000 yearly, green over 10,000), images, successes, assessment |
| 4.2. | Analysis of hybrid bus manufacturers by location |
| 4.3. | 88 hybrid bus manufacturers compared: HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment. |
| 5. | SURVEY OF PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS |
| 5.1. | Overview |
| 5.1. | Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters, bus output, e-bus output 2015 (red under 1,000 yearly, blue 1,000-10,000 yearly, green over 10,000), images, successes, assessment |
| 5.1. | Manufacturers of pure electric buses by geographical location |
| 5.2. | Comparison of pure electric 12 meter buses |
| 5.2. | Analysis of pure electric bus manufacturers by location |
| 5.3. | 80 manufacturers of pure electric buses by HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment |
| 5.4. | Kalsruhe Assessment of E-Buses in 2015 |
| 6. | FUEL CELL BUSES: LESSONS OF 92 TRIALS |
| 6.1. | Technology |
| 6.1. | Fuel cell electric bus schematic |
| 6.1. | Fuel cell bus trials 1991-2014 showing power kW by project. Record year shown green; largest power shown brown. |
| 6.2. | Examples of PEM fuel cell buses 2011-2015 |
| 6.2. | Daimler's technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015 |
| 6.2. | Fuel cell bus rollout as planned by Daimler in 2010 but delayed |
| 6.3. | Reasons for failure to launch |
| 6.3. | The positioning of the planned Toyota fuel cell hybrid bus FCHV-BUS now delayed |
| 6.4. | Daimler fuel cell bus status |
| 6.4. | Third decade of trials |
| 6.5. | Ballard Pyrrhic victory |
| 6.5. | Technical advances past and future of Daimler fuel cell vehicles |
| 6.6. | Cost potential of fuel cell technology |
| 6.6. | Fuel cell cars in trouble, holding back buses |
| 6.7. | New competitor |
| 6.7. | Modular fuel cell strategy of Daimler |
| 6.8. | Hydrogen infrastructure in Germany |
| 6.8. | Window of opportunity closing |
| 6.9. | Catalog of shortcomings |
| 6.9. | Ballard presentation |
| 6.10. | Percentage interest in different powertrains by bus operators |
| 6.10. | Advances |
| 6.11. | Ballard approach |
| 6.11. | Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia |
| 6.12. | Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2010 |
| 6.12. | Fuel cell size reduces, fewer trials, no rollouts |
| 6.13. | Program slippage |
| 6.13. | Daimler Citaro bus |
| 6.14. | Van Hool bus with UTC Power fuel cell |
| 6.14. | US Targets |
| 6.15. | US evaluations |
| 6.15. | New Flyer/Bluways bus with Ballard fuel cell |
| 6.16. | Proterra bus with Hydrogenics fuel cell (plug-in, battery dominant) |
| 6.16. | Key observation |
| 6.17. | Daimler program today |
| 6.18. | Justified scepticism |
| 6.19. | Hyundai progress |
| 6.20. | Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 |
| 6.21. | Fuel cell bus trials 2011-2015 |
| 6.22. | Commitment in Europe |
| 6.23. | Commitment in the USA |
| 6.23.1. | Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US |
| 6.24. | Commitment in China |
| 7. | EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS |
| 7.1. | ALABC/ILA London January 2016 |
| 7.1. | Aleees bus showing position of two of the battery pack locations and the rollers on which they reside. |
| 7.2. | Ebusco publicity |
| 7.2. | Acal Energy UK |
| 7.3. | Aleees Taiwan |
| 7.3. | WAVE bus system |
| 7.4. | Range difficulties with pure electric industrial vehicles |
| 7.4. | Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA |
| 7.5. | Ebusco Netherlands |
| 7.5. | Proterra view on wireless charging vs other charging of buses today |
| 7.6. | PowerHydrant |
| 7.6. | EV Roadmap 8 USA |
| 7.7. | Green GT France |
| 7.8. | Hyundai Korea |
| 7.9. | IFEVS Italy |
| 7.10. | ITRI Taiwan |
| 7.11. | Nippon ChemiCon Japan |
| 7.12. | PowerHydrant USA |
| 7.13. | Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany |
| 7.14. | Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan |
| 7.15. | University of California Davis USA |
| IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTING | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
The market for medium and large hybrid and pure electric buses will be over $72 billion in 2025
Report Statistics
| Pages | 233 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 37 |
| Figures | 73 |
| Forecasts to | 2025 |
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