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NFC-Enabled Phones and Contactless Smart Cards 2008-2018

Analysis of Opportunities, Impediments & Suppliers in the largest RFID sector of all

Updated in Q4 2009
"2.1 billion tags will be sold in 2008. Do you know where?"
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Description

This report compares and contrasts Near Field Communication (NFC), and particularly RFID enabled mobile phones, with contactless smart cards and tickets. The emphasis is on how they are forms of RFID with advantages and disadvantages and different development paths. We come to the surprising conclusion that there will continue to be rapid growth in sales of all three alternatives for at least ten years. This follows 800 million Chinese acquiring contactless national ID cards in four years and 47 million Japanese adopting RFID enabled, NFC compatible phones in three years. These were two of the fastest rollouts of electronic products in human history.
Near Field Communication (NFC), by which electronic devices communicate if held within a few centimeters of each other, is underpinned by global ISO specifications. It has attracted the attention of the largest telcos, transport companies, banks and others and new trials are frequently announced all over the world. However, it has yet to take off, despite phones with the Sony Felica interface, compatible with NFC, being placed in the hands of 50 million Japanese in little more than two years - one of the fastest adoption rates for electronics ever. The many trials confirm that we are all like the Japanese in seeking the convenience that such phones can offer. So why the delay? Why do more and more trials?
 
With NFC phones, the telcos have nearly all the power and they have often failed to seek a mutuality of benefit with others in the value chain. That has meant that very few NFC enabled phones have been made available, banks are cautious about letting their cards be mimicked by the phones and transport operators are cautious about the ticketing option being loaded. As in retail RFID, they can cite technical problems for delay because telcos prefer NFC to be loaded on the SIM and that standard is not quite ready. There are also issues such as the capacity of the SIM cards.
 
It will all be resolved in due course. The wealth of value added services in prospect for the telcos will see to that but, as with retail RFID, the speed of progress will depend on how much mutuality of benefit is allowed to emerge. At least there is a role model of success. The telco NTT DoCoMo is behind the early success of the Japanese phones now commonly used for shop purchases and ticketing. It struck realistic deals, including emulating the Suica stored value card held by 22 million people.
Major new report
In this major new report IDTechEx explores the many new technologies coming along such as printed transistor circuits replacing the chip in tickets and later cards, with up to 90% cost reduction emerging and a huge increase in sales resulting from that. A large number of contactless card and ticket schemes and their suppliers across the world are analysed and the lessons of success and failure are revealed. IDTechEx explains why a $4 billion business in contactless cards and tickets and their systems will emerge in 2018 and details the elements of that business. Ten year forecasts are given for all these devices and systems.
New IDTechEx forecasts
IDTechEx forecasts that, while the yearly number of mobile phones sold rises from one to two billion in the next few years, the number of RFID enabled phones sold will rise from 134 million in 2008 to 860 million in 2018. East Asians will continue to show the way, not because of differences in consumer wants but because their governments and industry make sure the inter-industry haggling stops and projects that benefit the nation go ahead. For example, IDTechEx sees the following numbers of RFID enabled phones sold in 2013.
 
Numbers of RFID enabled phones forecast to be sold in 2013
Detailed ten year forecasts are given for each of
 
  • RFID-enabled cellphones
  • Contactless Smart Cards
  • Contactless RFID Tickets
 
We give the applications they are used in; split by territory; number of units; average unit price; total value of tags; total value of system (including interrogators, software, networking, installation) and much more.
 
Below is one example of the split by application of contactless smart cards:
Source: IDTechEx
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1.RFID and its new forms
1.2.Contactless smart cards and tickets
1.2.1.Contactless smart cards
1.2.2.Late adoption
1.2.3.Memory chip vs microprocessor
1.2.4.Compatibility
1.2.5.Dual interface smart cards
1.2.6.Privacy and security
1.2.7.Secure access cards
1.2.8.Contactless smart tickets
1.3.Near Field Communication (NFC)
1.3.1.RFID enabled phones are not all NFC
1.4.Effect of cards/ tickets competing with NFC
2.TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONTACTLESS CARDS AND TICKETS
2.1.Manufacturing value chain
2.2.Choice of frequency
2.3.Card technology
2.4.Chip choices and designs
2.4.1.Chip types
2.4.2.Chip circuit and security
2.4.3.Cost structure
2.4.4.Battery assisted cards
2.5.Contactless ticket technology
3.CONTACTLESS SMART CARDS IN ACTION
3.1.Anatomy of 105 transport schemes worldwide
3.2.Stored Value Cards (SVC) for transport
3.2.1.Paybacks
3.3.SVC cards and RFID phones for general cash replacement - Japan in the lead
3.3.1.Huge opportunity to replace cash
3.3.2.JR East Suica and its many partners
3.3.3.Edy electronic purse, Japan
3.3.4.Incompatibility of other schemes
3.3.5.Universal readers begin to appear
3.4.Major card schemes in China
3.4.1.China National ID card
3.4.2.Golden Card Project/ RFID Alliance/ Pilots and funding China
3.4.3.The Yikatong card China
3.4.4.Hong Kong Octopus China
3.4.5.City cards in China
3.4.6.Student cards China
3.5.Transport cards worldwide - examples
3.5.1.Washington WMATA
3.5.2.Atlanta MARTA Breeze card and tickets
3.5.3.London Oyster UK
3.5.4.Kanto Japan
3.5.5.Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Japan
3.5.6.Qingdao China
3.5.7.Seoul Korea, U-City, Digital Media City, etc
3.5.8.EasyFuelTM Peru
3.6.Secure access cards worldwide - examples
3.6.1.Introduction
3.6.2.Minneapolis St Paul Airport USA
3.6.3.China secure access
3.6.4.Paybacks
3.7.The move to RFID bank cards
3.8.Bank credit, debit, account and SVC cards
3.8.1.Bank cards for transport? A problem of what they charge operators
3.8.2.Bank cards for transport? A problem of speed
3.8.3.Visa gets faster
3.8.4.MasterCard gets faster - UK trial
3.8.5.MasterCard PayPass on New York Mass Transit
3.8.6.Paybacks
3.9.Contactless smart tickets in action
3.9.1.China National Railway System
3.9.2.Aichi World EXPO 2005 Japan
3.9.3.Buses Portugal and Norway
4.STANDARDS
4.1.Introduction
4.2.RFID card and ticket standards
4.3.Move to contactless EMV
4.4.NFC standards
5.NFC IN ACTION
5.1.Introduction
5.1.1.Origin of NFC
5.1.2.RFID enabled mobile phones
5.1.3.Business cases - fighting for position
5.1.4.Standards
5.1.5.Swiss Army Knife?
5.2.Transport led case studies
5.2.1.Mobile Suica, Japan
5.2.2.Hanau, Germany
5.2.3.Rhein Main Verkehrsverbund (RMV)
5.2.4.Xiamen, China
5.2.5.Chungwa Telecom, Taiwan
5.2.6.BART, San Francisco
5.2.7.RATP, Paris
5.2.8.Other French Transport Schemes - Marseille, Bordeaux
5.3.Payment led case studies
5.3.1.Caen, France
5.3.2.Payez Mobile
5.3.3.bitWallet Japan
5.3.4.O2 Wallet, UK
5.3.5.Royal Bank of Canada, Visa
5.3.6.Taiwan Mobile
5.3.7.Spokane, Washington, USA
5.3.8.Melbourne, Australia
5.3.9.Commonwealth Bank, MasterCard, Australia
5.3.10.Singapore
5.3.11.Netherlands, Payter
5.3.12.UnionPay and other NFC trials in China
5.3.13.Philips Arena, Atlanta USA
5.3.14.MasterCard, Dallas, USA
5.3.15.Discover, Motorola - Chicago and Salt Lake City
5.3.16.C1000, Netherlands
5.3.17.People's Bank, Georgia
5.3.18.Garanti Bank, Turkey
5.4.Access led case studies
5.4.1.Upper Austria University of Applied Sciences
5.4.2.O2 Wireless Festival, UK
5.4.3.Manchester City FC, UK
5.4.4.Farglory, Taiwan
5.5.Service delivery led case studies
5.5.1.Home Care Providers, UK
5.5.2.SmartTouch, Oulu, Finland
5.5.3.CarePro, UK
5.5.4.Finnair Airlines, Helsinki-Vantaa Airport, Finland
5.5.5.Home Health Care, Netherlands
5.6.Other applications
5.6.1.Health Buddy
5.6.2.Vehicle Identification
5.6.3.Hi Honey, I'm Home
6.CONTACTLESS CARDS VS NFC
6.1.Cash, bank card and phone payment compete
6.2.Merits of contactless cards vs RFID enabled phones
6.2.1.A skeptic's view
6.2.2.The IDTechEx assessment
6.3.Consumer response - say one thing, do another?
6.4.Contactless card companies enter NFC
6.5.Service providers and phone manufacturers fight for share
6.6.Bouygues Telecom agrees
6.7.GSM Association wades in
7.MARKET FORECASTS 2008-2018
7.1.Contactless smart card projections
7.1.1.Projections 2008-2018 by number, unit price, value
7.1.2.Financial and multifunctional cards
7.1.3.China National ID card
7.1.4.Other national ID cards
7.1.5.Transport cards
7.1.6.Secure access and other card applications
7.2.Contactless smart ticket projections
7.3.Forecasts for HF readers for cards and tickets
7.3.1.Readers for financial cards in the US
7.4.Memory vs microprocessor card chip projections
7.4.2.Memory chip cards and tickets
7.4.3.Microprocessors
7.4.4.League table of RFID chip suppliers
7.4.5.Contactless cards as a percentage of all smart cards
7.5.NFC phones
7.5.2.RFID enabled phone sales by region 2008-2018
7.6.Size of the opportunity to replace cash
7.7.The prepaid card opportunity
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS
APPENDIX 2: GLOSSARY
TABLES
1.1.Adoption of memory chip vs microprocessor cards by application.
3.1.Details of 105 projects involving contactless smart cards and tickets used for public transportation
3.2.Details of the China Natinoal ID card scheme
3.3.Speed of transaction for various conventional contactless card technologies
4.1.Details of 33 important published and emerging contactless card/ticket standards and their committees and statutes
4.2.Adoption of EMV smart cards for financial payments 2004-2006 in millions globally
5.1.Comparison of economic options for RFID enabled phones
6.1.The good and bad of contactless cards and tickets vs RFID enabled phones
7.1.Global market for contactless cards number millions 2008-2018
7.2.Global market for contactless cards unit price US dollars 2008-2018
7.3.Global market for contactless cards dollars millions 2008-2018
7.4.Global market for contactless cards and their systems US dollars million 2008-2018
7.5.Contactless tickets number and unit value 2008-2018
7.6.Total value of tickets and their systems US dollars million 2008-2018
7.7.Typical contactless card and ticket price list in 2006
7.8.Global market for financial contactless cards 2008-2018
7.9.Characteristics of financial market for contactless cards 2008-2018
7.10.Issuance of the Chinese National Identification card 2004-2006 and cumulative national target for 2008
7.11.Global market for China National ID cards 2008-2018
7.12.Characteristics of market for China ID card 2008-2018
7.13.Global market for other national ID cards 2008-2018
7.14.Global market for transport contactless cards 2008-2018
7.15.Characteristics of market for contactless transport cards 2008-2018
7.16.Largest contactless card schemes for transport with installed population of cards
7.17.Global market for security and other contactless cards 2008-2018
7.18.Characteristics of market for contactless secure access and other cards 2008-2018
7.19.Global market for contactless smart tickets 2008-2018
7.20.Characteristics of the contactless smart ticket market 2008-2018
7.21.Largest orders placed for contactless tickets 2004-2006
7.22.Forecast for HF reader sales 2008-2018
7.23.Largest suppliers of RFID chips at start of 2006 and 2007 by cumulative number sold in millions
7.24.Contactless and dual interface chips as a percentage of all card chips 2000, 2008, 2018
7.25.Global shipments of NFC enabled phones in millions 2008-2018
7.26.Numbers of NFC phones by region 2008-2018 in millions
7.27.Value of the potential global market for prepaid card payment volume in 2010
FIGURES
1.1.Security and memory for different shapes of RFID tag vs cost. Cards red, tickets blue, labels yellow
1.2.Range vs memory of various shapes and applications of RFID tags to different specifications
2.1.Manufacturing value chain for contactless cards and tickets
2.2.Frequencies - the good things
2.3.Frequencies - the bad things
2.4.Reverse of Omron HF contactless smart card showing copper etched antenna and chip assembly.
2.5.Reverse of an Exypnotech HF inlet showing etched aluminium antenna
2.6.Optimal printing technology for RFID antennas as a function of output.
2.7.Circuit block diagram of a microprocessor chip used in smart cards
2.8.Contactless system environment
2.9.Primary elements of the cost of a passive contactless smart card and what influences them
2.10.Relative costs of different antenna deposition technologies according to Infineon.
2.11.Time temperature recording HF RFID card from KSW Microtec with its inlet
2.12.Aveso laminate giving display capability to contactless smart cards.
2.13.Types of active RFID compared with passive RFID
2.14.An HF smart label or ticket from Hyan Label of China where the antenna is printed straight onto the paper label feedstock.
3.1.A token from Guangzhou in China
3.2.Shanghai public transport card
3.3.The Atlanta MARTA Breeze card
3.4.MARTA card operated gate
3.5.Mu Solutions RFID tag in admission ticket
3.6.Admission solution for Aichi World EXPO 2005
5.1.NFC board for mobile phone
5.2.The ability to conduct transactions at any time or place
5.3.NFC enabled phones pay bus fares in Hanau
5.4.NFC enabled mobile phones in Xiamen
5.5.Mobile phones in Taiwan
5.6.The Netherlands is an active market for NFC
6.1.Comparison of value of individual payments by cash, debit/credit card and mobile phone
7.1.Global market for contactless cards number millions 2008-2018
7.2.Global market for contactless cards unit price US dollars 2008-2018
7.3.Global market for contactless cards and tickets number millions 2008-2018
7.4.Global market for contactless cards and systems US dollars million 2008-2018
7.5.Total value of tickets and systems US dollars million 2008-2018
7.6.Historical trend of the mix of chip types for smart cards of all kinds 2000-2006, excluding China ID card
7.7.Contactless and dual interface chips as a percentage of all card chips 2000, 2008, 2018
7.8.Numbers of NFC phones by region 2008-2018 in millions

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Report Statistics

-Pages207
-Tables48
-Figures55
-Forecasts to2018
-Last updateQ4 2009
 

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