RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities

The 2006 version of this report has now been launched. For details please click on the following link.

This essential report analyses the rapidly growing and diversifying market for Radio Frequency Identification RFID. In 2006, almost three times the volume of RFID tags will be sold than over the previous 60 years since their invention. Primarily this will be because retailers and military forces are demanding, for the first time, that suppliers fit tags to pallets and cases to save cost and improve service but many other applications will be growing very rapidly.

 

This exponential growth will continue and, by 2015, the value of sales of RFID tags will have increased by thirteen times over the figure for 2005. The value of the total market, including systems and service, will rocket to $24.5 billion in 2015. Primarily, this will be driven by another new and dramatic development. This will be the tagging of high volume items - notably consumer goods, drugs and postal packages - at the request of retailers, military forces and postal authorities and for legal reasons. In these cases, the primary benefits sought will be broader and include cost, increased sales, improved safety, reduced crime and improved customer service.

 

Total RFID Market Projections $Bn by RFID value chain sector 2005-2015

 

Source: IDTechEx

 

Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyse the market in many different ways, with over 100 tables and figures. They include projections for label vs non label, EPC vs non- EPC, active vs passive, chip vs chipless, markets by geographical region, application, tag format and tag location. The emergence of new products, legal and demand pressures and impediments for the years to come.

 

Major players now and in future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in future are analysed, such as the rollout of the $6 billion national ID card system in China. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition. They include:

 

Tables and charts break down our forecasts in many ways. See the list of table titles in the contents below. Here are just a few examples:

 

Total spend on RFID systems, services and tags 2005, 2010, 2015 by territory $Bn

 

Source:IDTechEx Ltd.

Market for RFID interrogators by application, $Bn

 

Source:IDTechEx

Mimicking the barcodes market, where the market for barcode labels grew then declined, the value of the RFID market will similarly peak before the annual numbers of tags sold peak. Details of when and why are given in the report.

 

The report reveals fast growth in billion dollar, billion tag niches as response to tagging about 30 billion pallets and cases for military and retail mandates is slow due to a range of technical problems at previously little used UHF frequencies. This is however being resolved with 0.5 billion tags being used for pallets and cases in 2006. Item level tagging (especially by pharmaceuticals) and tagging of baggage, animals, books, tickets and other non retail markets are strongly growing in value - in 2008 3.0 billion tags will be sold for such applications and 3.0 billion tags for pallets/cases, but the former tag value will be higher than that for pallets/cases.

 

The market for RFID interrogators is analyzed - reaching $0.87 billion in 2008 for EPC interrogators and $0.58 billion in the same year for other interrogators, such as Near Field Communication interrogators.

 

Forecasts by territorial region show that by 2010, 39% of RFID tags by numbers will be sold in East Asia, followed by 36% to North America.

 

This report also includes forecasts of chipless RFID tags (tags which contain no silicon chip), tags in the form of smart tickets or cards and semi passive and active tags.