Markt für autonome Fahrzeuge 2025-2045: Robotaxis, autonome Autos, Sensoren
Autonome Verbraucherfahrzeuge der Stufe SAE (L0, L1, L2, L2+, L3, L4), fahrerlose Robotaxis der Stufe 4, kommerzielle Robotaxidienste, Regeln und Vorschriften für autonomes Fahren, wo autonome Fahrzeuge auf der Straße zugelassen sind, Basistechnologien.
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The global robotaxi vehicle market value in 2045 will be US$174 billion, growing with a 20-year CAGR of 37% between 2025 and 2045 and with a market share dominated by leaders from the US and China, such as Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, WeRide, Baidu, and AutoX.
IDTechEx's Autonomous Vehicles Market Forecast
The rise of level 2+ availability
For many years the term level 2+ has been used to describe high component level 2 ADAS systems that provide a well-refined highway assist experience, with smooth lane cantering abilities and robust adaptive cruise control. It has now become a solid stepping stone between level 2 and level 3 with the plus signifying that drivers can take their hands off the wheel while still monitoring the road.
Miles of mapped roads where level 2+ hands-off, eyes-on driving is available from different OEMs.
Over the past few years the availability of hands-free driving in the private car market has grown significantly. The market has been established since 2017 with early Super Cruise systems from General Motors. In 2024 General Motors had more than 20 models with Super Cruise available and is expanding to 750,000 miles of mapped roads to use the system on. Ford also has made a significant milestone by being the first OEM to offer level 2+ across Europe with its BlueCruise system. This report covers the full extent to which companies are offering level 2+ hands-off, eyes-on technologies, how many miles they are available on, and the laws and rules around level 2+ deployment in each region.
Level 3 struggling
The key difference between level 2+ and level 3 is that eyes-on becomes eyes-off. This effectively means that the OEM becomes liable for anything that happens while the vehicle is reporting that it is operating at level 3. So far, the only OEMs happy to accept this have been Mercedes and BMW, the former having certified level 3 driving in Germany, California, and Nevada, and the latter only having the technology in Germany.
Level 3 has been allowed on the roads since 2021, with a very small deployment from Honda in Japan. Following that, Mercedes certified its system in Germany in 2022, then in the US in 2023. Since then BMW has been certified in Germany and Mercedes has announced intentions to raise its maximum operating speed from 60kph (~40mph) to 95kph (~60mph). By the end of 2024, IDTechEx had expected to see more regions getting level 3 certification and more companies, especially GM and Ford, certifying their technologies. Progress has been much slower than initially thought, something that is reflected in IDTechEx's forecasts. IDTechEx now sees level 2+ as a more significant avenue of development, with level 3 likely to pick up in a few years time.
Given the slow start that level 3 vehicles have had, IDTechEx now thinks their deployment and adoption will be much slower than initially predicted. See the full report for the technologies available on these vehicles, all the rules surrounding level 3 deployment, and IDTechEx's predictions for how level 3 technologies will spread.
Robotaxis about to enter a significant growth phase
The robotaxi market is coming of age, with multiple commercial driverless robotaxi services coming online across the US and China in the past couple of years. Key players in these regions such as Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, Baidu's Apollo Go, and Amazon-backed Zoox, have now accumulated tens of millions of miles of real-world driving. Between them, these companies now have more than 2,000 robotaxis on the road, collecting data to fuel AI drivers, proving autonomous drivers can drive safely, and serving mobility as a service customers. For example, as of July 2024, Baidu had 500 robotaxis in Wuhan. It had targeted to scale up to 1,000 units by the end of the year.
Now that commercial driverless robotaxi services have become established, IDTechEx expects at least a handful of new provider and location combinations to come online each year; for example, Waymo has already been confirmed in Austin and Atlanta. In the US and China this will soon build to a flurry of cities and services, with IDTechEx expecting the sale of robotaxi vehicles to reach US$174 billion in 2045, representing a 37% CAGR from 2025.
In addition to the US and China, IDTechEx expects driverless robotaxi services in Europe and Japan to begin soon, see the full report for when.
This report gives details of all the main robotaxi deployments, including fleet numbers and service area in square miles. IDTechEx tracks which cities have had commercial robotaxi deployments, analyzes the data and provides a 20-year forecast for the emergence of fully autonomous robotaxi services.
Over US$100 billion of funding has gone into the mobility and autonomous vehicles over the past decade.
List of autonomous vehicle players:
- Waymo
- Cruise
- AutoX
- Pony.ai
- Baidu
- Mercedes
- BMW
- General Motors
- Tesla
- Li Auto
- Xpeng
- Arcfox
- Zeekr
- Honda
- Toyota
Key aspects
Coverage of autonomous vehicles at all levels
- SAE level 0
- SAE level 1
- SAE level 2
- SAE level 3
- SAE level 4
- Robotaxis operating at SAE level 4
Uptake of ADAS features and sensors on private cars, adoption percentages from vehicles sold in 2020 to 2023 for
- Adaptive cruise control
- Automatic emergency braking
- Blind spot detection and monitoring
- Lane keep assistance systems
- Camera
- Radar
Autonomous mobility as a service deployments
- Robotaxi services in Chinese cities
- Robotaxi services in US cities
- Robotaxi service locations for key players: Waymo, Zoox, Cruise, Baidu, AutoX, Pony.ai and more.
Enabling technologies and key developments therein
- Cameras for autonomous driving
- Infrared spectrum cameras for autonomous driving
- Radar for autonomous driving
- LiDAR for autonomous driving
- Mapping
- Teleoperation
- Connected vehicles
20-year forecast of private vehicle sales, robotaxi sales, robotaxi services, and autonomous driving sensor sales in:
- Unit sale (millions)
- Revenue from vehicle sales in US$ billion
- Revenue from robotaxi services in US$ billion
| Report Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Historic Data | 2020 - 2023 |
| CAGR | IDTechEx predicts, SAE level 4 robotaxi market to experience 37% CAGR between 2025 and 2045. |
| Forecast Period | 2024 - 2045 |
| Forecast Units | Unit sales, revenue (US$) |
| Regions Covered | United States, China, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan, Worldwide |
| Segments Covered | Private autonomous vehicles - SAE level 0 - SAE level 1 - SAE level 2 - SAE level 3 - SAE level 4 Robotaxi services in - US - China - Europe - Japan - ROW Perception sensors for autonomous driving - Cameras - Radars - LiDAR |
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| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. | Autonomous Cars Report Summary and Key Takeaways |
| 1.2. | SAE Levels of Automation |
| 1.3. | Level 2+ Solidifying in Definition, Availability, and Legislation |
| 1.4. | Overview of where autonomous cars are legal |
| 1.5. | Adoption of Key ADAS Features Increased Again in 2023 |
| 1.6. | Year-On-Year Increase in SAE Level 2 Adoption |
| 1.7. | High Levels of Autonomy Means More Sensors per Vehicle |
| 1.8. | LiDAR is for Level 3 and the Chinese Market |
| 1.9. | Summary of the Privately Owned Car Market - Level 3 is Happening Slowly, Level 2+ is Happening Now |
| 1.10. | Robotaxis Are Getting Measurably Safer, Are They Safe Enough |
| 1.11. | Waymo Says it is Safer than a Human Already |
| 1.12. | Robotaxis Available for Service in Cities Across US and China |
| 1.13. | Where The Next Robotaxi Deployments Will Be |
| 1.14. | Exponential Growth in Robotaxi ODD |
| 1.15. | The Key Players Operating Autonomous Robotaxi Services in 2024 |
| 1.16. | More Than US$37 Billion in Funding for Robotaxi Companies |
| 1.17. | The Complimentary Qualities of Primary Three Sensors |
| 1.18. | How Cameras are Used in Autonomous Cars |
| 1.19. | Thermal and Infrared Sensing for Autonomous Cars |
| 1.20. | Front Radars Use in Autonomous Cars |
| 1.21. | Autonomous Driving Functions Provided by Side Radar |
| 1.22. | Automotive LiDAR |
| 1.23. | City-By-City Roll Out of Robotaxi Services: Forecast 2025-2045 |
| 1.24. | US$1 Trillion in Robotaxi Service Revenue Before 2045 |
| 1.25. | Global Vehicle Sales Forecast and Peak Car Forecast by Region 2019-2045 |
| 1.26. | Global Vehicle Sales Forecast and Peak Car Forecast by SAE Level 2022-2045 |
| 1.27. | Long-Term Automotive Sensors Forecast - Market Revenue 2022-2045 |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | Why Automate Cars? |
| 2.2. | SAE Levels of Automation |
| 2.3. | The Automation Levels in Detail |
| 2.4. | Functions of Autonomous Driving at Different Levels |
| 2.5. | Roadmap of Autonomous Driving Functions in Private Cars |
| 2.6. | Typical Sensor Suite for Autonomous Cars |
| 2.7. | Sensors and their Purpose |
| 2.8. | Evolution of Sensor Suites from Level 1 to Level 4 |
| 2.9. | Two Development Paths Towards Autonomous Driving |
| 2.10. | Autonomy is Changing the Automotive Supply Chain |
| 2.11. | Future Mobility Scenarios: Autonomous and Shared |
| 2.12. | Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles |
| 2.13. | Robotaxis and Robotaxi Services |
| 3. | REGULATORY & LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS FOR PRIVATE VEHICLES |
| 3.1. | Introduction |
| 3.1.1. | Privately owned Autonomous Vehicles |
| 3.1.2. | Level 2+ could be a long-term middle-ground |
| 3.1.3. | Legislation and Autonomy |
| 3.1.4. | Overview of where autonomous cars are legal |
| 3.2. | Europe |
| 3.2.1. | EU Mandating Level 2 Autonomy from July 2022 |
| 3.2.2. | Level 2+ starting to grow in Europe |
| 3.2.3. | Level 2+/Hands-off driving in the UK |
| 3.2.4. | Level 3 roll out in Europe (1) |
| 3.2.5. | Level 3 roll out in Europe (2) |
| 3.2.6. | UNECE 2023 update and 2024 work on Level 2+ |
| 3.2.7. | Level 3 outlook in Europe |
| 3.3. | US + Canada |
| 3.3.1. | Level 2+ rules and deployment in the US |
| 3.3.2. | Level 3, Legislation, US |
| 3.3.3. | Mercedes S-Class first level 3 car in US |
| 3.3.4. | Outlook for the US |
| 3.4. | China |
| 3.4.1. | Level 3, Legislation, China |
| 3.4.2. | Shenzhen moves towards level 3 |
| 3.4.3. | Level 2+ deployment and level 3 testing in China |
| 3.4.4. | Outlook for China |
| 3.5. | Japan |
| 3.5.1. | Private autonomous vehicles in Japan |
| 3.5.2. | Autonomous robotaxi services in Japan |
| 4. | PRIVATE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES |
| 4.1. | ADAS Features |
| 4.1.1. | Level 2, Level 2+, and Level 3 |
| 4.1.2. | IDTechEx's ADAS Feature Database |
| 4.1.3. | ADAS Adoption by Region in 2023 |
| 4.1.4. | ADAS Feature Deployment in the US |
| 4.1.5. | ADAS Feature Deployment in the China |
| 4.1.6. | ADAS Feature Deployment in EU + UK + EFTA |
| 4.1.7. | ADAS Feature Deployment in Japan |
| 4.1.8. | SAE Level Adoption by Region 2020 to 2023 |
| 4.2. | Key OEMs in the autonomous cars race |
| 4.2.1. | Sensor Suite Disclaimer |
| 4.2.2. | Honda |
| 4.2.3. | Honda Sensing 360+ sensor suite |
| 4.2.4. | Mercedes S-Class and EQS |
| 4.2.5. | Mercedes S-class - Sensor Suite |
| 4.2.6. | Daimler/Bosch Autonomous Parking |
| 4.2.7. | BMW level 3 and level 2+ |
| 4.2.8. | BMW 7 Series and 5 Series Sensors |
| 4.2.9. | Tesla |
| 4.2.10. | Tesla's Hardware 4.0 |
| 4.2.11. | GM's Super Cruise |
| 4.2.12. | Vehicles with GM Super Cruise |
| 4.2.13. | Ford BlueCruise |
| 4.2.14. | Other US Level 2+ Systems |
| 4.2.15. | Availability of Level 2+ Systems is Growing |
| 4.2.16. | Chinese Stuck at Level 2 for Now |
| 4.2.17. | Chinese Sensor Suite Example - Li Auto L6 |
| 4.2.18. | Xpeng G9 |
| 4.2.19. | Arcfox Alpha S 2024 |
| 4.2.20. | Zeekr 001 |
| 4.2.21. | Leaders |
| 4.2.22. | Overview of Level 2+ and Level 3 Private Autonomous Cars |
| 4.3. | Sensors for Private Vehicles |
| 4.3.1. | Front Radar Applications |
| 4.3.2. | The Role of Side Radars |
| 4.3.3. | Front and Side Radars per Car |
| 4.3.4. | Total Radars per Car for Different SAE levels |
| 4.3.5. | Vehicle camera applications |
| 4.3.6. | E-mirrors, an emerging camera application |
| 4.3.7. | External Cameras for Autonomous Driving |
| 4.3.8. | Internal Cameras for Autonomous Driver Monitoring |
| 4.3.9. | LiDARs in automotive applications |
| 4.3.10. | LiDAR Deployment |
| 4.3.11. | Total Sensors For Level 0 to Level 4 and Robotaxis |
| 4.3.12. | Summary of Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles |
| 5. | ROBOTAXIS AND MOBILITY AS A SERVICE (MAAS) |
| 5.1. | Introduction |
| 5.1.1. | MaaS Level 4 is Different From Privately Owned Level 4 |
| 5.1.2. | Robotaxis & Robot Shuttles |
| 5.2. | California Testing Analysis |
| 5.2.1. | Key conclusions from California testing |
| 5.2.2. | The importance Of California DMV |
| 5.2.3. | Testing mileage |
| 5.2.4. | Furthest testers in 2023 |
| 5.2.5. | Measuring autonomous vehicle performance with miles per disengagement |
| 5.2.6. | Caveats of Measuring Performance With MPD |
| 5.2.7. | Cruise's very high miles per disengagement measure |
| 5.2.8. | The top three testers in 2023 by disengagement performance |
| 5.2.9. | Autonomous vehicle disengagement performance trend - part 1 |
| 5.2.10. | Autonomous vehicle disengagement performance trend - part 2 |
| 5.2.11. | Miles per disengagements - Waymo vs. Cruise |
| 5.2.12. | How many miles per disengagement is enough? |
| 5.2.13. | A deeper look at Zoox's disengagements |
| 5.2.14. | A deeper look at Waymo's disengagements |
| 5.2.15. | Cruise's and Waymo's collisions during testing |
| 5.2.16. | Very few collisions are the fault of the autonomous system |
| 5.2.17. | Number of Cars Registered For Driver Out Testing |
| 5.2.18. | Driver out testing miles and collisions |
| 5.2.19. | Robotaxi Driverless Crash Rate Compared to San Francisco and US |
| 5.2.20. | Comparison against human performance |
| 5.2.21. | Waymo entering San Francisco |
| 5.2.22. | Nature of collisions where the autonomous system was at fault (1) |
| 5.2.23. | Nature of collisions where the autonomous system was at fault (2) |
| 5.2.24. | Nature of Collisions Where Autonomous System Was at Fault (3) |
| 5.2.25. | Cruise's incident in October 2023 |
| 5.2.26. | A timeline following Cruise's incident - part 1 |
| 5.2.27. | A timeline following Cruise's incident - part 2 |
| 5.2.28. | Impact on the rest of the industry |
| 5.2.29. | Waymo claims to be safer than the average human driver |
| 5.3. | China disengagement data and commercial deployment |
| 5.3.1. | Beijing as a parallel to California |
| 5.3.2. | Top players by miles tested |
| 5.3.3. | Other companies testing in Beijing |
| 5.3.4. | Baidu's testing compared to California leaders |
| 5.3.5. | Fleet size of Baidu compared to Waymo and Cruise |
| 5.4. | Robotaxis In Europe, Japan and ROW. |
| 5.4.1. | Summary |
| 5.4.2. | The UK and Oxa (previously Oxbotica) |
| 5.4.3. | Non-robotaxi in the UK |
| 5.4.4. | Non-robotaxis in Europe |
| 5.4.5. | Mobileye in Germany and Croatia |
| 5.4.6. | Cruise in Dubai and Japan |
| 5.4.7. | Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044 |
| 5.5. | Real-World Deployments of Robotaxis - Case Studies |
| 5.5.1. | Introduction to commercial robotaxi deployments |
| 5.5.2. | Commercial robotaxi services in Phoenix |
| 5.5.3. | Commercial robotaxi services in San Francisco |
| 5.5.4. | Commercial robotaxi services in Los Angeles |
| 5.5.5. | Commercial robotaxi services in Las Vegas |
| 5.5.6. | The next US cities to get robotaxi commercial services will be... |
| 5.5.7. | Commercial robotaxi services in Wuhan |
| 5.5.8. | Commercial robotaxi services in Beijing |
| 5.5.9. | Commercial robotaxi services in Guangzhou and Shanghai |
| 5.5.10. | IDTechEx's list of commercial robotaxi services |
| 5.5.11. | Growth in commercial robotaxi service area (square miles) |
| 5.6. | Key Player Analysis |
| 5.6.1. | Table of Players (1) |
| 5.6.2. | Table of Players (2) |
| 5.6.3. | Driving Sharing Companies and Their Autonomous Partnerships |
| 5.6.4. | State of development in 2023 |
| 5.6.5. | State of development in 2024 |
| 5.6.6. | The big movers in 2024 |
| 5.6.7. | Robotaxi investment |
| 5.6.8. | Best Funded Companies in Autonomy and Mobility Space |
| 5.6.9. | Waymo |
| 5.6.10. | Waymo Sensor Suite |
| 5.6.11. | Cruise |
| 5.6.12. | Cruise Sensor Suite |
| 5.6.13. | Waymo and Cruise's Ground Up Robotaxi Vehicles |
| 5.6.14. | Zoox |
| 5.6.15. | Zoox Sensor Suite |
| 5.6.16. | AutoX |
| 5.6.17. | AutoX Sensor Suite |
| 5.6.18. | Baidu and Apollo |
| 5.6.19. | Baidu's Ground Up Robotaxi |
| 5.6.20. | Pony |
| 5.6.21. | Pony sensor suite |
| 5.6.22. | WeRide |
| 5.6.23. | Mobileye - One of the Most Significant Testers Not in California |
| 5.6.24. | Tesla finally making robotaxi moves |
| 5.6.25. | Verne, a.k.a. Project 3 Mobility - A new robotaxi entrant |
| 5.6.26. | Robotaxi Sensor Suite Analysis (1) |
| 5.6.27. | Robotaxi Sensor Suite Analysis (2) |
| 5.6.28. | Robotaxi Testing and Deployment Locations |
| 5.6.29. | Level 4 or level 5? |
| 6. | ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES: LIDAR, RADAR, CAMERAS, INFRARED, HD MAPPING, TELEOPERATION, 5G AND V2X |
| 6.1. | Introduction |
| 6.1.1. | Connected vehicles |
| 6.1.2. | Localisation |
| 6.1.3. | AI and Training |
| 6.1.4. | Teleoperation |
| 6.1.5. | Cyber security |
| 6.2. | Autonomous Vehicle Sensors |
| 6.2.1. | Autonomous driving technologies |
| 6.2.2. | The Primary Three Sensors - Cameras, Radar, and LiDAR |
| 6.2.3. | Sensor Performance and Trends |
| 6.2.4. | Robustness to Adverse Weather |
| 6.2.5. | Evolution of Sensor Suite From Level 1 to Level 4 |
| 6.2.6. | What is Sensor Fusion? |
| 6.2.7. | Autonomous Driving Requires Different Validation System |
| 6.2.8. | Sensor Fusion Technology Trends for Applications |
| 6.2.9. | Hybrid AI for Sensor Fusion |
| 6.2.10. | Autonomy and Electric Vehicles |
| 6.2.11. | EV Range Reduction |
| 6.2.12. | The Vulnerable Road User Challenge in City Traffic |
| 6.2.13. | Pedestrian Risk Detection |
| 6.2.14. | Recommended Sensor Suites For SAE Level 2 to Level 4 & Robotaxi |
| 6.2.15. | Cameras |
| 6.2.16. | IR Cameras |
| 6.2.17. | Radar |
| 6.2.18. | LiDAR |
| 6.2.19. | Mapping and Localisation |
| 6.3. | Teleoperation |
| 6.3.1. | Enabling Autonomous MaaS |
| 6.3.2. | Three Levels of Teleoperation |
| 6.3.3. | How remote assistance works - Zoox |
| 6.3.4. | Remote assistance |
| 6.3.5. | Remote Control |
| 6.3.6. | Where is teleoperation currently used? |
| 6.3.7. | Players |
| 6.3.8. | MaaS vs Independent solution providers |
| 6.3.9. | Ottopia's Advanced Teleoperation (1) |
| 6.3.10. | Ottopia's Advanced Teleoperation (2) |
| 6.3.11. | Phantom Auto's Teleoperation as Back-Up for AVs |
| 6.3.12. | Phantom Auto Gaining Momentum in Logistics |
| 6.3.13. | Halo - Subverting Autonomy |
| 6.4. | Connected Cars |
| 6.4.1. | What is a Connected Vehicle? |
| 6.4.2. | Why V2X |
| 6.4.3. | Connected Cars: Technologies |
| 6.4.4. | Connected Cars: Use Cases and Case Studies |
| 7. | FORECASTS |
| 7.1. | Forecasting Methodology: Robotaxis |
| 7.2. | Robotaxi Commercial Service market entry by region |
| 7.3. | Robotaxi Testing and Services 2016-2022 |
| 7.4. | Commercial Service Rollout 2025-2045 |
| 7.5. | Robotaxi Fleet Size 2020-2045 |
| 7.6. | Robotaxi Service Utilization and Adoption 2025-2045 |
| 7.7. | Robotaxi Service Revenue 2024-2044 |
| 7.8. | Private and Autonomous Passenger Vehicle Mileage 2022-2044 |
| 7.9. | Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars (1) |
| 7.10. | Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars (2) |
| 7.11. | Global Vehicle Sales and Peak Car by Region 2019-2045 |
| 7.12. | Forecasting Methodology: Progression of Level 0, Level 1 and Level 2 |
| 7.13. | Forecasting Methodology: Emergence of level 3 and Level 4 Technologies |
| 7.14. | Global Vehicle Sales and Peak Car by SAE Level 2022-2045 |
| 7.15. | Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in US 2022-2045 |
| 7.16. | Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in China 2022-2044 |
| 7.17. | Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in EU + UK + EFTA 2022-2044 |
| 7.18. | Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in Japan 2022-2044 |
| 7.19. | Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in ROW 2022-2044 |
| 7.20. | Forecasting Method: Vehicle Revenue |
| 7.21. | Automotive Market Revenue by Region 2022-2045 |
| 7.22. | Automotive Market Revenue by SAE Level 2022-2045 |
| 7.23. | Forecasting Method: Sensors |
| 7.24. | Sensors for Cars: Cameras 2022-2045 |
| 7.25. | Sensors for Cars: Radar |
| 7.26. | Sensors for Cars: LiDAR |
| 7.27. | Sensors for Cars Revenue: 2022-2044 |
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Markt für autonome Fahrzeuge 2025-2045: Robotaxis, autonome Autos, Sensoren
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Der globale Marktwert von Robotaxi-Fahrzeugen wird 2045 174 Milliarden US-Dollar betragen
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| Slides | 409 |
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| Forecasts to | 2045 |
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