IDTechEx prognostiziert, dass der Markt für Elektrofahrzeugbatterien bis 2034 auf 383 Milliarden US-Dollar wachsen wird

Li-Ionen-Akkus und Batteriemanagementsysteme für Elektrofahrzeuge 2024-2034

Batterien für Elektrofahrzeuge, Märkte und Segmente für Elektrofahrzeuge, Li-Ionen-Zelltechnologie und Leistungstrends, Verpackungsdesigns und -materialien, Packungshersteller, Wärmemanagement, Batteriemanagementsysteme


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Li-ion batteries and battery management systems for electric vehicles
The global market for Li-ion batteries in electric vehicles is forecast to reach over US$380 billion by 2034, driven primarily by demand for battery electric cars. Electrification and emissions targets, improving battery performance, and an increasingly attractive total cost of ownership for some vehicle segments are driving this growth in demand for battery electric vehicles (EV), and despite challenges relating to global supply chains, semiconductor shortages, and raw material availability, the EV market continued its upward trajectory in 2022. The Li-ion battery is the key technology that underpins and enables the deployment of EVs. This report details the technology and trends to Li-ion cells, packs, and battery management systems (BMS), from cathode materials and silicon anodes, to cell-to-pack and dual chemistry pack designs, to wireless BMS.
 
Share of Li-ion demand by EV segment. Source: IDTechEx.
 
Cells
Li-ion cell chemistries continue to evolve. Higher nickel layered oxides such as NMC 811 are being deployed for battery electric cars (BEV) to maximize energy density and minimize cobalt content but cost pressures have led to growth in the use of LFP, a lower energy density chemistry but also a lower cost one. Optimization of cell and pack design can help minimize this disadvantage. In commercial vehicles, higher cycle life is often needed, making the use of increasingly high-nickel cathodes difficult in the short-term, while in 2 and 3 wheelers a variety of Li-ion chemistries are being used to replace Pb-acid, including LMO, NMC and LFP, and combinations thereof. A range of chemistries are and will continue to be utilized depending on performance requirements, duty-cycles, cost, and availability. The report provides analysis on Li-ion cell technology, covering preferred cell form factors, changing cell chemistries, cathode forecasts, cell performance data and trends, discussion of next generation cell chemistries, as well as EV cell supplier shares.
 
Packs
Cell technology and chemistry often takes centre stage in the discussion on battery technology but developments to battery pack designs are equally important. For example, cell-to-pack designs are becoming increasingly popular for electric cars as a means to optimize energy density and are being developed by players such as BYD, CATL, and Tesla, amongst others. Thermal management is also an increasingly important topic given its critical role in maintaining the safe operation of Li-ion batteries. Different players are pursuing air, liquid and refrigerant-cooled methods, as well as immersion cooling, each with their own benefits and weaknesses. Trends to various battery pack designs are analyzed in this report, including on thermal management strategies, modular and cell-to-pack designs, and material light-weighting.
 
A study of battery pack manufacturers, primarily supplying packs to commercial, non-car vehicle segments, such as heavy duty-trucks, buses and logistics vehicles, is provided with a focus on the European and US players. Comparisons in the form factors, chemistries and performance of turnkey products are provided, along with a discussion of how pack manufacturers are differentiating themselves. The key markets and segments being targeted are outlined alongside analysis of how battery performance requirements change for different markets.
 
Comparison of battery pack performance. Source: IDTechEx.
 
Battery management systems
The battery management system is key to the safe and reliable operation of a Li-ion battery pack. While the core functions of a BMS are relatively well defined and the technology comparatively mature, new developments to battery management systems offer a unique opportunity to improve several aspects of battery performance simultaneously. Potential performance improvements from innovations to BMS and BMS software include increased energy density, faster charging rates, and more accurate battery lifetime estimation, which can be enabled through more accurate state estimation, in turn enabled through a combination of physics-based models, data-based models, and cloud analytics. Wireless BMS are also being developed, enabling easier scaling of pack designs and reducing the amount of wiring needed in a battery pack. GM announced they would utilize a wireless BMS in their Ultium batteries in 2020. The report details the functions of a battery management system, the players in involved in BMS manufacturing and development and key innovations and advancements to battery management systems.
 
EV market segments
Battery electric cars have been one of the key drivers behind growth in Li-ion demand over the past 10 years and are forecast to contribute 80% of the demand for Li-ion batteries by 2030. However, electrification is needed across a broad spectrum of vehicle segments and indeed growth in EVs across multiple sectors is expected. For light commercial vehicles (LCV), battery electrification is not only being explored for environmental reasons but increasingly for economic reasons. Though the market is still dwarfed by electric cars, growth is expected as pilot projects are completed and trust in electric vans is gained. For trucks, battery requirements can be more challenging and some low volume segments may continue to rely on 3rd party pack manufacturers. Nevertheless, OEMs such as Tesla, Daimler, VW and Volvo are all investing heavily in long-haul battery electric trucks. The report provides an overview of some of the key drivers, challenges and battery technology choices for electric vehicle segments including cars, LCVs, trucks, buses, 2 wheelers, marine, construction vehicles and trains. Forecasts for Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles (by GWh, $B) are provided for electric cars, LCVs, trucks, buses, and 2/3 wheelers are provided to 2034.
 
Key aspects
This report provides the following information:
  • Introduction to electric vehicle market segments and developments
  • Analysis of cell and pack technologies, designs, and trends
  • Analysis of cell and battery pack performance
  • Overview of pack manufacturers (commercial, non-car markets)
  • Breakdown of the function and design of battery management systems (BMS)
  • Identification of BMS players
  • Analysis of developments to battery management systems, including wireless BMS, fast charging algorithms, advanced state estimation
  • Li-ion demand forecasts by EV application
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2015 - 2022
CAGRIDTechEx forecasts the electric vehicle market to grow to $383 billion by 2034, representing a CAGR of 12.1% from 2022.
Forecast Period2023 - 2034
Forecast UnitsGWh, $
Regions CoveredWorldwide
Segments CoveredElectric vehicle batteries, electric vehicle markets and segments (cars, vans, trucks, buses, 2/3 wheelers), Li-ion cell technology and performance trends, Li-ion pack designs and materials, LIB pack manufacturers, thermal management, Li-ion battery management systems.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Key takeaways (1)
1.2.Key takeaways (2)
1.3.Major EV categories
1.4.Major EV categories
1.5.Future role for battery pack manufacturers
1.6.Remarks on battery manufacturers
1.7.Battery pack comparison
1.8.Turnkey battery pack performance comparison
1.9.Chemistry choices in turnkey EV packs
1.10.Turnkey battery design choices -cell form factor and cooling
1.11.Pack manufacturers
1.12.Trends in battery management systems
1.13.BMS patent landscape
1.14.BMS players
1.15.Innovations in BMS
1.16.Advanced BMS activity
1.17.BMS solutions for fast charging
1.18.Improvements to battery performance from BMS development
1.19.Regional BEV chemistry trends
1.20.EV cell supplier share
1.21.BEV cell form factors
1.22.BEV cell energy density trends
1.23.Development trends to LIB technology
1.24.Technology roadmap
1.25.Li-ion market demand shifts
1.26.BEV car pack price
1.27.EV Li-ion demand (GWh)
1.28.EV Li-ion battery market (US$B)
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.2.Electric Vehicle Terms
2.3.Drivetrain Specifications
2.4.Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
2.5.What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
2.6.What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
2.7.Carbon emissions from electric vehicles
2.8.Policy and the Li-ion battery market
2.9.Electric vehicle policy
2.10.Impact of EV policy
2.11.Automaker EV Targets
3.LI-ION CELL TECHNOLOGY
3.1.Li-ion cells (cathodes, anodes, form factor, performance trends)
3.1.1.Importance of Li-ion
3.1.2.What is a Li-ion battery?
3.1.3.Lithium battery chemistries
3.1.4.Why lithium-ion?
3.1.5.Types of lithium battery
3.1.6.The Li-ion Supply Chain
3.1.7.Cell production capacity outlook
3.1.8.The Battery Trilemma
3.1.9.Battery wish list
3.1.10.Cathode comparisons - overview
3.1.11.Cathode performance comparison
3.1.12.Chemistry energy density comparison
3.1.13.Suitability of LFP for EVs
3.1.14.Impact of material price increases
3.1.15.Cathode prices
3.1.16.LFP in EVs
3.1.17.Anode comparisons - overview
3.1.18.Anode performance comparison
3.1.19.Anode share
3.1.20.Historic average cell price
3.1.21.How low can cell costs go?
3.1.22.How low can cell costs go?
3.1.23.Cell Types
3.1.24.Automotive format choices
3.1.25.Cell Format Market Share
3.1.26.Cell Format Comparison
3.1.27.Cell sizes
3.1.28.4680 cylindrical cells
3.1.29.Comparing commercial cell chemistries
3.1.30.Commercial cell specifications
3.1.31.Commercial Li-ion cell performance
3.1.32.EV cell specifications
3.1.33.Increasing BEV battery cell specific energy
3.1.34.Increasing BEV battery cell energy density
3.1.35.Improvements to energy density
3.1.36.Timeline and outlook for Li-ion energy densities
3.1.37.Cycle life requirements for electric vehicles
3.2.Next-generation cell technology
3.2.1.How much can silicon improve energy density?
3.2.2.Current silicon use
3.2.3.Silicon use in EVs
3.2.4.Silicon and LFP
3.2.5.Partnerships and investors - solid-state and silicon
3.2.6.Automotive solid-state and silicon comparison
3.2.7.Notable players for solid-state EV battery technology
3.2.8.Notable players for silicon EV battery technology
3.2.9.Solid-state - Blue Solutions
3.2.10.Solid-state - Prologium
3.2.11.Pack considerations for SSBs
3.2.12.Silicon anodes - Enevate
3.2.13.Potential disruptors to conventional Li-ion
3.2.14.Cell chemistry comparison - quantitative
3.2.15.Concluding remarks
3.2.16.Value proposition of Na-ion batteries
3.2.17.Na-ion can offer cost competitive alternative to Li-ion
3.2.18.Na-ion to compliment Li-ion not replace
4.LI-ION BATTERY PACKS
4.1.Li-ion battery packs (cell-to-pack, 800V, bipolar)
4.1.1.Li-ion Batteries: from Cell to Pack
4.1.2.Shifts in Cell and Pack Design
4.1.3.Battery KPIs for EVs
4.1.4.Modular pack designs
4.1.5.Ultium BMS
4.1.6.What is Cell-to-pack?
4.1.7.Drivers and Challenges for Cell-to-pack
4.1.8.What is Cell-to-chassis/body?
4.1.9.BYD Blade battery
4.1.10.CATL Cell to Pack
4.1.11.CATL's CTP battery evolution
4.1.12.Cell-to-pack and Cell-to-body Designs Summary
4.1.13.Gravimetric Energy Density and Cell-to-pack Ratio
4.1.14.Volumetric Energy Density and Cell-to-pack Ratio
4.1.15.Cell-to-pack or modular?
4.1.16.Outlook for Cell-to-pack & Cell-to-body Designs
4.1.17.Bipolar batteries
4.1.18.Bipolar-enabled CTP
4.1.19.ProLogium: "MAB" EV battery pack assembly
4.1.20.EV battery pack assembly
4.1.21.Increasing BEV voltage
4.1.22.Drivers for 800V Platforms
4.1.23.Emerging 800V Platforms & SiC Inverters
4.2.Hybrid and dual-chemistry battery packs
4.2.1.Introduction to hybrid energy storage systems
4.2.2.Hybrid energy storage topologies
4.2.3.Electric vehicle hybrid battery packs
4.2.4.CATL hybrid Li-ion and Na-ion pack concept
4.2.5.CATL hybrid pack designs
4.2.6.Our Next Energy
4.2.7.High energy plus high cycle life
4.2.8.Nio's dual-chemistry battery
4.2.9.Dual chemistry battery for thermal performance
4.2.10.Nio hybrid battery operation
4.2.11.Fuel cell electric vehicles
4.2.12.Hybrid battery + supercapacitor
4.2.13.SWOT of dual-chemistry battery pack
4.2.14.Concluding remarks on dual-chemistry batteries
4.3.Pack materials
4.3.1.Battery Pack Materials
4.3.2.Battery Enclosure Materials and Competition
4.3.3.From Steel to Aluminium
4.3.4.Towards Composite Enclosures?
4.3.5.Composite Enclosure EV Examples (1)
4.3.6.Composite Enclosure EV Examples (2)
4.3.7.Projects for Composite Enclosure Development (1)
4.3.8.Projects for Composite Enclosure Development (2)
4.3.9.Battery Enclosure Materials Summary
4.3.10.Energy Density Improvements with Composites
4.3.11.Compression Pads/foams
4.3.12.Polyurethane Compression Pads
4.3.13.Players in Compression Pads/foams
4.3.14.Example use in EVs: Ford Mustang Mach-E
4.4.Thermal management
4.4.1.Stages of thermal runaway
4.4.2.Introduction to Thermal Interface Materials for EVs
4.4.3.TIM Pack and Module Overview
4.4.4.TIM Application - Pack and Modules
4.4.5.TIM Application by Cell Format
4.4.6.Key Properties for TIMs in EVs
4.4.7.Switching to Gap Fillers from Pads
4.4.8.Thermally Conductive Adhesives in EV Batteries
4.4.9.Material Options and Market Comparison
4.4.10.TIM Chemistry Comparison
4.4.11.Thermal Interface Material Trends
4.4.12.Gap Filler to Thermally Conductive Adhesives
4.4.13.Thermal System Architecture
4.4.14.Coolant Fluids in EVs
4.4.15.Introduction to EV Battery Thermal Management
4.4.16.Battery Thermal Management Strategy by OEM
4.4.17.Thermal Management in Cell-to-pack Designs
4.4.18.Inter-cell Heat Spreaders or Cooling Plates
4.4.19.Thermal Runaway and Fires in EVs
4.4.20.EV Fires: When Do They Happen?
4.4.21.Regulations
4.4.22.What are Fire Protection Materials?
4.4.23.Thermally Conductive or Thermally Insulating?
4.4.24.Fire Protection Materials: Main Categories
4.4.25.Material comparison
5.BATTERY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
5.1.Battery management systems
5.1.1.Battery performance definitions
5.1.2.Trends in battery management systems
5.1.3.BMS introduction
5.1.4.Introduction to battery management systems
5.1.5.BMS core functionality
5.1.6.Functions of a BMS
5.1.7.Cell control
5.1.8.BMS core hardware
5.1.9.BMS structure
5.1.10.Block diagram of BMS - generic
5.1.11.BMS topologies
5.1.12.BMS topologies
5.1.13.BMS topology evaluation
5.1.14.State estimation
5.1.15.SoC estimation
5.1.16.SoC estimation
5.1.17.SoC and SoH estimation methods
5.1.18.State of Health (SoH)
5.1.19.Improving state estimation
5.1.20.Remaining Useful Life (RUL)
5.1.21.Remaining Useful Life (RUL)
5.1.22.Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation
5.1.23.Data-driven approaches to RUL estimation
5.1.24.Flowcharts for determining RUL
5.1.25.Flowcharts for determining RUL via machine-learning (ML)
5.1.26.Consequences of cell imbalance
5.1.27.Cell balancing
5.1.28.Fast charging limitations
5.1.29.Impact of fast-charging
5.1.30.Fast charging protocols
5.1.31.Electric car charging profiles
5.1.32.BMS solutions for fast charging
5.1.33.Cloud analytics and SaaS
5.1.34.Key patent classifications
5.1.35.BMS patent landscape topics
5.1.36.BMS patent landscape
5.1.37.BMS patent assignees
5.1.38.BMS patent landscape regional activity
5.1.39.Innovations in BMS
5.1.40.Improvements from BMS development
5.2.BMS players
5.2.1.BMS activity
5.2.2.BMS companies
5.2.3.BMS companies
5.2.4.BMS players
5.2.5.Advanced BMS activity
5.2.6.Advanced BMS players
5.2.7.Lithium Balance
5.2.8.Qnovo
5.2.9.Qnovo
5.2.10.Breathe Battery Technologies
5.2.11.GBatteries
5.2.12.Iontra
5.2.13.Iontra technology
5.2.14.Eatron Technologies
5.2.15.Eatron RUL estimation
5.2.16.Titan AES
5.2.17.Brill Power
5.2.18.Relectrify
5.2.19.Nerve Smart Systems
5.3.Wireless BMS
5.3.1.Introduction to wireless BMS
5.3.2.Development of wireless BMS
5.3.3.Analog Devices wBMS
5.3.4.Texas Instruments wBMS
5.3.5.Wireless BMS hardware
5.3.6.Dukosi
5.3.7.Wireless BMS patent example
5.3.8.Wireless BMS players
5.3.9.Wireless BMS pros and cons
5.4.Battery management system semiconductors and ICs
5.4.1.BMS semiconductor introduction
5.4.2.Block diagram of BMS - NXP
5.4.3.Block diagram of BMS - ST Micro
5.4.4.Block diagram of BMS - Infineon
5.4.5.Example monitoring and balancing IC
5.4.6.Example microcontroller
5.4.7.Microcontroller technology
5.4.8.MCU - product table
5.4.9.Monitoring and balancing IC
5.4.10.BMS innovation
6.PACK MANUFACTURERS - COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
6.1.Developments in pack manufacturers
6.2.Acquisitions of pack manufacturers
6.3.Module and pack manufacturing process
6.4.Module and pack manufacturing
6.5.Non-car battery pack manufacturing
6.6.Differences in design
6.7.Differences in pack design
6.8.Role of battery pack manufacturers
6.9.Metrics to compare pack manufacturers
6.10.Battery pack manufacturers - Europe
6.11.Battery pack manufacturers
6.12.Battery pack manufacturers - North America
6.13.Battery pack manufacturers
6.14.Asian module and pack manufacturers
6.15.Battery pack comparison
6.16.Battery module/pack comparison
6.17.Battery pack performance comparison
6.18.Battery pack/module comparison
6.19.Battery pack/module comparison
6.20.Turnkey battery design choices -cell form factor and cooling
6.21.Energy density comparison by form factor
6.22.Energy density comparison by cooling method
6.23.Chemistry choices in turnkey EV packs
6.24.Truck battery chemistry examples
6.25.Cycle life requirements
6.26.Chemistry and form factors of turnkey solutions
6.27.Pack manufacturer revenue estimates
6.28.Microvast
6.29.Microvast
6.30.Forsee Power
6.31.Forsee Power batteries
6.32.Xerotech
6.33.Borg Warner battery packs
6.34.Webasto
6.35.BMZ
6.36.Kore Power
6.37.Proterra
6.38.Electrovaya
6.39.American Battery Solutions
6.40.Leclanche
6.41.WAE Technologies
6.42.Future role for battery pack manufacturers
6.43.Concluding remarks on battery manufacturers
7.SECTORS AND EV SEGMENTS
7.1.Introduction
7.1.1.Major EV categories
7.1.2.Major EV categories
7.1.3.Application battery priorities
7.2.BEVs
7.2.1.Electric cars
7.2.2.Global BEV chemistry trends
7.2.3.Regional BEV chemistry trends
7.2.4.EV cell supplier share
7.2.5.EV cell supplier share
7.2.6.BEV cell form factors
7.2.7.Cell form factor trends by region
7.2.8.BEV cell energy density trends
7.2.9.BEV pack energy density trends
7.2.10.BEV energy density trends by region
7.2.11.Electric car battery size trend
7.2.12.Hybrid electric vehicles
7.3.Electric buses, vans and trucks
7.3.1.Other Vehicle Categories
7.3.2.Cycle life requirements for commercial electric vehicles
7.3.3.Electric medium and heavy duty trucks
7.3.4.Electric light commercial vehicles
7.3.5.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
7.3.6.Electric Buses: Market History
7.3.7.Chemistries used in electric buses
7.3.8.China eBus Battery Market
7.3.9.Chinese Battery Manufacturers for eBuses
7.3.10.The Rise of Zero Emission Trucks
7.3.11.CO2 Emission: Medium & Heavy-Duty Trucks
7.3.12.Fuel / CO2 Regulation for New Trucks
7.3.13.Fuel Saving Technology Areas
7.3.14.Zero Emission Trucks: Drivers and Barriers
7.3.15.Installed Battery Capacity by Truck Weight
7.3.16.E-Truck OEM Battery Chemistry Choice
7.3.17.Heavy-Duty Battery Choice: Range & Payload
7.3.18.Battery Chemistry Tailored to Duty Requirement
7.3.19.The EV revolution is happening on two wheels
7.3.20.China and India are major three-wheeler markets
7.3.21.Policies supporting two and three-wheelers
7.3.22.Electrification is occurring faster in the three-wheeler markets
7.3.23.Micro EV types
7.3.24.European two-wheeler classification
7.3.25.Micro EV characteristics
7.3.26.Battery chemistry choices
7.3.27.Lead-acid vs lithium-ion
7.3.28.Battery cost of two-wheelers in China
7.3.29.Lithium-ion two-wheelers on the rise
7.4.Electric off-road (construction, material handling, marine)
7.4.1.Drivers for Construction Vehicle Electrification
7.4.2.Advantages of / Barriers to Machine Electrification
7.4.3.Performance Advantages of an Electric Excavator
7.4.4.Battery Sizes for Different Vehicle Types
7.4.5.Options for Meeting Power Duty Cycle Power Demand
7.4.6.Chinese OEMs Large Battery Excavators
7.4.7.Battery Requirements in Construction: Performance
7.4.8.Construction Equipment Electrification Opportunities (1)
7.4.9.Construction Equipment Electrification Opportunities (2)
7.4.10.Known construction & battery supplier relationships (1)
7.4.11.Known construction & battery supplier relationships (2)
7.4.12.Key performance indicators for train battery systems
7.4.13.Battery Chemistry Benchmarking for Trains
7.4.14.Operational Energy Demand for Battery Sizing
7.4.15.Battery System Suppliers to Rail OEMs
7.4.16.Toshiba LTO Battery Rail Projects & Market
7.4.17.Forsee Power Target Light Rail Applications
7.4.18.Rail Battery System Prices by Chemistry US$/kWh
7.4.19.Intralogistics shifting to Li-ion
7.4.20.Intralogistics Li-ion partnerships
7.4.21.Li-ion intralogistics chemistries
7.4.22.Summary of market drivers for electric & hybrid marine
7.4.23.Overview of policy for maritime batteries
7.4.24.Shifting Emission Policy Focus
7.4.25.The importance of batteries in hybrid systems
7.4.26.Why marine batteries are unique
7.4.27.Marine systems: stacks & strings scaling to MWh
7.4.28.Marine battery system specs
7.4.29.Battery chemistries for marine applications
8.FORECASTS
8.1.Electric car Li-ion demand forecast (GWh)
8.2.Electric bus, truck and van battery forecast (GWh)
8.3.Micro EV Li-ion demand forecast (GWh)
8.4.Global electric vehicle Li-ion demand (GWh)
8.5.Li-ion forecast by cathode (GWh)
8.6.Cell price forecast
8.7.BEV car pack price
8.8.Electric car Li-ion battery market forecast (US$B)
8.9.On-road EV Li-ion battery market (US$B)
8.10.EV Li-ion battery market (US$B)
8.11.EV Li-ion battery market (US$B)
 

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Slides 402
Forecasts to 2034
ISBN 9781915514868
 

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