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Materialien für Elektrofahrzeuge 2020-2030: IDTechEx

Market value for electric vehicle powertrain materials to reach $47 billion by 2030.

Materialien für Elektrofahrzeuge 2020-2030

Materialanforderungen für Traktionsmotoren, Batteriezellen und -paketen von Elektrofahrzeugen. Batterie-Energiedichte und Motortechnologien mit Materialbedarfstrends, OEM-Strategien und granularen Marktprognosen.


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Traction batteries and motors in electric vehicles (EVs) are very different to the powertrain components of the internal-combustion engine vehicles they replace. Their meteoric rise will lead to much greater demand for several materials markets which otherwise would see only modest growth. For example, while the combustion engine and transmission relies heavily on aluminium and steel alloys, Li-ion batteries alone also require a great deal of nickel, cobalt, aluminium, lithium, copper, insulation, thermal interface materials and much more at the cell and pack level.
 
This comprehensive report from IDTechEx identifies and analyses trends in electric vehicle battery cell and pack-level materials, and electric traction motor materials, to determine the overall materials demand from the construction and future improvements of these components. For each, a granular breakdown is used to forecast each material required and its market value over the next 10 years.
 
An extensive database of electric passenger cars, collated by IDTechEx, is further used to determine trends in the battery cell and pack energy density, energy capacity, cell geometry, cell chemistry, thermal management strategy, motor technology and power output, leading to a comprehensive set of material demands and market value forecasts.
 
 
IDTechEx forecasts over 28 materials used in the construction of electric vehicle powertrains, each with shifting market shares. A rapid increase in demand is seen across several material markets after a small drop in 2020 due to COVID-19 implications for the automotive market. Source: IDTechEx report, Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.
Battery Cell Materials
 
Several of the raw materials used in electric vehicle components have questionable mining practices or volatile supply chains, leading OEMs to change the way they make batteries and motors. A commonly used cathode material, cobalt, has famously questionable mining practices. It is also a very expensive material with its supply and mining confined to a large majority in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo. As a result, OEMs are trending towards the use of higher nickel cathode chemistries such as NMC 622 and even NMC 811 in some new vehicles.
 
Another significant trend is the phase-out of LFP cathodes. The Chinese electric car market was, up until 2018, predominantly using LFP cathodes. This has now transitioned so that in 2019 only 3 % of cars were using LFP, however, the introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in China using LFP could upset this trend. Despite the reduction in market share of materials like cobalt, the rapidly increasing market for electric vehicles will drive demand for cobalt and many other materials drastically higher over the next 10 years.
 
Materials forecasted for the cells include aluminium, carbon, cobalt, copper, graphite, iron, lithium, manganese, nickel, silicon, phosphorous, polyvinylidene fluoride and polyolefins.
 
Battery Pack Materials
 
Cell energy density is increasing, but we also see that pack energy density is increasing. With manufacturers improving their battery designs, the mass of materials being used around the cells is steadily being reduced allowing for a lighter battery pack or more cells to be used for the same mass. This can be largely affected by the choice of material for the enclosure, with OEMs becoming more interested in composite utilisation. The thermal management strategy also has a significant impact. This includes the choice of active or passive cooling variants, thermal interface materials, thermal runaway prevention and fire-retardant materials. With greater energy density and consumer demand for fast charging, more effective thermal management is required in a smaller and lighter package. This may lead to a decrease in many battery pack materials per vehicle, but this may be overshadowed by the total market increase for EVs.
 
Pack materials forecasted include aluminium, copper, thermal management materials, thermal interface materials, steel, glass fibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers, inter-cell insulation and compression foams and pack fire-retardant materials.
 
 
IDTechEx considered over 150 battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold between 2015-2019 to show trends in energy density by thermal management strategy and by year. Full data available in IDTechEx report, Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.
 
Electric Motor Materials
 
Alongside the batteries, the demand for electric traction motors will increase rapidly over the next 10 years, not just from the overall vehicle sales but also with the rise of vehicles using more than one motor, specifically in premium cars and heavy-duty vehicles. Critical to materials, the majority of the EV market is using motors with permanent magnet-based rotors. These materials typically contain several rare-earths such as neodymium and dysprosium, both of which have a very geographically constrained supply chain and a volatile price history. Whilst they are in a relatively small quantity in the motor, they can make up a very significant portion of the cost of the motor. We are seeing some manufacturers like Renault using motors with no magnets, whereas Tesla has transitioned to a magnet-based motor for the potential improvements in efficiency which can increase range and hence, reduce the requirements for other critical battery materials.
 
Motor materials forecasted include aluminium, boron, cobalt, copper, dysprosium, iron, neodymium, niobium, silicon-steel, terbium and praseodymium.
 
 
Report Summary
 
Materials demand from the following EV components and parts are considered:
 
  • Battery Cells
Cathodes
Anodes
Electrolyte, separators, binders and casings
 
  • Battery Packs
Interconnects
Housings
Thermal management
Thermal interface materials
Inter-cell pads and insulation
Fire-retardant papers/blankets
 
  • Electric Motors
Magnets
Windings
Rotor and stator construction
Housings
High voltage cables
 
Market assessments:
  • Trends in battery cell composition and energy density: cathodes, anodes, electrolyte, binders and casings
  • Battery cell and pack design with automotive use cases and energy density breakdowns by cell type and thermal management strategy
  • Thermal interface materials for electric vehicle batteries
  • Battery pack enclosure and interconnect materials
  • Electric motor technologies and trends
  • The use of magnetic and rare-earth materials in motors
  • Motor winding geometries and materials
  • Automotive traction motor use cases and market breakdown
 
Forecast lines, material demand and market value (2020-2030):
  • Cathode materials
  • Anode materials
  • Battery cell materials
  • Thermal interface materials
  • Battery pack materials
  • Combined cell and pack materials
  • Motor magnet materials
  • Motor winding materials
  • Total motor construction materials
  • High voltage cable copper and insulation
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Materials for Electric Vehicles
1.2.Materials Considered in this Report
1.3.Electric Vehicle Forecast
1.4.Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down
1.5.Materials for EV Powertrain
1.6.Market Value for Materials in EV Powertrain
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What is an Electric Vehicle?
2.2.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.3.Electric Cars: Typical Specs
2.4.Materials for Electric Vehicles
2.5.Materials Considered in this Report
3.ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERIES
3.1.Li-ion Battery Chemistry
3.1.1.What is a Li-ion Battery?
3.1.2.Why Lithium?
3.1.3.Li-ion Cathode Overview
3.1.4.Li-ion Anode Overview
3.1.5.Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down
3.1.6.Changing Too Fast?
3.2.Cell Costs and Energy Density
3.2.1.Drivers for High-Nickel Cathodes
3.2.2.EV Models with NMC 811
3.2.3.811 Commercialisation Examples
3.2.4.Cell Energy Density Timeline
3.2.5.Energy Density of Li-ion Cathodes
3.3.Materials for Li-ion Batteries
3.3.1.Potential for Raw Material Shortage
3.3.2.Sustainability of Li-ion Materials
3.3.3.Questionable Mining Practice
3.3.4.Drivers and Restraints
3.3.5.Li-ion Raw Materials in Perspective
3.3.6.How Does Material Intensity Change?
3.3.7.Inactive Material Intensities (exc. casings)
3.4.Raw Materials
3.4.1.The Elements Used in Li-ion Batteries
3.4.2.The Li-ion Supply Chain
3.4.3.Demand for Li-ion is Shifting
3.4.4.Raw Materials Critical to Li-ion
3.4.5.Li-ion Raw Material Geographical Distribution
3.5.Lithium
3.5.1.Lithium Introduction
3.5.2.Where is Lithium Located?
3.5.3.Lithium Extraction from Brines
3.5.4.Lithium Extraction from Hard Rock
3.5.5.Lithium Producers
3.5.6.Lithium End Uses
3.5.7.Forecasted Lithium Demand
3.6.Cobalt
3.6.1.Introduction to Cobalt
3.6.2.Cobalt in the DRC
3.6.3.Questionable Mining Practice
3.6.4.Cobalt Supply
3.6.5.Cobalt price trend
3.6.6.Public Scrutiny of Cobalt Supply
3.6.7.Changing Intensity of Cobalt in Li-ion
3.6.8.Forecasted Cobalt Demand
3.7.Nickel
3.7.1.An Overview of Nickel
3.7.2.Geographic Breakdown of Nickel Mining
3.7.3.Nickel: Supply Shortage?
3.7.4.Forecast Nickel Demand
3.8.Cell Components
3.9.Cathodes
3.9.1.Cathode Material Intensities
3.9.2.Geographical Breakdown of Cathode Production
3.9.3.Chemistry Production Spread
3.9.4.NMC Development: from 111 to 811
3.9.5.Outlook - Which Cathodes Will Be Used?
3.9.6.Cathode Demand Forecast
3.9.7.Price Assumptions
3.9.8.Cathode Material Market Value
3.10.Anodes
3.10.1.Introduction to Graphite
3.10.2.Natural or Synthetic in LIB?
3.10.3.Natural Graphite for LIBs
3.10.4.Natural Graphite Mining
3.10.5.Where Will New Capacity Come From?
3.10.6.Graphite Anode Suppliers
3.10.7.Forecast Graphite Demand
3.10.8.Introduction to Silicon Anodes
3.10.9.Benefits from Incorporating Silicon
3.10.10.Electrode Material Trends
3.10.11.How Much Does Silicon Improve Energy Density?
3.10.12.Anode Demand Forecast
3.10.13.Anode Material Prices
3.10.14.Anode Market Value Forecast
3.11.Electrolyte, Separators, Binders and Casings
3.11.1.What is in a Cell?
3.11.2.Li-ion Electrolytes
3.11.3.Separators
3.11.4.Polyolefin Separator
3.11.5.Binders
3.11.6.Binders - Aqueous vs Non-aqueous
3.12.Total Battery Cell Materials Forecast
3.12.1.Battery Cell Materials Forecast
3.12.2.Battery Cell Materials Market Value Forecast
3.13.Li-ion Demand and Cost Analysis
3.13.1.Largest Gigafactories
3.13.2.Panasonic and Tesla
3.13.3.Can Li-ion Supply Meet Demand?
3.13.4.How Long to Build a Gigafactory?
3.13.5.Gigafactory Investment in Europe
3.13.6.Chinese EV Battery Value Chain
3.13.7.The Price of Li-ion Cells
3.13.8.Bottom-up Cell Cost Analysis
3.13.9.Considering the Cost of NMC 811
3.13.10.Commodity Price Volatility
3.13.11.Cars - Li-ion Cell and Pack Price Assumptions 2020-2030
3.13.12.BEV Cell Price Forecast
3.13.13.OEM Views on Battery Prices
3.13.14.Li-ion Batteries
3.14.Battery Cell and Pack Design
3.14.1.More Than One Type of Cell Design
3.14.2.Cell Format Considerations
3.14.3.Which Cell Format to Choose?
3.14.4.Comparison of Commercial Cell Formats
3.14.5.Differences Between Cell, Module and Pack
3.14.6.Stacking Methods
3.14.7.Automotive Format Choices
3.14.8.Passenger Car Market
3.14.9.Other Vehicle Categories
3.15.Thermal Interface Materials for Lithium-ion Battery Packs
3.15.1.Introduction to Thermal Interface Materials (TIM)
3.15.2.Overview of TIM by Type
3.15.3.Thermal Management - Pack and Module Overview
3.15.4.Thermal Interface Material (TIM) - Pack and Module Overview
3.15.5.Switching to Gap Fillers Rather than Pads
3.15.6.EV Use-Case Examples
3.15.7.Battery Pack TIM - Options and Market Comparison
3.15.8.The Silicone Dilemma for the Automotive Industry
3.15.9.The Big 5 in Silicone
3.15.10.TIM: Silicone Alternatives
3.15.11.TIM: the Conductive Players
3.15.12.Notable Acquisitions for TIM Players
3.15.13.TIM for Electric Vehicle Battery Packs - Trends
3.15.14.TIM for EV Battery Packs - Forecast by Category
3.15.15.TIM for EV Battery Packs - Forecast by TIM Type
3.15.16.Thermal Management for Electric Vehicles
3.15.17.Thermal Interface Materials
3.16.Battery Enclosures
3.16.1.Lightweighting Battery Enclosures
3.16.2.From Steel to Aluminium
3.16.3.Latest Composite Battery Enclosures
3.16.4.Alternatives to Phenolic Resins
3.16.5.Are Polymers Suitable Housings?
3.16.6.Towards Composite Enclosures?
3.16.7.Battery Enclosure Materials Summary
3.16.8.Cost Effectiveness of a CFRP Enclosure
3.16.9.Extra Reinforcement Needed?
3.16.10.EMI Shielding for Composite Enclosures
3.17.Pack Fire Safety
3.17.1.What Level of Prevention?
3.17.2.Module and Pack Thermal Insulation Materials
3.17.3.Pack Level Prevention Materials
3.17.4.Emerging Fire Safety Solutions
3.18.Inter-Cell Components
3.18.1.Inter-Cell Components
3.18.2.Insulation Materials Comparison
3.18.3.Inter-Cell Materials: Cylindrical Cells
3.18.4.Inter-Cell Materials: Tesla Model 3/Y
3.18.5.Cylindrical Cell Mass Assembly
3.18.6.Superbike Battery Holder
3.18.7.Emerging Routes - Phase Change Materials (PCMs)
3.18.8.Inter-Cell Materials: Prismatic Cells
3.18.9.Inter-Cell Materials: Pouch Cells
3.18.10.Insulating Cell-to-Cell Foams
3.18.11.Polyurethane Compression Pads
3.19.Automotive Use Cases
3.20.Battery Pack Design
3.20.1.Lack of Standardisation in Terms of Battery Packs
3.20.2.Audi e-tron
3.20.3.BMW i3
3.20.4.Chevrolet Bolt
3.20.5.Hyundai Kona
3.20.6.Jaguar I-PACE
3.20.7.Tesla Model S P85D
3.20.8.Tesla Model 3/Y
3.20.9.OEM Pack Design Summary
3.20.10.Passenger Cars: Pack Energy Density
3.20.11.Passenger Cars: Pack Energy Density Trends
3.20.12.Cell vs Pack Energy Density
3.20.13.Energy Density Forecast
3.21.Electrical Interconnects
3.21.1.Copper and Aluminium Content in Battery Interconnections
3.21.2.Tesla Model S P85D: Cylindrical Cell Connection
3.21.3.Tesla Model S P85D: Inter-module Connection
3.21.4.Tesla Model S P85D: Copper Content in HV 2/0 Cable
3.21.5.Tesla Model S P85D: BMS Wiring
3.21.6.Tesla Model S P85D Summary: Battery Interconnects
3.21.7.Nissan Leaf 24 kWh: Pouch Cell Connection
3.21.8.Nissan Leaf 24 kWh: Module Layout
3.21.9.Nissan Leaf 24 kWh: Module Interconnection Busbars
3.21.10.Nissan Leaf 24 kWh: High Voltage Cables and BMS Wiring
3.21.11.Nissan Leaf 24 kWh Summary: Battery Interconnects
3.21.12.BMW i3 94Ah: Prismatic Cell Connection
3.21.13.BMW i3 94Ah: Inter-module Cables and BMS Wirings
3.21.14.BMW i3 94Ah Summary: Battery Interconnects
3.21.15.Summary of Materials in Battery Interconnects
3.22.Battery Pack Materials
3.22.1.Battery Pack Components
3.22.2.Battery Pack Materials excl. Cells
3.22.3.Battery Pack Materials Forecast
3.22.4.Battery Pack Materials Prices
3.22.5.Battery Pack Materials Forecast
3.23.Total Battery Material Forecasts
3.23.1.Total Material Requirements for EV Batteries
3.23.2.Battery Materials Market Value
3.23.3.Total Material Requirements for EV Batteries
4.ELECTRIC MOTORS
4.1.Types of Electric Motor
4.1.1.DC Brushless Motor (BLDC)
4.1.2.Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM)
4.1.3.Induction Motors
4.1.4.AC Induction Motor (ACIM)
4.1.5.Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM)
4.1.6.Reluctance Motors
4.1.7.Reluctance Motor: Working Principle
4.1.8.Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
4.1.9.Shift Towards PMAR
4.2.Benchmarking, OEM Options and Trends for Electric Traction Motors
4.2.1.Comparison of the Construction and Merits
4.2.2.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
4.2.3.Automakers Have Converged on PMSM
4.2.4.Passenger Car Global Trends
4.2.5.Outlook for Electric Motor Designs
4.2.6.Overview of Electric Motor Market Share (2019)
4.3.Materials for Electric Motors
4.3.1.Which Materials are Required for Electric Motors?
4.4.Magnetic Materials
4.4.1.Magnetic Material Distribution in Rotors
4.4.2.Other Permanent Magnet Configurations
4.4.3.OEM Approaches
4.4.4.Magnet Composition for Motors
4.4.5.Mining of Rare-Earth Metals
4.4.6.China's Control of Rare-Earths
4.4.7.Reducing Rare-Earth Usage in Electric Motors
4.4.8.Materials in Motor Magnets Forecast
4.4.9.Rare-earths in Motors Forecast
4.4.10.Motor Magnet Material Prices
4.4.11.Market Value for Motor Magnets Forecast
4.5.Rotor and Stator Windings
4.5.1.Aluminium vs Copper in Rotors
4.5.2.Round Wire vs Hairpins for Copper in Stators
4.5.3.Round vs Bar Windings: OEMs
4.5.4.Aluminium vs Copper Windings
4.5.5.Example: SRMs with Aluminium Windings?
4.5.6.Copper and Aluminium in Windings Forecast
4.6.Automotive Use Cases
4.6.1.Audi e-tron
4.6.2.BMW i3 2016
4.6.3.Toyota Prius 2004 to 2010
4.6.4.Tesla Induction Motor
4.6.5.Tesla PM Motor
4.7.Total Motor Material Forecasts
4.7.1.Total Material Requirements for EV Motors
4.7.2.Total Market Value for EV Motor Materials
5.HIGH VOLTAGE CABLING
5.1.High Voltage Powertrain Cables
5.2.Properties of High Voltage Cables
5.3.Automotive Examples
5.4.High Voltage Cable Forecast
6.TOTAL MATERIAL FORECASTS
6.1.Materials for EV Powertrains
6.2.Market Value for Materials in EV Powertrain
7.SUMMARY OF FORECASTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
7.1.Cathode Demand Forecast
7.2.Price Assumptions
7.3.Cathode Material Market Value
7.4.Anode Demand Forecast
7.5.Anode Material Prices
7.6.Anode Market Value Forecast
7.7.Battery Cell Materials Forecast
7.8.Battery Cell Materials Market Value Forecast
7.9.TIM for EV Battery Packs - Forecast by Category
7.10.TIM for EV Battery Packs - Forecast by TIM Type
7.11.Battery Pack Materials Forecast
7.12.Battery Pack Materials Prices
7.13.Battery Pack Materials Forecast
7.14.Total Material Requirements for EV Batteries
7.15.Battery Materials Market Value
7.16.Total Material Requirements for EV Batteries
7.17.Materials in Motor Magnets Forecast
7.18.Rare-earths in Motors Forecast
7.19.Motor Magnet Material Prices
7.20.Market Value for Motor Magnets Forecast
7.21.Total Material Requirements for EV Motors
7.22.Total Market Value for EV Motor Materials
7.23.Total Material Requirements for EV Motors
7.24.High Voltage Cable Forecast
7.25.Materials for EV Powertrains
7.26.Market Value for Materials in EV Powertrain
7.27.Electric Vehicle Battery Capacity Assumptions
7.28.Electric Vehicle Motor Power Assumptions
7.29.Electric Vehicle Forecast Assumptions
7.30.Electric Vehicle Forecast
7.31.EV Materials Forecast: Methodology & Assumptions
7.32.Impact of COVID-19 on Forecasts
 

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