Global electric light commercial vehicle market to grow to $203 billion by 2041 - IDTechEx
Astute businesses are recognising that electrifying their light commercial vehicle fleets is not only a successful mechanism by which they can demonstrate their green credentials to their customers, but is also, increasingly, the prudent economic decision.
Whilst there are differing motivations for commercial vehicle electrification in each of the key geographical markets, there are strong drivers in each which are pushing them towards the rapid adoption of electric motors in place of conventional internal combustion engines.
The report contains market forecasts outlining eLCV sales, penetration, market revenue, and battery demand. This report will be of great value to companies across the automotive industry including OEMs, battery manufactures, electric drivetrain parts and systems suppliers, materials, and research organisations, charging infrastructure developers, government agencies and companies with significant LCV fleets.
IDTechEx Electric, Hybrid & Fuel Cell Light Commercial Vehicles 2021-2041 forecast segmentation:
- By technology: battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and fuel cell electric (FCEV) light commercial vehicles
- By geography: North America, China, Europe (EU + EFTA) and ROW as well as an aggregate global forecast.
- 20-year outlook: sales (units), market penetration (%), market revenue ($), and battery demand (GWh).
Also included with the report:
- 2021-2041 eLCV sales forecasts for each European country with greater than 75,000 LCV units sales p.a. (i.e. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK) and Norway.
Along with the forecasts, the Electric, Hybrid & Fuel Cell Light Commercial Vehicles 2021-2041 report provides a background to the addressable LCV market in each of the key regions; describes the current state of the eLCV market in each of these regions, highlighting the major players; and looks at the distinct drivers that are promoting the growth of electric light commercial vehicles including total cost of ownership considerations.
European Light Commercial Vehicle Sales 2019
The LCV market is uniquely positioned for the rapid uptake of electric vehicles for several reasons, which include:
- LCV purchase decisions are commonly made on a total cost of operation (TCO) basis. The significant operational cost saving of electricity, in place of diesel, as a fuel is incorporated into the decision-making process of an LCV purchaser to a much greater degree than is the case for private customers in the electric passenger car market, where upfront cost is more often the determining factor. Where the TCO benefit of an electric vehicle can be demonstrated, it becomes a competitive advantage for operators to run electric vehicles. For smaller vans there is evidence that this is already the case. For larger vans, TCO advantage is dependent on the level of government support through purchase grants.
Cumulative Small Van Cost ($ thousands)
- Fleet managers have a detailed knowledge of the daily duty requirements of their vehicles. As LCV operators understand the daily mileage they require from their vehicles, range anxiety should not be an issue for the LCV market. OEMs must work with their customers, pre-sale, to understand firstly if their vehicle can meet the daily duty demand in the worst case scenario (cold, fully laden, congested traffic, etc.) and further to this, to work with them to optimise the battery size and charging strategy to meet their customers' needs, with the effect of reducing the upfront cost of the vehicle and minimising the weight of the installed battery.
- Along with the concerns common to all combustion driven vehicles around fuel efficiency / CO2 emission and the impact of this on the global climate, a further driver for eLCV is the effect of exhaust emissions on local air quality. LCVs are often employed in urban environments as a key element in the logistics chain. There is growing evidence of the detrimental impact that exhaust pollutant emissions, especially NOx and PM, have on local air quality and public health. As a direct result, many large cities are in the process of introducing mechanisms to limit the access of polluting vehicles to city centres. Combustion engine driven vehicles will increasingly have to pay to access low emission zones within cities, vastly increasing their operating costs. Urbanisation and the continued growth of e-commerce is set to increase demand for the delivery of goods, but the tariff on exhaust emissions in congested urban areas will make eLCV the cheapest way to meet the demand.
The total cost of ownership is important to LCV purchasers and will be a driving force for uptake, however in the short term IDTechEx expect there to be a period of progressively larger pilot projects, conducted by commercial fleet operators to establish that eLCVs meet the businesses' operational requirements. This period of validation will be necessary for fleet operators to determine that the vehicle range, load volume capacity, payload weight and reliability in real-world operation are sufficient to replace the existing diesel fleet. Once this has been shown, the widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCV will begin.
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