| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. | Report Overview |
| 1.2. | Executive Summary (1) |
| 1.3. | Executive Summary (2) |
| 1.4. | Global Bus and Coach Vehicle Production |
| 1.5. | Categorization of Drivetrain Terms |
| 1.6. | Electric Buses - a Global Outlook |
| 1.7. | Bus Categories and Electrification Rates |
| 1.8. | Electric Buses - Key Players |
| 1.9. | Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in China |
| 1.10. | Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in Europe |
| 1.11. | Battery Capacity in Buses Increasing |
| 1.12. | Regional Battery Sizing Trends |
| 1.13. | Chinese Market Favours LFP, European Market More Mixed |
| 1.14. | Motor Mounting - Central or Axle Mounted |
| 1.15. | Motor Benchmarking and Metrics for Buses |
| 1.16. | Forecast Commentary - Regional |
| 1.17. | Electric Bus Sales Forecast to Regionally Diversify by 2045 |
| 1.18. | Electric Bus Sales Historic & Forecast By Region - 2015-2045 |
| 1.19. | Forecast Commentary - Drivetrain |
| 1.20. | Electric Bus Sales by Drivetrain 2015-2045 |
| 1.21. | Battery Demand and Market Value 2024-2045 |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC BUSES |
| 2.1. | Overview |
| 2.1.1. | The Core Driver for Transport Decarbonization |
| 2.1.2. | Urban Air Quality |
| 2.1.3. | Fossil Fuel Vehicle Sales Bans |
| 2.1.4. | Low and Ultra Low Emissions Zones |
| 2.1.5. | TCO Considerations: Zero Emission Buses |
| 2.2. | Options for Reduced Emissions Buses |
| 2.2.1. | Replacement for ICE - Alternative Drivetrains |
| 2.2.2. | Bus Categories and Electrification |
| 2.2.3. | Transit and City Buses - an Overview |
| 2.2.4. | Coaches - an Overview |
| 2.2.5. | Overview of Bus Types and Specific Challenges to Electrification |
| 2.2.6. | Categorization of Drivetrain Terms |
| 2.2.7. | Options for Reduced Emissions Buses |
| 3. | MARKET OVERVIEW |
| 3.1. | Overview |
| 3.1.1. | Global Markets for Alternative Drivetrain Buses - a Summary |
| 3.1.2. | Global Bus and Coach Vehicle Production |
| 3.1.3. | Global Overview of Bus Fleets |
| 3.1.4. | Electric Buses - a Global Outlook |
| 3.1.5. | Regional Takeaways for Key Regions - (1) |
| 3.1.6. | Regional Takeaways for Key Regions - (2) |
| 3.1.7. | Selected Other Global Developments in Electric Buses |
| 3.2. | Asia - China, Japan, India and South Korea Market Overview |
| 3.2.1. | Historic Sales of E-buses in China 2012-2023 |
| 3.2.2. | NEV Bus Sales - BEB, PHEB and FCEBs |
| 3.2.3. | Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in China |
| 3.2.4. | China - Increasingly Export Led |
| 3.2.5. | Chinese Fuel Cell Bus OEM Market Share 2023 |
| 3.2.6. | Japan - No Domestic Production & Low Imports |
| 3.2.7. | Japan - BYD Order Cancelled Due to Chemical Concerns |
| 3.2.8. | Japan - Fuel Cell Targets |
| 3.2.9. | South Korea - Domestic vs Foreign Buses |
| 3.2.10. | South Korea - Continued FCEB Interest |
| 3.2.11. | South Korea - FCEB Targets |
| 3.2.12. | India |
| 3.2.13. | India - a Large Potential Market with Low Penetration Rates |
| 3.3. | Europe + UK Market Overview |
| 3.3.1. | UK - Fleet Sales Bounce Back Driven by Electric |
| 3.3.2. | UK - ZEBRA and Fleet Shares by Drivetrain |
| 3.3.3. | European Union - an Overview |
| 3.3.4. | Bus Registrations, FCEB, BEB, PHEV in Europe, 2013-2023 |
| 3.3.5. | European Union - Policy Directives |
| 3.3.6. | European Union - Registrations By Region, 2023 |
| 3.3.7. | European Union - Disparity Between City Buses and Coaches |
| 3.3.8. | Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in Europe |
| 3.3.9. | European Union, Market Leaders |
| 3.3.10. | Key Manufacturers in Europe - MAN and Solaris Emerge Strongly From 2023 |
| 3.3.11. | European Union - Domestic Manufacturers on the Rise |
| 3.3.12. | European Union - Fuel Cell Bus Market |
| 3.3.13. | EU JIVE 2 Targets |
| 3.3.14. | EU JIVE 2 - Assessment, Low Bar Targets Not Met |
| 3.3.15. | Van Hool's Exit of the City Bus Market |
| 3.3.16. | Cancelled Orders for Hydrogen City Buses |
| 3.4. | America's Market Overview |
| 3.4.1. | US Market - Overview |
| 3.4.2. | US Market - Bankruptcy of Proterra |
| 3.4.3. | US Market - Challenging Financial Environment |
| 3.4.4. | US Regulatory Landscape |
| 3.4.5. | Transitioning the US Fleet to Zero Emission Buses |
| 3.4.6. | The Cost of US Bus Fleet Transition to Zero Emission |
| 3.4.7. | Latin America - Strong BEB sales |
| 3.4.8. | Latin America - Megacities Drive Growth |
| 4. | BATTERIES FOR BUSES |
| 4.1. | Overview |
| 4.1.1. | Batteries For Buses - Summary |
| 4.1.2. | Li-ion Batteries |
| 4.1.3. | Lithium battery chemistries |
| 4.1.4. | Cathode Comparisons - an Overview |
| 4.1.5. | Cathode - Performance Comparison |
| 4.1.6. | Specific Requirements for Buses |
| 4.1.7. | Pack Location |
| 4.1.8. | Lifetime of Buses - UK Data |
| 4.1.9. | Average Annual Distance |
| 4.1.10. | Differing Cycle Life Requirements for EVs |
| 4.2. | Battery Sizing |
| 4.2.1. | Battery Sizing - a Summary |
| 4.2.2. | Battery Capacity in Buses |
| 4.2.3. | Battery Sizing for Citybuses and Coaches |
| 4.2.4. | Bus Drivetrain Efficiency |
| 4.2.5. | Drag Coefficient, Speed and Body Design |
| 4.2.6. | Efficiencies at Low Speeds |
| 4.2.7. | City Bus Consumption is the Highest |
| 4.2.8. | Battery Size for Buses - Overnight Charging vs End-line Charging |
| 4.2.9. | Long Haul Coach Travel Battery Sizing |
| 4.2.10. | Manufacturer Consumption Claims |
| 4.2.11. | Battery Sizing Trends - Market Analysis |
| 4.3. | Battery Pack Suppliers |
| 4.3.1. | Developments in pack manufacturers |
| 4.3.2. | Chemistries used in electric buses |
| 4.3.3. | Battery Suppliers |
| 4.3.4. | Battery Suppliers and OEM relationships |
| 4.3.5. | Battery Pack Supply Chain Integration Strategies |
| 4.3.6. | Bus Battery Manufacturing - Low Volume Segment of EVs |
| 4.3.7. | LFP the Dominant Chemistry in China |
| 4.3.8. | Evolving Battery Chemistry Choices in Europe |
| 4.3.9. | Selected Developments in Battery Pack Providers |
| 4.3.10. | CATLs New 1.5 Million km Commercial Vehicle Battery |
| 4.3.11. | BYD - 2nd Generation Blade at 190Wh/kg |
| 4.3.12. | Battery Pack Benchmarking: Specific Energy vs Energy Density |
| 4.3.13. | Selected Bus Pack Manufacturers |
| 4.3.14. | BlueBus Solid-state Batteries |
| 5. | THERMAL MANAGEMENT FOR BEBS |
| 5.1. | Thermal Runaway and Fires in EVs |
| 5.2. | Automotive Fire Incidents: OEMs and Situations |
| 5.3. | Fires in Battery Electric Buses |
| 5.4. | Fire Protection Materials: Main Categories |
| 5.5. | Advantages and Disadvantages |
| 5.6. | Density vs Thermal Conductivity - Thermally Insulating |
| 5.7. | Lion Electric - self extinguishing modules |
| 5.8. | Valeo - Hydronic Thermal Management for Batteries |
| 5.9. | Bus Heating |
| 6. | ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR BUSES |
| 6.1. | Overview |
| 6.1.1. | Electric Motors for Buses - Summary |
| 6.1.2. | Summary of Traction Motor Types |
| 6.1.3. | Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits |
| 6.1.4. | Motor Type Power Density Benchmark |
| 6.1.5. | Electric Bus Motor Types |
| 6.1.6. | Traction Motors of Choice for Electric Buses |
| 6.1.7. | AC Induction Motor (ACIM) |
| 6.1.8. | AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle |
| 6.1.9. | Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle |
| 6.1.10. | PMSM and ACIM Comparisons - (1) |
| 6.1.11. | PMSM and ACIM Comparisons - (2) |
| 6.1.12. | Benchmarking and Metrics for Buses |
| 6.1.13. | Multiple Motors: Explained |
| 6.1.14. | Peak vs Continuous Properties |
| 6.1.15. | Efficiency |
| 6.1.16. | Motor Mounting - Central or Axle Mounted |
| 6.1.17. | Motor Mounting - Central or Axle Mounted (2) |
| 6.2. | Motor Suppliers |
| 6.2.1. | Motor Suppliers - Overview |
| 6.2.2. | Convergence on PM |
| 6.2.3. | Motor OEM Supply Relationships |
| 6.2.4. | ZF Group - AxTrax and CeTrax |
| 6.2.5. | ZF Group - New AxTrax and CeTrax Shift to PM Motors |
| 6.2.6. | Voith |
| 6.2.7. | Voith - Central Motors Only |
| 6.2.8. | Traktionssysteme Austria (TSA) |
| 6.2.9. | Siemens/Cummins ACCELERA |
| 6.2.10. | Dana TM4 |
| 6.2.11. | Equipmake - Motors for Retrofitting |
| 6.3. | Motor Cooling Strategies |
| 6.3.1. | Electric motor thermal management overview |
| 6.3.2. | Oil cooling |
| 6.3.3. | Water-glycol cooling |
| 6.3.4. | Commercial Vehicle Motors Power Density Benchmarking |
| 6.3.5. | Commercial Vehicle Motors Torque Density Benchmarking |
| 7. | CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE & TECHNOLOGIES FOR BUSES |
| 7.1. | Overview |
| 7.1.1. | Electric Bus Charging Overview |
| 7.1.2. | Overview of Charging Levels |
| 7.1.3. | Technological Methods Landscape |
| 7.1.4. | Charging: Depot & Opportunity Charging |
| 7.1.5. | Charging Infrastructure For Heavy-Duty Vehicles |
| 7.1.6. | Depot Colocation for Consumer Charging Hubs |
| 7.1.7. | Cost per kW of Installing Chargers |
| 7.1.8. | Heliox: Public Transport & Heavy-Duty Vehicle Charging |
| 7.1.9. | Heliox's 13 MW Charging Network for Electric Buses |
| 7.1.10. | SprintCharge: Battery-Buffered Charging |
| 7.1.11. | ABB's Depot Charging Solutions |
| 7.1.12. | ABB's 600 kW TOSA Flash-Charging |
| 7.2. | Inductive Charging |
| 7.2.1. | Resonant Inductive Coupling - The Principle Behind Wireless EV Charging |
| 7.2.2. | Wireless Charging Overview |
| 7.2.3. | Inductive Charging for Heavy-Duty Applications |
| 7.2.4. | InductEV: High-Power Wireless Charging |
| 7.2.5. | Case Study: Wireless Charging for Electric Bus Fleets |
| 7.2.6. | WAVE - Wireless Charging for Electric Buses |
| 7.2.7. | WAVE Wireless Charging Impact on Vehicle Cost |
| 7.2.8. | Dynamic Wireless Charging Remains Experimental |
| 7.2.9. | Dynamic Charging Trials Underway |
| 7.3. | Battery Swapping |
| 7.3.1. | Battery Swapping for Electric Buses |
| 7.3.2. | Proposed Implementation - Quick Charger Machine |
| 7.3.3. | Segmentation of Battery Storage on Buses Poses Challenge for Swapping |
| 8. | FUEL CELL ELECTRIC BUSES |
| 8.1. | Fuel Cell Buses - New Markets May Boost Low Sales |
| 8.2. | Main Advantages / Disadvantages of Fuel Cell Buses |
| 8.3. | Introduction to fuel cells |
| 8.4. | Fuel Cell Bus Schematics |
| 8.5. | What is a Fuel Cell Vehicle? |
| 8.6. | 30 Years of FCB Development |
| 8.7. | Fuel Cell Bus Example Specifications |
| 8.8. | Solaris - Record Order for Ballard Fuel Cells |
| 8.9. | Solaris Urbino 12 Hydrogen Bus |
| 8.10. | CaetanoBus H2.City Gold |
| 8.11. | Toyota Motor Europe |
| 8.12. | 1000km Hydrogen Coaches |
| 8.13. | SAFRA Businova Hydrogen |
| 8.14. | Wrightbus StreetDeck Hydroliner |
| 8.15. | ADL Enviro400 FCEV |
| 8.16. | United Fuel Cell System R&D (Beijing) Co. |
| 8.17. | Toyota SORA Fuel Cell Bus |
| 8.18. | Structure of Toyota fuel cell bus |
| 8.19. | Hyundai ELEC CITY Fuel Cell Bus |
| 8.20. | Iveco Fuel Cell Buses (Hyundai fuel cells) |
| 8.21. | New Flyer Xcelsior CHARGE H2 |
| 8.22. | ElDorado National AXESS Fuel Cell Bus |
| 8.23. | ElDorado National AXESS Schematic |
| 8.24. | Van Hool |
| 8.25. | Green H2 for FCEBs to be 'Green' |
| 8.26. | System Efficiency Between BEVs and FCEVs |
| 8.27. | FCEB H2 Consumption Benchmarking |
| 9. | PHEV AND HYDROGEN INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES |
| 9.1. | End of PHEV Buses |
| 9.2. | A New Lease of Life For the Combustion Engine? |
| 9.3. | H2-ICE Player Landscape |
| 9.4. | H2-ICE Efficiency vs FCEV |
| 9.5. | Hydrogen Combustion Engine, ZEV (Zero-emission Vehicle) or Not? |
| 9.6. | IDTechEx's View on Hydrogen ICE |
| 10. | BENCHMARKING ELECTRIC BUS DRIVETRAINS |
| 10.1. | Overview |
| 10.1.1. | FCEB and BEB Are the Main Options |
| 10.1.2. | Battery Electric Buses and Fuel Cell Electric Buses: Rival or Complementary? |
| 10.2. | TCO Analysis - CAPEX & OPEX |
| 10.2.1. | Purchase Costs - FCEB |
| 10.2.2. | Volume Production to Decrease FCEV Cost |
| 10.2.3. | US Fuel Cell Buses: Price 2010-2023 |
| 10.2.4. | US Buses: Capex Cost 2015-2023 by Drivetrain |
| 10.2.5. | Purchase Costs - BEB |
| 10.2.6. | Comparison of Operational Costs |
| 10.2.7. | Total Costs of Ownership Comparison |
| 10.2.8. | BEV vs FCEV Running Costs and Efficiency |
| 10.2.9. | Real World Efficiency Data Comparisons - Tyrol, Italy |
| 10.2.10. | Can BEV and FCEV Coexist? |
| 10.2.11. | Infrastructure Costs for BEBs vs FCEBs |
| 10.2.12. | Comparison Hydrogen Fuel Cost vs Diesel Cost |
| 10.3. | Range and Route Suitability |
| 10.3.1. | Will Battery Improvements make Fuel Cell Buses Obsolete? - (1) |
| 10.3.2. | Will Battery Improvements make Fuel Cell Buses Obsolete? - (2) |
| 10.3.3. | Will Battery Improvements make Fuel Cell Buses Obsolete? - (3) |
| 10.3.4. | Will Battery Improvements make Fuel Cell Buses Obsolete? -(4) |
| 10.3.5. | Will Battery Improvements make Fuel Cell Buses Obsolete? - (5) |
| 10.3.6. | NREL Fuel Cell Bus Evaluations 2023 - (1) |
| 10.3.7. | NREL Fuel Cell Bus Evaluations 2023 - (2) |
| 10.3.8. | NREL Fuel Cell Bus Long-Term Stack Performance Data |
| 10.3.9. | Example Analysis: Foothill Transit |
| 10.3.10. | Delivering the Required Duty Milage |
| 11. | FORECASTS |
| 11.1. | Forecast Commentary - Regional |
| 11.2. | Electric Bus Sales Forecast to Regionally Diversify by 2045 |
| 11.3. | Electric Bus Sales Historic & Forecast By Region - 2015-2045 |
| 11.4. | Forecast Commentary - Drivetrain |
| 11.5. | Electric Bus Sales by Drivetrain 2015-2045 |
| 11.6. | Electric Bus Battery Demand (GWh) 2024-2045 |
| 11.7. | Electric Bus Market Value 2024-2045 |