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Electric Buses 2020-2030

Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

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Electric Buses Reinvented: $265 Billion Market
This report of over 200 information-packed pages is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx report on electric buses. Prepared by respected analysts, it benchmarks buses and other forms of electric vehicle and technologies to reveal the tipping points and radical innovations arriving soon. Daimler and Toyota have recently instituted crash programs on pure electric vehicles: China has done a U turn on hybrid buses that do not plug in. Implications? See the league table of largest EV makers and how more and more of them make buses. The killer blow for new vehicles is lower price up front: see when each bus type hits this.
Technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons with a unique technology roadmap to 2040. Only in this report do you see the full picture of where we are headed - even to energy independent buses (one already on sale) and then energy positive buses (we propose a design). See how they will be leveraging technologies going commercial next year outside the bus industry. Learn how the bus is being reinvented as many other things from the trolley bus that works pure electric where there is no catenary to the traffic-straddling bus and many forms of road train from "Bus Rapid Transit" to "Autonomous Rail Transit" that does not use rails. Autonomy is a focus of the report, particularly explaining the design and future of the small merged car/taxi/buses being trialled - another new category.
In 2010 virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later very few will. Why? Implications for the value chain? As if that is not enough, most componentry, systems and bodywork is being radically changed. For example what comes after the monocoque body now replacing the chassis? Why is power electronics becoming more important than batteries? In this business, simply extrapolating the past is useless.
The approach is creative and predictive way beyond the blinkered view given by traditional box ticking market research. Ongoing Interviews are carried out globally by PhD level multilingual technologists. The Executive Summary and Conclusions clarifies the extreme melodrama of what is now happening. New infograms explain why car sales will peak globally and how buses benefit. Forecasts for 2019-2030 bus type and region explain major regional differences. Learn why 30 years of fuel cell bus trials continue whereas almost every type of bus is now available commercially as pure electric and hybrid without a fuel cell. Understand benefits and the future.
The Introduction explains how the move to cities boosts buses: many detailed graphs are presented. Learn efficiency of different modes in cities. Four key factors are shown to drive change in type and number of buses bought to 2040. See the issues of energy use, emissions, cost savings and progress to energy independence. See statistics for the commercial vehicle and bus business.
Chapter 3 China analyses its dominance and global rollout of electric buses. Yutong and BYD are profiled and others compared. Chapter 4 India appraises its recent decision to replace 150,000 diesel buses very quickly. Chapters 5 and 6 are Americas. Chapter 7 Europe.
Chapter 8 is School Buses: newly significant - numbers in the USA are large and, in China, potentially large. Statistics reveal many strong reasons for going autonomous. Chapter 9 is a tour de force of the technologies and their rapid change with reasons, predictions and more. Fuel cells, structural electronics, many new forms of power electronics, more motors per vehicle, autonomy, energy harvesting, supercapacitors replacing batteries, new charging options, software and services- it is all here with new examples.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Purpose of this report
1.2.Why adopt buses?
1.3.Types of bus currently on sale
1.4.New types of bus entering the market are autonomous
1.5.Buses population worldwide by types 2025
1.6.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
1.7.Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
1.8.Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now
1.9.China buses go global: cost advantages
1.10.China cost advantage facilitates market share
1.11.1.Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
1.11.2.Pure electric bus delivery completion dates 2020-2040
1.11.3.Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price 2020-2040
1.12.Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
1.12.1.Electric bus market forecast 2019-2030 number (thousand)
1.12.2.Electric bus market forecast 2019-2030 unit price $k
1.12.3.Electric bus market forecast 2019-2030 $ billion market value
1.12.4.Electric bus number by region
1.13.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
1.14.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
1.15.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
1.16.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022
1.17.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024
1.18.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026
1.19.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2027/2028
1.20.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030
1.21.Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
1.22.Record bus range
1.23.NTU Singapore and Volvo unveil world's first full size, autonomous electric bus
1.24.Airport shuttle bus thin-film PV roof system
2.1.Prosperity, parking and bad planning
2.2.Global situation: public transport
2.2.1.Cities lead
2.2.2.Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
2.2.3.On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus
2.3.More ambitious EV objectives drive radically new bus technologies
2.3.4.Mobility as a Service MaaS
2.3.5.Charging with vehicle moving and even energy independence
2.4.EV key enabling technologies for 2019-2030
2.4.1.Structural electronics
2.4.2.Electric motor-generators
2.4.3.Here come electrically smart structures
2.4.4.New components and fewer components from electrification and structural electronics
2.4.5.Traction battery systems including and battery charging and swapping
2.4.6.Energy harvesting and regeneration
2.4.8.Fuel cells
2.4.9.Power electronics
2.4.10.Low power electronics, sensors and sensor fusion
2.4.11.Software, connectivity, artificial intelligence
2.4.12.How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs
2.5.What is happening about emissions?
2.5.1.Cheating but improving
2.5.2.Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
2.6.Electric bus dynamics
2.7.Anatomy of the automotive industry
2.7.1.Global automotive production 2017
2.7.2.New commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia
2.8.FAME India
3.1.Yutong and the story of buses in China
3.2.1.Breadth and growth
3.2.2.New car and Skyrail for 2019
3.2.3.Innovation, rapid growth globally
3.3.China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology
3.4.Broad technical advances in electric buses in China
3.5.E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly
3.6.Performance in 2017 compared
3.7.Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses
3.8.Restriction of e-bikes helps buses
3.9.BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout
3.10.Golden Dragon
4.1.Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all
4.2.India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances
5.1.Latin America - large numbers
6.1.Unique mix
6.2.Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
7.1.Example of excellence: Solaris Bus and Coach Poland
7.2.Visedo PowerDRUM
7.3.ASSURED project for fast charging
7.4.BlueSG announce shuttle bus with super capacitors and flash-charging
7.5.ADL/BYD double decker
8.1.North America
8.1.2.School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
8.1.3.US school bus statistics 2018
8.1.5.Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
8.1.6.Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
8.1.7.US leading school bus manufacturers
8.2.China: big potential, not much happening yet
8.3.School buses: USA and China compared
8.4.School buses: news, launches and initiatives
9.1.1.Comparison of powertrain options
9.1.2.Batteries Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo
9.1.3.Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes"
9.2.Value chain of hybrid buses
9.3.Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers
9.4.Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles
9.5.Structural electronics will come to buses
9.6.Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus
9.7.UITP and MB summary of bus technologies
9.8.Here come more small buses
9.9.Autonomous bus and bus-taxi
9.9.1.Overview concept
9.9.3.Large smart windows needed
9.10.Electric traction motors for buses in context
9.10.2.Example BYD
9.10.3.No differential or prop shaft
9.10.4.Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
9.10.5.Equipmake PM spoke motor for buses in 2020
9.11.Traction batteries
9.12.Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
9.13.Traction supercapacitors in buses
9.14.Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
9.15.Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus
9.16.1.Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars
9.16.2.Hardware replaced by software & content
9.16.3.Hype curve for autonomy today
9.16.4.Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
9.16.5.Gateway autonomous bus UK
9.16.6.IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services
9.16.7.Huge scope for media
9.17.Charging the battery
9.17.2.Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery
9.17.3.Contactless charging
9.18.Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
9.19.Radical innovation
9.19.1.Transit Elevated Bus TEV: scrapped but interesting
9.19.2.Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit
9.20.Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
9.20.2.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
9.20.3.Energy positive large buses will come

Report Statistics

Slides 207
Forecasts to 2030

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