Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021-2040: IDTechEx

Battery electric city buses a $25 billion market in 2030

Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021-2040

Battery Electric, Plug-in Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses in China, Europe, US and India: Forecasts, Technology, Company Assessments


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The bus market is evolving rapidly. The pressing need for cities around the world to improve air quality, alongside commitments by many governments to address climate change, are powering efforts to deliver zero on-road emission city bus fleet solutions. Over the next decade, these efforts will see major cities increasingly refuse to purchase anything but zero emission buses, as they deliver on promised zero emission zones to protect the health of their citizens.
 
Bus technology will focus primarily on battery electric buses (BEV), with plug-in hybrids (PHEV) rapidly losing already low market shares, and the much hyped fuel cell powertrain (FCEV) remaining a small fraction of the market because they fail to offer the same total cost of ownership benefit as BEV.
The latest edition "Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021- 2040" offers our in-depth analysis of this evolving market, highlighting major developments over the past year, and presenting for the first time our extended outlook to 2040 for pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell buses.
 
China has led the world in bus electrification and will continue to do so over the next 20-years. However, as a result of the subsidy phase-outs and the increasing saturation of electric buses in Tier 1 cities, IDTechEx project the electric bus sales in China will stabilise at a lower level than during the subsidy boom years, after the biggest decline yet in 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
 
Source: Industry Associations, IDTechEx
 
Whilst Chinese OEMs will no longer receive large subsidies in China (which have amounted to billions of dollars), the support has already established a world-beating cost base and technology, which is spreading to other countries. For example, Europe sold over 1800 electric buses in 2019, up from around 750 in 2018, with BYD and Yutong as key suppliers. As the Chinese electric bus market saturates, we expect to see an increased presence of Chinese bus OEMs in other bus markets around the world.
 
The 2019 Busworld conference in Belgium left in no doubt that several of the giants of the industry are still primarily promoting diesel buses, and consequently rapidly losing market share (for example former bus leader Daimler). The report details key innovations and future trends from the conference, which included a bus that parked sideways and two pure electric Chinese robot shuttles. Our interviews revealed some gantry charging, leading to batteries of one quarter the cost and size. This report majors on these new developments including successful sales of Chinese robot shuttles and buses sold with in-wheel motors, and Solaris and China rapidly gaining market share by selling the latest technology, value engineered.
 
In 2010, virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later they will be the minority. Why, and what are the implications for the value chain? Componentry, systems, and bodywork are being radically changed. In this report, technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons and IDTechEx's bus technology timeline to 2040. The report includes a chapter devoted to the growing autonomous shuttle market; with increasing interest in autonomous passenger transport, the report offers profiles of current autonomous shuttle developers, explaining the design and future of small merged car / taxi / buses.
 
IDTechEx's research is underpinned by primary research and interviews undertaken around the globe, ongoing interviews are carried out globally by IDTechEx's PhD level multilingual technology analysts.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Purpose of this report
1.2.Industry Terms
1.3.Global Bus Fleet 2020
1.4.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
1.5.Snapshot of Global and Regional Sales Trends
1.6.Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
1.7.Overview of 21 Country Targets
1.8.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city buses by region (Units)
1.9.Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand BEV and PHEV city buses (GWh)
1.10.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
1.11.Forecast 2020-2040: Global city bus sales (Units)
1.12.Impact of coronavirus on forecasts
1.13.Primary Conclusions: Manufacturers
1.14.Primary Conclusions: Vested Interests
1.15.Primary Conclusions: Technology
1.16.Expectation of Lower Up-front Price 2020-2030
1.17.Key global forecast takeaways
1.18.Key regional forecast takeaways
1.19.End of PHEV Buses
1.20.Assumptions
1.21.Assumptions - unit cost and battery size
1.22.Fuel cell city bus forecasts
1.23.Fuel cell bus example specifications
1.24.Fuel cell city bus forecasts
1.25.Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Why adopt buses?
2.2.Why adopt electric buses?
2.3.Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption
2.4.Autonomous Buses: Robot Shuttles
2.5.Autonomous Buses: "Autonomous Rail Transit" (ART)
2.6.Future robot shuttle
2.7.Electric Bus Leadership: Focus on BEV
2.8.PHEV Sales: China and Europe
2.9.C40 Green and Healthy Streets Declaration tested against orders
2.10.Cities committed to the Transport part of the C40's Green and Healthy Streets Declaration
2.11.Challenges for Cities
2.12.China Cost Advantages
2.13.Importance of Upfront Price
2.14.Bus as a train?
2.15.What do latest electric bus orders tell us?
3.REGIONAL ANALYSIS
3.1.China electric transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.1.1.History of buses in China
3.1.2.China Electric Bus Sales by OEM and City
3.1.3.Yutong fights BYD for global leadership
3.1.4.BYD
3.1.5.BYD financials
3.2.India transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.2.1.Overview - Background: commercial vehicles
3.2.2.Electric bus overview
3.2.3.FAME India, Olectra-BYD, Ashok Leyland, Kinetic, TVS
3.3.Latin America transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.3.1.Latin America - large numbers
3.4.North America transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.4.1.USA: Unique mix
3.4.2.BYD, New Flyer, IndyGo, Alexander Dennis
3.4.3.Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
3.5.Europe transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.5.1.Overview
3.5.2.France
3.5.3.Germany compared to Poland
3.5.4.Netherlands
3.5.5.Nordics
3.5.6.United Kingdom
3.5.7.Spain and Luxembourg
4.SCHOOL BUSES
4.1.North America
4.1.1.Overview
4.1.2.School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
4.1.3.US school bus statistics 2018
4.1.4.Commentary
4.1.5.Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
4.1.6.Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel
4.1.7.US leading school bus manufacturers
4.2.China: big potential, not much happening yet
4.3.School buses: USA and China compared
4.4.School buses: V2G trials, launches and initiatives
5.LEARNINGS FROM BUSWORLD
5.1.Electric buses today
5.2.Example of excellence: Hess TOSA BRT
5.3.MAN, Bollore, CRRC, HIGER, Rosero contrasted
5.4.Mellor, eCrafter, APTIS
5.5.Large choice of regular sized electric buses
5.6.CRRC of China makes its own state-of-the-art electric bus components
5.7.Robot buses from China
5.8.What is happening about emissions? Cheating but improving
5.9.Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
5.10.Overview
5.11.Powertrain choices
6.TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
6.1.Voltage trends
6.2.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
6.3.Motor Efficiency Comparison
6.4.Convergence on PMSM by Major Automakers
6.5.Electric Bus Motors
6.6.Magnet Price Increase?
6.7.In-wheel motors
6.8.Batteries, axial flux and external rotor motors
6.9.Gantry charging
6.10.Cummins reinvented
6.11.How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs
7.AUTONOMOUS SHUTTLE COMPANY PROFILES
7.1.Navya
7.2.EasyMile
7.3.Autonomous shuttles' public service in Australia
7.4.2getthere
7.5.Baidu Apolong
7.6.May Mobility
7.7.Local Motors
7.8.Sensible 4
7.9.GACHA
7.10.Ohmio Automation
7.11.Yutong
8.FUTURE ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY
8.1.Toyota REE chassis: huge advances
8.2.Robot buses changing radically: all sizes, smart materials
8.2.1.NTU Singapore and Volvo: first full size, autonomous electric bus
8.2.2.Future robot shuttle
8.2.3.Protean 360 degree wheel: sideways parking for robot vehicles
8.2.4.Multifunctional smart windows coming for robot vehicles
8.2.5.Triple action window by NREL
8.2.6.Airport shuttle bus thin-film PV roof system
8.2.7.IBM Olli robot bus: 3D printed multifunctional
8.3.Self-healing supercapacitor bodywork, supercapacitor buses, future battery
8.3.1.Self healing supercapacitor body
8.3.2.Traction supercapacitors in buses
8.3.3.Battery type, performance, future
8.4.Autonomy technology and hardware trends
8.4.1.Hardware
8.4.2.Hardware replaced by software & content
8.5.Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality
8.6.Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
8.6.1.Disruptive
8.6.2.Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
8.6.3.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
8.6.4.Energy positive buses will come
9.ELECTRIC BUS FINANCING
9.1.UK eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.2.Germany eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.3.Sweden eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.4.Norway eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.5.Italy eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.6.Netherlands eBus Deployment with EIB Financing
9.7.Spain eBus Deployment with EIB Financing
9.8.European Clean Bus Deployment Initiative
9.9.China eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.10.US eBus Purchase Subsidies
10.90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
11.120 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS, RETROFITTERS, DESIGNERS
12.FORECASTS
12.1.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city buses by region (Units)
12.2.Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand BEV and PHEV city buses (GWh)
12.3.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
12.4.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV, PHEV and FCEV city bus sales (Units)
12.5.Robot Shuttles 2020-2030
12.6.Electric School Buses 2020-2030: By region (Units)
12.7.Electric School Buses 2020-2030: Market size ($USD billions)
12.8.Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city buses by region (Units)
12.9.Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand FCEV city buses (MWh)
12.10.Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
12.11.Fuel Cell Bus Example Specifications
 

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