As emissions regulations around the world tighten, and fresh electrification targets eye 2030, it is becoming easier to picture a world dominated by electric vehicles. And in parts of the world where motorcycles have become the 'family car' (India, Indonesia, Vietnam etc), the transition to electric two-wheelers seems to be just as significant as the transition to electric cars elsewhere.

 

 

 

 

The likes of Yamaha, Kawasaki, Harley Davidson, Honda, TVS and others have been in the research and development stage for a handful of electric motorcycles and / or electric scooters for the best part of a decade. The problem is they have either been so futuristic they cannot be taken seriously (check out the Kawasaki J), or simply never get green-lighted for production.

 

A combination of factors is at play here: the market is still very small, battery prices are still too high and development needs to start from scratch, which is expensive. As well as this, developing hybrids (which act as a stepping-stone for automakers) does not seem worth it with two-wheelers due to the engineering complexity and the incremental improvements made to emissions. Better to just make the leap to pure electric.

 

In the last couple of years, sentiments have begun to change: the number of investments being made by OEMs into start-ups has picked-up, and announcements of new plans for electric models tends to be a weekly / monthly occurrence rather than an annual one. The focus is not just on high power premium models: low-speed / power e-bike sales are picking up, particularly in Europe where over a third of the market comes from Germany (for this type of vehicle, think of a bicycle retrofitted with a battery on the frame). The growth has been fuelled by imports from China and Taiwan, causing prices to fall, and innovative new business models like e-cargo delivery and dockless e-bike sharing services (check out JUMP and Lime in the US).

 

 

 

But what about the tariffs? Both the European Commission and the Trump administration have announced they may slap imported e-bikes from China with a tariff as soon as January 2019 (and in Europe they could even be applied retroactively back to May 2018). It remains to be seen whether such tariffs will have a meaningful impact on sales, as importers could simply shift to placing orders for the components and doing the assembly locally. Still, with roughly 38 percent of e-bikes sold in Europe being imported from China, and over 90 percent of e-bikes sold in the US imported from China and Taiwan, there is potential for disruption.

 

The new report on 'Electric Two-Wheelers' provides forecasts up to 2029 for e-motorcycles, e-scooters and e-bikes broken down by power class (< 1kW and < 25kmph, < 4kW and > 25kmph, > 4kW) and region (India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, Europe, US and China). It presents our analysis, highlights trends and gives our opinion on what's driving the electrification of two wheelers with details based on primary research from interviews, company visits to players around the globe, and our network of contacts.

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

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