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Electric Vehicles 2020-2030

Markets, technology, manufacturers, opportunities. Land, water, air: unique detail

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Electric Vehicles 2020-2030 is the most definitive market report for the electric vehicle industry spanning land, sea, and air.
 
This report includes detailed sections on: passenger cars, buses, light commercial vehicles, medium & heavy duty trucks, micro-EVs, construction, agriculture, mining, aircraft, and marine. For each category a granular 10-year market forecast has been given by units, market value, and batter capacity.
 
The electrification of transportation sector will be one of the largest upheavals in market dynamics over the next two decades. There will be significant winners and notable losers across the supply chain. Many actors are wise to this and preparing accordingly, but others are progressing blindly into this revolution. Across the industry there are emerging players and, with the evolution of autonomous mobility, emerging markets such as robot shuttles, sky taxis, and agricultural equipment.
 
For each of the categories, a deep-dive analysis is provided. IDTechEx analysts are truly embedded in the field and couple primary information with a deep technical understanding and granular forecasting. Technology constraints, key players, addressable markets, strategic pitfalls, market drivers, and timelines to commercial success are addressed for each section.
 
The science and engineering improvements cannot be overlooked for a true understanding of what is to come. Developments from the materials to complete component level are being observed for lithium-ion battery (cell, module, and pack level), traction motors, power electronics, thermal management, charging infrastructure and more. The market analysis is also systematically broken down by powertrain type to give the reader a full appraisal of how each sectors segmentation. IDTechEx leverages its extensive technical background in these topics to provide clear independent outlooks for each scenario.
 
Within each sector there are key geographical variations. China has taken a commanding position in many and as well as addressing the local market demand the manufacturers are gaining traction internationally. However, each region has different market trends and drivers mostly led by their own national incentives.
 
Despite other markets undergoing a transformation, the electric passenger-car market will have the largest impact. A 20-year outlook models the impact of mobility-as-a-service to cause the total car market to drop. A regional breakdown is given for plug-in variants as this "peak-car" scenario is realised. Nevertheless, the passenger cars will be the biggest demand for battery capacity in the mid-term and continue to grab the most attention. A holistic independent appraisal of this market is included for the reader.
 
This market report acts as the definitive guide for all the future winners and losers of this electric revolution. Strategic decisions over the coming years will be significant as to the future success of companies and nations alike. Expensive, if not irredeemable, mistakes will be made from those in denial about this transition.
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1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Global outlook for electric vehicles
1.2.Passenger cars - unit forecast
1.3.Passenger cars - market value and battery capacity
1.4.Buses - unit forecast
1.5.Buses - market value and battery capacity
1.6.Light, medium, and heavy duty trucks - unit forecast
1.7.Light, medium, and heavy duty trucks - market value and battery capacity
1.8.Micro-EVs - unit forecast
1.9.Micro-EVs - market value and battery capacity
1.10.Construction, Agriculture, and Mining - unit forecast
1.11.Construction, Agriculture, and Mining - market value and battery capacity
1.12.Electric aircraft - unit forecast
1.13.Electric aircraft - market value and battery capacity
1.14.Marine - unit forecast
1.15.Marine - market value and battery capacity
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Useful EV definitions
2.2.EV patent analysis: battery or fuel cell?
2.3.Pure electric vehicle adoption: small vehicles cost effective first
2.4.EV powertrains and technology
2.5.How ten key enabling technologies will improve to serve primary needs
2.6.Timeline for lithium-ion battery performance
3.CARS
3.1.2017 peak car?
3.2.Why did car sales decline in China?
3.3.Differences in short-term and long-term 'peak car'
3.4.The global race for electric cars amid peak car
3.5.Data table - plug-in electric car forecast by country
3.6.The big three plug-in car markets
3.7.China's new energy vehicles 2015-2019
3.8.China incentives
3.9.China's fragmented market
3.10.US sales grow with Tesla
3.11.Europe: moving from carrot to stick
3.12.Concentration of electric car sales
3.13.Comparison of popular electric car models
3.14.EV emissions less in most parts of world
3.15.Diminishing opportunities for fuel cells
3.16.Historic growth of fuel cell cars
4.BUSES
4.1.Summary
4.2.Why adopt electric buses?
4.3.Buses population worldwide by types 2025
4.4.New types of electric bus: autonomous, not competing with conventional buses
4.5.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
4.6.Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
4.7.Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now
4.8.China buses go global: cost advantages
4.9.How China cost advantage facilitates market share
4.10.Electric bus key market events 2020-2040
4.11.Pure electric bus delivery completion dates examples 2020-2040
4.12.Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price by type 2020-2040
5.LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE
5.1.An imminent boom in eLCV sales
5.2.Light commercial vehicle classification
5.3.Continued growth in road freight demand
5.4.Electric small vans TCO advantage over diesel
5.5.Electric and diesel LCV cost parity
5.6.eLCV regional summary
5.7.Key global forecast takeaways
5.8.Key regional forecast takeaways
6.TRUCKS
6.1.Why electric trucks?
6.2.Continued growth in road freight demand
6.3.Global CO2 emission: medium & heavy duty trucks
6.4.Range of zero emission medium and heavy trucks
6.5.Heavy-duty: BEV or fuel cell?
6.6.Main truck brands in Europe
6.7.Main truck brands in the US
6.8.Main truck brands in China
6.9.Key global forecast takeaways
6.10.Key regional forecast takeaways
7.CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING
7.1.Summary
7.2.Market drivers
7.3.Construction site of the future: electric vehicles/ robots charged by movable zero gensets
7.4.Farm of the future: robots and drones charge from on-board solar and mobile "zero gensets"
7.5.Mine of the future: electric land and air vehicles charging from zero emission mine microgrids
7.6.Pure electric mining vehicle
7.7.Why we need pure electric and hybrid mining vehicles
7.8.Progress towards the end game: all electric CAM vehicles
7.9.CAM electric vehicle value market share % in 2020 and EV CAM % 2030
7.10.Major suppliers' coverage across CAM electric vehicles
7.11.Revenues of top agricultural equipment companies
7.12.CAM EV market outlook: examples hybrid vs pure electric
8.MICRO-EVS
8.1.What is micro-mobility?
8.2.Micro-mobility: dominant in Asia
8.3.Electric two-wheelers - introduction
8.4.The two-wheeler narrative - regional distribution
8.5.Europe is a growing market for e-bikes
8.6.Why e-bikes are popular
8.7.'e-bike' can mean different things
8.8.Regulations vary across the world
8.9.Production of electric two wheelers in China
8.10.Last-mile travel important in India
8.11.India market recovering, still reliant on subsidies
8.12.What is an e-motorcycle?
8.13.Historic motorcycle sales: EU and US
8.14.Major players going electric in India?
8.15.Key emerging motorcycle players
9.AIRCRAFT
9.1.Summary
9.2.Why go electric for crewed electric aircraft?
9.3.Major challenges associated with crewed electric aircraft
9.4.More electric aircraft
9.5.Categorisation of manned electric aircraft
9.6.Model analysis - anticipated range
9.7.Current short and medium-range addressable market
9.8.Current long-range addressable market
9.9.List of some key players and models by categorisation
9.10.Regulatory barriers and legislative drivers
9.11.Drones - widening uses and types
9.12.Large expenditure on high altitude drones
10.MARINE
10.1.Electric boats and ships: a long history?
10.2.Marine market segments
10.3.Torqeedo inboards and outboards
10.4.Key growth market: C&I vessels
10.5.Focus of emissions regulation
10.6.Emission Control Areas (ECA)
10.7.Unprecedented global cap on sulphur
10.8.World's first pure electric container ship
10.9.Huge rise in CO2 emissions from shipping forecast
10.10.Analysis of regulatory developments
10.11.Battery deployment in boats and ships
10.12.Crossover with the auto industry
11.TECHNOLOGIES
11.1.Batteries
11.2.Supercapacitors
11.3.Motors
11.4.Power electronics
11.5.Energy harvesting
11.6.Thermal management and fire protection - battery packs
12.AUTONOMY TECHNOLOGY
12.1.Overview
12.2.Lidars
12.3.Radars
12.4.AI software and computing platform
12.5.High-definition (HD) map
 

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The EV market will exceed $1,000bn by 2030, 100 sectors appraised

Report Statistics

Slides 327
Forecasts to 2030
 

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