Electric Vehicles in Construction 2024-2044: Technologies, Players, Forecasts

IDTechEx's report "Electric Vehicles in Construction: Technologies, Players, Forecasts" provides a deep and granular analysis of the fast-growing electric construction machine industry. Over 200 construction machines from global OEMs have been analyzed to reveal trends in machine performance, battery sizing, charging, pricing, and more. These are explored in detail in this report.

 

The electric construction machine industry is still in its very early stages, but OEMs are already moving quickly to expand their offerings of electric products while customers have shown a willingness to adopt the technology. Electric machines can offer zero-emission operation at the point of use, along with health, safety, and operational benefits as well as improved total costs of ownership (TCO). The electrification of the electric construction machine industry will also be driven by continued development of battery technology and similar electrification in other heavy-duty and off-highway markets. IDTechEx's report predicts that the electric construction machine industry will grow to be worth US$126 billion in 2044, representing a 20-year CAGR of 21%.

 

One of the greatest potential benefits of electric construction machines is their ability to generate lower total costs of ownership (TCO) than diesel machines. Electric machines can save significant amounts on operating costs by using cheaper electricity instead of diesel, and through lower maintenance requirements and downtime. IDTechEx's analysis finds that for an average 10-tonne excavator, a diesel machine will require US$6,500 per year in fuel alone, while charging for an electric alternative costs just US$3,350 per year. These significant TCO benefits are expected to be the main driver of electric machine adoption in the long-term.

 

Where electric machines suffer is in their high upfront costs. The added costs of batteries and electric powertrains means that they come at significant price premiums, as high as 50-100% the price of an equivalent diesel machine. These premiums are expected to drop as electric machine technology matures, and in most cases a net TCO benefit is still possible. However, upfront cost remains a hindrance to many customers - which can slow down uptake.

 

As such, government policies and incentives are likely to be a key motivator for electric adoption in the short term. Current legislation is sparse, seen only on a local scale in Northern Europe and some US states. Construction machines are likely to be among the last vehicle categories to see emissions regulations, as they are a relatively small contributor of greenhouse gas emissions compared to road vehicles. However, a desire to improve air quality in cities has seen governments impose some regulation on construction sites, which will encourage firms to investigate zero-emission solutions. IDTechEx has also assessed the impacts of EV purchase grants and local emissions charges and found that even small figures (e.g. US$5,000 purchase grant or US$5/day emissions charge) have considerable impact on electric machine economics and improve their favorability to operators.

 

From the time of the first electric construction machine releases in 2015 until now, questions have been asked over these machines' ability to match the rigorous demands placed on them by construction environments, and whether they could match the performance of conventional diesel machines. Customers are unlikely to purchase electric variants if they are unable to provide the same functions as diesel. However, continued development from OEMs as well as in battery and drivetrain technology means these concerns are being alleviated.

 

This IDTechEx report analyzes a wide variety of machine types from all major construction OEMs - including Caterpillar, Komatsu, XCMG, Volvo, and more - to find that electric machines can already largely match the expectations of diesel machines on runtime, power delivery, digging force, and more. This applies broadly across all the machine types analyzed in this IDTechEx report and is a major step towards further uptake of electric machines.

 

As the most developed electric machine segment, mini-excavators show off this trend well. Virtually all electric mini-excavators can achieve 4 hours of operation on a single charge, with many closer to 8 hours (a full workday). Accelerated battery development, electrification of other off-highway sectors, and, R&D from OEMs will continue to enhance the performance of electric machines of all types. IDTechEx expects most machines will be able to achieve a full workday of runtime or greater.

 

 

The construction machine market is now seeing larger electric machines such as large excavators and wheel loaders come to the fore. Where compact machines use batteries of 100 kWh or less (about the size of an electric car battery, which has established manufacturing processes and supply chains), batteries for larger machines are often in the 200-500 kWh range and are just entering maturity. These are two of the biggest machine segments in terms of sales, and among the biggest emitters of any construction machine due to their size and fuel consumption. Their electrification will be critical to the overall decarbonization of the construction industry.

 

Efforts are particularly focused in China, which has a wealth of experience in electrifying heavy-duty machines. Over two-thirds of the electric wheel loaders on the market are produced by Chinese OEMs, while Chinese electric excavators have batteries as large as 700 kWh. Chinese OEMs primarily use LFP batteries, which offer lower costs while the machines themselves can tolerate their additional weight. IDTechEx's report also delves into the various battery chemistry and design choices seen in construction machinery, detailing the compatibility between each technology and machine type.

 

This report brings together all these trends and more, highlighting the transformation that lies in the construction industry's near future. 20-year granular forecasts broken down by region and machine type provide critical insight into the key technologies driving this change within the industry.

 

This report provides critical market intelligence into the electric construction machine industry, including:

 

Context and technology driving electrification of construction machines

 

Detailed analysis of major machine categories

 

Market analysis

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