Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea, and Air 2025-2045

'Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2025-2045' is IDTechEx's comprehensive electric vehicle (EV) master report covering eleven EV markets with over 148 forecast lines. The report covers all vehicle volume and drivetrain breakdowns, including battery-electric, fuel cell, and hybrid vehicle unit sales, battery demand (GWh), and market revenue (US$ billion). The report contextualizes these sectors' current and future growth potential, detailing the regulatory and economic drivers for emerging electrification. Detailed analysis of the technology trends underpinning the transition is included, covering key areas such as silicon-anode batteries, axial-flux motors, megawatt DC fast charging, and more.

 

 

 

Electric cars represent the largest EV market over the forecast period in terms of battery demand and market value. In H1 2024, sales of electric cars stagnated somewhat globally, but there was drastic regional variation to this trend. While the NEV market in China set new records, sales in Europe grew by around 1%. However, 2025 will bring major changes to regulations in key regions that will necessitate an increase in BEV sales - as covered in this report. Low-cost, mass-market models are now being introduced to the market (often enabled by LFP batteries), and this shift away from premium high-end models will allow BEV sales to reach previously untapped markets. Plug-in hybrid vehicles have seen stronger than predicted growth, particularly in China, and a lack of phase-out for PHEV subsidies (outside of Europe) will be reflected in sustained demand for PHEVs. However, IDTechEx expects steadily decreasing battery costs and a consolidated growth in charging infrastructure will erode PHEVs perceived advantages over BEVs.

 

Commercial vehicles are deployed in smaller volumes than passenger cars but due to their typically higher unit costs and larger battery capacities, they play a significant role in the global EV market. Commercial vehicles are much more significantly affected by total cost of ownership (TCO) considerations than private cars, and this report shows how electrification must enable operational cost savings to drive adoption. Generally, electrification rates in commercial vehicles are lower than in cars, but IDTechEx research indicates that these sectors may be in the early stages of significant growth.

 

Generous subsidies from the Chinese government supported the rapid deployment of electric buses in major Chinese cities in the early 2010s. IDTechEx predicts that due to the saturation of China's electric bus market, global sales will not surpass their 2016 peak again until 2040, with future growth fuelled by replacements in China and greater adoption in emerging markets for electric buses such as Europe, India, and the US. The report covers how the European market has been underpinned by Chinese OEMs, but local supply is now starting to ramp up. Local and regional emissions restrictions are driving the electrification of city buses, while coaches remain both technically and economically harder to electrify due to longer routes and less subsidy support.

 

Much of the eLCV market's growth to date has been driven by government regulation and the increasing desire to roll out zero-emission last-mile logistics solutions for road freight and e-commerce. The report details how 5% of all LCV sales in 2023 were EVs - greater than any other class of commercial vehicles except buses. However, the spread of eLCVs globally has been far from equal. Europe and China, driven by tighter emissions restrictions and more lucrative purchase grants for eLCVs, have both seen rapid market expansion and are approaching 10% EV penetration. Meanwhile, the US lags far behind on electrification legislation and benefits from lower fossil fuel prices to the detriment of its eLCV market.

 

Despite this, IDTechEx expects the regulatory landscape around eLCV emissions will become even more restrictive over the next two decades, as governments stretch to meet their Paris Agreement goals and other sustainability initiatives. IDTechEx predicts that such developments will provide a major boost to the industry as a whole and incentivize the uptake of eLCV fleets.

 

Tesla, Daimler, VW, and Volvo are all investing heavily in battery electric trucks. A smaller minority, Toyota & Hyundai, have chosen to focus their efforts on fuel cell trucks as the powertrain of the future. Despite issues with the efficiency and cost of hydrogen as a fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation as a technology for long-haul trucking applications, dependent on the production of low-cost green hydrogen. This report shows how electrification of trucking remains challenging due to the demanding daily mileage requirements, particularly for heavy-duty trucks. IDTechEx expects the adoption of megawatt (MW) charging standards to be key to unlocking new applications of eTrucks. With cheaper electricity prices ($/kWh) and decreasing battery pack prices, many regions are approaching TCO break-even between diesel and battery-electric for certain truck applications. However, governmental support and availability of charging infrastructure vary significantly, which will be reflected in a varied uptake of zero-emissions trucking solutions.

 

In China and India, as well as several other Asian regions, two- and three-wheelers are the dominant form of personal mobility. In terms of electrification, these have typically been dominated by lead-acid battery variants. With the small battery size and low motor power required for these vehicles, they can present a relatively low-cost form of electrification. The report covers how microcars are emerging as a popular form of transport in China, thanks to the lower range requirement needed and the ability to traverse crowded cities more easily than a full-sized car. The microEV segment currently dominates unit volumes and will remain a large market in the long term, however, its battery demand will be overshadowed in the long run by the rapidly growing electric car market with much larger battery capacities per vehicle.

 

Today, electric & hybrid propulsion systems in marine have mostly emerged in recreational boating, ferries, and short-sea or inland vessels, where they have enjoyed steady uptake due to small vessel sizes or well-defined operational profiles that allow for opportunity charging. In larger deep-sea vessels, uptake is less rapid but gaining momentum as unprecedented global emissions regulations from the IMO and EU, which initially targeted NOx, SOx & PM, are now focussing on carbon & GHG emissions. The maritime sector is therefore under increasing pressure to decarbonize and meet broader climate goals, and while there is no silver bullet, solutions are potentially emerging into 'multiple silver bullets', each of which can target a specific subsector. For example, batteries for pure electric ferries and tugboats, and green fuels (often paired with batteries) in hybrid sea-going vessels. This report covers IDTechEx's research on battery electric marine vessels, assessing the key technical and economic requirements for marine vessel battery solutions.

 

Rail networks today already largely consist of electric trains 'tethered' to electric overhead and live rail systems. However, this is not feasible everywhere due to high infrastructure cost/mile, remote geographic locations, and the practicality of building through tunnels and bridges. For these stretches of track, rail OEMs and operators currently rely on diesel fuel. Despite a relatively low regulatory push to phase out the use of diesel units, multiple rail OEMs and operators are imposing self-set targets to

transition towards zero-emission rail technologies. This report sets out how battery electric and fuel cell electric trains are forecast to be deployed initially in multiple units (MUs), but will eventually serve the locomotive and shunter sectors.

 

Construction & Mining vehicles are commercial tools with a heavy focus on total cost of ownership (TCO). Although electrification is at its early stages, and electric machines often come with a premium anywhere from 50-100%, the report outlines how the significant fuel requirements of these machines mean TCO savings are already possible, and in most cases, the TCO outlook will improve significantly with decreasing Li-ion battery prices. Local regulation and policy may be a short-term driver for some regions (particularly Northern Europe), but in most cases, the reduced reliance on high (and volatile) diesel prices will be the key driver to electrification. Mining haul trucks will be some of the largest land vehicles to electrify, with batteries on the order of MWhs.

 

Electric aviation is one of the least developed sectors covered in this report. Electric conventional take-off and landing (eCTOL) aircraft, face significant technical hurdles. Despite the success of batteries in the automotive industry, and the admirable technological improvements they have shown, it will be almost impossible for battery-electric aircraft to achieve the ranges of existing jet fuel airplanes. The batteries will simply be too heavy, especially for commercial airliners, which need to burn tens of tonnes of fuel before landing to hit their maximum landing weights. This weight limit leaves scarcely a few tonnes of wiggle room for batteries to occupy. A narrow-body airplane like the Boeing 737-10 requires around 100MWh to get its full range. A battery this size would weigh hundreds of tonnes. Even future battery technologies like silicon-anode, metal-anode, or aluminum air will likely be too heavy. As such, full range with battery power alone is a near impossibility. Despite this, the report details how strategic deployment of battery electric planes to high-traffic, low-distance routes is a plausible avenue for electrification.

 

Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft are an emerging technology that seeks to offer air taxi and passenger drone services. Although 'flying taxis' are not a fixture of modern life, this report shows how technological and regulatory developments are beginning to make this a reality. Hundreds of concept eVTOL aircraft have been introduced in recent years, however very few of them have actually flown, and even fewer have any outlook for certification, commercial launch, or operations at scale. The years leading up to 2024 saw some OEMs finishing the assembly of type-conforming eVTOLs, which is an important step to achieving the type certification required to begin commercial passenger operations. A few OEMs have also made full-scale demonstrators. These demonstrators are usually larger and more advanced than scale models or prototypes, representing a significant step towards the eventual commercialization of eVTOL aircraft.

 

The EV market has seen large shifts in battery chemistry, with LFP nearly exiting the market, before becoming a major choice of cathode, especially within China. As they start to reach their performance limits and as environmental and supply risks are highlighted, improvements and alternatives to Li-ion batteries will become increasingly important. This report summarizes trends and developments in advanced battery technologies, including Li-ion cell designs, silicon anodes, solid-state, and cell-to-pack/cell-to-chassis.

 

Electric motor technology has rapidly improved with the adoption of EVs and now sustainability and material sourcing are becoming an increasing focus. The report covers the various strategies several OEMs and tier 1s have adopted (including permanent magnet-free designs) to reduce costs and reliance on rare earths.

 

Developments in automotive power electronics including inverters, onboard chargers, and DC-DC converters, can improve powertrain efficiency, allowing for either battery pack capacity reduction or improved range. The report covers key technology trends, such as the transition to silicon carbide MOSFETs and high-voltage vehicle platforms at or above 800V. Tesla was the first to market in 2017, but many have now also deployed SiC, or plan to in the future. The transition is presenting fresh challenges for power module package materials.

 

Adequate charging infrastructure is key to EV adoption across the vehicle segments and deployment will be driven by tens of millions of BEVs & PHEVs being deployed each year. Charging beyond traditional automotive requires alternative solutions, and this report gives an overview of some of these such as megawatt charging for heavy-duty applications and off-grid solutions for remote or grid-constrained locations.

 

This report provides an extensive overview of electric vehicle markets across land, sea, and air.

Each chapter includes:

 

The vehicle categories covered are:

 

Key technologies are also covered, looking at the major technology trends in:

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