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Future Mobile Phone / Cell Phone Technology and Functions 2014-2024
Wearable, tightly rollable, new functions, unfulfilled needs, IPS, NFC, IOT, sensor fusion, diagnostics
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This report concerns the future technologies and functions of mobile phones (cell phones) and, to a lesser extent, the allied products phablets and tablets. The primary emphasis is on what will become possible in the next decade. The potential for mobile phones seems almost limitless so, obviously, no one report can cover everything. Indeed, sensors and other components in a phone may be introduced for one purpose and then used for others in unforeseen ways. Barometers and gyroscopes being used for inertial navigation are examples of this. In other words no one can predict all the things a mobile phone will perform or even how its existing and future parts will combine in "sensor fusion", "structural components" and so on, to achieve new this.
Nonetheless, this report clarifies many key trends, unfulfilled needs and future routes to commercialisation. This vision is based on a plethora of interviews, event attendance, data searches and careful analysis by the PhD level researchers at IDTechEx. It recognises that improving the hardware and firmware are just as important as adding new infrastructure such as ubiquitous contactless charging and Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS).
What is the importance of forthcoming functions and enabling technologies such as Indoor Positioning Systems (IPS), the Internet of Things (IoT) and printed electronics? For the next decade, what is the market for planned tightly-rollable displays and key parts of them such as transparent conductive films, of which use in mobile phones forms just a part? How can the human interface be radically improved and the intolerably brief availability of today's smart phones before recharging? What new components will be useful in mobile phones and how will they merge? It is all here with the main emphasis on what is coming beyond improved integrated circuits.
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| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
| 1.1. | Scope |
| 1.1. | Some statistics relevant to the potential for mobile phone use |
| 1.1. | Examples of identified future needs and need for improved hardware/firmware and/or system/infrastructure changes are needed to achieve them |
| 1.1.1. | Breakneck speed |
| 1.1.2. | Needs driven by new behaviour and demographics |
| 1.2. | Future needs |
| 1.2. | Tightly rollable display promised by Samsung |
| 1.2. | Some emerging mobile phone candidate technologies and the demands they may help to satisfy in the future |
| 1.3. | Structure of the value offering of IPS vs RTLS |
| 1.3. | Technology required |
| 1.4. | Hardware is key for future mobile phones |
| 1.4. | IPS principle of operation |
| 1.4.1. | Unique hardware gains market share |
| 1.4.2. | Sensor fusion for positioning |
| 1.4.3. | Inertial navigation |
| 1.4.4. | Tipping the balance |
| 1.4.5. | The race for flexible phones |
| 1.5. | Healthcare diagnostics and more |
| 1.5. | GPS location (left) compared with the more detailed IPS (right) |
| 1.6. | Digital cash options |
| 1.6. | Sensor fusion |
| 1.7. | Internet of Things |
| 1.7. | Power requirements of small electronic products including Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and GSM mobile phones and the types of battery employed |
| 1.8. | Indoor Positioning Systems IPS |
| 1.8.2. | Location then full positioning even in 3D |
| 1.9. | Near Field Communication NFC |
| 1.10. | Key enabling technologies - hardware |
| 1.11. | Electrical power, multiple energy harvesting |
| 1.12. | Impediments to progress |
| 1.13. | The dark side |
| 1.13.1. | Increased ubiquity, increased danger |
| 1.13.2. | Take privacy more seriously |
| 1.13.3. | Stop harming children |
| 1.13.4. | Stop harming adults |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | Dreams and realities |
| 2.1. | Expert forecasts in the last few months of future changes in mobile phones |
| 2.2. | Mobile phone improvements - responses from general survey |
| 2.3. | Expert opinions |
| 3. | IMPROVED HUMAN INTERFACE AND HEALTHCARE |
| 3.1. | Human senses that can interact with a device or be a feature |
| 3.1. | Samsung promise of a mobile phone derivative with tightly rollable display |
| 3.1. | Advantages of wearable electronics |
| 3.1.1. | What is wanted? |
| 3.2. | Flexible phones: ruggedness and more |
| 3.2. | Polymer Vision concept of a PDA with rollable display |
| 3.2. | The main wearable technology market sectors 2014-2024 |
| 3.3. | Some of the investment in wearable technology 2013-4 |
| 3.3. | Two basic types of wearable electronics - the devices and the more futuristic woven smart textiles and smart apparel |
| 3.3. | Roll out screen, photovoltaics, keyboard |
| 3.4. | Wearable electronics |
| 3.4. | Where will it be on your body? |
| 3.4. | Global number of wearable electronics devices 2014-2024 |
| 3.4.1. | Derivative technology |
| 3.4.2. | Advantages of wearable electronics |
| 3.4.3. | Two basic types of wearable electronics |
| 3.4.4. | Considerable evidence of rapid adoption to come |
| 3.4.5. | Rapid increase in investment |
| 3.4.6. | Projections |
| 3.5. | Healthcare |
| 3.5.1. | Food poisoning |
| 3.5.2. | Diagnostics and more |
| 3.6. | Sound |
| 3.6.1. | Sound fidelity and localisation |
| 3.6.2. | Throat tattoo and lie detector |
| 4. | TIGHTLY ROLLABLE DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY |
| 4.1. | Summary of technologies |
| 4.1. | Examples of flexible displays |
| 4.1. | Candidates for ITO replacement and flexible screens |
| 4.2. | Benchmarking different TCF and TCG technologies on the basis of sheet resistance, optical transmission, ease of customisation, haze, ease of patterning, thinness, stability, flexibility, reflection and low cost. The technology com |
| 4.2. | TCF technology market share in the smart phone sector |
| 4.2. | Flexible transparent conducting film |
| 4.3. | Technology Assessment |
| 4.3. | Mobile phones |
| 4.3. | Market value $ billions of only flexible/conformal electronics 2012-2022 |
| 4.4. | Market value $ billions of only flexible/conformal electronics 2012-2022 |
| 4.4. | Market Assessment |
| 4.5. | Players |
| 4.6. | Market for flexible and conformal electronics |
| 5. | PHONE SENSOR FUSION & INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT) |
| 5.1. | Sensor fusion |
| 5.1. | ISMB gesture recognition by sensor fusion |
| 5.2. | Internet of Things IoT |
| 5.3. | Intelligent contextual sensing |
| 5.4. | Sensor fusion leveraging NFC |
| 6. | INDOOR POSITIONING SYSTEMS (IPS) |
| 6.1. | In-Location Alliance |
| 6.1. | Structure of the value offering of IPS vs RTLS |
| 6.2. | IPS principle of operation |
| 6.2. | RTLS |
| 6.2. | Official list of In-Location members |
| 6.3. | RTLS and IPS compared in terms of other names used, usual purpose today, standards, frequencies, typical users involved and typical suppliers through the value chain. |
| 6.3. | Ranges |
| 6.3. | GPS location shown left compared with the more detailed IPS right |
| 6.4. | RTLS schematic |
| 6.4. | Principles of locating using RTLS and IPS |
| 6.4. | Overview of indoor positioning technologies |
| 6.5. | Comparison of the three generations of active RFID |
| 6.5. | Choice of infrastructure |
| 6.5. | Samsung RTLS objectives |
| 6.6. | RTLS, IPS and OPS compared |
| 6.6. | No infrastructure as an option |
| 6.6. | Defining features of the three generations of active RFID |
| 6.6.1. | Inertial/ dead reckoning measurements |
| 6.6.2. | Single beam RSSI |
| 6.7. | Choices of infrastructure |
| 6.7. | Enhanced infrastructure |
| 6.7. | Some options for location systems from very short range to long range, showing RTLS and IPS |
| 6.8. | Overview of indoor technologies in dependence on accuracy and coverage |
| 6.8. | Dedicated infrastructure |
| 6.8. | Comparison of options for basic measuring principle to find position |
| 6.9. | Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2012-2023 |
| 6.9. | Trend for IPS infrastructure |
| 6.9. | User requirements left with important technical parameters of less interest to the user right |
| 6.10. | Possible area of deployment vs system cost |
| 6.10. | Choices of signal interpretation to find position |
| 6.10. | Primary market objective for IPS vs RTLS |
| 6.11. | Applications, compromises and value chain |
| 6.11. | Tolerance of faults and unauthorised repositioning vs system cost |
| 6.12. | Tag cost today vs system cost |
| 6.12. | IPS/RTLS Interviews |
| 6.12.1. | CSR (formerly Cambridge Silicon Radio) USA |
| 6.12.2. | Decawave Ireland |
| 6.12.3. | Ekahau Finland |
| 6.12.4. | In-Location Alliance UK |
| 6.12.5. | Redpine Signals USA |
| 6.12.6. | Ubisense UK |
| 6.13. | Number of tags per interrogator vs system cost |
| 6.14. | Infrastructure cost vs system cost |
| 6.15. | WSN system diagram where the gateway can be a cell phone in future |
| 6.16. | The most popular forms of RTLS based on RFID |
| 6.17. | RFID and other appropriate systems through the traditional supply chain |
| 6.18. | RFID value chain |
| 6.19. | Examples of technologies derived from and/or interfacing with active RFID |
| 6.20. | Range vs approximate up-front cost of RTLS tags based on different frequencies and protocols compared with passive (no battery) RFID |
| 6.21. | Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2012-2023 |
| 6.22. | Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by application |
| 6.23. | Relative emphasis on IPS, RTLS or both in the value chain by number of organisations identified in the survey. |
| 6.24. | Basic RF measuring principle - relative popularity vs ultrasound |
| 7. | NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION |
| 7.1. | Forms of NFC and non-NFC digital cash with examples |
| 7.1. | Timelines for NFC adoption |
| 7.1. | Important milestones in the adoption and use of NFC 2014-2024 |
| 7.2. | IDTechEx conclusions about the status and potential of NFC technology |
| 7.2. | Forecasts 2014-2024 |
| 7.2. | Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted |
| 7.3. | Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration |
| 7.3. | The purpose of NFC |
| 7.3. | Comments by supporters and skeptics of NFC in 2013 |
| 7.4. | Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted |
| 7.4. | NFC Forum |
| 7.4. | Retrevo Pulse study of NFC payment attitudes |
| 7.5. | Data rate vs range for short range radio protocols |
| 7.5. | Lessons from NFC World Congress Nice France September 2013 |
| 7.5. | Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration |
| 7.6. | Phases of attempted rollout of NFC uses |
| 7.6. | NFC Interviews |
| 7.6. | Scope of the NFC Forum |
| 7.6.1. | Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc, USA |
| 7.6.2. | MeaWallet, Norway |
| 7.6.3. | Nissin Czech Republic |
| 7.6.4. | RBR, UK |
| 7.6.5. | Smart-TEC, Germany |
| 7.6.6. | Tag & Play, France |
| 7.6.7. | Ticketmobile, Norway |
| 7.6.8. | Interview in Japan |
| 7.7. | Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain |
| 7.8. | NFC in the trough of disillusionment |
| 7.9. | Samsung TecTiles |
| 7.10. | Attempt to link the Internet of Things with NFC |
| 7.11. | Many options for a typical interrogation |
| 7.12. | Store Electronic Systems activity in stores up to and including NFC enabled shelf edge devices |
| 7.13. | Store Electronic Systems' NFC perception and achievements |
| 7.14. | Smart meter potential revealed |
| 7.15. | ETRI Programmable NFC sensor card |
| 7.16. | NFC labels on display |
| 7.17. | Murata and Todo Kogyo ultra-small NFC tags |
| 7.18. | Screen with NFC enabled images where the NFC tags can be repurposed and videos etc can be triggered on the screen - useful for merchandising |
| 7.19. | V Wand - NFC to item then Bluetooth to tablet |
| 7.20. | Number of transaction cards on issue globally 2012 and 2018 |
| 7.21. | LEGIC experience of NFC phones for secure access and payment |
| 8. | PRINTED AND PRINTABLE ELECTRONICS AND ELECTRICS |
| 8.1. | Add Vision process |
| 8.1. | Flexible OLED displays |
| 8.2. | Flexible memory |
| 8.2. | Thinfilm printed memory |
| 8.3. | PragmatIC capability |
| 8.3. | Flexible transistors |
| 8.4. | Flexible batteries |
| 8.4. | IDTechEx view of potential for graphene in electronics and electrics. |
| 8.5. | Plastic Logic view of wearables |
| 8.5. | Graphene |
| 8.6. | Emerging metallisation inks |
| 8.6. | Plastic foil of organic photodetectors |
| 8.7. | Printed temperature sensor |
| 8.7. | Wearable electronics |
| 8.8. | Printed electronics and allied interviews |
| 8.8. | OPD for object detection by smart systems: logistics, retail, Point-Of-Sales display |
| 8.8.1. | Bayer MaterialScience - Artificial Muscle Inc Germany |
| 8.8.2. | CAP-XX Australia |
| 8.8.3. | ISORG France |
| 8.8.4. | KWJ Engineering Inc USA |
| 8.8.5. | Paper Battery Co USA |
| 8.8.6. | Peratech Ltd UK |
| 8.8.7. | Synkera Technologies Inc USA |
| 8.8.8. | Tactonic |
| 8.9. | IDTechEx Printed Electronics Portal |
| 9. | FUTURE ELECTRICAL POWER AND OTHER EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES |
| 9.1. | IDTechEx view of OPV |
| 9.1. | 142 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel |
| 9.1. | New battery and supercapacitor technologies |
| 9.2. | Photovoltaics technologies and Africa |
| 9.2. | Number, unit value ex-factory and total market value rounded of WPT hardware sold for consumer electronics worldwide 2012-2022 |
| 9.3. | Contactless inductive charging |
| 9.4. | 3D Printing |
| 9.5. | Flexible haptic keyboards |
| 9.6. | Scanner, printer, separate flexible display and energy harvesting, battery boosters |
| 9.7. | Progress with harvesting tolerant electronics |
| APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY | |
| IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS | |
| IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
Over 2.3 billion NFC-enabled mobile phones will be sold in 2024
Report Statistics
| Pages | 234 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 27 |
| Figures | 70 |
| Forecasts to | 2024 |
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