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Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2015-2025
How all components and structure will change completely
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E-cars are oversupplied and changing in all respects but in this frenzy of birth and death the future is being created with hybrid cars rapidly gaining market share now and sale of pure electric cars likely to take off in the second half of the coming decade as certain technical and cost challenges are resolved. Toyota and Tesla have hugely benefitted from correct market positioning but now Toyota is betting strongly on fuel cell hybrids and Tesla on mainstream pure electric cars - both graveyards for many companies in the past. A vicious shakeout of car and battery manufacturers has commenced with the winners expecting riches beyond the dreams of avarice.
Figure 1: New models of hybrid car from 2010-2014, one of the leading indicators of future hybrid car sales
Source: IDTechEx
IDTechEx finds that the global sale of hybrid and pure electric cars will rise to over $185 billion in 2025 as they are transformed in most respects. For example, components are becoming integrated, the range extender as an optional extra breaks down the difference between pure electric and hybrid and car manufacturers vertically integrate and collaborate, competing with their suppliers.
Contents include homologated cars and car-like vehicles and their very different technology and global appeal. Many interviews are woven into the text as appropriate, with the outcome being forecasts 2015-2025 for number, cost and market value of the different types of car and technology roadmaps.
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| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
| 1.1. | The market for electric cars |
| 1.1. | Homologated on-road electric cars at the awkward tipping point between pure electric and hybrid vehicles of other types |
| 1.1. | The top electric vehicles manufacturers by ex factory gross sales value taken from the IDTechEx Electric Vehicle Market Portal (figures in US$ billion 2014) |
| 1.1.1. | Definitions |
| 1.1.2. | Cars as part of the big picture |
| 1.1.3. | Further details of e-car trends |
| 1.1.4. | League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies |
| 1.1.5. | Awkward tipping point |
| 1.1.6. | Forecasting challenges |
| 1.2. | Forecasts 2014-2025 |
| 1.2. | Global sales of electric, homologated, on-road cars number thousands 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.2. | Primary electric traction motor criteria by type of hybrid or pure electric vehicle showing cars needing to be "all things to all men". |
| 1.2.1. | On-road cars |
| 1.2.2. | Geographical demand |
| 1.2.3. | US market in 2014 |
| 1.2.4. | Europe and Japan |
| 1.2.5. | China |
| 1.2.6. | Successful strategies |
| 1.2.7. | Plug-in market dynamics |
| 1.2.8. | Security of forecasts |
| 1.2.9. | New models as lead indicator |
| 1.2.10. | MicroEVs/quadricycles etc |
| 1.2.11. | Golf cars will have no growth |
| 1.2.12. | Profitability |
| 1.2.13. | Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars |
| 1.3. | Disruptive change and merging of all parts |
| 1.3. | Global sales of electric cars number thousands, 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.3. | Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.4. | Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.4. | Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.4. | Range extenders including fuel cells |
| 1.5. | Batteries |
| 1.5. | Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.5. | Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.6. | IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2015-2025 |
| 1.6. | Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.6. | Electric motors |
| 1.7. | Power electronics |
| 1.7. | IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2015-2025 |
| 1.7. | MicroEV quadricycle numbers (thousand) 2014-2025 |
| 1.7.1. | Increased performance and complexity |
| 1.7.2. | Wide band gap semiconductors |
| 1.8. | Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye |
| 1.8. | MicroEV quadricycle unit price (US$ thousand) 2014-2025 |
| 1.8. | Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2010-2014, one of the leading indicators of future hybrid car sales |
| 1.8.1. | Across batteries in cars |
| 1.8.2. | Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars |
| 1.8.3. | Indian supercapacitor sports car |
| 1.8.4. | Across fuel cells in cars |
| 1.9. | Plugging in: when, where, why? |
| 1.9. | The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2010-2014 |
| 1.9. | MicroEV quadricycle market value (US$ billion) 2014-2025 |
| 1.10. | Global sales of electric golf cars in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2014-2025, rounded |
| 1.10. | Distribution of on-road pure-electric vehicles in circulation according to model in 2013 plus the Fisker hybrid |
| 1.10. | Progress of Toyota and Tesla |
| 1.10.1. | Market and technology priorities |
| 1.10.2. | Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership |
| 1.11. | Fuel cell cars: caution needed |
| 1.11. | Number of electric 4-wheelers in Europe in 2013 |
| 1.11. | Battery collaborations of selected companies |
| 1.12. | Examples of traditional limitations and market trends by type of basic design of traction motor Those used mainly on large vehicles but are also seen in cars shown in green. Those on smaller vehicles and high performance vehicles |
| 1.12. | Number of electric 2-wheelers in Europe in 2013 |
| 1.12. | Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles |
| 1.13. | Electric vehicle end game: free non-stop road travel |
| 1.13. | Post recession automotive global sales and manufacturing |
| 1.14. | Technology: everything will change disruptively |
| 1.14. | News in 2016 |
| 1.14.1. | Electra Meccanica SOLO in full production July 2016 |
| 1.14.2. | Apple |
| 1.14.3. | Feature - Interview with GLM Japan in 2016 |
| 1.14.4. | Example of new car powertrains: Peugeot Citroen May 2016 |
| 1.14.5. | Honda goes electric |
| 1.14.6. | Ford Plug-in Vehicle Behavior |
| 1.14.7. | Electric cars vs 48V mild hybrid non-EV |
| 1.15. | One autonomous bus/taxi will replace 20 private cars? |
| 1.15. | Load-bearing supercapacitors as structural components. Top left: Volvo experimental car trunk lid that is a supercapacitor. Top right: Partner Imperial College London's supercapacitor textile being developed for load bearing compo |
| 1.16. | Example of integrated components coming in |
| 1.17. | Examples of 2015 hybrid cars |
| 1.18. | GaN Systems capability late 2014 |
| 1.19. | Mazda pure electric car in production with supercapacitor across battery (vertical device by nearside front wheel) |
| 1.20. | Toyota supercapacitor-only concept car and precedents |
| 1.21. | Nova Electric Vehicles |
| 1.22. | Toyota Mirai |
| 1.23. | Electra Meccanica SOLO |
| 1.24. | Example of new car powertrains: Peugeot Citroen May 2016 |
| 1.25. | Average trip length miles |
| 1.26. | PHEV average miles per day |
| 1.27. | Electric cars vs 48V mild hybrid non-EV |
| 1.28. | Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016 |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out |
| 2.1. | Geographical distribution of companies making or intending to make electric cars |
| 2.1. | European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros |
| 2.2. | Over 80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of electric cars and car-like MicroEVs |
| 2.2. | Toyota's i-Road - A fun driving experience |
| 2.2. | Danger signs |
| 2.3. | Government support |
| 2.3. | Grams of CO2 per mile of different power train technologies in 2035 |
| 2.3. | Fuel Cell partnerships |
| 2.4. | Planned Deployment of Electric 3 wheelers in India Bajaj/USAID |
| 2.4. | Cost and greenness of different sources of hydrogen |
| 2.4. | Rapid increase in number of manufacturers |
| 2.5. | Can the grid cope? |
| 2.5. | Energy losses cascade in hydrogen generation from renewable sources |
| 2.6. | Post Recession Automotive Global Sales and Manufacturing |
| 2.6. | Changing mobility needs - urban mobility |
| 2.7. | Fuel cell mobility |
| 2.7. | Car Sharing evolution 2006-2012 |
| 2.8. | Energy dissipation through air resistance |
| 2.8. | How green are fuel cell cars really? |
| 2.9. | Regional trends |
| 2.9. | Selected three wheel vehicles |
| 2.10. | Toyota's i-Road - A different driving experience. |
| 2.10. | Fuel cells |
| 2.11. | Gigafactory |
| 2.11. | Map of motorcycle helmet laws |
| 2.12. | Lit motors |
| 2.12. | New forms of collaborative consumption - car sharing or car clubs |
| 2.13. | Narrow Vehicles |
| 2.13. | Electric Three Wheel Taxi |
| 2.14. | Bubble-bike |
| 2.14. | Conventional car with 48 V electric torque assist |
| 2.15. | The Indian Three Wheel market - the largest globally. |
| 2.16. | Bajaj diesel three wheel |
| 3. | PURE ELECTRIC CARS |
| 3.1. | Consumer attitudes to electric vehicles |
| 3.1. | Public perceptions on EVs |
| 3.1. | Tesla sales since its launch by country |
| 3.2. | Current performance of EVs |
| 3.2. | Change in purchase intention of EVs |
| 3.2. | The car powertrain as a portfolio of technologies |
| 3.3. | Evolution of the value chain structure - the opportunity window |
| 3.3. | Production structure of the ICE of Today (Dodel, 2004) |
| 3.3. | Performance of Selected Electric Vehicles |
| 3.4. | 15 examples of golf EV manufacturers |
| 3.4. | Make or buy - OEM and supplier focus for ICE vehicles |
| 3.4. | Manufacturing |
| 3.5. | The arguments against |
| 3.5. | An analysis of the value added of the two powertrains |
| 3.6. | Make or buy - OEM and supplier focus for BEV |
| 3.6. | Déjà vu |
| 3.7. | Golf EVs |
| 3.7. | Production structure of the typical BEV today |
| 3.8. | Nissan Smyrna Tennessee |
| 3.8. | Energy positive solar car |
| 3.9. | Leaf assembling line |
| 3.10. | Renault Twizy behind the scenes at the Valladolid Plant |
| 3.11. | Trouvé pure EV car in 1881 |
| 3.12. | Red Bug pure EV in 1930 |
| 3.13. | Sinclair C5 |
| 3.14. | Aptera |
| 3.15. | Gemcars |
| 3.16. | Shadong Wuzheng golf cars |
| 4. | HYBRID CARS OVERVIEW |
| 4.1. | Construction and advantages of hybrids |
| 4.1. | Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles |
| 4.1. | Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid |
| 4.2. | Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units |
| 4.2. | Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type |
| 4.2. | Evolution |
| 4.3. | Market drivers |
| 4.3. | Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept |
| 4.3. | Examples of 2015 hybrid car launches |
| 4.3.1. | Leading indicators |
| 4.4. | Interesting new technology in recent concept cars |
| 4.4. | Toyota Hybrid R Concept |
| 4.4.1. | Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept |
| 4.4.2. | Toyota Supercapacitor Yaris |
| 4.5. | Examples of 2015 hybrid car launches |
| 5. | HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY |
| 5.1. | Series vs parallel hybrid |
| 5.1. | Some hybrid variants |
| 5.1. | Price premium for hybrid buses |
| 5.2. | Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output |
| 5.2. | Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids |
| 5.2. | Modes of operation of hybrids |
| 5.2.1. | Plug in hybrids |
| 5.2.2. | Charge-depleting mode |
| 5.2.3. | Blended mode |
| 5.2.4. | Charge-sustaining mode |
| 5.2.5. | Mixed mode |
| 5.3. | Microhybrid is a misnomer |
| 5.3. | Trend to deep hybridisation |
| 5.4. | Evolution of hybrid structure |
| 5.4. | Deep hybridisation |
| 5.5. | Hybrid vehicle price premium |
| 5.5. | Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical |
| 5.6. | Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored. |
| 5.6. | Battery cost and performance are key |
| 5.7. | Tradeoff of energy storage technologies |
| 5.7. | Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs |
| 5.8. | Volkswagen roadmap for high-energy batteries in late 2014 |
| 5.8. | Advantages and disadvantages |
| 5.9. | Can supercapacitors replace batteries? |
| 5.9. | Comparison of battery technologies |
| 5.10. | Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade. |
| 5.10. | Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors |
| 5.11. | What is a range extender? |
| 5.11. | Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade |
| 5.12. | Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories |
| 5.12. | What will be required of a range extender? |
| 5.13. | Three generations of range extender |
| 5.13. | Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity |
| 5.13.1. | First generation range extender technology |
| 5.13.2. | Second generation range extender technology |
| 5.13.3. | Third generation range extender technology |
| 5.14. | Energy harvesting |
| 5.14. | Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles |
| 5.15. | Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles |
| 5.15. | Trend to high voltage |
| 5.16. | Trend to distributed components |
| 5.16. | Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles |
| 5.17. | Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels |
| 5.17. | Trend to flatness then smart skin |
| 5.18. | Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution |
| 5.19. | Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution |
| 5.20. | Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs |
| 5.21. | Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof |
| 6. | 143 LITHIUM BATTERY MANUFACTURERS COMPARED |
| 6.1. | 143 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel |
| 7. | KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS |
| 7.1. | Three key enabling technologies become six |
| 7.1. | Examples of electronics and electrics replacing mechanical parts in electric vehicles. |
| 7.1. | Examples of range extenders using a generator and ones with inherent electricity generation marked fuelgen |
| 7.2. | Performance of new and improved supercapacitors and their variants |
| 7.2. | Examples of cost reduction of electrics/ electronics by radical alternatives. |
| 7.2. | Many new forms of range extender |
| 7.3. | Supercapacitors |
| 7.3. | Cars with photovoltaic harvesting. Top pure electric, bottom the hybrid Fisker Karma car |
| 7.4. | Change of energy consumption for different powertrains as a function of vehicle weight |
| 7.4. | Energy harvesting |
| 7.5. | Power electronics |
| 7.5. | Effects of 100kg weight reduction on battery size and cost of a BEV |
| 7.6. | Benefit of 1 kg mass reduction for a BEV (with/without resizing of the battery) over operating time vs. additional lightweight costs |
| 7.6. | Printed and laminar electronics |
| 7.7. | Lightweight design |
| 7.7. | Drayson pure electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries |
| 7.8. | Millenworks light hybrid vehicle ie not plug-in |
| 7.8. | Structural components and smart skin |
| 7.9. | Innovative charging |
| 7.10. | Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors |
| 7.11. | Third generation traction batteries |
| 7.12. | Tesla's battery coup - winners and losers |
| 7.12.1. | The theory says no |
| 7.12.2. | IDTechEx analysis |
| 7.12.3. | Enormity |
| 7.12.4. | Winners and losers |
| 7.12.5. | Infrastructure needs reduce |
| 7.12.6. | IDTechEx forecasts more cautious |
| 7.12.7. | Blood bath |
| 7.12.8. | Territorial implication |
| 7.12.9. | China and Korea |
| 8. | FUEL CELL CARS FCEV |
| 8.1. | Overview |
| 8.1. | The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells |
| 8.1. | Overview of sales (unit/a) by regions |
| 8.2. | List of manufacturer and fuel cell cars |
| 8.2. | Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years. |
| 8.2. | Current status and potential |
| 8.3. | History/development of the technology |
| 8.3. | Japanese hydrogen fuel station |
| 8.4. | Hydrogen fuel station in Japan |
| 8.4. | Mass market |
| 8.5. | Fuel cell vs. other powertrains |
| 8.5. | Toyota Mirai |
| 8.6. | Wheel to wheel (WTW) efficiency, Well-to-tank (WTT) and Tank-to-wheel (TTW) losses for the considered energy pathways |
| 8.6. | Hydrogen infrastructure |
| 8.6.1. | Toyota, Nissan and Honda to jointly support hydrogen station infrastructure development |
| 8.7. | Value proposition |
| 8.8. | Standards |
| 8.9. | Necessary investment |
| 8.10. | Improvement of the legislation in North America and Europe for hydrogen vehicles |
| 8.10.1. | USA |
| 8.10.2. | EU |
| 8.11. | R&D, initiatives and demonstration projects, H2 infrastructure: |
| 8.11.1. | EU |
| 8.11.2. | UK |
| 8.11.3. | Germany |
| 8.11.4. | Nordic countries |
| 8.11.5. | Further countries in Europe |
| 8.11.6. | Japan |
| 8.11.7. | South Korea: |
| 8.11.8. | USA |
| 8.11.9. | India |
| 8.11.10. | China |
| 8.11.11. | South Africa |
| 8.11.12. | Brazil |
| 8.11.13. | Beside the BRICS |
| 8.12. | Players |
| 8.12.1. | Traditional fuel cell car manufacturers |
| 8.12.2. | The pioneers |
| 8.12.3. | But some changed for batteries... |
| 8.12.4. | Some started early and still don´t show clear direction... |
| 8.13. | Some alliances and initiatives |
| 8.14. | The OEMS and their fuel cell cars in detail |
| 8.14.1. | Daimler |
| 8.14.2. | GM |
| 8.14.3. | Honda |
| 8.14.4. | Toyota |
| 8.14.5. | VW Group |
| 8.14.6. | Audi |
| 8.14.7. | Hyundai |
| 8.14.8. | Nissan |
| 8.15. | Some newer suppliers and users examined |
| 8.15.1. | Overview |
| 8.15.2. | Intelligent Energy |
| 8.15.3. | Michelin F-CITY |
| 8.15.4. | Riversimple |
| 8.15.5. | Belenos F-500 (fuel cell range extender) |
| 8.15.6. | Ecomove (QBEAK) |
| 8.15.7. | GreenGT |
| 8.15.8. | Other approaches |
| 8.16. | Shale gas profitability doubts cast shadow on fuel cell cars launch |
| IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS | |
| IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
Global sale of hybrid and pure electric cars will rise to over $185 billion in 2025
Report Statistics
| Pages | 228 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 30 |
| Figures | 99 |
| Forecasts to | 2025 |
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