Heat Shields & Thermal Protection Systems for Spacecraft 2025-2035: Technologies and Market Outlook

Granular technology assessment of tile-based, ablative, and expandable aerodynamic decelerator thermal protection systems (TPS) and heat shields for spacecraft atmospheric re-entry, including 10-year market forecasts.

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Thermal protection systems (TPS) are designed to protect spacecraft from the enormous aerodynamic heating generated during the entry into an atmosphere. The hottest parts of the Space Shuttle during re-entry reached 1,650°C, while the Galileo probe that entered Jupiter's atmosphere reached 16,000°C. Protecting the spacecraft during this intense thermal heating is the sole purpose of a TPS - and since the earliest days of space travel, innovations and advancements in TPS have been crucial to enabling space missions. The space industry is rapidly evolving, with commercial operators beginning to take on roles in the emerging 'Space Economy' and seeking to reduce launch costs. Governmental agencies remain at the forefront of material science and development as mission goals become more ambitious, from landing greater payloads on Mars to exploring the outer planets. This report contextualizes the TPS requirements of different re-entry profiles and breaks down the core categories of TPS.
 
 
Performance envelopes for a range of thermal protection systems. Commercial interest is focused on insulation tiles through to PICA. Pressures and temperatures beyond this are only encountered in the exploration of outer planets or exceptionally large payloads - currently the mission domain of governmental agencies.
A new geometry for Starship seeks to solve the problems of the Shuttle-era TPS
For the 'lower' heating rates (1,650°C is still beyond the melting point of stainless steel) encountered on returning from a low-Earth-orbit (LEO) - high-temperature insulative silicon tiles are an often-used approach. Because the overall heat flux is lower, utilizing reusable TPS is possible and desirable as it lowers the cost to orbit and enables a higher launch cadence. The NASA Space Shuttle program was intended to provide a low-cost, rapidly reusable spacecraft that could ferry crew and cargo from the surface to a LEO. However, the Shuttle's TPS was plagued by high construction costs, lengthy maintenance requirements, and damaged tiles were the cause of the Columbia disaster.
 
The promise of rapidly reusable silicon-tile based insulation remains appealing, and SpaceX has opted for this TPS for its Starship upper-stage. However, several key design differences of Starship could potentially negate some of the cost and performance problems of the Starship. The report breaks down how tile shape, spacecraft geometry, and choice of substructure material could all contribute to greater TPS performance. The report also outlines the developments of the key subcategories of reusable TPS, from advanced carbon-carbon and other hot structures to developments in high emissivity coatings and TUFROC, offering performance data and material composition throughout.
 
Inflatable TPS - an emerging option at the forefront of development
One of the fundamental constraints of any launched spacecraft is the 'rocket-fairing', that is, the width of the rocket nose at launch. However, the physics of atmospheric entry favors the largest heat shield diameter possible. A novel and emerging technique is to use an inflatable or mechanically expandable TPS that is stowed on launch but expands before re-entry. This is seen as a viable way to enable greater payload missions, with some commercial operators also pursuing this avenue for LEO cargo return. This approach comes with a host of technical challenges, but great advancements are being made, and in 2022, NASA completed the first successful LEO re-entry with its LOFTID (Low Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator). The report unpacks the key material opportunities in these TPS, such as aerogel insulators, high-temperature ceramic fabrics, and the need for solid-gas generators. Potential applications for this development are also examined, including high-value booster engine return, high-altitude landings, and higher payload delivery.
 
Ablators - from Apollo to Orion
 
Generic ablator structure beginning with a substrate material (often carbon or silica fibers) which are impregnated with a resin (phenolic resin is common) and additives (such as silica micro balloons). An additional structure (such as a honeycomb matrix) may be added for support. Pyrolysis converts the 'virgin' material into 'char, ' transferring heat away from the structure. Source: IDTechEx.
 
An ablative TPS is the ultimate form of protection, used when a spacecraft's reentry speed means all other options would simply not stand up to the heat. Ablation can aptly be described asenergy management through material consumption, and the ablator itself disintegrates in a controlled manner during re-entry, transferring away heat and protecting the substructure beneath. Ablators have been used from lunar returns (AVCOAT honeycomb on Apollo) to entry into Jupiter (Carbon Phenolic). This report breaks down the material families of ablators, highlighting their material construction, installation, and performance envelopes. Historical context is provided, such as the atrophy of Carbon Phenolic capabilities due to the cessation of aerospace-grade Rayon production, and where 3D-woven fabrics may fit in as a replacement. Commercially developed variants, such as SpaceX's PICA-X (Phenolic impregnated carbon ablator-X) are covered, as well as assessing the potential semi-reusability of ablators well within their performance envelope.
Industry overview and market analysis
As part of its research, IDTechEx has examined several existing and upcoming space cargo/crew vehicles with a variety of TPS selections. Factors such as launch cadence, dimensions, and material selection provide a detailed assessment of the state of the industry. This extensive market analysis also forms the foundation of IDTechEx's market forecasts for TPS systems up to 2035, split by material demand (in m2) and USD.
 
IDTechEx's research includes coverage of several key players and projects in space crew and cargo transfer vehicles, a key application of TPS. Source: IDTechEx.
 
Key Aspects
A review and context of the space industry
  • The emerging presence of commercial space operators for a variety of purposes (launch operators, commercial LEO cargo transfer)
  • Implications of commercialization on material design for thermal protection systems
  • Development timeline of cargo and crewed spacecraft
 
Atmospheric Entry
  • Overview of reentry physics and atmospheric heating (split by convective and radiative heat.
  • Blunt body concept and the need for thermal protection systems.
  • Material selection and design for TPS, and performance envelopes for a variety of categories.
 
Tile-based TPS
  • Density, emissivity, conductivity and temperature limits for tile-based TPS.
  • Historical overview of tile-based systems, from the Shuttle-era to Starship.
  • Development pathway of component categories, from high-insulation tiles, coatings, ceramic blankets, and hot structures
  • Silica based tiles, Reinforced-carbon-carbon, TUFROC, Starship tiles
  • Material density and temperature limit benchmarking
 
Expandable Aerodynamic Decelerators
  • How increasing the diameter beyond the launch fairing affects ballistic coefficient and peak heating.
  • Overview of NASA's HIAD and LOFTID test programs, including construction techniques and materials used.
  • How expandable aerodynamic decelerators could unlock commercial booster reusability.
  • Mechanically deployable aerodynamic decelerators
  • Key commercial players with test-flights planned.
 
Ablative TPS
  • Overview of the need of ablators in the most challenging reentry environments.
  • Summary of ablative and pyrolysis heat transfer mechanisms
  • Summary of ablator families and development timeline
  • Honeycomb ablators (e.g. AVCOAT)
  • PICA heat shields, and its potential reusability.
  • Carbon Phenolic heat shields
  • Emerging 3D Woven thermal protection systems, such as NASA's HEEET
 
Forecasts
  • Granular 10-year market forecasts for TPS, split by category and operators (governmental vs commercial).
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data1991 - 2024
CAGRThe global market for Thermal Protection Systems for Spacecraft will reach US$90 million in 2035, a CAGR of 3.3% compared with 2024.
Forecast Period2025 - 2035
Forecast UnitsUSD, Area (m2)
Regions CoveredWorldwide
Segments CoveredThermal protection systems; ablative systems, tile-based systems
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1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Thermal Protection Systems - Introduction
1.2.The Space Industry is Changing
1.3.Commercial Orbital Launches Growing Rapidly
1.4.Reusable Entry/Transfer Vehicles - Cargo and Crewed
1.5.LEO Partially Reusable Return Vehicle Testing Timeline
1.6.Thermal Protection Systems & 'Aerobraking'
1.7.Options for Decelerating
1.8.Peak Heat, Total Heat, and Stagnation Pressure
1.9.Categories of Thermal Protection System
1.10.TPS Performance Envelope (1)
1.11.TPS Performance Envelope
1.12.Role of Industry in Material and Manufacturing of Heat Shields
1.13.Forecasting Overview
1.14.Annual Installation Area of Thermal Protection Systems
1.15.Market Value of TPS, 1991-2035
1.16.TPS Market Value Forecast (1)
1.17.TPS Market Value Forecast (2)
2.SPACE INDUSTRY
2.1.Thermal Protection Systems - Introduction
2.2.The Space Industry is Changing
2.3.Commercial Interest in Space
2.4.Commercial Orbital Launches Growing Rapidly
2.5.Orbital Launches by Country of Operator, 1957-2024
2.6.BEO Launches Remain Low
2.7.SpaceX a Dominant Player Among Launch Providers
2.8.Space Mission Domain
2.9.Microgravity manufacturing
2.10.Commercialization of Space - Implications for Material Design
2.11.Cargo and Crew Capsules - TPS Enables Reusability
2.12.Cargo and Crew Transportation
2.13.Reusable Entry/Transfer Vehicles - Cargo and Crewed
2.14.Reusable Entry/Transfer Vehicles - Cargo and Crewed
2.15.LEO Partially Reusable Return Vehicle Testing Timeline
2.16.Partial Reusability
2.17.Partial Reusability - TPS Options
2.18.Crew/Cargo Return Vehicles
3.ATMOSPHERIC RE-ENTRY
3.1.Tsiolkovsky's Rocket Equation
3.2.Thermal Protection Systems & 'Aerobraking'
3.3.Atmospheric Entry - Overview
3.4.Energy of Orbital Vehicles
3.5.Options for Decelerating
3.6.Blunt Body Concept
3.7.Convective vs Radiative Heat
3.8.Peak Heat, Total Heat, and Stagnation Pressure
3.9.Categories of TPS
3.10.Categories of Thermal Protection System
3.11.Thermal Protection Systems
3.12.Cost and Performance
3.13.TPS Peak Heating and Pressure Limits
3.14.TPS Performance Envelope (1)
3.15.TPS Performance Envelope (2)
3.16.Role of Industry in Material and Manufacturing of Heat Shields
4.TILE-BASED TPS
4.1.Reusable TPS Overview
4.2.Material Requirements for Reusable TPS
4.3.Importance of Surface Emissivity
4.4.Thermal Conductivity
4.5.Temperature and Density
4.6.Reusable TPS Material Development Pathway
4.7.Spacecraft Geometry Affects Heating
4.8.Silica Based Tiles
4.9.Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) - (1)
4.10.Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) - (2)
4.11.RCC/ACC Manufacturing Overview
4.12.TUFROC
4.13.Advanced TUFROC
4.14.NASA Space Shuttle Orbiter vs SpaceX Starship
4.15.SpaceX Starship TPS
4.16.Thermal Conductivity and Density of Reusable TPS
4.17.Temperature Limits and Material Densities
4.18.Emissivity of TPS
4.19.TPS Component Manufacturers
5.EXPANDABLE AERODYNAMIC DECELERATORS
5.1.Overview
5.1.1.Expandable Aerodynamic Decelerators
5.1.2.Opportunities Enabled by EADs
5.1.3.Challenges for EADs
5.1.4.The Ballistic Coefficient
5.1.5.Ballistic Coefficient - Impact on Heat Flux
5.1.6.Venus Missions - Ballistic Coefficient and Peak Heating
5.1.7.Diameter on Heating
5.1.8.Options for Increasing the Ballistic Coefficient
5.2.HIAD
5.2.1.HIAD Deployment
5.2.2.NASA HIAD Construction
5.2.3.Material Selection for F-TPS
5.2.4.F-TPS
5.2.5.F-TPS Temperature
5.2.6.Aerogels for F-TPS
5.2.7.Gas-Generators
5.2.8.ATMOS PHOENIX - Commercial IAD
5.2.9.Booster Reusability
5.2.10.ULA Vulcan BE-4 Reusability
5.3.MDAD
5.3.1.NASA ADEPT
5.3.2.ADEPT Construction - Spiderweave
5.3.3.Commercial MDADs
6.ABLATIVE TPS
6.1.Overview
6.1.1.Ablative TPS
6.1.2.Ablation Introduction
6.1.3.High Energy Heatshield Environment
6.1.4.Surface Ablation Mechanisms
6.1.5.Pyrolysis
6.1.6.Material Requirements for Ablative Systems
6.1.7.Summary of Ablator Families(1)
6.1.8.Summary of Ablator Families (2)
6.1.9.Ablative TPS Timeline
6.1.10.Ablative Materials - Categorization by Form
6.1.11.Families of Ablators
6.1.12.NASA TPS Portfolio Development
6.2.Honeycomb Ablators
6.2.1.Material Composition of an Ablator (1)
6.2.2.Material Composition of an Ablator (2)
6.2.3.Honeycomb Ablators
6.2.4.Avcoat - Apollo to Orion
6.2.5.Orion Switch to Tiled Avcoat
6.2.6.Compositions of Silicone Ablators
6.3.PICA
6.3.1.PICA
6.3.2.PICA Production
6.3.3.PICA-X for SpaceX Dragon
6.3.4.Reusability of Ablators
6.4.Carbon Phenolic
6.4.1.Carbon Phenolic
6.5.3D Woven TPS
6.5.1.Woven Thermal Protection Systems
6.5.2.HEEET
6.5.3.Woven TPS Range of Densities
6.5.4.Woven TPS Performance Envelope
6.5.5.Woven TPS for Compression Pads on Orion
7.FORECASTS
7.1.Forecasting Overview
7.2.Cost per kg to Orbit
7.3.TPS Cost Progression (1)
7.4.TPS Cost Progression (2) - Ablative
7.5.TPS Cost Progression (3) - Tile-Based
7.6.TPS Cost Progression (3) - Tile-Based
7.7.Number of Flights, 1991-2024
7.8.SpaceX a Dominant Player Among Launch Providers
7.9.Annual Installation Area of Thermal Protection Systems
7.10.Market Value of TPS, 1991-2035
7.11.TPS Market Value Forecast (1)
7.12.TPS Market Value Forecast (2)
 

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Thermal Protection Systems for Spacecraft are forecast to be a US$90 million market by 2035.

Report Statistics

Slides 152
Forecasts to 2035
Published Mar 2025
 

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