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1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
1.1. | Dominant electric commercial vehicle types and influences change |
1.1. | Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2016-2026 |
1.1. | Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2016-2026 |
1.2. | Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2016-2026 |
1.2. | Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2016-2026 |
1.2. | Market forecasts |
1.3. | IDTechEx forecast for commercial vehicles 2016-2026 |
1.3. | Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2016-2026 |
1.3. | Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2016-2026 |
1.4. | Japanese strawberry picking robot |
1.4. | Latest progress |
1.5. | Examples of new industrial and commercial vehicles and projects announced in 2016 |
1.5. | The Wall-Ye V.I.N. robot created by Christophe Millot and Guy Julien, picks grapes in a vineyard |
1.5.1. | Powertrain choices change radically |
1.6. | Electrical machine systems take more cost, batteries less |
1.6. | Daimler is developing the Mercedes-Benz Future Truck 2025, an autonomous vehicle for on-road goods transport. |
1.7. | Peloton Technology |
1.7. | The elephant in the room: conventional vehicles |
1.8. | News in 2016 |
1.8. | Domino's Pizza Enterprises announced its experimental DRU autonomous pizza delivery robot |
1.8.1. | June 2016 |
1.8.2. | July 2016 |
1.8.3. | August 2016 |
1.8.4. | September 2016 |
1.9. | Buses will be taxis will be buses |
1.9. | Bonirob from Deepfield Robotics automates and speeds up analysis. |
1.10. | 'Dancer bus' is a project by JSC 'vėjo projektai' |
1.11. | Citaro will hit the market as an E-Cell (BEV), as well as a F-Cell (FCV) |
1.12. | View of Volvo Group on future of truck powertrains |
1.13. | 48V mild hybrid commercial van |
1.14. | Volvo Truck Technology view of 48V mild hybrid truck opportunity |
1.15. | Nanowinn tourist bus |
1.16. | UQM PowerPhaseDT |
1.17. | Mercedes pure electric eTruck |
1.18. | Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016 |
2. | INTRODUCTION |
2.1. | Urban logistics trends |
2.1. | Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025 |
2.1. | Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color. |
2.2. | Transport of people 2010-2025 |
2.2. | Technology disagreement |
2.3. | The special case of China |
2.3. | LCV and urban bus usage hours |
2.3.1. | Pollution control is urgent |
2.3.2. | Particulate matter - China the worst |
2.3.3. | Inadequate roads and parking |
2.3.4. | Example of action BYD |
2.4. | Biggest EV? |
2.4. | China carbon dioxide emissions vs rest of world |
2.5. | Green vehicles in China 2015-2020 |
2.5. | Different strategies |
2.6. | Battery Vehicle Work Rounds for Very Long Range |
2.6. | Sales of BYD electric buses in China 2015 |
2.6.1. | Light truck with fuel cell, battery and supercapacitor |
2.7. | Reusable electric powertrain |
2.7. | BYD deployment of electric taxis |
2.8. | BYD QIN hybrid car |
2.8. | Here come the tougher emissions regulations |
2.9. | Cars are often fleets not private |
2.9. | Strategy of Iveco Italy in late 2014 |
2.10. | Siemens truck charging |
2.11. | Siemens costings |
2.12. | Catenary truck charging by country |
2.13. | Vehicle architecture and characteristics |
2.14. | Effect of fuel cell on payload. Fuel cell control. |
2.15. | Fuel cell + supercapacitors control |
2.16. | Simulation comparison |
2.17. | Display at EVS29 |
2.18. | Savings and benefits |
2.19. | Layout |
3. | MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS |
3.1. | Trends |
3.1. | Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different forms of on-road passenger transport |
3.1. | Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs |
3.2. | Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric versions |
3.2. | Bus size vs fuel consumption |
3.2. | Advantages of electric commercial vehicles |
3.3. | Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles |
4. | HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS |
4.1. | What is included |
4.1. | Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer |
4.1. | 27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country |
4.2. | Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter |
4.2. | Challenges |
4.3. | Forklifts |
4.3. | Heavy electric vehicle |
4.3.1. | Small forklift success |
4.3.2. | A look at many FC forklifts across the world |
4.3.3. | Plug Power transforms the industry |
4.3.4. | Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT |
4.3.5. | Forklift market analysis |
4.3.6. | FC material handling fleets and standards |
4.3.7. | Market analysis |
4.3.8. | FC material handling fleets and standards |
4.4. | Listing of manufacturers |
4.4. | Toyota fuel cell forklift and other fuel cell vehicles and activities |
4.4.1. | Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck |
4.4.2. | Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs |
4.5. | Fuel cell forklifts from across the world |
4.6. | Refuelling a Plug Power unit |
4.7. | APFCT fuel cell forklift system showing two refueller cabinets |
4.8. | Top 20 industrial lift truck suppliers in 2014 |
4.9. | World industrial truck statistics/orders and shipments |
5. | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL EVS |
5.1. | Introduction |
5.1. | Electric bus in Nepal |
5.1. | 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products |
5.1.1. | Overview |
5.1.2. | One quarter of commercial vehicles in Germany can be electric now? |
5.2. | Sub categories |
5.2. | Kargo Light |
5.3. | Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics |
5.3. | Local services |
5.4. | Airport EVs |
5.4. | Garbage collecting electric car |
5.4.1. | USA statistics |
5.4.2. | GSE by airline and airport |
5.4.3. | Here come hybrids |
5.4.4. | US incentives |
5.4.5. | Overall market |
5.4.6. | Airport applications widen |
5.4.7. | Sea-Tac Airport 2014 |
5.5. | Small people-movers |
5.6. | Chrysler minivan in 2015 |
5.7. | Dong Feng China big minivan order |
5.8. | Kargo Canada |
5.9. | Light industrial |
5.10. | All-terrain vehicles for commercial use |
5.11. | Listing of manufacturers |
6. | BUSES AND TRUCKS |
6.1. | Introduction |
6.1. | Tata Motors CNG hybrid bus in India left and BYD K9 pure electric bus from China right that is the most widely trialled and adopted of its type |
6.1. | Market for conventional diesel buses, hybrid and pure electric buses > 8t by rationale, end game in green |
6.2. | Price spread $K of buses >8t by region and technology 2012 and 2015, with exceptional prices excluded. High priced market red. Low priced market green. Significant price decrease bright green. |
6.2. | Ex-factory lowest price range of diesel, hybrid and pure electric 35-90 seat urban buses in China vs North America/ Europe 2012 and 2015. Chinese cost reduction of hybrids is obscured by move to more expensive hybrids (long range |
6.2. | Summary of technical preferences |
6.3. | Statistics issues |
6.3. | Passenger travel by bus by region in England. |
6.3. | Market drivers and impediments are summarised below. |
6.4. | Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses |
6.4. | BYD articulated pure electric Lancaster bus for 120 passengers with 170 km range announced late 2014 |
6.4. | Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market |
6.5. | Chinese price/performance |
6.5. | The value chain is changing radically due to vehicle design being changed as summarised below. Ladder type hybrid bus chassis top |
6.5. | Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth. Green shows strongest market drivers |
6.6. | League table of EV traction battery manufacturers mWh |
6.6. | Structural supercapacitor as car or bus bodywork, experimental |
6.6. | Cost trends - China ready to pounce |
6.7. | Market drivers and impediments |
6.7. | UITP summary of technological options for buses |
6.7. | The typical chassis-plus-body value chain of hybrid buses 2015. Main added value shown in green |
6.8. | Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus |
6.8. | MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery, the favoured practice in China |
6.8. | Regional differences |
6.9. | China, India and cities |
6.9. | EV powertrain technology roadmap |
6.9. | Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus with structural electronics |
6.10. | Some of the main technological options compared |
6.10. | Percentage share of 92 fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 by fuel cell manufacturer |
6.10. | Radical change |
6.11. | Truly global market for similar buses |
6.11. | North American sales of school buses 2000-2009, total buses sold |
6.11. | Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color. |
6.12. | Some of the factors increasing pure electric bus range 2016-2026 |
6.12. | Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
6.12. | Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5 |
6.13. | Weak trend to larger buses but not in China |
6.13. | Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
6.13. | e-bus drive train technology options compared, with commercially problematic issues highlighted |
6.14. | 2012 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country from OICA correspondents' survey |
6.14. | Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013 |
6.14. | Value chain and powertrain |
6.15. | Hybrids becoming pure electric |
6.15. | The Nikola One has 6×6 all-wheel drive |
6.15. | Second quarter YTD 2014 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country |
6.16. | School bus statistics for USA and China 2015 |
6.16. | The Extended Range Electric Vehicle EREV truck |
6.16. | Relative importance of technical options |
6.17. | Technology disagreement |
6.17. | Planned TEVA hybrid truck and JAC production line. |
6.17. | First half sales by country for commercial vehicles CV 2013/3/4 |
6.18. | Top five bus manufacturers 2005, 2011, 2015, Chinese in red, with output number of buses >8t |
6.18. | EDI CNG hybrid truck |
6.18. | Fuel cell buses: progress and potential |
6.18.1. | Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses |
6.19. | Domestic bus sales in China in October 2014 |
6.19. | Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general |
6.19. | The electric truck by the BMW Group and the SCHERM group |
6.19.1. | Automotive industry |
6.19.2. | School buses |
6.19.3. | Largest bus manufacturers |
6.19.4. | Review of 2012-2014 |
6.20. | Rank of automotive manufacturers by production in 2013. LCV includes Minibuses," derived from light commercial vehicles, are used for the transport of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat a |
6.20. | A Mack® LR® model retrofitted with the Wrightspeed Route™ 1000 powertrain |
6.20. | E-bus news in 2016 |
6.21. | Trucks |
6.21. | Examples of E-bus news in 2016 with IDTechEx comment |
6.21.1. | Which Electric Truck Powertrain Wins? |
6.21.2. | Medium and heavy duty trucks |
6.21.3. | Travel through Munich in a vehicle that is 100% electric, clean, quiet |
6.21.4. | News in June 2016 - Mack Trucks to Evaluate Wrightspeed Route Powertrain in Mack LR Model |
6.21.5. | News in July 2016 - Argonne to lead consortium for new CERC medium- and heavy-duty truck technical track |
6.21.6. | News in August 2016 - Daimler plan heavy duty trucks |
6.21.7. | News in August 2016 - Fuel cell truck |
6.21.8. | News in September 2016 - Volvo first in the world with self-driving truck in underground mine |
7. | TAXIS |
7.1. | Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi |
7.1. | Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan |
7.1. | 19 projects testing pure electric taxis |
7.2. | Huge order from the Philippines? |
7.2. | BYD taxi rollouts in late 2014 |
7.3. | BYD Qin hybrid car |
7.3. | Terra Motors Interview Tokyo September 2015 |
7.3.1. | Introduction |
7.3.2. | Latest market appraisal |
7.3.3. | View of India |
7.3.4. | View of Bangladesh |
7.3.5. | View of Vietnam |
7.3.6. | View of Philippines |
7.3.7. | View of Japan |
7.3.8. | IDTechEx conclusion |
7.4. | The Terra Motors e-trike |
7.5. | E-trikes used as taxis |
7.6. | Logos compared |
7.7. | Expensive version for developed countries and basic version for undeveloped countries |
8. | THREE WHEEL COMMERCIAL VEHICLES |
8.1. | Nissan DeltaWing |
8.1. | Background |
8.1. | Domestic sales by category in India |
8.2. | Planned Deployment of Electric 3 wheelers in India |
8.2. | Three wheelers as crossover products |
8.2. | Energy dissipation through air resistance |
8.3. | Typical Chinese three wheel on-road vehicles. |
8.3. | Operational benefit of three wheel |
8.3.1. | Introduction |
8.3.2. | Nissan DeltaWing |
8.3.3. | The basics driving us to three wheel |
8.3.4. | Energy efficiency |
8.3.5. | Relative magnitude of energy dissipation |
8.3.6. | Occupancy trend favours 3 wheel? |
8.3.7. | Low cost three wheel vehicle market |
8.3.8. | The Indian three wheel market - the largest globally |
8.3.9. | Electric three wheeler penetration |
8.4. | Electric Three Wheel Taxi by LangFang Sandi Electric Tricycle Co. Ltd. |
8.4. | Benefits of three wheelers |
8.5. | Three wheel electric vehicles: varied positioning in the market |
8.5. | Bubble e-bike |
8.5.1. | Twike, Piaggio, Xingui and others contrasted |
8.5.2. | Toyota scenario |
8.5.3. | Spira4u in 2015 |
8.6. | Domestic market share for 2012-13 |
8.6. | Mule: Modern Electric Workhorse to Slice Through Urban Traffic Easily |
8.7. | Barriers for adoption of three wheel EVs |
8.7. | Bajaj Auto is a dealer in the manufacturing of commercial three wheel vehicles |
8.8. | Bajaj Affordable Three Wheel Commercial Vehicle 2014 (2,000 usd) available in Natural Gas, Liquefied Gas and Diesel versions |
8.9. | Electric vehicle cost breakeven |
8.10. | Twike pedal-assisted electric vehicle left in Switzerland and some of the 100 Mexico City pedelec taxis right |
8.11. | Piaggio tilting three wheel scooters with conventional engines and below one from Xingue China |
8.12. | Toyota i-Road pure electric tilting three wheeler |
8.13. | Spira4u |
8.14. | Mule: Modern Electric Workhorse to Slice Through Urban Traffic Easily |
9. | ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING |
9.1. | Overview |
9.1. | Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining |
9.2. | Sanyo commercial vehicle with extending solar panels for charging when stationary and mine with electric trucks using local solar and wind |
9.2. | Value proposition and environmental restrictions |
9.3. | Autonomous vehicles for agriculture and mining |
9.3. | Energy and work synchronization |
9.4. | Pure electric light mining vehicles |
9.4. | Energy and work synchronization in mining |
9.5. | Light manned vehicles - PapaBravo Canada |
9.5. | Bailey hybrid electric crane |
9.6. | Konecranes hybrid electric stacker |
9.6. | Examples of cranes and lifters |
9.7. | Caterpillar and Komatsu: energy harvesting on large hybrid vehicles |
9.7. | Pure electric manlift |
9.7.1. | CALSTART partnerships |
9.7.2. | Other electrification of large vehicles |
10. | KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES |
10.1. | Types of electric vehicle |
10.1. | Hybrid bus powertrain |
10.1. | Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output |
10.2. | Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium |
10.2. | Hybrid car powertrain using CNG |
10.2. | Many fuels |
10.3. | Born electric |
10.3. | Some hybrid variants |
10.3. | Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium |
10.4. | Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020, examples of suppliers and trends |
10.4. | Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids |
10.4. | Pure electric vehicles are improving |
10.5. | Series vs parallel hybrid |
10.5. | Trend to deep hybridisation |
10.5. | What is on the way in or out with traction batteries |
10.6. | Over 450 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders) |
10.6. | Evolution of hybrid structure |
10.6. | Modes of operation of hybrids |
10.6.1. | Plug in hybrids |
10.6.2. | Charge-depleting mode |
10.6.3. | Blended mode |
10.6.4. | Charge-sustaining mode |
10.6.5. | Mixed mode |
10.7. | Microhybrid is a misnomer |
10.7. | Price premium for hybrid buses |
10.7. | Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles |
10.8. | Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles |
10.8. | Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical |
10.8. | Deep hybridisation |
10.9. | Hybrid vehicle price premium |
10.9. | Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored |
10.9. | 68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor details. |
10.10. | Examples of electronics and electrics replacing mechanical parts in electric vehicles. |
10.10. | Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs |
10.10. | Battery cost and performance are key |
10.11. | Trade-off of energy storage technologies |
10.11. | Comparison of battery technologies |
10.11. | Examples of cost reduction of electrics/ electronics by radical alternatives. |
10.12. | Where supercapacitors fit in |
10.12. | Ultracapacitors = supercapacitors |
10.12.1. | Where supercapacitors fit in |
10.12.2. | Advantages and disadvantages |
10.12.3. | Can supercapacitors replace batteries? |
10.12.4. | Supercapacitors - a work round for troublesome batteries |
10.12.5. | Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors |
10.13. | Range extenders |
10.13. | Energy density vs power density for storage devices |
10.13.1. | What will be required of a range extender? |
10.13.2. | Three generations of range extender |
10.13.3. | Fuel cell range extenders |
10.13.4. | Single cylinder range extenders |
10.14. | Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined |
10.14. | Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade. |
10.15. | Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade |
10.15. | Energy harvesting |
10.16. | Trend to high voltage |
10.16. | Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories |
10.17. | Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity |
10.17. | Structural components |
10.18. | Trend to distributed components |
10.18. | The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells |
10.19. | Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years. |
10.19. | Trend to flatness then smart skin |
10.20. | Traction batteries |
10.20. | Electric machine and ICE sub-assembly |
10.20.1. | After the shakeout in car traction batteries |
10.20.2. | The needs have radically changed |
10.20.3. | It started with cobalt |
10.20.4. | Great variety of recipes |
10.20.5. | Other factors |
10.20.6. | Check with reality |
10.20.7. | Lithium winners today and soon |
10.20.8. | Reasons for winning |
10.20.9. | Lithium polymer electrolyte now important |
10.20.10. | Winning chemistry |
10.20.11. | Titanate establishes a place |
10.20.12. | Laminar structure |
10.20.13. | Niche winners |
10.20.14. | Fluid situation |
10.21. | Traction motors |
10.21. | 48V Model chosen |
10.21.1. | Traction motor trends |
10.21.2. | Shape of motors |
10.21.3. | Examples of motors in action |
10.22. | Power electronics |
10.22. | Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade. |
10.23. | Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles |
10.24. | Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles |
10.25. | Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles |
10.26. | Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels |
10.27. | Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution |
10.28. | Volkswagen view of the attractions of 38V |
10.29. | Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution |
10.30. | Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs |
10.31. | Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof |
10.32. | Here comes lithium |
10.33. | Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions. |
11. | INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPANY PROFILES |
11.1. | Ayton Willow |
11.2. | Bradshaw Electric |
11.3. | Caproni JSC |
11.4. | Crown Equipment Corporation |
11.5. | Hyster-Yale |
11.6. | John Deere |
11.7. | Jungheinrich AG |
11.8. | Kion Group GmbH |
11.9. | Liberty Electric Cars |
11.10. | MAN Truck & Bus AG |
11.11. | Toyota Motor |
11.12. | Valence Technologies |
11.13. | VISEDO Oy |
11.14. | ZNTK Radom |
APPENDIX - ELECTRIC AND HYBRID ELECTRIC NON-ROAD EVS NOW AND IN FUTURE | |
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY | |
TABLES | |
FIGURES |
Pages | 326 |
---|---|
Tables | 44 |
Figures | 133 |
Forecasts to | 2026 |