Li-ion Battery Market 2023-2033: Technologies, Players, Applications, Outlooks and Forecasts: IDTechEx

IDTechEx forecast the Li-ion battery market will reach over US$430 billion by 2033

Li-ion Battery Market 2023-2033: Technologies, Players, Applications, Outlooks and Forecasts

Cells, anodes, cathodes, electrolytes and components


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Fundamentally, a Li-ion cell consists of an anode and a cathode, coated onto current collectors, separated by an electrolyte-soaked separator. Packaged in pouch, prismatic or cylindrical formats, they form the basis of Li-ion battery packs. Their comparatively high performance, low cost and wide availability make Li-ion batteries pre-eminent energy storage technology for many applications, from electronics devices to electric vehicles (EVs), to large stationary energy storage systems. As such for most applications, Li-ion batteries, in one form or another, are unlikely to be superseded within the next 10 years. Nevertheless, developments and innovations continue to be made in Li-ion materials, manufacturing, cell design, and pack design and investment into the Li-ion industry continues at a rapid pace.
 
 
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IDTechEx forecast the Li-ion market to grow to over US$430 billion by 2033, driven by demand for electric vehicles. Electric vehicles remain the key driver behind the Li-ion market and electric cars will be the largest market for Li-ion batteries over the next 10 years. Despite the ongoing effects of coronavirus, chip shortages and other supply chain issues, electric car unit sales reached 6.4 million 2021, driven by strong emissions targets and regulations.
 
LFP has been re-gaining market share in EVs since 2021 due its recapture of market share in China in particular. High-nickel layered oxide (NMC/NCA/NCMA) materials will continue to be important, and major cathode manufacturers are looking to move toward 90+% NMC and NCA in a bid to further reduce cobalt content and increase capacity, if only marginally. Difficulties remain in ensuring safety and longevity of these materials. While reducing cobalt content can help reduce material costs and limit exposure to potentially problematically sourced cobalt, a push to limit reliance on cobalt and nickel will increase reliance on China, with the vast majority of LFP production controlled by Chinese companies and fewer plans for LFP production outside the country. This would be contrary to the aims and objectives of governments and players in Europe and North America. In 2021, Chinese companies were responsible for at least 50% of sales of Li-ion cells, cathode and anode materials, electrolytes, separators and copper current collectors.
 
 
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Similar to the situation with cathodes, there are questions over which anodes will be used over the coming decade. For example, silicon has received considerable interest as a replacement for graphite due to its potential for enabling high energy densities and fast charging, but it is still mostly limited to use as an additive to graphite. Despite the growing interest, large potential for, and 30+ start-ups developing silicon anodes, commercial silicon anode material production is dominated by a small number of companies in Asia. Graphite, both synthetic and natural/artificial, is forecast to remain the dominant anode material over the coming decade. The report analyses the trends in use and shares of different Li-ion chemistries. Cost breakdowns and analysis is also provided for different cell chemistries as well as analysis on the impact of recent price material volatility on battery cell price.
 
Given the rapid increase in forecast demand for Li-ion batteries, there has been significant growth in the number of gigafactories being planned and announced over the past 2-3 years. Much of this has been driven by incumbent manufacturers such as CATL, LG Energy Solution, SK Innovation and Samsung SDI but start-ups and early-stage companies are also looking to enter the market, especially in Europe and North America where there is a drive to develop domestic capability. IDTechEx analysis shows that current plans and announcements for new cell production capacity will reach 3 TWh by 2030. While this would not meet forecast demand, the relatively short time-period needed to build new cell production factories allows time for the additional investment and expansion in cell production capacity needed to meet forecast demand from EVs.
 
Despite the undoubted importance of the EV market for the Li-ion industry, stationary energy storage systems are forecast to be the fastest growing market for Li-ion batteries, given the continued drive to adopt increasing levels of variable renewable power sources such as solar PV and wind. While growth in Li-ion demand for electronics devices is forecast to grow at a much slower rate than stationary storage or EVs, the higher price of cells and batteries for electronic devices means considerable market value remains available in these applications. New technologies can therefore make their way onto the market via these applications first, with higher margins on offer alongside shorter product cycles and often less demanding performance requirements compared to EVs.
 
This report provides analysis and reporting on key components, including on cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, separators, copper collectors and additives. For each component, the report provides a breakdown of the key technological developments, in addition to analysis of the market through a study of the key manufacturers, production regions and expansion plans. Li-ion Batteries 2023-2033 provides a comprehensive view of the Li-ion battery market, players, and technology trends. Cost analyses, price forecasts, and 10 year forecasts are provided for Li-ion battery demand by volume (GWh) and value (US$) and broken down by application, cathode type and anode type.
 
 
Key Aspects
This report provides the following information:
 
Technology trends & market analysis
  • Production and capacity outlooks
  • Analysis and discussion of Li-ion technology trends
  • Status of Li-ion cathodes and anodes, including key companies, expansion, chemistry trends (NMC, NCA, NCMA, LFP, LNMO, LCO)
  • Status of Li-ion electrolytes, separators and conductive additives
  • Status of Li-ion global and regional cell manufacturing capacity and expansion
  • Analysis of key players across cell, cathode, anode, electrolyte, separator and current collector producers
  • Li-ion cost and price analysis and forecast
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Trends in the Li-ion market
1.2.Li-ion value chain
1.3.Li-ion market - regional overview
1.4.Li-ion market players
1.5.Cell capacity expansions outlook
1.6.Li-ion graphite anode market overview
1.7.Cathode market overview
1.8.Cathode production capacity outlook
1.9.Key technology developments
1.10.Li-ion timeline - technology and performance
1.11.Li-ion timeline commentary
1.12.Are there alternatives to Li-ion?
1.13.Battery technology readiness level snapshot
1.14.Impact of material price volatility
1.15.Raw material uncertainty
1.16.Policy and the Li-ion battery market
1.17.Electric vehicle policy
1.18.Impact of EV policy
1.19.Li-ion anode forecast, GWh
1.20.Cathode outlook
1.21.Li-ion forecast overview (GWh, $B)
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Importance of Li-ion
2.2.What is a Li-ion battery?
2.3.Lithium battery chemistries
2.4.Types of lithium battery
2.5.Why lithium?
2.6.Primary lithium batteries
2.7.Ragone plots
2.8.More than one type of Li-ion battery
2.9.Commercial anodes - graphite
2.10.The battery trilemma
2.11.Battery wish list
2.12.Why can't you just fast charge?
2.13.Rate limiting factors at the material level
2.14.Fast charge design hierarchy
2.15.Electrochemistry definitions 1
2.16.Electrochemistry definitions 2
2.17.Useful charts for performance comparison
3.ANODES
3.1.Overview
3.1.1.Anode materials
3.1.2.Introduction to graphite
3.1.3.Natural graphite for LIBs
3.1.4.Coated spherical purified graphite (CSPG)
3.1.5.Synthetic/artificial graphite production
3.1.6.Natural or synthetic graphite in Li-ion batteries?
3.1.7.Synthetic/artificial vs natural graphite
3.1.8.Impact of graphite choice on cost
3.1.9.Performance of synthetic and natural graphite
3.1.10.Synthetic vs natural graphite overview
3.1.11.Synthetic vs natural graphite conclusions
3.1.12.Artificial/synthetic and natural graphite market split
3.1.13.Graphite outlook
3.1.14.Suppliers of active graphite material
3.1.15.Graphite anode market shares
3.1.16.Graphite anode market concentration
3.1.17.Geographic breakdown of graphite anode suppliers
3.1.18.Expansions in graphite production
3.1.19.New entrants in graphite anodes
3.2.Silicon
3.2.1.The promise of silicon
3.2.2.Value proposition of high silicon content anodes
3.2.3.The reality of silicon
3.2.4.Alloy anode materials
3.2.5.Comparing silicon - a high-level overview
3.2.6.How much can silicon improve energy density?
3.2.7.Cost reductions from silicon
3.2.8.Current silicon use
3.2.9.Silicon use in EVs
3.2.10.Silicon and LFP
3.2.11.Commercial silicon anode production
3.2.12.Commercial silicon anode production
3.2.13.Commercial silicon anodes
3.2.14.Commercial silicon anodes
3.2.15.Will silicon content increase steadily?
3.2.16.Start-ups developing silicon anode solutions
3.2.17.Regional Si-anode activity
3.2.18.Money in silicon anode start-ups
3.2.19.Silicon anode value chain
3.2.20.Li-ion anode forecast, GWh
4.CATHODES
4.1.Cathode technology
4.1.1.Cathode recap
4.1.2.Cathode materials - LCO and LFP
4.1.3.Cathode materials - NMC, NCA and LMO
4.1.4.Cathode performance comparison
4.1.5.Understanding layered oxide cathodes
4.1.6.Why LCO for consumer devices?
4.1.7.Cathode powder synthesis (NMC)
4.1.8.Cathode development
4.1.9.Complexity of cathode chemistry
4.1.10.NMC development - from 111 to 811
4.1.11.Cathode materials - NCA
4.1.12.Stabilising high-nickel NMC
4.1.13.Cathode concentration gradient
4.1.14.Protective coatings
4.1.15.High nickel cathode stabilisation
4.1.16.Protective coatings
4.1.17.Single crystal NCA cathode
4.1.18.LFP vs NMC
4.1.19.LMFP cathodes
4.1.20.LMFP commercialisation
4.1.21.Future cathode possibilities
4.1.22.High manganese cathodes
4.1.23.NCMA
4.1.24.Beyond metal percentages
4.1.25.Manganese rich cathodes
4.1.26.High-Ni, High-Mn cathodes
4.1.27.High voltage cathodes - LNMO
4.1.28.Future cathode prospects
4.1.29.Future NMC/NCM - Umicore
4.1.30.Patent litigation over NMC/NCM - Umicore vs. BASF
4.1.31.Patent litigation over NMC/NCM - Umicore vs. BASF
4.1.32.LFP IP
4.1.33.Cathode comparisons - overview
4.1.34.Players developing next-gen cathodes
4.1.35.Cathode performance comparison
4.1.36.Chemistry energy density comparison
4.1.37.Comparing commercial cell chemistries
4.1.38.Impact of material price volatility
4.1.39.Impact of material price
4.1.40.Impact of lithium price increase on cell material cost
4.1.41.Cathode cost breakdown
4.1.42.Cathode price fluctuations
4.1.43.Cathode cost trend analysis
4.1.44.Cathode outlook - which chemistries will be used? 1
4.1.45.Cathode outlook - which chemistries will be used? 2
4.1.46.Cathode suitability
4.1.47.LFP adoption in electric vehicles
4.2.Cathode market and forecasts
4.2.1.Cathode market overview
4.2.2.Cathode player manufacturing capacities
4.2.3.Cathode manufacturer market share
4.2.4.Geographical control of cathode production
4.2.5.Geographical breakdown of cathode production
4.2.6.Geographical breakdown of cathode capacity
4.2.7.Chemistry production spread
4.2.8.LFP cathode production dominated by China
4.2.9.New entrants
4.2.10.Future production capacity outlook
4.2.11.Future production capacity outlook by chemistry
4.2.12.Future cathode production capacity outlook by chemistry
4.2.13.Cathode shares in battery electric cars
4.2.14.BEV market by cathode
4.2.15.BEV cathode share by region
4.2.16.Global cathode market share trend
4.2.17.Cathode outlook
4.2.18.Cathode outlook - annotated
4.2.19.Li-ion electronics market by cathode, GWh
4.2.20.Li-ion market by cathode, GWh
5.INACTIVE MATERIALS
5.1.Binders and conductive additives
5.1.1.Binders
5.1.2.Binders - aqueous vs non-aqueous
5.1.3.Conductive agents
5.1.4.Results showing impact of CNT use in Li-ion electrodes
5.1.5.Improved performance at higher C-rate
5.1.6.Thicker electrodes enabled by CNT mechanical performance
5.1.7.Significance of dispersion in energy storage
5.1.8.Production capacity of CNTs globally
5.1.9.Introduction to Li-ion electrolytes
5.1.10.Electrolyte decomposition
5.1.11.Electrolyte additives 1
5.1.12.Electrolyte additives 2
5.1.13.Electrolyte additives 3
5.1.14.Developments for the "million mile" battery
5.1.15.Electrolyte patent topic comparisons - key battery players
5.1.16.Electrolyte patent topic comparisons - key electrolyte players
5.1.17.Electrolyte technology overview
5.1.18.Electrolyte value chain
5.1.19.Electrolyte manufacturers
5.1.20.Electrolyte market
5.1.21.Electrolyte market by region
5.1.22.Electrolyte suppliers
5.2.Separators
5.2.1.Introduction to Separators
5.2.2.Separator manufacturing
5.2.3.Polyolefin separators
5.2.4.Wet and dry separators
5.2.5.Dry and wet separators and specifications
5.2.6.Product specification examples
5.2.7.Separator coatings
5.2.8.Innovation in separators
5.2.9.Innovation in separators
5.2.10.Li-ion separator market
5.2.11.Key separator players
5.2.12.Separator market by region
5.2.13.Future separator production capacity
5.3.Solid electrolytes
5.3.1.What is a solid-state battery?
5.3.2.Drivers for solid-state and silicon
5.3.3.Solid-state electrolytes
5.3.4.Partnerships and investors - solid-state and silicon
5.3.5.Potential disruptors to conventional Li-ion
5.3.6.Cell chemistry comparison - quantitative
5.4.Current collectors
5.4.1.Where are the current collectors in a Li-ion battery cell?
5.4.2.Current collector materials
5.4.3.Copper foil production
5.4.4.Current collectors
5.4.5.Decreasing foil thickness
5.4.6.Trends in copper foil thickness
5.4.7.Mesh current collectors
5.4.8.Perforated foils
5.4.9.Plastic current collectors
5.4.10.Key copper foil manufacturers
5.4.11.Li-ion copper foil market
6.CELL MANUFACTURING
6.1.Overview
6.1.1.Cell production outline
6.1.2.Power demand of LIB production
6.1.3.Cell production
6.1.4.The need for a dry room
6.1.5.Electrode slurry mixing
6.1.6.Dry-electrode processing
6.1.7.Benefits of dry electrode manufacturing
6.1.8.Dry vs aqueous electrode manufacturing
6.1.9.Formation cycling
6.1.10.Areas for improvement in cell production
6.1.11.How will cell manufacturing start-ups compete?
6.2.Cell manufacturers and expansions
6.2.1.Cell manufacturer capacity
6.2.2.Large players dominate cell production
6.2.3.Battery manufacturer splits
6.2.4.Electric car (BEV + PHEV) market by battery manufacturer
6.2.5.Electric car battery (BEV + PHEV) manufacturer shares
6.2.6.Electric car battery manufacturer market
6.2.7.Electric car (BEV + PHEV) battery manufacturer market by region
6.2.8.Electric car battery manufacturer market by region
6.2.9.How long to build a Gigafactory?
6.2.10.How much to build a Gigafactory?
6.2.11.Gigafactory expansions
6.2.12.Gigafactory expansion plans
6.2.13.Cell capacity expansions - Europe
6.2.14.Cell capacity expansion - North America
6.2.15.Cell capacity expansion - Asia
6.2.16.Cell capacity expansions outlook
6.2.17.Cell production capacity-demand balances
6.2.18.Cell capacity expansions data
7.COST ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS
7.1.Commodity price volatility
7.2.Impact of material price
7.3.Cell cost analysis
7.4.Cost breakdown
7.5.How low can cell costs go?
7.6.Historic average cell price
7.7.Historic energy storage cost reduction
7.8.LIB cell price forecast methodology
7.9.Cell price forecast
7.10.BEV car pack price
8.MODULES AND PACKS
8.1.Commercial battery packaging technologies
8.2.Automotive format choices
8.3.Comparison of commercial cell formats
8.4.4680 cylindrical cells
8.5.Li-ion Batteries: From Cell to Pack
8.6.Pack design
8.7.Battery KPIs for EVs
8.8.Henkel's Battery Pack Materials
8.9.DuPont's Battery Pack Materials
8.10.Lightweighting Battery Enclosures
8.11.Lightweighting - Voltabox expanded plastic foam
8.12.Latest Composite Battery Enclosures
8.13.Towards Composite Enclosures?
8.14.Continental Structural Plastics - Honeycomb Technology
8.15.Battery Enclosure Materials Summary
8.16.Modular pack designs
8.17.Ultium BMS
8.18.BYD Blade battery
8.19.BYD battery design
8.20.CATL Cell to Pack
8.21.Module and pack manufacturing process
8.22.Non-car battery pack manufacturing
8.23.Differences in design
8.24.Battery pack comparison
8.25.Battery module/pack comparison
9.APPLICATIONS AND MARKETS
9.1.Power range for electronic and electrical devices
9.2.Application battery priorities
9.3.Electric Vehicle Terms
9.4.COP 26 transport targets
9.5.Battery electric cars
9.6.Hybrid electric vehicles
9.7.Passenger Car Market
9.8.Notable players for solid-state EV battery technology
9.9.Notable players for silicon EV battery technology
9.10.Solid-state and silicon timeline
9.11.Other Vehicle Categories
9.12.Electric Buses: Market History
9.13.Electric light commercial vehicles
9.14.Electric medium and heavy duty trucks
9.15.Two- and three-wheelers
9.16.Electronic devices - key applications
9.17.Consumer electronics
9.18.Power tools and appliances
9.19.Consumer electronics - battery to device price ratios
9.20.Stationary storage
10.FORECASTS
10.1.Li-ion forecast, by application (GWh)
10.2.Li-ion forecast, by application, tables
10.3.Li-ion forecast, $ billion
10.4.Li-ion forecasts, by application (GWh)
10.5.Li-ion BEV forecast by cathode (GWh)
10.6.Li-ion forecast, electric vehicles (GWh)
10.7.Li-ion forecasts, electronics (GWh)
10.8.Li-ion market by cathode, GWh
10.9.Cathode outlook
10.10.Li-ion anode forecast, GWh
11.COMPANY PROFILES
11.1.CATL
11.2.LG Energy Solution
11.3.EcoPro BM
11.4.Posco Chemical
11.5.Tinci Materials
11.6.SK Innovation (SK On)
11.7.Nano One Materials
11.8.Group14 Technologies
11.9.Toshiba (LTO Batteries)
11.10.Birla Carbon
11.11.CENS Materials
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 338
Forecasts to 2033
Published Oct 2022
ISBN 9781915514264
 

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