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Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030

Market/ technology forecasts, project appraisals, hybrid/ pure electric, VTOL/ CTOL, crewed and autonomous passenger transport

Brand new for May 2019

By Dr Peter Harrop and Dr Richard Collins

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The 152 page new IDTechEx report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030" does not pull its punches.

Its densely packed new infograms and forecasts of both technology and sales clearly present what are often surprising results. They come from new facts-based analysis over 100 participating companies, conferences, databases, interviews and more by its globe-trotting PhD level researchers.

There are going to be some dramatic winners and losers in all this. Amazing new technologies are in the pipeline. The report explains the significance of such things as distributed thrust with up to 30 thrusters, ionic thrust, rise-and-glide, cryogenic fuel cell, superconducting motors and powertrain and other routes to even airliners going pure electric. For example, grasp how power electronics, regenerative propellers and solar/ supercapacitor bodywork will assist.

This is a story of three options for new manned electrically-driven aircraft. Small fixed-wing pure-electric is strongly trading now. Larger hybrid and pure electric aircraft up to regional aircraft will be with us within ten years - a huge addressable market. The wild card is vertical-takeoff pure-electric aircraft as air taxis and personal aircraft with huge challenges and opportunities assessed.

The IDTechEx report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030" has a comprehensive Executive Summary and Conclusions with ten primary conclusions then electric powertrain types explained with timelines by IDTechEx and leading players. See their future evolution and how the top down approach of More Electric Aircraft MEA contributes. Addressable markets are scoped such as pilot training need by region, the number of elderly Cessnas urgently needing replacement plus the long range and the city and airport VTOL opportunity. The VTOL market barriers and costs are examined with FAA and other views. 42 key players are compared here. Projects are then examined for payback, geography, range by type and years ahead and more. Learn motor types by project and kW/kg, technology timelines to 2050, adoption dynamics 2020-2030. When will the killer blow of lower up-front price happen by type/ year 2020-2040? See Siemens, NASA, Airbus, Uber and IDTechEx projections to 2040 for everything from regulations to adoption of new principles of flight. For 2019-2030 see the new IDTechEx number and value market forecasts by year for seven categories of electric manned aircraft with assumptions and explanation.

The Introduction then examines powertrain options in more detail and gives the complexity roadmap as influenced by electrification, in-mold electronics, wireless boards and more. What new functions get added? What are the many options for energy harvesting at both aircraft and board level? See emissions, regulations and legislative drivers 2020-2040 and benchmark land transport.

Chapter 3 Technologies explores progress to the end game of energy independence. Energy storage, batteries, motors (ten trends), power electronics and energy harvesting get detailed treatment with many examples.

Chapter 4 gives detail and analysis on ten important developers and manufacturers and their views and many programs involving both startlingly new technology and new electric aircraft. Throughout the report there are many examples of recent activity, interviews and intentions with many illustrations making it all very easy to grasp from battery reduction to technology transfer arriving from drones and Tesla cars. Only IDTechEx gives this big picture with technical depth in its report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2020-2030". The future has arrived and traditional aircraft companies not paying attention will be in danger.

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Table of Contents

1.	EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.	Manned aircraft: why go electric?
1.1.1.	Definition
1.1.2.	Strongest justification 2020-2030
1.1.3.	Additional justification mainly earning from 2030-2050
1.2.	Primary conclusions
1.2.1.	Progression: coming at it from both ends
1.2.2.	Leading developers
1.2.3.	VTOL vs CTOL
1.2.4.	Hybrid fixed wing
1.2.5.	Hybrid VTOL
1.2.6.	Pure electric VTOL
1.2.7.	The industry is at a fault line
1.2.8.	Traditional aerospace companies have mostly had a top down approach
1.2.9.	Formidable new competitors arrive
1.2.10.	Regional differences
1.3.	Categorisation of manned electric aircraft and powertrains
1.3.1.	Aircraft types
1.3.2.	Powertrain types
1.4.	Major challenges associated with crewed electric aircraft
1.5.	More electric aircraft
1.6.	Addressable markets
1.6.1.	Current short and medium-range addressable market
1.6.2.	Current long-range addressable market
1.6.3.	New addressable market VTOL, ESTOL
1.7.	VTOL market barriers and costs
1.7.1.	VTOL market barriers
1.7.2.	VTOL costs
1.7.3.	Comparison of VTOL options
1.8.	Project analysis
1.8.1.	Overview of projects
1.8.2.	42 key players and models by category
1.8.3.	Some successful full-scale crewed flight tests
1.8.4.	Example of much lower TCO and operating cost: Bye Aerospace eFlyer 2
1.8.5.	Projects - Geographical Distribution
1.8.6.	Project analysis - anticipated range and climb
1.8.7.	Project analysis - lightweighting
1.9.	Analysis of electric motor types in electric aircraft
1.10.	Timelines 2020 to 2050
1.10.1.	Adoption of crewed electric aircraft 2020-2050
1.10.2.	Adoption dynamics, hybrid, pure electric 2020-2030 with examples
1.10.3.	The killer blow of lower cost for electric aircraft by year and size 2020-2040
1.10.4.	View to 2050 from major players
1.10.5.	Regulatory barriers, legislative drivers, certification 2020-2050
1.11.	Market size
1.11.1.	Market forecast value by type $M 2019-2039
1.11.2.	Market forecast 2019-2030 number vs value
1.11.3.	Forecast assumptions
1.11.4.	Run before you can walk?
2.	INTRODUCTION
2.1.	Powertrain options
2.1.1.	Overview
2.1.2.	Rolls Royce view of electric aircraft powertrain options
2.2.	NASA studies of issues
2.3.	Complexity roadmap
2.3.1.	Radical simplification
2.3.2.	Aircraft example
2.3.3.	How it is done: electrification, wireless and structural electronics
2.3.4.	Very useful new functions can then be added
2.4.	Emissions, regulations, legislative drivers 2020-2040
2.5.	Follower
3.	TECHNOLOGIES
3.1.	Progress towards the end game
3.1.1.	Energy independent electric vehicles
3.1.2.	Energy storage
3.1.3.	Motors
3.1.4.	Other key enabling technologies
3.1.5.	Structural supercapacitors ZapGo, Lamborghini Terzo Millennio and aircraft later
3.2.	Batteries
3.2.1.	Aircraft battery demand
3.2.2.	Lithium-ion battery design
3.2.3.	What does an EV battery pack look like? What is needed?
3.2.4.	Bye Aerospace battery lessons learned
3.2.5.	Even better batteries and supercapacitors a real prospect: future W/kg vs Wh/kg
3.2.6.	Active electrode options: changing too fast?
3.2.7.	Li-ion battery adoption by type of EV
3.2.8.	Future types of battery for EVs
3.2.9.	Alternative battery technologies for future EVs
3.2.10.	Other options
3.2.11.	Progress to less and no battery
3.3.	Motors
3.3.1.	Overview
3.3.2.	Market dynamics 2020-2030
3.3.3.	Analysis of electric motor types in ten electric aircraft
3.3.4.	Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air
3.3.5.	Examples of traction machine technologies by operating principle
3.3.6.	Traction machine-with-controller value market: new vehicles 2030 % by vehicle application
3.3.7.	Where the profit will lie: traction machine value gross margin 2030 % by sector
3.3.8.	Ten traction machine trends 2020-30
3.3.9.	Permanent magnets more popular but eventually unnecessary?
3.4.	Power electronics
3.4.1.	Taking more percentage of aircraft cost
3.4.2.	NASA improvement map
3.4.3.	Voltage increase
3.4.4.	More and more power electronics: complexity, proliferation, added types
3.5.	Energy harvesting
3.5.1.	Overview
3.5.2.	EH transducer principles and materials
3.5.3.	EH technologies by actual and potential usefulness
3.5.4.	Challenges of EH technologies
3.5.5.	Integrated multi-mode energy harvesting
3.5.6.	EV end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
3.5.7.	Lessons from UAVs
4.	IMPORTANT PROJECTS AND MANUFACTURERS: EXAMPLES
4.1.	Airbus
4.1.1.	eCriCri, E-fan, CityAirbus, Vahana, EPJ
4.1.2.	Air Race E
4.2.	Boeing
4.2.1.	VTOL X-plane and PAV
4.3.	GE Aviation
4.4.	Joby Aviation
4.5.	Kitty Hawk
4.6.	Lilium
4.7.	NASA
4.7.1.	Requirement study
4.7.2.	Distributed thrust: X57 Maxwell
4.7.3.	Cryogenic hydrogen fuel cell
4.8.	Rolls Royce
4.8.1.	Hybrid testbed
4.8.2.	VTOL
4.8.3.	ACCEL highest speed
4.8.4.	Lightweight superconducting electric motor: regional aircraft
4.9.	Tesla Aircraft
4.10.	United Technologies X-plane
4.11.	Volocopter