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Near Field Communication (NFC) 2014-2024
Mobile phone and other NFC: market forecasts, technology, players
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Near Field Communication (NFC) is mainly useful in mobile phones and tablets for close range transactions/data exchange. The phone becomes an RFID reader or tag. It can read tags on bottles and posters. Over 200 million NFC-enabled mobile phones have recently been deployed: Manufacturers controlling 85% of the mobile phone and tablet market include it. This report critically looks at uses, forecasts, technology, global situation, competing technologies, timelines.
NFC could never be used in a major way until it was widely deployed in devices. In the last year that deployment has happened very rapidly. Now the questions are what will be the major applications? Who in the value chain will mainly benefit? The world's leading financial card companies, mobile phone operators, manufacturers, chip makers, consumer goods companies and others are intensely interested and investing strongly.
Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2014*
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
Source: IDTechEx
NFC is a set of short-range wireless technologies, typically requiring a distance of 4cm or less to initiate a connection partly because people do not trust making secure transactions at the longer distances typical with Bluetooth, WiFi and other short range radio protocols. The most popular mobile phone and tablet operating system is heavily committed to NFC.
Mobile phones continue to be by far the most important potential and actual focus of NFC; the technology is particularly suitable for them. The SIM card in your mobile phone is a smart card identifying your account to the network. On NFC phones, the SIM is being extended to act as the Secure Element that can hold other apps such as payment cards. For example, NFC allows you to share small packets of data between an NFC tag and an Android-powered device, or between two Android-powered devices. Most contactless point-of-sale payment systems use an NFC-compatible contactless interface and many of the world's transportation access systems are NFC compatible so considerable infrastructure is already in place for use by NFC-enabled devices. Although progress with transport systems and payments is slow.
Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2013-2015* with % penetration
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
Source: IDTechEx
Many trials of other potential uses of NFC continue to be created but they tend to be a poor indication of what happens at rollout. To say contactless cards are NFC is playing with words: they predate NFC and would succeed if NFC had never been invented.
This report examines the existing and future applications of NFC technology and the major players competing in the market, along with ten year market forecasts. It covers issues such as standardization, security and licensing, plus global progress split by country and key interviews from 2013.
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| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
| 1.1. | Important milestones in the adoption and use of NFC 2014-2024 |
| 1.1. | Forms of NFC and non-NFC digital cash with examples |
| 1.1. | Timelines for NFC adoption |
| 1.2. | Great potential |
| 1.2. | Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted |
| 1.2. | IDTechEx conclusions about the status and potential of NFC technology |
| 1.3. | Comments by supporters and skeptics of NFC in 2013 |
| 1.3. | Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration |
| 1.3. | Forecasts 2014-2024 |
| 1.4. | The purpose of NFC |
| 1.4. | Retrevo Pulse study of NFC payment attitudes |
| 1.4. | Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted |
| 1.5. | Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration |
| 1.5. | Data rate vs range for short range radio protocols |
| 1.5. | NFC Forum |
| 1.6. | Massive rollout in 2013-14 |
| 1.6. | Scope of the NFC Forum |
| 1.6. | Phases of attempted rollout of NFC uses |
| 1.7. | Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain |
| 1.7. | Sensor fusion and NFC |
| 1.8. | Internet of Things and NFC |
| 1.8. | NFC in the trough of disillusionment |
| 1.9. | Samsung TecTiles |
| 1.9. | Security and privacy concerns |
| 1.10. | Lessons from NFC World Congress Nice France |
| 1.10. | Sensor fusion - the human model |
| 1.11. | Micro electromechanical systems MEMS and sensor fusion |
| 1.11. | Other impediments to use of NFC |
| 1.12. | Apple iBeacon |
| 1.12. | Sensor fusion enabling context awareness. |
| 1.13. | Objects connected to the internet 2012-2020 |
| 1.13. | ISO 15693 vs ISO 14443 for NFC |
| 1.14. | Freescale view of The Internet of Things embracing NFC |
| 1.15. | Attempt to link the Internet of Things with NFC |
| 1.16. | Many options for a typical interrogation |
| 1.17. | Store Electronic Systems activity in stores up to and including NFC enabled shelf edge devices |
| 1.18. | Store Electronic Systems' NFC perception and achievements |
| 1.19. | Smart meter potential revealed |
| 1.20. | ETRI Programmable NFC sensor card |
| 1.21. | NFC labels on display |
| 1.22. | Murata and Todo Kogyo ultra-small NFC tags |
| 1.23. | Screen with NFC-enabled images |
| 1.24. | V Wand - NFC to item then Bluetooth to tablet |
| 1.25. | Number of transaction cards on issue globally 2012 and 2018 |
| 1.26. | Legic experience of NFC phones for secure access and payment |
| 1.27. | Various NFC related forecasts by analysts |
| 1.28. | NFC collision of mega industries |
| 1.29. | A realistic GSMA view at a recent event |
| 1.30. | GSMA view of impediments to widespread NFC use in mobile commerce |
| 1.31. | Challenge of changes in payment transaction flow and complexity of transportation payment systems |
| 1.32. | Infineon vision for NFC in mobile devices |
| 1.33. | Sony vision of NFC applications |
| 1.34. | Example of NFC beyond payment - one touch listening. |
| 1.35. | NFC has its broadest and biggest opportunity beyond payment. NFC labels on London taxi left and train right for instant WiFi access etc. |
| 2. | WHAT IS NFC? |
| 2.1. | Spot the NFC. The inside of a Samsung Galaxy 4 phone |
| 2.1. | NFC modes |
| 2.2. | GSMA |
| 2.2. | Some potential and actual uses of NFC |
| 2.2. | NFC compared with other forms of short range radio - Bluetooth, Bluetooth Low Energy, WiFi |
| 2.3. | NFC data rate and coding for active (powered) and passive (unpowered) devices |
| 2.3. | NFC ecosystem |
| 2.3. | Store Logistics and Payment with NFC: StoLPaN |
| 2.4. | Other standardization bodies involved |
| 2.4. | NFC underlying layers |
| 2.4. | The good and bad of contactless cards and tickets vs RFID enabled phones |
| 2.5. | Modes of NFC security attacks, counter action and compromises arising. |
| 2.5. | Basic functionality of an NFC enabled phone |
| 2.5. | Security - a tradeoff |
| 2.6. | Recent successful security attacks |
| 2.6. | NFC RF standards for coding, modulation and data rate compared |
| 2.7. | Embedded secure element vs SIM secure element |
| 2.8. | Licensing IP |
| 3. | COMPETITION FOR NFC |
| 3.1. | Forms of NFC and non-NFC digital cash with examples. |
| 3.1. | Digital cash and NFC |
| 3.2. | Digital wallet |
| 3.2. | Apple Passbook in action |
| 3.3. | Dwolla in action |
| 3.3. | Digital wallets and similar functions in action |
| 3.3.1. | Apple Pay and Apple Passbook |
| 3.3.2. | cashcloud |
| 3.3.3. | Dwolla |
| 3.3.4. | Geode by iCache |
| 3.3.5. | Google wallet |
| 3.3.6. | ISIS |
| 3.3.7. | Lemon Wallet |
| 3.3.8. | PayPal and Chirpify |
| 3.3.9. | Square Wallet |
| 3.3.10. | Venmo |
| 3.4. | Geode wallet |
| 3.5. | Google wallet |
| 3.6. | ISIS wallet |
| 3.7. | Lemon Wallet in action |
| 3.8. | PayPal Here in action |
| 3.9. | Square Wallet functionality |
| 4. | NFC ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES |
| 4.1. | Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain |
| 4.1. | NFC Achievements |
| 4.2. | NFC challenges |
| 5. | PHASES OF NFC ROLLOUT & MARKET FORECASTS |
| 5.1. | Phases of attempted rollout of NFC uses |
| 5.1. | Billing View NFC survey summary |
| 5.1. | Phases of NFC rollout |
| 5.2. | Market forecasts |
| 5.2. | Blackberry NFC system |
| 5.2. | Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted |
| 5.2.1. | Market for PCs, tablets, mobile phones and derivatives |
| 5.2.2. | Market for NFC-enabled mobile phones and other devices |
| 5.2.3. | e-commerce forecasts |
| 5.3. | Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration |
| 5.3. | How you currently use NFC |
| 5.4. | Where you want to use NFC |
| 5.5. | Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted |
| 5.6. | Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration |
| 5.7. | Global card base by type of card in billions 2012 and 2018 as analysed in 2013 |
| 5.8. | Global share of payment cards by scheme 2012 as analysed in 2013 |
| 6. | GLOBAL PROGRESS WITH NFC IN 2014 |
| 6.1. | Main impediment to NFC consumer adoption by country in 2014 |
| 6.1. | Kontaktpunkt NFC tags |
| 6.1. | Australia |
| 6.1.1. | Intentions of European Telcos |
| 6.2. | Austria |
| 6.2. | Sony Felica and the situation in Japan |
| 6.3. | Transition approach Felica to NFC |
| 6.3. | Canada |
| 6.4. | Chile |
| 6.5. | China |
| 6.6. | Czech Republic |
| 6.7. | Finland |
| 6.8. | France |
| 6.9. | Germany |
| 6.10. | Hong Kong |
| 6.11. | India |
| 6.12. | Ireland |
| 6.13. | Israel |
| 6.14. | Italy |
| 6.15. | Japan |
| 6.15.1. | Pioneering Sony, payment and transport statistics, Felica |
| 6.16. | Korea |
| 6.17. | Malaysia |
| 6.18. | New Zealand |
| 6.19. | Nigeria |
| 6.20. | Poland |
| 6.21. | Romania |
| 6.22. | Russia |
| 6.23. | Singapore |
| 6.24. | Slovakia |
| 6.25. | Spain |
| 6.26. | Taiwan |
| 6.27. | Turkey |
| 6.28. | Ukraine |
| 6.29. | United Kingdom |
| 6.30. | USA |
| 6.30.1. | Apple Pay and NFC meet retail opposition 2014/ 2015 |
| 6.30.2. | US mobile commerce joint venture |
| 6.30.3. | NFC for the Fleet |
| 6.30.4. | Nintendo figures |
| 7. | NFC IMPLICATIONS OF SENSOR FUSION, INTERNET OF THINGS, RFID, INDOOR POSITIONING SYSTEMS |
| 7.1. | Examples of RFID orders, projects and typical benefits by application |
| 7.1. | Sensor fusion - the human model |
| 7.1. | Sensor fusion and NFC |
| 7.2. | The Internet of Things and NFC |
| 7.2. | Ubiquitous sensors enabling innovative applications that will lead to sensor fusion |
| 7.2. | Total RFID Market Projections in US dollar billions 2012-2022 |
| 7.3. | Market projections by tag type for 2012-2022 |
| 7.3. | Micro electromechanical systems MEMS and sensor fusion |
| 7.3. | RFID and NFC |
| 7.4. | How governments drive most of the market |
| 7.4. | Freescale multi-sensor platform |
| 7.4. | Number (in millions) of passive tags by application 2012-2022 |
| 7.5. | Average passive tag price per application in US cents 2012-2022 |
| 7.5. | Sensor fusion enables unprecedented context awareness |
| 7.5. | Non-government successes |
| 7.6. | Continued recession-proof rapid growth |
| 7.6. | Objects connected to the internet 2012-2020 |
| 7.6. | Value of passive tags by application 2012-2022 (US Dollar Millions) |
| 7.7. | Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2012-2022 |
| 7.7. | Freescale view of The Internet of Things embracing NFC |
| 7.7. | Strange behaviour |
| 7.8. | Technical trends |
| 7.8. | Much to leverage in the new approach to the Internet of Things |
| 7.8. | Average active tag price per application in US cents 2012-2022 |
| 7.9. | Value of active tags by application 2012-2022 (US Dollar Millions) |
| 7.9. | Number of case studies by tag location - worldwide |
| 7.9. | Favourite RFID frequency |
| 7.10. | Watch the BRICS |
| 7.10. | Number of case studies by project status - worldwide |
| 7.10. | Number of tags (billions) total RFID market 2012-2022 |
| 7.11. | Value US$ billion of total RFID market EXCLUDING CARDS 2012-2022 |
| 7.11. | Number of case studies active vs passive - worldwide |
| 7.11. | Russia |
| 7.12. | China |
| 7.12. | Number of case studies by frequency - worldwide |
| 7.12. | Number of tags sold by application in 2011 and the total tag value |
| 7.13. | Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2013-2024 |
| 7.13. | Number of case studies read-only vs read/write - worldwide |
| 7.13. | Today's leaders continue to excel |
| 7.14. | Wider still and wider |
| 7.14. | Number of case studies by applications - worldwide |
| 7.14. | Primary market objective for IPS vs RTLS |
| 7.15. | Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by application |
| 7.15. | Number of case studies by tag shape - worldwide |
| 7.15. | Analysis of cumulative number of RFID projects analysed |
| 7.16. | Market projections 2012-2022 |
| 7.16. | Market comparison by tag type and by value chain position from 2012 to 2017 |
| 7.16. | Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by country |
| 7.17. | Number of organisations identified in the IPS and RTLS value chains by country |
| 7.17. | Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2013-2024 |
| 7.17. | Rapid growth |
| 7.18. | RFID during turmoil in the global economy |
| 7.18. | Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by application |
| 7.18. | Relative emphasis on IPS, RTLS or both in the value chain by number of organisations identified in the survey. |
| 7.19. | Number times magnitude of potential system spend over the years on IPS and/or RTLS by location |
| 7.19. | Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by country |
| 7.19. | Contactless smart cards dominate by value |
| 7.20. | RFID Forecasts by tag location - passive tags |
| 7.20. | Number of organisations identified in the IPS and RTLS value chains by country |
| 7.21. | Relative emphasis on IPS, RTLS or both in the value chain by number of organisations identified in the survey. |
| 7.21. | RFID forecasts by tag location - active and battery assisted tags |
| 7.22. | RFID will not be big in China, it will be huge |
| 7.22. | Ranking of frequencies by popularity in the survey |
| 7.23. | Basic RF measuring principle - relative popularity vs ultrasound |
| 7.23. | Lessons from the last ten years |
| 7.24. | Pallet/case tagging |
| 7.25. | Drugs |
| 7.26. | Airline Baggage |
| 7.27. | Retail apparel, item level |
| 7.28. | RFID cards, tickets and NFC |
| 7.29. | Animals |
| 7.30. | Logistics, Asset Tracking, Manufacturing |
| 7.31. | Follow governments |
| 7.32. | Active RFID and RTLS comes to the fore |
| 7.33. | Billion dollar niches, sometimes with little competition |
| 7.34. | New technology |
| 7.35. | Impediments to the growth of RFID markets |
| 7.36. | Indoor Positioning Systems and NFC |
| 7.37. | Real Time Locating Systems |
| 7.38. | RTLS takes off |
| 7.39. | More advanced forms |
| 7.40. | Market size 2013-2024 |
| 7.41. | The need |
| 7.42. | RTLS is mainly about healthcare |
| 7.43. | RTLS mainly gets used in the USA |
| 7.44. | IPS and RTLS mainly gets developed and made in the USA |
| 7.45. | The link between IPS and RTLS |
| 7.46. | Commonality of interest is only just beginning |
| 7.47. | IPS and RTLS are almost all about large buildings |
| 7.48. | Ranking of frequencies by popularity |
| 7.49. | ZigBee |
| 7.50. | The unique attraction of WiFi |
| 7.51. | Basic measuring principle - relative popularity |
| 8. | KEY INTERVIEWS IN 2013 |
| 8.1. | Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc, USA |
| 8.2. | MeaWallet, Norway |
| 8.3. | Nissin, Czech Republic |
| 8.4. | RBR, UK |
| 8.5. | Smart-TEC, Germany |
| 8.6. | Tag & Play, France |
| 8.7. | Ticketmobile, Norway |
| 8.8. | Interview in Japan |
| APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY | |
| IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS | |
| IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
Report Statistics
| Pages | 222 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 33 |
| Figures | 84 |
| Forecasts to | 2024 |
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