Thermal Management For Data Centers 2026-2036: Technologies, Markets, and Opportunities

With the increasing demand for high-performance computing in sectors like AI, cloud computing, and crypto mining, the thermal design power (TDP) of chips has risen significantly over the past 16 years. Nivida's B300 GPU, released in early 2025, has already demonstrated a TDP of 1400W with its NV rack demanding a total power of 140kW. With the roadmap released by Nvidia on its next-generation Rubin chip and similar upcoming competitors such as MI400, IDTechEx believes we will soon see chips with TDP over 1500kW. This upward trend in TDP has propelled a need for more efficient thermal management systems at both the micro (inside semiconductor packaging, on-chip, and on-server) and macro (server rack and facility) levels. In recent years, leading data center hyperscalers and colocators have collaborated with various cooling component suppliers, server ODMs (original design manufacturers), system integrators, and fabless designers, to launch innovative pilot projects and commercialize ready-to-use cooling solutions, aiming to enhance cooling performance and meet sustainability targets by adopting more efficient cooling solutions.

 

IDTechEx's report, "Thermal Management for Data Centers 2026-2036" covers a granular market forecast of data center cooling technologies segmented cooling technology (e.g., single-phase direct-to-chip (D2C), two-phase D2C, single-phase immersion, and two-phase immersion). The report conducts in-depth technical and commercial of essential components for liquid cooling, along with a breakdown of the cooling value chain, technological barriers of different cooling methods, cost analysis of players in different value chain positions, value chain consolidation potentials, and roadmap for the future cooling strategy.

 

In addition to technical analysis, a comprehensive commercial landscape, such as, data center cooling value chain, partnerships between players across the value chain, a summary of liquid cooling suppliers for leading players, and competitive landscape analysis has also been analyzed.

 

The report delivers an in-depth volume and market size forecast for liquid cooling, categorized by components including piping/valves/monitoring, CDUs for immersion, immersion coolant, immersion tanks, heat sinks, 3D vapor chambers, CDUs for D2C, sidecar, rear door heat exchanger (RDHx), fans, quick disconnects, manifolds, and cold plate systems (including cold plates, hoses, pipes, and fluid distribution networks within servers). It also offers a detailed forecast for immersion cooling, segmented by immersion tanks, immersion coolant, CDUs, and related piping, valves, and monitoring systems. Additionally, the forecast is further divided by single-phase and two-phase cooling technologies.

 

The report also provides a 10-year outlook on the use of thermal interface materials (TIM) for data center components, including TIM2s and TIM1s/TIM1.5s for advanced processors. Moreover, it includes a forecast of liquid cooling adoption, differentiating between AI and non-AI applications, to highlight the industries expected to present the most significant opportunities.

 

Data center cooling methods can be broadly categorized into air cooling and liquid cooling, depending on the cooling medium employed. Air cooling relies on air conditioning and/or fans, utilizing convection to dissipate heat from the servers. It has been widely adopted due to its long and successful track record. However, the low specific heat of air makes it challenging to meet the increasing cooling capacity requirements. Additionally, as data center users strive to maximize rack space utilization by densely packing servers (typically 1U servers), the air gaps between servers become narrower, which further reduces the efficiency of air cooling.

 

Liquid cooling, on the other hand, takes advantage of the higher specific heat of liquid to achieve superior cooling performance. Depending on the which components the fluids contact, liquid cooling can be classified into direct-to-chip/cold plate cooling, spray cooling, and immersion cooling. Direct-to-chip cooling involves mounting a cold plate with coolant fluid directly on top of heat sources such as GPUs, with a thermal interface material (TIM) applied in between. Cold plate cooling (including both single-phase and two-phase cold plates) can achieve a partial power use effectiveness (pPUE) ranging from 1.02 to 1.20, depending on the specific configuration.

 

An emerging alternative is immersion cooling where the servers are fully submerged in coolant fluids, enabling direct contact between the heat sources and the coolant, thereby achieving the best cooling performance with the lowest pPUE of 1.01. However, its widespread adoption is still limited due to challenges such as high upfront costs (in terms of US$/Watt), maintenance, and complexities of retrofitting the server boards. Nevertheless, immersion cooling holds potential for long-term energy savings thanks to their efficient thermal dissipation, which is not only economically beneficial given the current context of energy crisis but also helps the large companies to achieve their sustainability goals in the long run.

 

IDTechEx's comparative analysis of the 10-year total cost of ownership (TCO) between D2C cooling, 1-PIC and 2-PIC immersion across four regions reveals that over the course of 10 years, D2C on average has a 13% lower TCO than 1-PIC immersion and 9.4% lower than 2-PIC immersion, subject to the assumptions listed in the report. This report also highlights strategic collaborations and pilot projects between data center end-users, server OEMs, and immersion cooling vendors, as well as other barriers hindering the widespread adoption of immersion cooling. Market adoption (hardware units) and revenue forecasts are provided for air, cold-plate, and immersion cooling through to 2036.

 

Liquid cooling can also be classified into single-phase and two-phase cooling. Two-phase cooling generally exhibits greater effectiveness, but it also presents challenges such as regulations regarding two-phase immersion refrigerant based on perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), mechanical strength requirements for fluid containers to withstand increased pressure during phase changes, fluid loss due to vaporization, pressure drop with increasing flow rate, and high maintenance complexities and costs. The fundamental operating principles of single- and two-phase cooling is different where single-phase cooling relies on the dissipating the heat through convection whereas two-phase coolant primarily rely on dissipating the heat through the latent heat during the phase change. This report provides an analysis of different liquid cooling vendors, coolant fluid suppliers, and data center end-users, offering insights into the opportunities and threats associated with single-phase and two-phase direct-to-chip/cold plate and immersion cooling.

 

As 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies advance, there is a growing need for high-performance TIM1 materials in advanced semiconductor packaging, along with potential microfluidic cooling solutions. IDTechEx's report, "Thermal Management for Data Centers 2026-2036" provides an analysis of TIM1 materials for advanced semiconductor packaging and forecasts its market size from 2026 to 2036.

 

IDTechEx anticipates rapid growth in the adoption of liquid cooling, driven by factors such as the increasing power of data centers, the rise of hyperscale data centers, the availability of ready-to-use liquid cooling solutions, high flexibility and ability to retrofit, and the market trends driven by large players such as Nvidia. Specifically, cold plate cooling is expected to experience the largest growth due to its cost effectiveness and compatibility with existing air-cooled data centers, eliminating the need for extensive retrofitting to accommodate immersion cooling solutions.

 

In line with these projections, this report offers a detailed 10-year revenue forecast for hardware related to liquid cooling in data centers segmented AI and non-AI applications. Within non-AI applications, IDTechEx also splits the forecasts of cold plate cooling by server rack power.

 

With greater adoption of liquid cooling, new opportunities are emerging, leading to strengthened collaborations among companies involved in the data center cooling supply chain. Component suppliers such as coolant distribution units (CDUs) vendors, pump vendors, and coolant fluid suppliers are expected benefit from the increased adoption of liquid cooling. CDUs and pumps are critical components for controlling the flow rate in liquid cooling systems. Factors such as pressure drop need to be carefully considered. This report introduces various commercial in-rack and in-row CDUs, accompanied by a comprehensive comparison of coolant fluids based on their dynamic viscosity, density, specific heat, thermal conductivity, as well as required pipe length and pipe diameter.

 

One of the emerging trends in vertical integration is seen in the data center cooling value chain, which is intricate and extensive. Although many liquid cooling solution suppliers advocate for increased collaboration across the value chain, the current landscape remains fragmented and chaotic, requiring extensive work from system integrations to integrate every component together into a data center. IDTechEx has identified potential opportunities for market consolidation, with server OEMs beginning to offer comprehensive rack-level cooling solutions. These solutions encompass various components, including cold plates on servers, server racks, and essential parts such as manifolds, CDUs, and QDs. IDTechEx has also summarizes the liquid cooling component supply chain, with leading players, their capacity, and collaboration across companies in the value chain.

 

This report provides critical market intelligence on data center cooling technologies across multiple solution categories. This includes:

 

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