Baterías avanzadas de iones de litio 2025-2035: tecnologías, actores, mercados, previsiones

The global market for Li-ion battery cells alone is forecast to exceed US$400 billion by 2035, driven primarily by demand for battery electric cars and vehicles. Improvements to battery performance and cost are required to ensure widespread deployment of electric vehicles and to enable longer runtime and functionality of electronic devices and tools, leading to strong competition in the development of next-generation Li-ion technologies. This report provides in-depth analysis, trends and developments in advanced and next-generation Li-ion cell materials and designs, including silicon anodes, Li-metal anodes, cathode material (e.g. LMFP, Li-Mn-rich, sulfur) and synthesis innovations, and an introduction to solid-state battery developments, amongst other areas of development. Details of the key players and start-ups in each technology space are outlined and addressable markets and forecasts are provided for silicon, Li-metal, and cathode material shares.

 

 

Historically driven by demand for consumer electronic devices, the EV and stationary storage markets have become increasingly important. While numerous battery and energy storage options are becoming available for the stationary energy storage market, the high energy density requirements of electronic and portable devices, and electric cars and vehicles, ensures that Li-ion batteries will remain the dominant battery chemistry. However, improvements are still sought after. For consumer and portable devices, longer run-times and faster charging capabilities are needed to keep up with increasing computing power and to offer greater functionality in the wake of AI enabled services and devices. For the potentially lucrative EV market, longer ranges, shorter charging times, and of course lower costs and prices are still key to widespread adoption. The battery electric car market is a key target for many battery technology developments, offering the opportunity to supply a market where battery demand is forecast to grow beyond 2600 GWh by 2030, despite short-term uncertainties in the market. Certainly, the development of advanced and next-generation Li-ion technologies will be critical to various sectors, as well as for battery companies aiming to succeed or maintain their place in the market.

 

 

New anode materials offer the chance of significantly improved battery performance, particularly energy density and fast charge capability. Two of the most exciting material developments to Li-ion are the development and adoption of silicon anodes and Li-metal anodes, the latter often but not always in conjunction with solid-electrolytes. The excitement stems primarily from the possibility of these anode materials significantly improving energy density, where improvements of up to 50% over current state-of-the-art Li-ion cells are feasible. Enhancements to rate capability, safety, environmental profile, and even cost, are also being highlighted by silicon anode developers in particular. However, shifting from the use of silicon oxides as an additive to higher weight percentages, and the use of lithium-metal anodes have posed serious problems to battery cycle life and longevity, which has delayed and limited commercial adoption so far. This report covers and analyzes the solutions being developed and provides coverage of the various companies starting to commercialise their high energy anode materials and designs. The report also provides coverage of high-rate anode materials based on metal oxides such as lithium titanate and niobium oxides.

 

While new cathode materials are expected to provide improvements over incumbents and direct competitors, they are unlikely to push the performance envelope of Li-ion batteries significantly. Instead, cathode development can help to optimise and minimise the trade-off inherent in deploying one chemistry over another. Material costs and supply chain concerns also play a critical role in the development of next-generation cathodes materials. For example, companies continue to push nickel content in NMC cathodes to maximise performance and reduce cobalt reliance, LMFP cathodes offer a higher energy density than LFP whilst maintaining a similar cost profile, while Li-Mn-rich cathodes can provide similar energy densities to NMC materials whilst reducing cobalt and nickel content. Alternative methods of producing cathode active materials are also under development to reduce waste production, emissions and importantly, costs. IDTechEx's report provides an appraisal of the various next-generation Li-ion cathode materials, highlighting their respective strengths and weaknesses and the value proposition they offer, or could offer, to specific applications and markets.

 

Lithium-sulfur batteries represent a greater departure from conventional Li-ion technology with the intercalation cathode replaced with conversion-type sulfur and with the anode typically comprising lithium-metal. The high capacity and low density of sulfur, and lithium, means companies developing Li-S batteries have demonstrated gravimetric energy densities as high as 450 Wh/kg - approximately 50% higher than state-of-the-art Li-ion. The use of low-cost and widely available sulfur, in place of materials such as nickel and cobalt, also offers the potential for cost and supply chain benefits. However, cell-design specifics and manufacturing scale are critical for achieving these cost benefits, while Li-S batteries typically suffer from poor cycle life and rate capability, highlighting a number of challenges that need to be overcome prior to commercialization.

 

Developments to cell and battery pack design can play a similarly important role in ongoing performance gains. At the cell level, electrode structure, current collector design, electrolyte additives and formulations, and the use of additives such as carbon nanotubes will continue to play a role in maximising Li-ion performance across various applications. At the pack level, cell-to-pack designs are becoming increasingly popular for electric cars as a means to optimise energy density and are being developed by players such as BYD, CATL, and Tesla, amongst others. More innovative battery management systems and analytics also represents a key route to battery improvement, offering one of only a few ways to improve performance characteristics including energy density, rate capability, lifetime, and safety simultaneously - a feat that is notoriously difficult to achieve.

 

Current Li-ion materials processing and cell manufacturing is dominated by Asia and China. While the US and Europe in particular are now looking to develop and nurture their own battery supply chains, one route to capturing and domesticating value could be to lead the way in innovation and next-generation technology development. Here, the US and Europe fare slightly better. Looking at start-up companies by geography, as a proxy for innovation, and the US comes out as a leader in next generation technology. Europe is also home to a growing battery industry and start-up landscape, though it needs to be noted that development in Asia is likely under-represented given the stronger presence of major battery manufacturers and materials companies. The report is complemented with a selection of company profiles covering company involvement across various areas of battery technology and innovation.

 

 

 

IDTechEx's report provides an appraisal of the various next-generation Li-ion technologies being developed and commercialised. This report covers and analyzes many of the key technological advancements in advanced and next-generation Li-ion batteries, including silicon and lithium-metal anodes, manganese-rich cathodes, ultra-high nickel NMC, LMFP, lithium-sulfur batteries, as well as optimised cell and battery designs. Details on the key players and start-ups in each technology are outlined and addressable markets and forecasts are provided for next-generation anode and cathode materials.

 

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