Vehículos comerciales ligeros eléctricos 2025-2045: mercados, actores, pronósticos

IDTechEx's report "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" provides a deep and granular analysis of the ever-growing electric light commercial vehicle (eLCV) industry. IDTechEx has assembled the most comprehensive database of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell LCVs available, with this report revealing trends in market size and sales, battery technology, vehicle performance, and more.

 

The eLCV market may not be as developed as that of electric cars, but increasing demand for zero-emission mobility from governments and the public, combined with electrification progress from OEMs and continuing maturation of battery technology, have created substantial growth in the eLCV industry to date. IDTechEx's new report forecasts a continuation in this growth, with the global eLCV market set to reach over 11 million unit sales by 2045.

 

 

Much of the eLCV market's growth to date has been driven by government regulation and the increasing desire to roll out zero-emission last mile logistics solutions for road freight and e-commerce. This has led to roughly 5% of all LCV sales in 2023 being EVs - greater than any other class of commercial vehicles except buses. However, the spread of eLCVs globally has been far from equal. Europe and China, driven by tighter emissions restrictions and more lucrative purchase grants for eLCVs, have both seen rapid market expansion and are approaching 10% EV penetration. Meanwhile, the US lags far behind on electrification legislation and benefits from lower fossil fuel prices to the detriment of its eLCV market.

 

Despite this, the new IDTechEx report expects the regulatory landscape around eLCV emissions will become even more restrictive over the next two decades, as governments stretch to meet their Paris Agreement goals and other sustainability initiatives. These will come in the form of low-emission and zero-emission zones as well as outright bans on the sale of fossil fuel LCVs. Most notably, the EU has already passed such a ban for 2035, while the UK has considered an earlier 2030 date and China is expected to impose a ban too. Even the usually sluggish US has introduced new decarbonization plans specifically for LCVs, including revamped subsidy programs. IDTechEx expects that such developments will provide a major boost to the industry as a whole and incentivize uptake of EV technology for LCV fleets. For more information on how government intervention will shape the future of the eLCV market, see the full "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" report.

 

 

While government regulation will be a potent tool in driving uptake of eLCVs, the vehicles themselves also have to be able to meet the needs of fleet operators around the world. Fleets, and the types of vehicles they use, vary widely around the world in size, capacity, and range depending on the needs of each region's market. eLCVs need to not only match the performance of existing diesel LCVs on all these metrics but also do so affordably.

 

When it comes to performance, IDTechEx's "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" report demonstrates that eLCV technology is already sufficiently developed to meet the performance requirements of fleets. This is especially true for range considerations, where eLCVs can complete multiple days' driving distance with ease on a single charge. Maturation of the core technology has also led to all major LCV OEMs now producing EV versions of their most popular models. This report details over 100 eLCV models from all key OEMs (including Renault, Ford, Hyundai, Geely, and more), which have been analyzed to unearth trends in eLCV design, batteries, and motors across global markets.

 

The cost of an eLCV will soon be favorable over a diesel LCV too. eLCVs already benefit from lower operating costs (from energy and maintenance) than a combustion engine alternative, but in the present day market they suffer from high capital cost and poor resale value, leading to higher total costs of ownership (TCO). However, continued development of vehicle and battery technology and economies of scale from increased production will help bring down the upfront cost of eLCVs. At the same time, governments are offering assistance in the form of purchase grants while increasingly stringent emissions regulation makes it more costly to own a combustion LCV.

 

With all these factors, IDTechEx expects diesel and electric LCVs will achieve upfront cost parity and also equalize in resale value, allowing the eLCV to generate TCO savings and providing a market driver for adoption.

 

Hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) LCVs provide the potential for greater range and faster refueling than what a battery-electric (BEV) model could promise. But for an FCEV to truly be a zero-emission solution, it must utilize green hydrogen - currently in short supply and far more expensive to use in LCVs than electricity. Hydrogen also suffers from a lack of adequate production and transport infrastructure in the short-term, though this will be remedied with time. IDTechEx's report delves into the key challenges faced by hydrogen LCVs, including considerations of their value proposition to fleets as compared to BEVs.

 

This report provides critical market intelligence into the electric LCV market, including:

 

Major market drivers for electrification

 

Detailed market sizing and analysis

 

Technology trends

 

Market Forecasts

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