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Plant-based and Cultured Meat 2020-2030

Technologies, markets and forecasts in novel meat replacements

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In its current form, the meat industry is unsustainable. It is an inefficient way to produce food that may soon be unable to adequately feed the growing global population, which could reach 10 billion by the year 2050. Meat production is damaging to the environment too, contributing to climate change, dwindling water supplies and environmental pollution. Despite this, global meat consumption is still growing and people are eating more meat than ever. It's unlikely the global population will turn vegan. Realistic and affordable replacements for meat will be necessary before a significant shift away from the conventional meat industry is likely to happen. Could advances in agtech be the answer?
Artificial meat products created from plant proteins and through culture of animal cells are fast-growing areas that have generated much excitement over the last few years, with sales of plant-based meat products skyrocketing and investments surging. In its first three months after going public, Beyond Meat's share price increased by 500%, with investors and consumers inspired by its realistic meat-like products. Beyond Meat's and Impossible Foods' products are now available in fast food restaurants throughout the USA. In a recent KFC trial release in Atlanta, Beyond Meat's fried chicken analogues sold out in less than 5 hours. When Burger King released the Impossible Whopper in St. Louis, Missouri in April 2019, sales outperformed the company's national average by 18.5%, despite St. Louis being better known for barbecue than veganism. The reason for this surge in sales? Nowadays, plant-based meat is not just for vegetarians and vegans. Better product quality, perceptions of plant-based meat as a healthy alternative and megatrends towards conscious consumption are causing meat eaters to buy more and more plant-based meat alternatives.
Unlike plant-based meat analogues such as the Impossible Burger, cellular agriculture has the potential to produce meat products identical to those produced through animal slaughter far more efficiently at a fraction of the environmental cost. Dutch start-up Mosa Meat claims that a single cell sample can create up to 10,000 kg of cultured meat, with the production process requiring 99% less land and 96% less water than traditional livestock agriculture. Cultured cells double in number every few days, meaning that cultured meat could also be produced far quicker than conventional meat - Israeli start-up Aleph Farms claims that it can produce a batch of cultured steaks within three weeks, a much shorter timeframe than the two years it takes to grow a cow. Investors are optimistic about cultured meat (also known as "cell-based meat" or "clean meat"). Cultured meat start-ups have raised over $125 million since 2015 and investment grew by 85% between 2017 and 2018. High profile backers include Bill Gates, Richard Branson and Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who helped fund the first synthetic meat burger grown in 2013.
The cultured meat industry is growing rapidly
Despite the current optimism, both industries still have a long way to go before they can threaten the global meat industry. Despite rapid growth, plant-based meat still has less than 1% market share of the US meat industry and struggles to replicate meat products beyond unstructured products such as burgers, nuggets and ground beef. Plant-based meat producers have struggled with scale up and price parity with meat remains out of reach.
Cultured meat also faces some serious challenges with cost reduction, scale-up and regulatory approval, with no cultured meat product having yet reached the market. Despite the major the challenges the industry is facing, some cultured meat start-ups remain optimistic. Josh Tetrick, CEO of JUST, has claimed that the company's cell-based chicken nuggets have been ready for market since 2018, despite still costing around $50 per nugget, and could be released as early as late 2019, pending regulatory approval. Other companies are more conservative. Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats, has emphasised the importance of taking time to get the release right, rather than risking a PR disaster similar to that seen with genetically-modified products. Consumers are notoriously sceptical of biotechnology, especially within food, and a "frankenfoods" label could take decades to shake off.
This report introduces both plant-based meat substitutes and cultured meat products. It provides an in-depth discussion of the cost and technical considerations involved in producing either product, as well as insight into consumer attitudes, market drivers and restraints and an exploration of the futures of both industries. Note - "plant-based meat" refers specifically to plant-based meat analogues, i.e. plant-based substitutes designed to taste exactly like meat, rather than tofu or conventional veggie burgers.
Key questions answered in this report
• Why is the global meat industry unsustainable?
• How are plant-based and cultured meat made?
• Will plant-based meat live up to the hype?
• When will cultured meat products be on the market?
• What are the main technological hurdles in cultured meat development?
• Will consumers eat a cultured meat product?
• Who are the main players in either field?
• Where are the opportunities in the ecosystems of plant-based and cultured meat?
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Table of Contents
1.1.Report overview
1.2.The current meat industry is unsustainable
1.3.Plant-based meat
1.4.How plant-based meat is made
1.5.The explosion in plant-based meat: why now?
1.6.Plant-based meat key players: top ten brands in retail
1.7.Plant-based alternatives key players: top ten start-ups by funding
1.8.US plant-based meat market forecast
1.9.Global forecast: plant-based meat
1.10.Cultured (cell-based) meat
1.11.How is cultured meat made?
1.12.Challenges facing the cultured meat industry
1.13.The cultured meat industry is growing rapidly
1.14.US cultured meat forecast
1.15.Global forecast: cultured meat
2.1.An overview of the meat industry
2.1.1.The meat industry - an overview
2.1.2.The American meat industry - an overview
2.1.3.Meat production across the world
2.1.4.Demand in the developed world has stagnated
2.1.5.Demand in the developing world is growing
2.1.6.Chicken is taking the lead
2.1.7.An overview of the seafood industry
2.2.Sustainability issues in the meat industry
2.2.1.The challenge of feeding a growing population
2.2.2.Meat is an inefficient source of nutrition
2.2.3.The environmental impact of animal agriculture
2.2.4.Beef has the highest environmental impact
2.2.5.Public health risks
2.2.6.The problem with seafood
2.3.An introduction to plant-based and cultured meat
2.3.1.The world is unlikely to become vegetarian
2.3.2.Plant-based meat
2.3.3.Cultured (cell-based) meat
2.3.4.Hybrid products - a happy medium?
3.1.Chapter overview
3.2.The structure of meat
3.3.Myocytes or myotubes
3.4.Connective tissue - fibroblasts and chondrocytes
3.6.The importance of fat in meat
3.7.The extracellular matrix (ECM)
3.8.Texture in meat
3.9.The taste of meat
3.10.The nutritional profile of meat
3.11.Nutrient profiles of animal and plant-based proteins
4.1.1.Could plant-based meat be the answer?
4.1.2.A definition of plant-based meat
4.1.3.What is plant-based meat?
4.1.4.A brief history of meat substitutes
4.1.5.The explosion in plant-based meat: why now?
4.1.6.The growing market for meat substitutes
4.1.7.Plant-based meat: not just for vegetarians
4.1.8.Industry interest in plant-based meat is growing
4.1.9.Major food companies are launching competing brands
4.1.10.Fast food has been a major driver for plant-based meat
4.1.11.The importance of store placement
4.1.12.Health is a major driver of consumer behaviour
4.1.13.Is plant-based meat healthy?
4.1.14.Taste and texture are key
4.1.15.Is plant-based meat a fad?
4.1.16.Soy is unpopular
4.1.17.Plant-based meat is expensive
4.1.18.Price parity with meat is challenging
4.1.19.The price of plant-based meat
4.1.20.SWOT analysis for novel vegan meat substitutes
4.2.Making plant-based meat
4.2.1.How plant-based meat is made
4.2.2.The challenge of replicating meat protein
4.2.3.Texture in meat - challenges of replicating with plants
4.2.4.How plant-based meat is made
4.2.5.The ecosystem around plant-based meat
4.2.6.Thermoplastic protein extrusion
4.2.7.Extrusion of plant-based proteins
4.2.8.Single-screw and twin-screw extruders
4.2.9.Factors in extrusion
4.2.10.High moisture extrusion
4.2.11.Process improvements in extrusion
4.2.12.Extrusion is not the only method: power heating
4.2.13.Plant-based meat is not yet an agricultural focus
4.2.14.Plant-based meat only uses a few proteins
4.2.15.Soy protein
4.2.16.Pea protein
4.2.17.Wheat protein
4.3.Emerging technologies and technological hurdles
4.3.1.Fermentation case study: soy haemoglobin
4.3.2.Gene editing technology and plant-based meat
4.3.3.What is CRISPR?
4.3.4.Artificial intelligence in vegan meat substitutes bioprinting and plant-based meat
4.4.Industry overview
4.4.1.Plant-based products form a $4.5 billion market
4.4.2.Plant-based meat key players: top ten brands in retail
4.4.3.Plant-based alternatives key players: top ten start-ups by funding
4.4.4.Plant-based milk: top ten brands in retail
4.4.5.Impossible Foods
5.1.1.Could cultured meat be the answer?
5.1.2.Interest in cultured meat is growing
5.1.3.Will people eat a cultured burger?
5.1.4.Factors impacting consumer acceptance
5.1.5.Consumer concerns around cultured meat
5.1.6.Consumer acceptance - geographical considerations
5.1.7.Cultured meat and religious restrictions
5.1.8.The environmental impact of cultured meat
5.1.9.Which products will be available first?
5.1.10.When will these products be available?
5.1.11.Challenges facing the cultured meat industry
5.1.12.SWOT analysis for cultured meat
5.2.Making cultured meat
5.2.1.How is cultured meat made?
5.2.2.The four main considerations in cultured meat
5.2.3.Choosing the right starter cells
5.2.4.Induced pluripotent stem cells
5.2.5.Myosatellite cells
5.2.7.Growth medium
5.2.8.The problem with growth medium
5.2.9.Why is growth medium so expensive?
5.2.10.What's in basal medium?
5.2.11.How cheap could growth medium be in the future?
5.2.12.The seven scenarios for growth medium cost reduction
5.2.13.Costs under the seven scenarios
5.2.14.Are these scenarios realistic?
5.2.15.Scaffolds and structures
5.2.16.Considerations in scaffolds
5.2.18.A cell culture bioreactor must meet these demands
5.2.19.Comparison between bioreactors
5.2.20.Major types of dynamic bioreactor
5.2.21.Packed/fixed bed bioreactors
5.2.22.Packed bed bioreactors - the Pall iCELLis bioreactor
5.2.23.Fluidised bed bioreactors
5.2.24.Hollow fibre bioreactors
5.2.25.Disposable bag bioreactors (DBBs)
5.2.26.A comparison of single use bioreactors
5.2.27.Cell seeding in bioreactors
5.2.28.Bioreactor design - lessons from other industries
5.2.29.Challenges of scale up
5.2.30.Challenges of scale up: the lack of hardware
5.2.31.Challenges of scale up: antibiotics
5.2.32.Design considerations in a scaled up plant
5.2.33.Bioreactor design considerations with scale
5.2.34.Cost considerations of scale up - growth media
5.2.35.Growth medium cost scenarios with different bioreactors
5.2.36.A scaled up cultured meat facility - BlueNalu
5.2.37.BlueNalu's scaled up facility design
5.2.38.Safety concerns in cultured meat
5.2.39.Could genetic engineering help?
5.2.40.The unique benefits and challenges of cultured seafood
5.3.Industry overview
5.3.1.Cultured meat: industry overview
5.3.2.The cultured meat industry is growing rapidly
5.3.3.Cultured meat: what animal cells are companies using?
5.3.4.Geographical distribution of cultured meat companies
5.3.5.IP summary
5.3.6.IP summary: Memphis Meats
5.3.7.IP summary: JUST
5.3.8.IP summary: Modern Meadow
5.3.9.IP summary: Integriculture
5.3.10.IP summary: patent applications
5.3.11.The need for collaboration in the industry
5.3.13.Memphis Meats
5.3.14.Future Meat Technologies
5.3.15.Mosa Meat
5.3.17.Aleph Farms
5.3.18.Shiok Meats
5.3.19.Finless Foods
5.3.20.Cubiq Foods
5.3.22.Higher Steaks
5.3.23.BioTech Foods
6.1.1.What is fermentation?
6.1.2.Production of proteins at scale through fermentation
6.2.Insect protein
6.2.1.Industry overview
6.2.2.Why eat insects?
6.2.3.How are insects used in food?
6.2.4.Environmental benefits of using insects for food
6.2.5.Will consumers eat insects?
7.1.Chapter overview
7.2.EU regulations - Novel Food Regulation
7.3.EU Novel Food Regulations: process overview
7.4.EU regulations: labelling requirements
7.5.EU labelling regulations and plant-based meat
7.6.EU labelling regulations and cultured meat
7.7.EU regulations: GMOs and GMP guidelines
7.8.US regulations: cultured meat
7.9.FDA and USDA joint agreement on cultured meat
7.10.Labelling regulations in the USA
7.11.US standards of identity
7.12.The importance of labelling
7.13.The Alliance for Meat, Poultry and Seafood Innovation
7.14.Cultured meat: similarities and differences between EU and US regulations
7.15.Will cultured meat be approved first in Asia?
8.1.1.Investments in plant-based alternatives
8.1.2.Investments in cultured meat
8.1.3.Investments in cultured meat are growing
8.1.4.There is much more money in plant-based meat
8.1.5.The pros and cons of rapid investment
8.1.6.Is Beyond Meat's growth sustainable?
8.1.7.Major food companies are acting
8.1.8.Mergers and acquisitions in plant-based alternatives
8.2.US forecasts
8.2.1.Plant-based milk as a model for plant-based meat
8.2.2.Plant-based meat substitutes by category
8.2.3.Half of chicken in the US is unstructured
8.2.4.US unstructured meat consumption
8.2.5.US unstructured meat market forecast
8.2.6.US plant-based meat market forecast
8.2.7.US cultured meat forecast
8.3.Global forecasts
8.3.1.China's problem with meat consumption
8.3.2.China and meat alternatives
8.3.3.Plant-based meat forecast: China
8.3.4.Europe and meat alternatives
8.3.5.Plant-based meat forecast: Europe
8.3.6.Cultured meat forecast: China and Europe
8.3.7.Global forecast: plant-based meat
8.3.8.Global forecast: cultured meat
9.1.US unstructured meat consumption*
9.2.US unstructured meat market forecast*
9.3.US plant-based meat market forecast
9.4.US cultured meat forecast
9.5.Plant-based meat forecast: Europe
9.6.Cultured meat forecast: China and Europe
9.7.Global forecast: plant-based meat
9.8.Global forecast: cultured meat
9.9.List of abbreviations

Report Statistics

Slides 286
Forecasts to 2030

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