Les marchés indiens des véhicules électriques représenteront 35 milliards de dollars en 2041

Véhicules électriques en Inde 2021-2041

Deux-roues électriques, trois-roues électriques, voitures électriques et bus électriques en Inde

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Despite ranking as the fifth largest auto market in the world (behind the US, China, EU + UK + EFTA & Japan), India's massive population of 1.3 billion people means it actually has one of the lowest cars in-use per capita. In contrast, over the past decade India has overtaken China to become the world's largest motorcycle market, selling roughly 17 million in fiscal year 2020 in a global market of 57 million. When we hear ambitious electrification targets from countries like India, it not the electrification of cars, but that of more affordable two-wheelers and micro-mobility which is the primary focus.
Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
What's driving electrification in India? Fundamentally, India is highly dependent on oil imports and has seven of the world's top ten most polluted cities. Roughly 70% of pollution comes from vehicle emissions, and 81% of vehicle sales were two-wheelers in FY20. Energy independence and emissions reduction are therefore key underlying drivers for electrification. Since 2015, policy implemented to tackle these issues has been critical for uptake. In April 2019, the second phase of the national electric vehicle purchase subsidy began (FAME-II), providing a pot of 100 billion rupees in a temporal policy lasting three years; of this, 86 billion rupees is available to drive uptake of an estimated 1.6 million electric vehicles, including 1.5 million electric two and three-wheelers. However, new requirements mean that lead-acid batteries and low-speed Li-ion electric two-wheelers (< 25kmph) have not qualified for FAME since October 1, 2018, causing disruption to market leaders that predominantly focussed on the low-speed markets, which are less price sensitive.
Three-wheelers are a small part of India's overall auto market, constituting less than 3% of vehicle sales. The market is predominantly made up of commercial vehicles known as auto rickshaws, serving as a cheaper alternative to a taxi car and holding more cargo and passenger space than a two-wheeler. Auto-rickshaws are used within cities for short distances, and not well suited for inter-city travel because they are slow and have open carriages. This also makes them a good candidate for electrification. Huge sales numbers for electric three-wheelers have been reported to IDTechEx, totalling over 2.5 million in FY20: this is over four times the size of our current estimate for the electric two-wheeler market. Unfortunately, this is undermined by data quality issues as the sector is disorganised and not well tracked; figures emerging for FY21 are much lower than previous estimates.
Bus sales in India are dominated by a small number of local companies: combined, Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors command over 80% of the market. Electric buses generate 27% more revenue and 82% more profits than diesel buses per day (Indian Institute of Science) and as much as 25 tonnes of CO2 emissions can be cut every year for every diesel bus replaced by an electric bus. India has conducted a number of small pilots in various cities with electric buses, but the market is still at a very nascent stage. Big commitments from governments in 2019, such as the 7000 buses mandated by the FAME-II purchase subsidy are a good start, but have not yet resulted in a significant increase in sales, with only 600 electric buses sold for FY20.
The report further looks at the core technologies enabling electrification in India. There is a general transition away from lead-acid batteries, which currently dominate for low cost but are highly toxic and not disposed of safely. With the transition to Li-ion comes challenges in countries like India because of the high temperatures of 45 degrees C in the summer, and the culture to leave vehicles parked out in the hot sun when charging or residing at home or work. Market leaders are working with battery suppliers to design chemistries to help solve this issue. The report also addresses electric traction motor technologies; here solutions vary dramatically from custom, innovative permanent magnet synchronous motors to off the shelf brushless DC solutions made and imported from China.
Summary of forecasts and data provided in this report:
  • Electric two-wheeler unit sales by power class 2015- 2041
  • Electric two-wheeler battery demand (GWh) by power class 2015- 2041
  • Electric two-wheeler battery demand (GWh) by Lead-acid / Li-ion split 2015- 2041
  • Electric two-wheeler market size ($ billion) by power class 2015- 2041
  • Market shares of electric two-wheeler companies in India
  • Electric three-wheeler / electric rickshaw unit sales, battery demand & market size 2015-2041
  • Electric car unit sales, battery demand & market size 2015-2041
  • Electric bus unit sales, battery demand & market size 2015- 2041
Power classes are < 4kW (electric scooters) and > 4kW (electric motorcycles).
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Table of Contents
1.1.The Importance of Electric Two-wheelers
1.2.Electric Vehicle Unit Sales in India 2015 - 2041
1.3.Electric Vehicle Battery Demand in India 2015 - 2041
1.4.Electric Vehicle Market Value in India 2015 - 2041
1.5.Electric Two-wheelers Power Classes
1.6.E2W by Power Class and Battery Type 2015 - 2041
1.7.Electric Three-wheelers
2.1.Electric Vehicle Terms
2.2.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.3.Electric Vehicle Characteristics
2.4.India: Transportation Diversity
2.5.Mobility Trends in India
2.6.The World's Largest Moto Market
2.7.Emissions Regulation
2.8.High Pollution and Oil Imports Drive Electrification
2.9.Electrification Drivers
2.10.Electrification Barriers
2.11.India: Flawed Electric Vehicle Policy
2.12.FAME in FY19: Low-speed Impact
2.13.Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
2.14.Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
2.15.Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
2.16.Electrification Target Confusion
2.17.Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
2.18.Gigafactories in India
2.19.List of EV Startups in India
3.1.Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
3.2.Electric Two-wheeler Voltage Characteristics
3.3.Hybrid Two-wheelers
3.4.Hybrid Two-wheelers: Historic Failures
3.5.Honda: PCX Hybrid Scooter
3.6.Electric Two-wheelers Over 4kW
3.7.No noise: good or bad?
3.8.Electric Motorcycle Performance
3.9.Incumbent Moto Market Shares FY20
3.10.India Moto Market Forecast
3.11.India: Historic E2W Market Growth
3.12.Electric OEM Market Shares
3.13.Rise of Li-ion in India
3.14.India Li-ion Battery Pack Chemistry & Price Forecast
3.15.Performance Parity
3.16.Hero Electric Models
3.17.Ather Energy
3.18.E-motion - Surge
3.19.22Motors - Flow
3.20.Harley Davidson Failure
3.21.Bajaj Auto Chetak
3.22.IDTechEx Portal Profiles
4.1.India's Three-wheeler Market
4.2.Electric Three-wheeler Sales 2015 - 2020
4.3.Data Sources
4.4.Electric Three-wheeler OEMs
4.5.Vikram Solar
4.6.Electric Three-wheeler Forecast
5.1.Bus Types
5.2.Bus OEMs in India
5.3.Electric Buses: Market History
5.4.Electric Bus Sales in India
5.5.Tata Motors Commentary
5.6.OEM Projects
5.7.Electric Bus Unit Cost and Battery Size
5.8.Electric Bus Market Forecasts 2017 - 2041
5.9.LCV Definition
5.10.Tata Motors Ace
5.11.Mahindra eSupro Cargo LCV
5.12.Mahindra and REE Electric LCV Partnership
5.13.Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept
5.14.Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T
6.1.The World's 5th Largest Car Market?
6.2.FAME Subsidy and Cars
6.3.Electric Car Sales in India 2014 - 2020
6.4.Private Cars Losing Importance
6.5.Electric Car Forecast 2015 - 2041
7.1.What is a Li-ion battery?
7.2.The Battery Trilemma
7.3.Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
7.4.More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
7.5.Cathode Performance Comparison
7.6.The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
7.7.The Reality of Silicon
7.8.Silicon: Incremental Steps
7.9.What is in a Cell?
7.10.Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
7.11.Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
7.12.Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
7.13.Electric Two-wheeler Cells
7.15.Euclion to supply battery packs to Hyundai by 2020?
8.1.Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
8.2.Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
8.3.BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
8.4.BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
8.5.Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
8.6.PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
8.7.PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
8.8.Permanent Magnet Assisted Reluctance (PMAR)
8.9.PMAR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
8.10.Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
8.11.Motor Efficiency Comparison
8.12.Magnet Price Increase Risk
8.13.Motorcycles Have Unique Requirements
8.14.Motor Technologies in Two-wheelers
8.15.Component developers for electric two wheelers
8.16.Electric Motorcycles
8.17.Magalec: electric motors for racing bikes
8.18.Electric Three Wheeler Motors
8.19.Electric Bus Motors
8.20.Overview of Electric Motor Market Share (2019)
9.1.Forecast Assumptions
9.2.Forecast Methodology
9.3.FAQ on the Forecasts
9.4.Electric Vehicle Unit Sales in India 2015 - 2041
9.5.Electric Vehicle Battery Demand in India 2015 - 2041
9.6.Electric Vehicle Market Value in India 2015 - 2041
9.7.E2W by Power Class and Battery Type 2015 - 2041
9.8.Unit & $ Billion Forecast Data by Region 2015 - 2041
9.9.Lead-acid & Li-ion GWh Forecast Data 2015 - 2041

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Slides 137
Forecasts to 2041
ISBN 9781913899264

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