Marchés des véhicules électriques hybrides complets 2021-2041: IDTechEx

Market value for hybrid electric vehicles to peak at $792 billion in 2027

Marchés des véhicules électriques hybrides complets 2021-2041

Marchés des véhicules électriques hybrides à haute tension (HEV). Voitures, autobus, camions et véhicules utilitaires légers. NiMH vs Li-ion et Moteur-Générateur. Marché au Japon, en Europe, aux États-Unis, en Chine et en Corée du Sud. Données historiques et prévisions pour 2021-2041

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Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have seen a significant growth in sales over recent years and the HEV market is set to increase in 2020 despite the implications of COVID-19 on the global automotive industry. These HEVs or "self-charging hybrids" (hybrids which do not plug-in but have electric-only driving modes), provide for the consumer that wants reduced fuel consumption and CO2 emissions but isn't completely convinced by the proposition of plug-in vehicles. This could be due to the increased cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), or the potential lack of charging capabilities at their residence. Either way, the HEV presents a good opportunity in the short term for these consumers.
The European car market is expected to see a significant drop in sales for 2020 due to COVID-19 related shutdowns. However, the HEV market is expected to continue its strong growth. Source: IDTechEx, Hybrid Electric Vehicle Market 2021-2041
This report from IDTechEx gives a granular breakdown of the HEV market in Japan, Europe, the US, China and South Korea. Cars, buses, trucks and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) are detailed along with their battery and motor-generator technologies. The report is highly data-driven: an extensive HEV car model database of over 80 HEV models sold between 2015-2019 was created by IDTechEx to determine trends in historic sales, battery capacity, motor-generator power and number, market share and market value. Historic sales data for each of the vehicle categories provides unique insight into the future: the report provides detailed forecasts for sales, battery demand, motor-generator demand and market value out to 2041 split by key geographical regions.
HEVs can also aid manufacturers: with CO2 emissions targets becoming stricter worldwide, sales of HEVs can serve to lower the overall CO2 output of a manufacturers' fleet and help to avoid the related fines. In fact, in Europe, the report finds several automotive manufacturers are not going to meet the emissions targets and will have to either purchase credits from other manufacturers or face large fines. The CO2 reduction benefits of HEVs are nowhere near that of BEV and PHEV drivetrains but the technology is more mature, making it a potential stop-gap to meet these targets in the short-term.
Japan has historically been the strongest market for HEVs with the likes of Toyota, Honda and Nissan all playing significant roles. However, it is expected that Europe will overtake Japan in 2020, even if the majority of HEV sales still come from Japanese manufacturers. Whilst it appears that Europe will remain the largest HEV market for some time, it is an inherently limited one. Several European countries have set out plans or regulations to ban the sales of new ICE vehicles in the 2030s. Several have not made their stance clear on HEVs and PHEVs, but some have. The UK for example is aiming to have no vehicles with combustion engines of any form being sold from 2030. Given that the EU is such a strong market for HEVs, this could drive the trend worldwide.
HEVs do not only have to contend with impending regulations, but also with competition from other drivetrain technologies. Of course, PHEVs present much better fuel consumption and CO2 emissions figures (at least under testing standards), but there is also a threat from the rise of 48V hybrid technology, for which some are promising 80% of HEV performance for 30% of the powertrain cost (see the IDTechEx report: 48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Cars: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041). All three could potentially be limited by future fossil fuel bans, but PHEVs are certainly looked upon more favourably and the 48V mild hybrids present an easier integration challenge to improve CO2 emissions and fuel economy quickly.
There are several factors that could potentially cause a massive growth of the HEV market but also a rapid decline. This report from IDTechEx considers extensive historic data, analysing trends and looks forwards at the potential for HEVs to help meet emissions targets before the fossil fuel bans are enacted across various regions. Forecasts for 2021-2041 are given for HEV cars, buses and trucks across the various quantities listed below, allowing for a deep-dive into the HEV market now and for the future.
Report Summary
Market assessments:
  • Trends in HEV battery chemistry and capacity
  • Trends in HEV motor-generator design, power and quantity
  • Key HEV car, bus, truck and LCV models: technical and sales performance
  • Regional breakdown into Japan, Europe, the US, China and South Korea for all of the above assessments.
Historic and Forecast lines: units, battery demand, motor-generator demand and market value (2015-2041):
  • HEV Cars
  • HEV Buses
  • HEV Trucks
  • Regional splits across Japan, Europe, US, China and South Korea for the above
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Table of Contents
1.1.HEV Car Manufacturer Market Share
1.2.European HEV Car Market
1.3.48V Full Hybrid Definition
1.4.Total Cost of Ownership of a HEV Car
1.5.HEV Global Car Sales Forecast
1.6.HEV Car Market Value
1.7.Global HEV Bus and Truck Market Value
1.8.Total On-Road HEV Sales Forecast
1.9.Total On-Road HEV Market Value Forecast
1.10.Summary and Outlook
2.1.Electric Vehicle Terms
2.2.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.3.Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
2.4.Hybrid Vehicle Definition
2.5.Self-Charging Hybrids
2.6.48V Full Hybrid Definition
2.7.Fossil Fuel Bans
2.7.1.Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
2.7.2.Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
2.7.3.Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
2.7.4.How Fossil Fuel Bans Impacts HEVs
3.1.Lead-acid Battery
3.2.Nickel Metal Hydride Battery (NiMH)
3.3.Lithium-ion Battery (Li-ion)
3.4.Toyota Prius Battery: NiMH vs Li-ion
3.5.NiMH Replacement Cost
3.6.Summary of Hybrid Battery Technology
3.7.Global HEV Battery Trends
4.1.Hybrid Synergy Drive/ Toyota Hybrid System
4.3.Honda Sport Hybrid Systems
4.4.Honda's 2 Motor Hybrid System
4.5.Nissan Note e-POWER
4.6.Hyundai Sonata Hybrid
4.7.Toyota Prius Drive Motor: 2004-2010
4.8.Toyota Prius Drive Motor: 2004-2017
4.9.Comparison of Hybrid MGs
4.10.Global HEV Car Motor/Generator Trends
5.1.HEV Car History and Forecast
5.2.HEV Car Models
5.3.Toyota Prius
5.4.Toyota C-HR
5.5.Honda Accord Hybrid
5.6.Hyundai Sonata Hybrid
5.7.Nissan Note e-POWER
5.8.Ford Fusion Hybrid
5.9.Summary of HEV Car Models
6.1.LCV Definition
6.2.Hybrid Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)
6.3.Electrified LCV Market Drivers
6.4.Battery-electric Light Commercial Vehicle TCO
6.5.TCO Summary: Small, Medium and Large Electric LCVs
6.6.Plug-in Hybrid LCVs
6.7.Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market Report
7.1.Bus Types
7.2.Electric Buses: Market History
7.3.HEV Bus History and Forecast
7.4.HEV Buses
7.5.List of 90 Hybrid Bus Manufacturers
7.6.Volvo's Hybrid Bus Classifications
7.9.IVECO Urbanway Full Hybrid
7.10.BAE Hybrid Systems
7.11.Allison Transmission
7.12.ZF Hybrid Drives
7.13.The UK's 1,000 Hybrid Buses 10 Years Later
7.14.UK Hybrid Bus Trials Results
8.1.Truck Classifications & Hybrids
8.2.Electric Trucks: Winners & Losers
8.3.HEV Truck Market History and Forecast
8.4.Scania L-Series
8.6.Volvo FE Hybrid
8.8.DAF LF Hybrid
9.1.Japanese HEV Car Market
9.5.Japanese HEV Car Forecast
9.6.HINO Mild Hybrid Buses and Trucks
9.7.Historic HEV & MH Bus Market
9.8.HEV Bus Forecast
9.9.Historic HEV & MH Truck Market
9.10.HEV Truck Forecast
10.1.EU Passenger Car CO2 Emissions Targets
10.2.Europe Emissions Standards: Cars
10.3.Europe Emissions Standards: LCVs
10.4.Europe Emissions Standards: Heavy-duty Vehicles
10.5.EU Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle CO2 Targets
10.6.EU Car CO2 Emissions
10.7.Can HEVs Help Meet CO2 Regulations?
10.8.EU + EFTA HEV & MH Car Market
10.9.EU + EFTA HEV Car Market
10.10.HEV Car Specifications
10.11.EU HEV Car Market Share by Manufacturer
10.12.EU HEV Car Forecast
10.13.EU HEV & MH Bus Market
10.14.EU HEV Bus Forecast
10.15.EU HEV & MH Truck Market
10.16.EU HEV Truck Forecast
10.17.EU LCV CO2 Emissions
10.18.EU HEV & MH LCV Market
11.1.China Policy
11.2.China Dual Credit Policy
11.3.Other Policy
11.4.China HEV Car Market
11.5.China HEV Car Forecast
11.6.Toyota to Share Hybrid Technology to Chinese GAC
11.7.China HEV & MH Bus Market
11.8.China HEV Bus Forecast
12.1.US Passenger Car CO2 Emissions Regulations
12.2.US HEV & MH Car Market
12.3.US HEV Car Market
12.4.HEV Car Specifications
12.6.US HEV Car Forecast
12.7.US HEV & MH Bus Market
12.8.US HEV Bus Forecast
13.1.Historic Emissions Targets
13.2.Emissions Targets Post-2020
13.3.South Korean HEV Car Market
13.4.Japanese Manufacturer Struggles in South Korea
13.5.South Korean HEV Car Market
13.6.Hyundai (excl. Kia)
13.8.South Korea HEV Car Forecast
13.9.HEV & MH Buses in South Korea
14.1.48V Full Hybrid Definition
14.2.48V Hybrids
14.3.Can 48V Full Hybrids Beat high-voltage HEVs?
14.4.Impacting But Not Quickly Eliminating 48V MH and High-voltage HEV
14.5.Some of the leading models adding 48V options 2021-2030
14.6.48V Electric Vehicle Market Report
15.1.Total Cost of Ownership
15.2.TCO Future Assumptions
15.3.TCO in the Future for HEVs
15.4.TCO Analysis Conclusions
16.1.Forecast Methodology
16.2.Assumptions Summary
16.3.Impact of COVID-19 on Forecasts
16.4.Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
16.5.Differences in Short-term and Long-term 'Peak Car'
16.6.HEV Global Car Sales Forecast
16.7.HEV Car Battery Capacity Trends and Assumptions
16.8.Li-ion vs NiMH Trends and Assumptions
16.9.Global HEV Car Battery Demand Forecast
16.10.HEV Car MGs Trends and Assumptions
16.11.Global HEV Car MG Demand Forecast
16.12.Regional Price Breakdown for HEV Cars
16.13.HEV Car Market Value
16.14.HEV Global Bus and Truck Sales Forecast
16.15.HEV Bus and Truck Battery Trends and Assumptions
16.16.Global HEV Bus and Truck Battery Demand Forecast
16.17.HEV Bus and Truck MG Trends and Assumptions
16.18.Global HEV Bus and Truck MG Demand Forecast
16.19.Vehicle Price Assumptions
16.20.Global HEV Bus and Truck Market Value
16.21.Total On-Road HEV Sales Forecast
16.22.Total On-Road HEV Battery Demand Forecast
16.23.Total On-Road HEV MG Demand Forecast
16.24.Total On-Road HEV Market Value Forecast
16.25.Summary and Outlook
17.1.HEV Regional Car Sales Forecast
17.2.Regional HEV Car Battery Demand Forecast
17.3.HEV Car Battery Demand Forecast by Chemistry
17.4.Regional HEV Car MG Power Demand Forecast
17.5.Regional HEV Car MG Demand Forecast
17.6.Regional HEV Car Market Value
17.7.Regional HEV Bus and Truck Sales Forecast
17.8.HEV Global Bus and Truck Sales Forecast
17.9.Regional HEV Bus and Truck Battery Demand Forecast
17.10.Global HEV Bus and Truck Battery Demand Forecast
17.11.Global HEV Bus and Truck MG Power Demand Forecast
17.12.Global HEV Bus and Truck MG Demand Forecast
17.13.Regional HEV Bus and Truck Market Value
17.14.Global HEV Bus and Truck Market Value
17.15.Total On-Road HEV Sales Forecast
17.16.Total On-Road HEV Battery Demand Forecast
17.17.Total On-Road HEV MG Power Demand Forecast
17.18.Total On-Road HEV MG Demand Forecast
17.19.Total On-Road HEV Market Value Forecast

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