New Electric Vehicle Powertrain Will Grab $302 Billion Business
2019年10月7日 Dr Peter Harrop
48V Full Hybrid is a Prius killer. New research by IDTechEx in its report, 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030 reveals that the 48V mild hybrid powertrain is a done deal. Started in 2016, now a flood of car models have this, to keep them legal in the face of tightening emissions laws and save fuel. They improve comfort, for example by powering active suspension, and improve performance. Improvements in 48V mild hybrids will continue. Next year the 48V repertoire will even expand to Ferrari, Volkswagen Golf, and family cars in China. None are electric vehicles because they never drive the wheels electrically, but it is now clear that they can be developed into just that. Previously thought impossible, 48V full hybrids are on the way and they will do more than replace conventional cars and a few buses and trucks.
48V full hybrids promise to beat traditional hybrid electric vehicles on price by a big margin. 48V full hybrid is going to grab around 10% of the total car market with something that is a bit of a mouthful. It will be "70% of an engine-dominant high-voltage hybrid's benefits at 30% of the powertrain cost". Overall, it will take around $300 billion dollars of the car business by displacing conventional vehicle business even more than traditional hybrid business.
2020 will see first sales and 2023 the first big deliveries. The big prize is silent takeoff, creep in traffic, active cruising at speed and parking - all with engine off. Also, more comfort and features. Pioneers include Skoda experimenting with them for four years and Continental and Borg Warner newly offering a full kit of 48V full hybrid parts to carmakers. 48V mild hybrids were seen as a quick fix with a limited window of opportunity and that was that. Now, 48V mild hybrids are seeing a new roadmap of great improvements discussed in the report, and the 48V full hybrid could take the technology past 2030. That is possibly beyond the life in the marketplace of the traditional HEV and plug in hybrid PHEV as they get throttled between 48V full hybrids on price and pure electric cars (including solar 1000km range versions) on performance and convenience. Indeed, it is now realised that incremental improvements to 48V full hybrid powertrains may possibly extend to such exotica as solar and supercapacitor bodywork, electricity producing suspension, autonomy and other features previously reserved for a pure electric end game.
The report 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030 reflects these new realities. The "Executive Summary and Conclusions" is sufficient in itself for those with limited time. It explains the architecture including that of the important new 48V full hybrids. It lists primary conclusions by market, technology, vehicle manufacturers and Tier One suppliers strongly involved. The Introduction explains ongoing incremental improvements including those producing more electricity and the large number of ways it can be used to improve emissions, comfort, performance and economy. New infographics explain how these powertrains fit in with all options and you see the four key sales propositions for 48V hybrids as they evolve. Learn where 48V opportunities in other vehicles fit in and see many examples of such vehicles, but discover the curious case of Japan. Launch dates and fuel for different versions in 25 brands are tabled. There is a SOFT report for the 48V powertrain and forecasts 2020-2030 for number price and value market including geographical market. There are detailed technology roadmaps to 2030.
Chapter 3 is unique in explaining the new 48V full hybrids, the work of those involved, product positioning, and technology futures, including whether a 48V plug in hybrid makes sense. Chapter 4 extensively appraises 48V hybrid work by manufacturer. That is 83 pages of ghost diagrams, vehicle images and commentary. Chapter 5 addresses 48V hybrid trucks preparing for market and Chapter 6 covers the technology detail for the all-important starter-motor-generators. Chapter 7 completes the report with many new infograms revealing how batteries, supercapacitors and solar bodywork form a part of the future 48V mild and full hybrid options. 30 minutes free consultancy on the topic comes with the deal.
Top image: Continental AG