Electric Buses and Taxis 2011-2021: IDTechEx

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Electric Buses and Taxis 2011-2021

Updated October 2011

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This is the world's first report forecasting the global market for electric buses and taxis both hybrid and pure electric. It separately forecasts the market in the most important country, China, and it takes a detailed look at technologies present and future with a blunt assessment of reasons for failure and threats for the future, not just the positive aspects. The market for electric buses and taxis will rise 8.7 times from 2011 to 2021, approaching $60 billion not long after that. The buses will be designed exclusively for purpose, though some will have power trains used for trucks as well. The taxis will largely consist of regular cars and people movers with modest adaptation. We explain why, for both, this is the decade of the hybrid but with pure electric versions coming up fast. China will become by far the largest market for both electric buses and electric taxis within the decade. This report looks at the statistics and trends for conventional buses and taxis, the government incentives, paybacks and new technologies with detailed tables and figures to summarise the situation, so the reader can understand the situation with ease. There are no rambling anecdotes or cut and paste of catalog items here - this is all summary, comparison and prediction with numbers, unit values, specifications and a profusion of images.
This uniquely up to date reference book is extremely thorough. Just one of the tables lists 78 hybrid bus manufacturers with country and product image, another lists 53 pure electric bus manufacturers with country and product image and another compares 68 lithium-ion traction battery manufacturers with cathode and anode chemistry and other technical detail and who is using these batteries - naming bus, car and other companies using them, explaining who is winning and why. There is a table comparing eight electric taxi projects with country, image and commentary, including technical detail, and another comparing many fuel cell bus trials. Many of the figures are graphs, bar charts, pie charts, and other analysis to allow you to assess the situation quickly and conveniently.
The market forecasts cover units, unit prices and total market value 2011-2021 backed up by forecasts for the market for all types of bus taken together, each for global and separately China. Taxi number, unit value and market value is similarly forecasted and the whole is put in the context of statistics for past sales and production output by manufacturer and forecasts for the electric vehicle market as a whole. The leading suppliers are identified. Transmission manufacturers are compared using sectioned technical diagrams. There is a glossary of terms and one hour of free consultancy with every purchase will answer any questions you have remaining.
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Electric Vehicle experts IDTechEx have encapsulated over ten years of research and analysis into an easy to digest electric vehicle encyclopedia. All the technologies are covered and supported with over 100 tables and illustrations and over 200 acronyms and terms are explained. This encyclopedia, worth $1,500, is given as a free PDF download when you buy this report.
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アイディーテックエックス株式会社 (IDTechEx日本法人)
担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Global market for electric taxis based on regular cars as a percentage of the total electric car market in 2021 at ex factory prices
1.1.Definitions
1.1.Global demand for electric buses and taxis $ billion 2011-2021
1.2.Global electric bus demand market forecast for 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and numbers pure electric in thousands with total
1.2.Manufacturing buses and taxis
1.2.Global electric bus demand market forecast 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and pure electric in thousands and total
1.3.Electric vs all buses purchased globally of units 2010-2021 rounded
1.3.Hybrids are key for now
1.3.Electric vs all buses purchased globally and % penetration of electric 2010-2021 in thousands rounded
1.4.Market drivers of global growth of bus and electric bus sales 2011-2021 and impediments
1.4.Advantages of electric buses
1.4.Bus size vs fuel consumption
1.5.Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
1.5.Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region
1.5.Approximate annual purchase of hybrid electric replacement buses by major cities in the period 2015-2021
1.6.Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
1.6.Demand and production in China
1.6.Unit pricing, number and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
1.7.The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
1.7.Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars
1.7.Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
1.8.Pricing of hybrid buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
1.8.Taxis
1.8.Number of buses purchased in 2011 by region
1.9.In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2011-2021
1.9.Unit pricing, number and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
1.10.Pricing of pure electric buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
1.10.Kent electric city bus from China
1.11.Hino Blue Ribbon hybrid diesel electric bus in China
1.11.The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
1.12.Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth
1.12.Electric bus in China
1.13.Bus by Tongkun New Energy Technologies Co. and FAW Bus and Coach Co
1.13.In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2011-2021
1.14.Estimates of hybrid bus transmission sales by manufacturer in 2009
1.14.Electric pick up truck from China Vehicles Company
1.15.Garbage collecting electric car by Shandong Shunxing Machinery
1.15.Hybrid bus sales 2008-2013 - forecasted numbers globally for some leading suppliers
1.16.Growth rate of market by numbers for buses and electric buses, hybrid and pure electric, 2011-2021
1.16.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2011
1.17.The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2011
1.17.Total number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands and % market share
1.18.Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021 by number, unit value and market value
1.18.Total number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
1.19.Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
1.19.Demand in China for taxis and electric taxis, thousands and % penetration of taxis in China and of global electric taxis
1.20.Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
1.20.Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021
1.21.Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis in China 2010-2021 in thousands
1.21.Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
1.22.Examples of taxi population in leading cities
1.22.Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
1.23.Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
1.23.2009 production statistics
1.24.Examples of taxi population in leading cities
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Isuzu sales of buses 2005-2009
2.1.Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
2.1.Electric vehicles in general
2.2.Advantages of electric buses
2.2.Challenges of electric buses and taxis
2.2.Electric bus in Nepal
2.3.PhUV pure electric bus
2.3.Main market drivers 2011-2021
2.3.Highlights 2011-2021
2.4.Definitions and trends
2.4.Electric vehicle highlights 2011-2021
2.4.Tara pure electric Shuttle
2.5.A Volvo hybrid powertrain for buses is shown below
2.5.Limitations of trolleybuses and trams
2.5.Modest success of electric microbuses
2.6.Convergence of hybrid and pure electric buses.
2.6.Orion VII NG hybrid bus
2.7.Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric buses showing the convergence of hybrid and pure electric technologies as the conventional internal combustion engine ICE is abandoned
2.7.Convergence of trolley buses and free running electric buses
2.8.CNG Preferred for Los Angeles Buses
2.8.Rome trolleybus raising its trolley arms to switch from battery to overhead-wire power. In the view on the right the pick-up has yet to properly locate itself around the overhead wires
2.9.Opbrid pantograph for fast recharging
2.10.Hydrogen fuel cell for buses etc from UTC Power
2.11.Ultracapacitor layout in a MAN hybrid bus
2.12.In-road charging of small buses in Turin, Italy
2.13.Straddling bus concept
3.ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES
3.1.Pure electric bus in 1907
3.1.History of electric buses
3.1.78 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses, with country of headquarters and image
3.2.53 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and image
3.2.Main components of hybrid bus power trains
3.2.Proposal for new London double decker hybrid electric bus
3.3.Capoco driverless electric bus concept
3.3.Fuel cells rescued by batteries
3.4.Insectbus concept
3.5.78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by country of headquarters.
3.6.78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by continent of headquarters.
3.7.Sample of 53 pure electric bus manufacturers by continent
3.8.Sample of 53 pure electric bus manufacturers by country
3.9.Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
3.10.Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
3.11.Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
4.PROFILES OF SOME INTERESTING SUPPLIERS
4.1.Alexander Dennis Enviro400 hybrid bus configuration
4.1.Alexander Dennis UK
4.2.Anhui Ankai Automobile Company China
4.2.Daimler bus production locations
4.3.Unit sales of the Daimler bus division 2008-9
4.3.Daimler Germany
4.4.DesignLine International New Zealand
4.4.Daimler bus sales by global region H1 2009
4.5.Daimler bus market share and market share of leading competitors in 2007
4.5.Hino Motors and parent company, Toyota Japan
4.6.IVECO Italy
4.6.Daimler's technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015
4.7.HyFLEET:CUTE fuel cell bus project in Europe and the US
4.7.ISE Corp, USA
4.8.Navistar USA
4.8.Hino hybrid bus
4.9.Hino "no plug in" bus.
4.9.Optare UK
4.10.Proterra
4.10.The positioning of the planned Toyota fuel cell hybrid bus FCHV-BUS
4.11.Iveco pure electric bus elements
4.11.Ryobe Bus Japan
4.12.TATA India
4.12.Iveco configurations
4.13.ISE lean burn hybrid bus
4.13.Wrightbus UK
4.14.Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd, China
4.14.ISE initial hybrid configuration
4.15.Ryobe solar assisted electric bus
4.16.The Bladon Jets microturbine range extender is the size of two large cans of beans
4.17.Jaguar concept car demonstrated late 2010
4.18.Tata electric roadmap of launches
4.19.A Zhongtong pure electric bus
5.BUS DRIVE TRAINS
5.1.Adura's MESA Powertrain
5.1.Adura Systems USA
5.2.Allison Transmission USA
5.2.Azure Dynamics powertrain
5.3.BAE Systems Hybridrive series hybrid bus powertrain
5.3.Azure Dynamics USA
5.4.BAE Systems UK, USA
5.4.Eaton hybrid powertrain
5.5.ISE Corp hybrid powertrain
5.5.BLK China
5.6.Eaton USA
5.6.SIM Drive in wheel traction
5.7.SR drives series parallel power unit
5.7.ISE Corporation
5.8.SIM Drive Corporation Japan
5.8.ThunderVolt hybrid drive train for ISE buses
5.9.SR Drives UK, Green Propulsion Belgium
5.10.ThunderVolt USA
6.ELECTRIC TAXI MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES
6.1.Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi
6.1.Electric taxi projects in US, UK, Europe, China, Japan and Mexico
6.1.Eight projects testing pure electric taxis
6.1.1.China
6.1.2.Mexico
6.2.Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan 2011
6.2.Mitsubishi Minicab i-MiEV
6.2.1.Mitsubishi MiEV taxi
6.3.Mitsubishi MiEV Minicab
7.TRACTION BATTERIES, FUEL CELLS, RANGE EXTENDERS
7.1.Traction battery experience curve for pure electric battery electric vehicles
7.1.Traction batteries
7.1.What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
7.2.71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
7.2.Who is Winning in Traction Batteries and Why
7.2.Volkswagen forecasts the following cost trend for the favoured types of traction battery.
7.2.1.The needs have radically changed
7.2.2.It started with cobalt
7.2.3.Great variety of recipes
7.2.4.Other factors
7.2.5.Check with reality
7.2.6.Lithium winners today and soon
7.2.7.Reasons for winning
7.2.8.Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
7.2.9.Winning chemistry
7.2.10.Titanate establishes a place
7.2.11.Laminar structure
7.2.12.Niche winners
7.2.13.Fluid situation
7.3.Progress in improving energy density vs power density of traction batteries.
7.4.Comparison of benefits and challenges for various types of traction battery.
7.5.Geely IG solar car
7.6.Japanese ten meter long deep sea cruising AUV, the URASHIMA
7.7.Bionic dolphin
7.8.Deepflight Merlin
7.9.Cri-Cri pure electric stunt plane new in 2010
7.10.Oshkosh truck
7.11.Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
8.FUEL CELLS
8.1.Series hybrid bus being developed by Mobile Energy Solutions
8.1.Trials of fuel cell powered vehicles
8.2.Fuel cell 2000 summary of fuel cell bus trials to 2010
8.2.MAN hybrid fuel cell bus
8.3.Van Hool fuel cell buses on trial
8.3.Range extenders
8.4.Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
8.5.Mercedes Benz fuel cell bus trial
9.MARKET STATISTICS AND FORECASTS
9.1.World heavy bus production by country and type for 2008-9
9.1.Past trends
9.1.2009 production statistics
9.1.1.Commercial vehicles
9.2.North American sales of school buses 2000-2009
9.2.Bus production by country in 2002
9.2.Buses - historical trends
9.3.School buses - North America
9.3.Global sales of buses by region 2002
9.3.Daimler Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.4.Fiat Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.4.Country percentage share of heavy bus and school bus production in 2009
9.4.Past trend in bus production by country
9.5.US population of buses by type
9.5.US aircraft, vehicles and other conveyances 1995-2006
9.5.GAZ Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.6.General Motors vehicle production by type in 2009
9.6.US transportation capital stock by mode 1995-2007 current $ billion
9.6.Transport modes in India
9.7.Motor vehicle production by leading producers
9.7.Indian Cities Mode Split, 2007 (Wilbur Smith 2008)
9.7.Hyundai Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.8.Mahindra Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.8.The UK top five bus suppliers in 2006 and 2007
9.8.Global electric bus deliveries to start of 2011.
9.9.Forecasts to 2021
9.9.Global demand for electric buses and taxis $ billion 2010-2021
9.9.Navistar Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.9.1.Global demand for electric buses and taxis
9.9.2.Manufacturing buses and taxis
9.10.Tata Group vehicle production in 2009
9.10.Global electric bus demand market forecast for 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and numbers pure electric in thousands with total.
9.10.Technology future
9.10.1.Hybrids are key for now
9.11.Volvo group production in 2009
9.11.Future leading manufacturers
9.11.Electric vs all buses purchased globally and % penetration of electric 2010-2021 in thousands rounded
9.11.1.Today's leading electric bus manufacturer
9.11.2.Future leading user nation
9.11.3.Buses and taxis a good launch pad for new technologies
9.11.4.Global conventional and electric bus demand 2010-2021
9.11.5.Advantages of electric buses
9.12.Global market for electric taxis based on regular cars as a percentage of the total electric car market in 2021
9.12.Market drivers of global growth of bus and electric bus sales 2011-2021 and impediments
9.12.Decade of the hybrid
9.13.Liberty Electric Cars
9.13.Approximate annual purchase of hybrid electric replacement buses by major cities in the period 2015-2021
9.13.Global electric bus demand market forecast 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and pure electric in thousands and total
9.14.Electric vs all buses purchased globally of units 2010-2021 rounded
9.14.Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
9.14.Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region
9.15.Conventional and electric bus demand and production in China
9.15.Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
9.15.Bus size vs fuel consumption
9.16.Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
9.16.Pricing of hybrid buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
9.16.Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars
9.17.Global electric vehicle manufacturers by application
9.17.Unit pricing, number (thousand) and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
9.17.Unit pricing, number (thousand) and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
9.18.The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
9.18.Pricing of pure electric buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
9.18.Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by application
9.18.2.Taxis
9.19.Number of buses purchased in 2011 by region
9.19.Adoption of green taxis
9.19.The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
9.20.Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth
9.20.Electric vehicles in East Asia
9.20.In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2011-2021
9.21.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2011
9.21.In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2011-2021
9.22.Estimates of hybrid bus transmission sales by manufacturer in 2009
9.22.The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2011
9.23.Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
9.23.Hybrid bus sales 2008-2013 - forecasted numbers globally for some leading suppliers
9.24.Growth rate of market by numbers for buses and electric buses, hybrid and pure electric, 2011-2021
9.24.Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
9.25.Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
9.25.Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands and % market share
9.26.Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021 by number, unit value and market value
9.26.Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021.
9.27.Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
9.27.Demand in China for taxis and electric taxis, thousands and % penetration of taxis in China and of global electric taxis
9.28.Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
9.28.Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
9.29.Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
9.29.Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
9.30.Examples of taxi population in leading cities
9.30.Examples of taxi population in leading cities
9.31.The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2011
9.31.The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2011-2021
9.32.The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2021
APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY
APPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
APPENDIX 3: INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES
TABLES
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