플러그인 하이브리드 및 배터리 전기 자동차 기술동향, 주요 기업 및 시장 전망 2025-2045

이 보고서에서는 전기 자동차 시장 전반에 대해 아래와 같은 주요 정보를 제공합니다.

 

글로벌 및 지역별 시장 분석

 

기술 동향

 

시장 전망

 

이 보고서에서 다루는 주요 내용/목차는 아래와 같습니다.

 

1. 핵심 요약

2. 2024년 상반기까지의 매출 실적, 주요 업체 및 글로벌 트렌드에 대한 분석

3. 미국: 정책, 시장, 전망, EPA/CARB 규정, 픽업트럭의 등장, 주요 OEM 현황

4. 유럽 + EFTA + 영국: 정책, 시장, 전망, EU CO2 규제에 대한 평가와 2025년 주요 OEM별 영향

5. 중국: 정책, 시장, 전망, NEV 시장 성과, 이중 크레딧 시스템 업데이트, 주요 OEM 현황

6. 기술 동향

7. 리튬이온 배터리의 주요 발전과 자동차 시장에 미치는 영향

8. 전기 모터: 모터 유형별 시장 점유율, 희토류 감소에 대한 OEM 접근 방식.

9. 전력 전자: 800볼트 아키텍처와 실리콘 카바이드(SiC) 및 질화 갈륨(GaN)의 등장

10. 연료 전지 전기 자동차: 수소전기차의 시장 성과, 주요 도입 장벽, 시장 전망

11. 시장 전망: 드라이브트레인(BEV, PHEV, FCEV) 및 주요 지역(미국, EU + EFTA + 영국, 중국)에 대한 세분화된 20년 예측 및 시장 가치(US$), 배터리 수요(GWh)에 대한 예측

 

Despite market headwinds, battery electric cars are set to dominate the automotive industry. It is a question of when, not if, they overtake internal combustion engine (ICE) sales globally. This report offers a deep dive into the current slowdown in growth in key regions, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the regulations and policies that will shake up the market in 2025 and beyond.

 

The car market is the largest transport sector, with IDTechEx estimating that over 90 million vehicles were sold globally in 2023. This sector also contributes significantly to road transport greenhouse gas emissions, so there is a strong push to decarbonize vehicles. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are the best route to achieving this with zero tailpipe emissions and a well-established market status (over 10 million BEVs were sold in 2023). Electric cars are also a strong driver in the production and development of a host of ancillary products, such as lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, power electronics, and all the advanced and critical materials that go into these supply chains.

 

 

This IDTechEx research report contains global market analysis based on extensive sales and technical data. This includes analysis of key, best-selling models, average battery capacity, and motor trends. IDTechEx breaks down the 14.4 million plug-in vehicles sold in 2023 to reveal the underlying trends in this fast-evolving market. Key market aspects discussed include:

 

Up until now, the electric car market has primarily been driven by consumer preference and generous government incentives. This has greatly benefitted early adopters, but outside of China EVs have mainly been vehicles in the premium luxury segment. However, the landscape is shifting, particularly in Europe. Governments are withdrawing subsidies, the 'carrot', and replacing them with the 'stick': tougher CO₂ regulations. From now on, increasingly large shares of a manufacturer's sales must be zero emission to avoid astronomical fines. For the EU, the next tightening will be in 2025, with a further hike in 2030 before a full ICE ban in 2035. Manufacturers and countries are split on these rules, with some protesting and others acquiescing. In the absence of a major change in regulations, IDTechEx expects that EV sales must be drastically improved next year to avoid billions in fines.

 

 

Although Europe has the strictest CO₂ policies, the USA also has two sets of regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and California Air Resources Board (CARB). These will drive increased electric car sales in the world's second-largest car market.

 

IDTechEx expects China, the world's biggest car market by volume, could reach the extraordinary milestone in 2024 of 50% of new car sales being 'New Energy Vehicles' (NEVs, incl. BEV and PHEV). This has drastically outpaced the government's expectations, forcing them to adjust the dual-credit system to reflect this. China may have reached a critical mass in EV adoption and now no longer needs to rely on a system of regulation. Plug-in hybrids are proving especially popular in China, as unlike other regions they are treated no differently from a subsidy perspective than BEVs despite essentially being ICE cars with an electric motor.

 

Electric vehicle technology is primarily driven by the 'big three' - Li-ion batteries, traction motors, and power electronics.

 

Not all lithium-ion batteries are the same, although they leverage the same basic chemical principles. Technology diversification has emerged as a key strategy for dealing with supply chain volatility and shortages. EV manufacturers have long been searching for greater vehicle ranges, and many settled on nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) type batteries due to their high energy density. However, NMC has shown itself to rely on vulnerable supply chains due to the concentrations of nickel, cobalt, and manganese. These materials are also higher cost, resulting in higher cost batteries. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has seen a resurgence in recent years. Initially disregarded for electric car use due to its relatively low energy density, the cathode has seen increased popularity due to a variety of reasons. These include cell-to-pack innovations that allow for a higher pack energy density (offsetting the low cell energy density). Demand for low-cost models, with a smaller required driving range, also presents a positive outlook for LFP batteries.

 

 

This report contains granular 20-year forecasts & analysis, including:

This report provides critical market intelligence across the electric car markets containing data up to H1 2024.

 

 

 

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