지속적으로 성장하고 있는 전기 경상용차(eLCV) 산업의 현황과 미래를 조망하고 있는 이번 보고서에서는 배터리, 플러그인 하이브리드, 연료전지 경상용차에 대한 데이터 베이스를 바탕으로 배터리 기술, 차량 성능의 추세, 판매량 및 시장규모에 대한 분석을 포함하여 향후 20년간 시장 예측과 전망을 제공합니다.
IDTechEx의 이 보고서는 다음과 같은 주요 정보를 제공합니다.
전기화의 주요 동인
- 무공해 LCV 에 대한 수요 증가
- 지역별 배기가스 규제, 연소 엔진 금지, 재정적 인센티브
- eLCV 의 총소유비용 (TCO)
- 주요 OEM 및 LCV 전기화
시장규모 심층 분석
- 과거 eLCV 판매내역
- 지역별 및 파워트레인별 시장 세분화 (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
- 시판중인 주요 eLCV 모델별 판매 데이터
- 배터리 및 모터의 OEM 및 공급업체 관계
- 주요 OEM의 100개 이상의 eLCV 모델 분석
기술 동향
- 주행거리 요건에 따른 배터리 크기의 조정
- 플러그인 하이브리드 및 수소 연료전지 LCV 기술 검토
시장 전망
- 지역별, 파워트레인별 eLCV 판매, 배터리 수요, 연료전지 수요 및 시장 규모 전망
이 보고서에서 다루는 주요 내용/목차는 아래와 같습니다.
1. 핵심 요약 및 결론
2. 개요
- LCV 전기화의 동인
- 지역별 배기가스 규제 및 화석연료 금지 조치
- eLCV 의 도전과제
3. 모델 데이터
- 주요 OEM의 eLCV 모델에 대한 종합 데어터
4. 총 소유비용 (TCO)
- CAPEX, OPEX, 감가상각, 보험 등을 포함한 상세한 TCO 분석
- 구매 보조금 및 배기가스 요금의 영향
- 총 리스 비용 분석
5. 유럽
- 최신 판매 및 시장 데이터
- 주요 OEM
- 지역별 구매 보조금 및 TCO
- 모델 및 사례 연구
6. 미국
- 최신 판매 및 시장 데이터
- 주요 OEM
- 지역별 구매 보조금 및 TCO
- 모델 및 사례 연구
7. 기타지역
- 최신 판매 및 시장 데이터
- 주요 OEM
- 지역별 구매 보조금 및 TCO
- 모델 및 사례 연구
8. 배터리
- 배터리 기술 비교
- 배터리 크기 분석
- eLCV OEM 과 배터리 공급업체의 관계
9. 모터
- 모터 기술 비교
- 모터 크기 분석
- OEM 과 모터 공급업체의 관계
10. 플러그인 하이브리드 LCV
- PHEV 의 장점과 장벽
- BEV와의 비용 및 성능 비교
- 모델 및 사례 연구
11. 연료전지 LCV
- 수소 전기차의 장점과 장벽
- BEV와의 비용 및 성능 비교
- 모델 및 사례 연구
12. 시장 전망
- 향후 20년간 eLCV 판매량, 배터리 수요, 연료전지 수요 및 시장 규모 예측
- 지역 및 파워트레인별 세분화된 전망
IDTechEx's report "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" provides a deep and granular analysis of the ever-growing electric light commercial vehicle (eLCV) industry. IDTechEx has assembled the most comprehensive database of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell LCVs available, with this report revealing trends in market size and sales, battery technology, vehicle performance, and more.
The eLCV market may not be as developed as that of electric cars, but increasing demand for zero-emission mobility from governments and the public, combined with electrification progress from OEMs and continuing maturation of battery technology, have created substantial growth in the eLCV industry to date. IDTechEx's new report forecasts a continuation in this growth, with the global eLCV market set to reach over 11 million unit sales by 2045.
The eLCV market is forecasted to grow to over 11 million annual sales in 2045, Source: IDTechEx
Regulation and incentives look set to drive eLCV adoption
Much of the eLCV market's growth to date has been driven by government regulation and the increasing desire to roll out zero-emission last mile logistics solutions for road freight and e-commerce. This has led to roughly 5% of all LCV sales in 2023 being EVs - greater than any other class of commercial vehicles except buses. However, the spread of eLCVs globally has been far from equal. Europe and China, driven by tighter emissions restrictions and more lucrative purchase grants for eLCVs, have both seen rapid market expansion and are approaching 10% EV penetration. Meanwhile, the US lags far behind on electrification legislation and benefits from lower fossil fuel prices to the detriment of its eLCV market.
Despite this, the new IDTechEx report expects the regulatory landscape around eLCV emissions will become even more restrictive over the next two decades, as governments stretch to meet their Paris Agreement goals and other sustainability initiatives. These will come in the form of low-emission and zero-emission zones as well as outright bans on the sale of fossil fuel LCVs. Most notably, the EU has already passed such a ban for 2035, while the UK has considered an earlier 2030 date and China is expected to impose a ban too. Even the usually sluggish US has introduced new decarbonization plans specifically for LCVs, including revamped subsidy programs. IDTechEx expects that such developments will provide a major boost to the industry as a whole and incentivize uptake of EV technology for LCV fleets. For more information on how government intervention will shape the future of the eLCV market, see the full "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" report.
Success of eLCV sales in major global markets, Source: IDTechEx
eLCVs can meet fleets' performance needs now, and their financial needs soon
While government regulation will be a potent tool in driving uptake of eLCVs, the vehicles themselves also have to be able to meet the needs of fleet operators around the world. Fleets, and the types of vehicles they use, vary widely around the world in size, capacity, and range depending on the needs of each region's market. eLCVs need to not only match the performance of existing diesel LCVs on all these metrics but also do so affordably.
When it comes to performance, IDTechEx's "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" report demonstrates that eLCV technology is already sufficiently developed to meet the performance requirements of fleets. This is especially true for range considerations, where eLCVs can complete multiple days' driving distance with ease on a single charge. Maturation of the core technology has also led to all major LCV OEMs now producing EV versions of their most popular models. This report details over 100 eLCV models from all key OEMs (including Renault, Ford, Hyundai, Geely, and more), which have been analyzed to unearth trends in eLCV design, batteries, and motors across global markets.
The cost of an eLCV will soon be favorable over a diesel LCV too. eLCVs already benefit from lower operating costs (from energy and maintenance) than a combustion engine alternative, but in the present day market they suffer from high capital cost and poor resale value, leading to higher total costs of ownership (TCO). However, continued development of vehicle and battery technology and economies of scale from increased production will help bring down the upfront cost of eLCVs. At the same time, governments are offering assistance in the form of purchase grants while increasingly stringent emissions regulation makes it more costly to own a combustion LCV.
With all these factors, IDTechEx expects diesel and electric LCVs will achieve upfront cost parity and also equalize in resale value, allowing the eLCV to generate TCO savings and providing a market driver for adoption.
What role will fuel cells play in the future of LCVs?
Hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) LCVs provide the potential for greater range and faster refueling than what a battery-electric (BEV) model could promise. But for an FCEV to truly be a zero-emission solution, it must utilize green hydrogen - currently in short supply and far more expensive to use in LCVs than electricity. Hydrogen also suffers from a lack of adequate production and transport infrastructure in the short-term, though this will be remedied with time. IDTechEx's report delves into the key challenges faced by hydrogen LCVs, including considerations of their value proposition to fleets as compared to BEVs.
"Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" brings together all these trends and more, highlighting the transformation that lies in the near future for LCVs. It considers regulation and sales trends in global markets, all key eLCV players, and total costs of ownership for the burgeoning industry. 20-year granular forecasts broken down by region and powertrain provide critical insight into the key markets driving this change within the industry.