Treni elettrici a batteria e celle a combustibile a idrogeno 2023-2043: IDTechEx

Battery & fuel cell electric train markets including BELs, BMUs & shunters grow at 21% CAGR globally

Treni elettrici a batteria e celle a combustibile a idrogeno 2023-2043

Locomotiva elettrica a batteria (BEV) e a celle a combustibile (FC) (BEL), treni a unità multiple (BMU) e shunter, previsioni granulari a 20 anni. Richiesta di batterie agli ioni di litio (GWh) e domanda di celle a combustibile (GW). Analisi dei fornitori di batterie e celle a combustibile nei mercati dei veicoli elettrici pesanti.

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Rail networks today already largely consist of electric trains 'tethered' to electric overhead and live rail systems. However, this is not feasible everywhere due to the high infrastructure cost/mile, remote geographic locations, and the practicality of building through tunnels and bridges. For these stretches of track, rail OEMs and operators currently rely on diesel fuel - which is their number two cost. Use of diesel cannot continue forever in any market, and multiple rail OEMs and operators believe the time is now to transition towards zero emission rail technologies.
Indeed, the IDTechEx report shows demand for untethered electric trains will increase rapidly over the coming years as rail OEMs seek to reduce high diesel costs and follow broad climate goals such as the Paris Agreement and 'Fit for 55' in Europe. Industry momentum has been building through the rapid advancement of Li-ion battery technology, with systems now capable of reaching the multi mega-watt hour (MWh) level in confined carriage spaces. Systems up to ~14.5MWh are being installed today in the largest trains, known as battery electric (BEV) locomotives, or BELs. In the future, the vast energy requirements of rail will eventually lead to some of the largest traction battery deployments across all electric vehicle markets - potentially beyond 20MWh per train. Improvements in battery energy density and charging technology is expected to increase over the forecast period, but even then, the longest-range requirements will create some opportunities for green hydrogen fuel cells.
In this report, IDTechEx assesses the global opportunities emerging for battery-electric (BEV) and fuel cell (FC) trains as diesel use declines and energy storage technologies advance rapidly. Granular 20-year forecasts include train deliveries, battery demand (GWh), fuel cell demand (MW) and market value ($ billion) across locomotives, multiple units, and shunter trains. The cost evolution of railroad batteries, fuel cells and green hydrogen is also explored to assess the long-term feasibility of each solution, drawing from primary research across multiple company interviews.
Electric trains: Locomotives, shunters & multiple units
Initial rail electrification will be led by multiple units (MU), which are trains used for passenger operations. BEV MUs are being developed to replace the diesel MUs currently operating between regional and intercity lines. Initial deployments have focused on route lengths of up to around 100km, which requires battery systems comparable to commercial road vehicles today.
In the longer term, electrification will be led by locomotives, with adoption timelines provided in the report for mainline locomotives ('locomotives') and shunter locomotives ('shunters'), also known as switchers. Shunters are railyard vehicles used for moving various cars around yards or stations. This sector does not require range and has greater potential for opportunity charging. As a result, there is a wider range of energy storage possibilities, from LTO to typical G/NMC based Li-ion batteries, with analysis in the report.
Mainline locomotives are largely commercial & industrial freight trains, although this varies between key electrification regions such as the US, Europe, and China. Locomotives have a larger addressable market than multiple units, and since they are larger and more expensive vehicles, often with long range requirements, they require mega-watt hour battery systems. Locomotives represent the greatest opportunity for the heavy-duty battery supply chain, with battery demand assessed in the report.
Source: IDTechEx
Rail Li-ion battery systems, fuel cell systems, and green hydrogen
Battery-electric vehicles are at the forefront of the zero-emission technology being considered in rail, and improvements in battery energy density and charging technology is expected to increase over the forecast period. In the report, IDTechEx evaluates different battery chemistry options and their suitability for trains, comparing NMC, NCA, LFP, LTO, solid-state and lithium metal. IDTechEx shares primary research from over eight heavy-duty pack suppliers with leaders identified. Access to primary research interviews on the IDTechEx portal are also provided with the purchase of this report.
Rail has unique advantages because operations are highly predictable. Energy regeneration and route efficiency optimisation plays a large role in reducing energy (fuel) needs and has been a focus of the diesel industry for decades. This has laid the groundwork for BEV train adoption, where fuel economy will be the primary driver. An advanced energy management system (EMS) will have exact knowledge of the train (the number of locomotives/power), the track length, the train's load, the terrain, the signal and speed limits and more to optimize for fuel efficiency.
While there are many fuel cell suppliers for heavy duty EV applications, a small number are specifically targeting the rail market, although IDTechEx expects most can pivot to the sector as the opportunity emerges (another prime example of this is the marine market). Most companies make PEMFC with a small number making SOFC mostly targeted at stationary or marine markets. Ultimately, the high cost of green hydrogen, explored in the report, will remain a long-term challenge, while grey hydrogen will not be approved for use due to high carbon emissions.
Key aspects:
  • Granular 20-year forecasts of FCEV & BEV multiple units BMU/FMU, shunters, locomotives BEL/FEL 2022-2043 (unit sales, battery demand GWh, fuel cell demand GW, US$ billion).
  • Historic orders and near-term pipeline data for electric trains by supplier.
  • Analysis of primary market drivers and barriers for rail electrification.
  • Primary research interviews with rail system suppliers (OEM, battery, fuel cell).
  • Technology and cost analysis of energy storage technologies for rail including by battery chemistry, fuel cells/materials and green hydrogen.
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2022 - 2022
CAGRBattery & fuel cell electric train markets including BELs, BMUs & shunters grow at 21% CAGR globally
Forecast Period2023 - 2043
Forecast UnitsUnit train deliveries, battery demand GWh, fuel cell demand (MW), market value ($ billion).
Regions CoveredWorldwide
Segments CoveredBattery (BEV) and fuel cell (FC) multiple units, locomotives & shunters globally.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Electric Trains Report Introduction
1.2.Overview of Train Types
1.3.Six Key Report Findings for Electric Trains
1.4.Summary of Regional Opportunity for BEV & FC Trains
1.5.FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (Unit Sales)
1.6.BEV Multiple Unit Orders 2022-2026 & Supplier Market Shares
1.7.Climate Targets from over 10 Rail Operators
1.8.Battery Capacity of BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (kWh/ unit)
1.9.Battery Demand for FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (GWh)
1.10.Fuel Cell Demand from Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (GW)
1.11.FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (US$ bn)
1.12.Drivers for Zero-emission Rail
1.13.Key Performance Indicators for Train Battery Systems
1.14.Battery Chemistry Benchmarking for Trains
1.15.Rail Battery Pack Suppliers: Leaders & Challengers
1.16.Fuel Cell Technology Benchmarking for Rail
1.17.Rail Fuel Cell Suppliers: Leaders & Challengers
1.18.Rail Battery System Prices by Chemistry $/kWh
1.19.IDTechEx Online Portal Company Profile Access
2.1.Global Carbon Emissions from Trains
2.2.Drivers for Zero-emission Rail
2.3.EU 'Fit for 55'
2.4.Rail Sector Scope 1-3 Emissions Goals
2.5.Environment Targets: Rail Operators
2.6.Industry Vision of Rail in 2030
2.7.Rail Operators Setting Science Based Climate Targets
2.8.Catenary, Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Options
2.9.Barriers for Rail Electrification
2.10.100% Overhead or Live Rail is not Economically Viable
2.11.Overhead & Live Rail Electric Trains
2.12.Untethered Electric Trains for Regional / Intercity Routes
2.13.Diesel-Electric Operation is for Instant Torque not Emissions Reduction
2.14.Scope for On-Board Energy Storage: Locomotives
2.15.Scope for On-Board Energy Storage: Shunters
2.16.Manufacturers Market Share by Region
2.17.European Rail Network is Largely Electrified
2.18.US Rail Network: Electrification
2.19.American Rail Network
2.20.China Rail Network and Fleet
2.21.Summary of Regional Opportunity for BEV & FC Trains
3.1.Battery Electric Train Operation
3.2.Multiple Unit Trains
3.3.Global Multiple Unit Train Market
3.4.Market Share by Rail OEM for Multiple Units
3.5.Multiple Units: Number of Carriages
3.6.BEV MUs Significantly Reduce Emissions: German Case Study
3.7.Comparison Diesel / Electric Multiple Units
3.8.BEV Multiple Unit Orders 2022-2026 & Supplier Market Shares
3.9.Order List for BEV MU Trains 2020-2025
3.10.Siemens CityJet Eco Prototype BEV MU
3.11.Siemens Mireo Plus B
3.12.Stadler FLIRT Akku
3.13.Alstom Coradia Continental BEV multiple unit
3.14.The Addressable Market for Electric Locomotives
3.15.Order List for Electric Locotomotives
3.16.Wabtec FLXdrive Locomotive Orders & Real-World Results
3.17.CRRC Supply 1MWh BEV Loco for Vale in Brazil
3.18.Express Service BEV Shunters
3.19.Mega-watt Charging Infrastructure Challenge
4.1.Lithium Battery Chemistry Overview
4.2.Current & Emerging Lithium Batteries Ranked
4.3.The Promise of Silicon
4.4.Silicon Anode Material Opportunities
4.5.Silicon Anode - Company Benchmarking
4.6.LTO Battery Cell Technology
4.7.Key performance indicators for train battery systems
4.8.Battery Chemistry Benchmarking for Trains
4.9.Cylindrical, Prismatic, Pouch Cell Format Comparison
4.10.Shifts in Cell and Pack Design
4.11.Larger Format 4680 Cylindrical Cells
4.12.Li-ion Batteries: From Cell to Pack
4.13.Heavy Duty Battery Pack Manufacturing Trends
4.14.Battery Pack Materials
4.15.Eliminating the Battery Module
4.16.Battery Enclosure Materials Summary
4.17.Lightweighting Battery Enclosures
4.18.IDTechEx Li-ion Battery Timeline
4.19.Timeline and Outlook for Li-ion Cell Energy Densities
4.20.Li-ion Timeline Commentary
4.21.Battery System Suppliers to Rail OEMs
4.22.Rail battery pack suppliers: leaders & challengers
4.23.Rail Battery System Prices by Chemistry $/Kwh
4.24.Saft Supplies Underfloor Rail Batteries
4.25.Wabtec/General Motors ultium
4.26.BorgWarner aquires Akasol as key supplier for commercial EVs
4.27.Leclanché NMC Battery System
4.28.Leclanché Battery Life
4.29.Operational Energy Demand for Battery Sizing
4.30.Toshiba LTO Battery Rail Projects & Market
4.31.Forsee Power Target Light Rail Applications
4.32.E-Force One Developing High-Energy Battery Systems for Trains
4.33.Other Heavy-duty Li-ion Battery Pack Suppliers
4.34.Marine Batteries Directly Translatable to Rail
5.1.Fuel Cell Train Overview
5.2.Fuel Cell Train Operating Modes
5.3.Fuel Cell Energy Density Advantage
5.4.Range Advantage for Fuel Cell Trains
5.5.Rail Fuel Cell Suppliers
5.6.Hydrogen Rail History
5.7.FC Multiple Unit Summary
5.8.Orders for Fuel Cell Electric Multiple Units
5.9.Production Model FC multiple unit Specifications
5.10.FC multiple unit Orders by OEM
5.11.Deployment Schedule for FC multiple unit Orders
5.12.Fuel Cell Passenger Train list
5.13.Alstom leading the way in FC multiple unit orders
5.14.Alstom Coradia iLint Schematic
5.15.Cummins Fuel Cell Supplier to Alstom
5.16.Alstom: Additional Fuel Cell Train Projects (1)
5.17.Alstom: Additional Fuel Cell Train Projects (2)
5.18.Coradia iLint CO2 Emission Reduction
5.19.Alstom Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure
5.20.Ballard Motive Solutions
5.21.HydroFLEX Tri-Mode Multiple Unit
5.22.CAF / Toyota FCH2RAIL Project
5.23.CAF / Toyota FCH2RAIL FC multiple unit Demonstrator
5.24.Hitachi HYBARI Fuel Cell Demonstrator
5.25.Stadler FLIRT H2
5.26.Stadler FLIRT H2 Schematic
5.27.Stadler FLIRT H2 Designs
5.28.Siemens Mireo Plus H
5.29.Talgo Vittal-One
5.30.Other FC multiple unit Projects
5.31.CRRC Hydrogen City Train
5.32.FC Locomotives Summary
5.33.Fuel Cell Passenger Train Development
5.34.Alstom Dual Mode Electric H2 Locomotive
5.35.Canadian Pacific H2 Line-haul Locomotive
5.36.US Partnerships to Develop H2 Locos
5.37.BNSF Hydrogen Switcher Locomotive
5.38.Sierra Northern Railway: H2 Switcher
5.39.CRRC H2 Hybrid Shunter Locomotive
6.1.Fuel Cell Technology Benchmarking for Rail
6.2.PEMFC Working Principle
6.3.PEMFC Assembly and Materials
6.4.High-temperature (HT) PEMFC
6.5.Role of the Gas Diffusion Layer
6.6.GDL Latest Research: Dual Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Behaviour
6.7.Bipolar Plates Overview
6.8.Materials for BPPs: Graphite vs Metal
6.9.Coating Choices for Metal Bpps
6.10.Water Management in the FC
6.11.Latest Developments for Bpps
6.12.Latest Academic Research for Bpps
6.13.Membrane: Purpose and Form Factor
6.14.Property Benchmarking of Proton Exchange Membranes
6.15.Market Leading Membrane Material: Nafion
6.16.Alternative Membrane Materials to Nafion
6.17.Gore Manufacture MEAs
6.18.Catalyst: Purpose and Form Factor
6.19.Trends for fuel cell catalysts
6.20.Increasing Catalytic Activity - Alternative Metals
6.21.Key Suppliers of Catalysts for Fuel Cells
6.22.Balance of Plant for PEM Fuel Cells
6.23.Heavy-duty Fuel Cell Suppliers Summary
6.24.Ballard Emerging as Key Rail Supplier
6.26.Nedstack, from Powder to Power
6.27.Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Players & Trains
6.28.Fuel Cell System Component Cost Breakdown
6.29.Heavy Duty Fuel Cell System Cost Outlook 2022-2033 ($/kW)
7.1.The Hydrogen Economy
7.2.Hydrogen Sector Decarbonisation
7.3.The Colors of Hydrogen
7.4.Quantitative Benchmarking of Low Carbon Fuels
7.5.Announced Green Hydrogen Production 2020-2030 (kT)
7.6.Green Hydrogen & Ammonia Production Comparison by 2030
7.7.The Reality: Today's H2 Pump Price
7.8.Green Hydrogen Price is High in the Long Term
7.9.Green H2 Production Cost Forecast
7.10.Green Hydrogen Price Development Forecasts
7.11.H2 Fuel Price More than Production Cost
7.12.IDTechEx H2 Production Price Analysis
7.13.Hydrogen Refuelling Projects in Europe
7.14.Hydrogen Filling Station Bremervörde
7.15.Hydrogen Refuelling Frankfurt Germany
7.16.DB H2GoesRail
7.17.Case Study: Hydrogen Costs
7.18.Transporting Hydrogen
7.19.Infrastructure for Zero-Emission Trains
8.1.Long-term Forecasting of Technologies
8.2.Forecast Methodology
8.3.Electric Train Forecast Methodology
8.4.Forecast Assumptions
8.5.FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (Unit Sales)
8.6.Battery Capacity of BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (kWh/ unit)
8.7.Battery Demand for FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (GWh)
8.8.Fuel Cell Demand from Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (GW)
8.9.FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (US$ bn)
8.10.Battery Capacity in Fuel Cell Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (kWh/ unit)
8.11.Price Forecast for FCEV & BEV Multiple Units, Shunters, Locomotives 2022-2043 (US$ mn)
9.4.Forsee Power
9.6.Cummins/hydrogenics (PEM)
9.7.Ballard (PEM)
9.8.PowerCell (PEM)
9.9.Corvus Energy (PEM)
9.10.Nedstack (PEM)
9.11.Freudenberg E-Power Systems (PEM)
9.12.Blue World Technologies (HT PEM)
9.13.Advent Technologies (HT PEM)

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Treni elettrici a batteria e celle a combustibile a idrogeno 2023-2043

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Report Statistics

Slides 209
Forecasts to 2043
Published Mar 2023
ISBN 9781915514592

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