Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

Electric Buses 2018-2038

Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

As people move to cities, car sales peak but electric bus sales rise to over $500 billion by 2028
 

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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Focus of this report
1.2.Types of bus
1.3.Population rises, cities dominate, parking unsustainable
1.4.Why adopt buses?
1.5.Why go electric?
1.5.1.Drivers of bus electrification
1.5.2.Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
1.5.3.Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
1.6.Examples of leadership: focus on pure electric now
1.7.Bus powertrain trend, value chain rewritten
1.7.1.Powertrain trend
1.7.2.Value chain rewritten
1.8.Buses 2010-2030: an industry reborn
1.9.Market drivers
1.9.1.Prosperity collides with urbanisation
1.9.2.Changes in society and technology feed off each other
1.10.Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
1.10.1.Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 number
1.10.2.Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 unit price $k
1.10.3.Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 $ billion market value
1.10.4.One possible scenario for 2018 and 2028
1.10.5.Possible scenario for pure electric bus sales by region number k in 2030
1.11.League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion: winners make buses
1.12.China buses go global: cost advantages
1.12.1.China cost advantage plotted
1.12.2.How can bus manufacturers outside China compete?
1.13.Cheaper to buy is the killer blow for adoption of pure electric buses 2022 onwards
1.14.Technologies important for buses 2018-2028
1.15.Bus technology timeline 2018-2040
1.16.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2018
1.17.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
1.18.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
1.19.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
1.20.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022
1.21.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024
1.22.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026
1.23.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2028
1.24.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030
1.25.Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
1.26.Record bus range
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Prosperity, parking and bad planning
2.2.Global situation: public transport
2.2.1.Cities lead
2.2.2.Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
2.2.3.On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus
2.3.Technology to the rescue
2.3.1.Electrification, autonomy, sharing
2.3.2.Synergy
2.3.3.Effect of four elements in 2050
2.3.4.Consistently strong policies needed regardless of setbacks
2.4.What is happening about emissions?
2.4.1.Cheating but improving
2.4.2.Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
2.5.Electric bus dynamics
2.6.Anatomy of the automotive industry
2.6.1.Global automotive production 2016
2.6.2.New Commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia
2.6.3.Global ranking of automotive manufacturers by number made 2015 OICA
2.6.4.Patchy recording of heavy bus sales shows slight growth
2.6.5.Largest bus manufacturers by number to 2015
3.CHINA ELECTRIC TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
3.1.Yutong and the story of buses in China
3.1.1.Yutong bus sales vs competition in 2015
3.1.2.Yutong positioning in 2017
3.2.China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology
3.3.Broad technical advances in electric buses in China
3.4.China large and medium bus sales 2014/2015
3.5.China hybrid bus sales and news 2014/2015
3.6.E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly
3.7.Performance in 2017 compared
3.8.Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses
3.9.China charging station and bus % subsidies
3.10.Restriction of e-bikes helps buses
3.11.BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout
3.11.1.Global rollout
4.INDIA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
4.1.Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all
4.2.India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances
5.AMERICAS TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
5.1.Latin America - large numbers
6.NORTH AMERICA
6.1.Unique mix
6.2.Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
7.EUROPE
7.1.Example of excellence: Solaris Bus and Coach Poland
7.2.Visedo PowerDRUM
7.3.ASSURED project for fast charging
7.4.BlueSG announce shuttle bus with super capacitors and flash-charging
8.SCHOOL BUSES
8.1.North America
8.1.1.Overview
8.1.2.School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
8.1.3.US school bus statistics 2016
8.1.4.USA: world's largest school bus fleet
8.1.5.ADOMANI pure electric boost - US school buses
8.1.6.Commentary
8.1.7.Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
8.1.8.Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
8.1.9.US leading school bus manufacturers
8.1.10.School bus classification and examples
8.1.11.US school bus examples
8.2.China: big potential, not much happening yet
8.3.School buses: USA and China compared
8.4.School buses: news, launches and initiatives
9.ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS FUTURE
9.1.Powertrains
9.1.1.Comparison of powertrain options
9.1.2.48V mild hybrid
9.1.3.How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form
9.1.4.Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo
9.1.5.Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes"
9.2.Value chain of hybrid buses
9.3.Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers
9.4.Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles
9.5.Structural electronics will come to buses
9.6.Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus
9.7.UITP and MB summary of bus technologies
9.8.Here come more small buses
9.9.Autonomous bus and bus-taxi
9.9.1.Overview
9.9.2.6POD concept
9.9.3.Large smart windows needed
9.10.Electric traction motors for buses in context
9.10.1.Overview
9.10.2.Example BYD
9.10.3.No differential or prop shaft
9.10.4.Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
9.10.5.New electric drivetrain from partners UQM, Eaton and Pi Innovo
9.11.Traction batteries
9.12.Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
9.13.Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
9.14.Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus
9.15.Autonomy
9.15.1.Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars
9.15.2.Hardware replaced by software & content
9.15.3.Hype curve for autonomy today
9.15.4.Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
9.15.5.Gateway autonomous bus UK
9.15.6.IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services
9.15.7.Huge scope for media
9.16.Charging the battery
9.16.1.Overview
9.16.2.Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery
9.16.3.Contactless charging
9.16.4.Qualcomm, FABRIC, Honda
9.16.5.Dynamic charging future
9.17.Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
9.18.Radical innovation
9.18.1.Transit Elevated Bus TEV: scrapped but interesting
9.18.2.Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit
9.19.Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIV
9.19.1.Disruptive
9.19.2.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
9.19.3.Energy positive large buses will come
10.90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
11.86 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS