Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

Electric Buses 2018-2038

Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

As people move to cities, car sales peak but electric bus sales rise to over $500 billion by 2028
Electric Buses Reinvented: $500 Billion Market
This report of over 190 information-packed pages is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx report on electric buses. Prepared by respected analysts, it benchmarks buses and other forms of electric vehicle and technologies to reveal the tipping points and radical innovations arriving soon. Daimler and Toyota have recently instituted crash programs on pure electric vehicles: China has done a U turn on hybrid buses that do not plug in. Implications? See the league table of largest EV makers and how more and more of them make buses. The killer blow for new vehicles is lower price up front: see when each bus type hits this.
Technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons with a unique technology roadmap for 2018-2038. Only in this report do you see the full picture of where we are headed - even to energy independent buses (one already on sale) and then energy positive buses (we propose a design). See how they will be leveraging technologies going commercial next year outside the bus industry. Learn how the bus is being reinvented as many other things from the trolley bus that works pure electric where there is no catenary to the traffic-straddling bus and many forms of road train from "Bus Rapid Transit" to "Autonomous Rail Transit" that does not use rails. Autonomy is a focus of the report, particularly explaining the design and future of the small merged car/taxi/buses being trialled - another new category.
In 2010 virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later very few will. Why? Implications for the value chain? As if that is not enough, most componentry, systems and bodywork is being radically changed. For example what comes after the monocoque body now replacing the chassis? Why is power electronics becoming more important than batteries? In this business, simply extrapolating the past is useless.
The approach is creative and predictive way beyond the blinkered view given by traditional box ticking market research. Ongoing Interviews are carried out globally by PhD level multilingual technologists. The Executive Summary and Conclusions clarifies the extreme melodrama of what is now happening. New infograms explain why car sales will peak globally and how buses benefit. Forecasts for 2018-2028 bus type and region explain major regional differences. Learn why 30 years of fuel cell bus trials continue whereas almost every type of bus is now available commercially as pure electric and hybrid without a fuel cell. Understand benefits and the future.
The Introduction explains how the move to cities boosts buses: many detailed graphs are presented. Learn efficiency of different modes in cities. Four key factors are shown to drive change in type and number of buses bought to 2040. See the issues of energy use, emissions, cost savings and progress to energy independence. See statistics for the commercial vehicle and bus business.
Chapter 3 China analyses its dominance and global rollout of electric buses. Yutong and BYD are profiled and others compared. Chapter 4 India appraises its recent decision to replace 150,000 diesel buses very quickly. Chapters 5 and 6 are Americas. Chapter 7 Europe.
Chapter 8 is School Buses: newly significant - numbers in the USA are large and, in China, potentially large. Statistics reveal many strong reasons for going autonomous. Chapter 9 is a tour de force of the technologies and their rapid change with reasons, predictions and more. Fuel cells, structural electronics, many new forms of power electronics, more motors per vehicle, autonomy, energy harvesting, supercapacitors replacing batteries, new charging options, software and services- it is all here with new examples.
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