Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

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Electric Car Technology and Forecasts 2017-2027

Hybrid and pure electric, forecasts, technology roadmaps, opportunities


This report is no longer available. Click here to view our current reports or contact us to discuss a custom report.
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Purpose and definitions
1.2.Primary conclusions
1.3.Changing the world
1.4.Relevant megatrends beyond pollution Social megatrends red. Technological megatrends blue
1.5.Why electric cars are chosen
1.6.Electric car technology choices and trends
1.6.1.End game is not as popularly portrayed
1.6.2.From range anxiety to range superiority
1.6.3.Electric car powertrain evolution
1.6.4.Key enabling technologies by powertrain
1.6.5.Increasing importance of power electronics: proliferation and enhancement
1.6.6.Global electric vehicle companies
1.7.Why have autonomy?
1.7.1.Many autonomous car trials
1.7.2.Relative importance of powertrain and autonomy hardware markets 2017-2037
1.7.3.BMW view of commoditisation of autonomous car hardware to 2021
1.8.Evolution of battery energy density and cost
1.9.No steady progress to fewer components
1.9.1.Importance of benchmarking beyond cars
1.10.Mayhem in the car market
1.10.1.Growth to collapse: pure electric and commercial prevail number K
1.10.2.Escape routes for car makers and parts suppliers facing reducing sales 2030
1.11.Market forecasts for cars and car-like vehicles
1.11.1.Car categories characterised
1.11.2.Car market dynamics by sector
1.11.3.Global forecasts by number thousand, 2017-2027
1.11.4.Global forecasts by ex-factory price $k 2017-2027
1.11.5.Global forecasts by market value $ billion 2017-2027
1.11.6.Top five EV value markets 2017 There is a strong trend towards most cars being owned by taxi operators, rental companies and employers. Already 65% of cars in China are owned by companies.
1.11.7.Top five EV value markets 2027 Not included are 48V mild hybrid cars and taxis some of which may have brief pure electric modes by then, qualifying them as EVs.
1.12.Historic market data
1.12.1.Cars 2014-6 by powertrain and region Number K
1.12.2.Light vehicle plug-in by country to Sept 2016 cumulative and annual, per person
1.12.3.NEV China and other countries 2011-2015
1.13.Other analyst's views and manufacturer targets
1.14.League table of EV manufacturers 2017 $ billion
1.15.Battery vs fuel cell assessment end 2016
1.16.Premium pure electric cars in 2017
1.17.The leaders in pure electric cars in 2017
1.18.China weeds out small EV companies, pushes big ones harder
1.19.Fuel cell vehicles enter serious production
1.20.Electric car breakeven in context in 2017-8
1.21.The saga of the future of automobile industry
1.22.Peak in overall car sales then peak in electric car sales k globally - goodbye to many things...
1.23.Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
1.24.Key enabling technologies by powertrain
1.25.Volvo Cars drops ICE only based cars by 2019. How radical is this?
1.26.XYT modular electric car
1.27.Focus on pure electric and PHEV
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What, where?
2.1.1.What are they?
2.1.2.What is the biggest applicational sector?
2.1.3.What is the end game?
2.1.4.Jargon buster
2.2.Technologies
2.2.1.Key enabling technologies are changing
2.2.2.Energy harvesting and regeneration becomes important
2.2.3.Voltages
2.3.Lessons past, present and future
2.4.Car demand: 15 year view
2.5.Examples of policy support mechanisms for plug-in electric cars
2.6.Territorial differences Cars will remain a huge business for decades and new opportunities will arise from the ashes
2.7.Huge impact of autonomous car as bus is calculated in 2017
2.8.Learnings from Electric & Hybrid Conference Germany April 2017 and others in 2017
2.8.1.Market drivers - PSA, AVL and Morgan Stanley view
2.8.2.Investment rises but car sales peak
2.8.3.Cost competitive
2.8.4.Pollution challenge
2.8.5.Session description
2.8.6.Fuel cells downplayed
2.8.7.Electrification of Daimler and PSA powertrains
2.8.8.Pure electric leveraging autonomy
2.8.9.Inductive charging and HEV gets squeezed
2.8.10.48V Mild hybrids
2.8.11.Optimisation of 48V ICE
2.8.12.Rationale for two motor generators
2.8.13.Traction motors - In wheel traction motor rationale
2.8.14.Continental rear axle twin motor drive
2.8.15.PSA twin motor PHEV
2.8.16.Batteries - Daimler view
2.8.17.Solar
2.9.Electric Vehicle News from "IDTechEx Show!" Berlin May 2017
2.10.Interview Mitsubishi Motors May 2017
2.11.Lamborghini collaborate with MIT on self powering, self healing car
3.THE CHINA CAR PHENOMENON
3.1.Largest car market, government driven
3.2.Chinese car manufacturers coming up fast
3.3.Car market drivers in China Gao Feng Advisory Company commented as follows at the Electric & Hybrid EV Show Michigan 13.9.16
3.3.1.Growth easing
3.3.2.Reinventing propulsion
3.3.3.New Energy Vehicles NEV
3.3.4.Battery Electric Vehicle and PHEV models planned
3.3.5.Government targets, influences, new value chain
3.4.U turn on hybrids HEV that do not plug in
3.5.Types of car manufacturing competitor
4.CAR POWERTRAINS
4.1.Overview: from range anxiety to range superiority
4.2.Choosing car powertrains
4.3.Influence of new ownership and business models
4.3.1.Ownership changes affect powertrains
4.4.Impact of autonomous driving on powertrains
4.5.Future powertrain options
4.6.Where cars are headed in 2030
4.7.Common enablers
4.8.Powertrain parameter priorities
4.9.Disruptive and incremental change
4.10.Death of the strong hybrid HEV that does not plug in?
4.11.Car manufacturer powertrain priorities 2016-2030
4.12.Primary trends powertrains 2017-2037
4.12.1.Overview by type
4.12.2.Sequence of electrification of powertrains
4.12.3.Base solutions with performance variants
4.13.Powertrain timeline 2016-2036
4.14.Car low carbon technology roadmap
4.14.1.Automotive Council UK roadmaps
4.14.2.Motorsport as an indicator of what may enter general use later
4.14.3.Influence of legislation - examples
4.14.4.Mild hybrid history
4.14.5.Existing 12V cars had almost run out of development potential
4.14.6.Evolution from stop-start to multifunctional rotating machines
4.14.7.How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car
4.14.8.Different views concerning dual 12V + 48V systems expressed in our 2016 interviews and events
4.14.9.Heart of a 48V mild hybrid: popular starting point
4.14.10.Belt drive Jaguar Land Rover
4.14.11.ADEPT integrated starter generator project finished mid 2016
4.14.12.Two REM: SuperGen
4.14.13.Bottom line for 48V mild hybrid powertrain
5.STRONG HYBRID ELECTRIC POWERTRAINS
5.1.Strong "Full" Hybrid Electric Vehicles
5.2.Strong hybrid configurations
5.3.PHEV models then pure electric PEV
5.4.Series hybrid
5.5.Parallel hybrid
5.6.Some series and parallel hybrid variants
5.7.Toyota viewpoint
5.8.Plug in option: Porsche assessment
5.8.1.Example Peugeot 2016
5.9.Comparison of storage and range extender options
5.10.Range extenders in context
5.11.Fuel cells for traction
5.11.1.Fuel cell vehicle system
5.11.2.Fuel cell systems: size and refuelling
5.11.3.Fuel cell car prospects
5.12.Gas turbines, rotary combustion, free piston range extenders
6.PURE ELECTRIC VEHICLE PEV
6.1.Architecture
6.2.Powertrain: Peugeot
6.3.Nissan, Renault, Tesla, Volkswagen and trends
6.4.Ariel Electric Car
6.5.Trend in number and position of traction motors.
6.6.Energy storage issues
6.6.1.Traction battery
6.6.2.Battery Management System
6.6.3.Supercapacitor issues
6.7.Charging
7.ENERGY INDEPENDENT CARS
7.1.EIV operational choices
7.2.Key EIV technologies
7.2.1.EIV technology past, present and concept on land
7.3.Hanergy EIV cars in 2020 with GaAs photovoltaics
7.4.Immortus EIV car Australia
7.5.Stella Lux passenger car Netherlands
7.6.Car-like commercial EIV shows the way: IFEVS EIV pizza van self-powers travel, oven, lighting
7.7.Car-like Lizard tourist bus shows the way
8.SOME OF THE KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
8.1.The key enabling technologies are changing
8.1.1.Overview
8.1.2.Voltage trends
8.2.New electric powertrains will often be more complex
8.3.Energy storage
8.3.1.Rapid change
8.3.2.Rated power vs energy stored by technology
8.3.3.The role of energy storage technologies in electric vehicles
8.3.4.Comparison of energy storage options and configurations
8.3.5.EV battery impact
8.3.6.EV lithium battery pack price to 2030
8.3.7.Lithium-ion traction battery chemistry preferences
8.3.8.Forecasts of energy density by type 2016-2028
8.3.9.Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
8.3.10.Safety Warning
9.ROTATING ELECTRICAL MACHINES AND THEIR CONTROLS
9.1.Jargon buster
9.2.Typical electric car powertrain components and needs
9.2.1.Toyota compact car powertrain
9.2.2.Differences in need
9.3.Great improvements in traction motors with their controls are both needed and possible
9.4.Move to integration including in-wheel
9.4.1.Volkswagen approach to integration
9.4.2.Examples of trend to product integration: Protean, Toyota
9.4.3.Porsche view
9.4.4.UQM, Eaton and Pi Innovo
9.4.5.Eat or be eaten
9.5.Car motor systems for wider application/ volume
9.6.REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
9.7.Toyota: Big Gains from Downsizing PM Motor for 2016-7 models
9.8.Move to more than one REM per car
9.8.1.Tesla, Mitsubishi
9.8.2.Reasons for multimotor trend Audi, Toyota, IFEVS
9.8.3.Oerlikon, IAV, Xtrac, Borg Warner, GKN, Yasa Motors
9.9.Effect of move to plug-in EVs: Porsche analysis
9.10.Technology choices
9.10.1.Technology preference by type of vehicle
9.10.2.Trend to high voltage, high speed motors
9.10.3.IDTechEx survey of 157 traction motor manufacturers: trends
9.10.4.Electric motor market dynamics
10.ENERGY HARVESTING INCLUDING REGENERATION
10.1.Energy harvesting: the new key enabling technology
10.2.Features of energy harvesting
10.3.Market drivers for energy harvesting
10.4.EH transducer options compared for all applications
10.5.Energy harvesting choices increase for cars
10.6.EH technology choice by intermittent power generated
10.7.EH transducer readiness compared: external vs regen
10.8.Experimental EH transducer options compared with the four winners so far
10.9.Powerful new EH inputs handled even with 48V Mild Hybrid
11.MEGATREND: STRUCTURAL ELECTRONICS
12.AUTONOMY TECHNOLOGIES
12.1.Terminology
12.2.Demand for autonomous cars
12.2.1.Commercial hire and taxi
12.2.2.Autonomous private cars?
12.2.3.Cost
12.2.4.First-ever public trial of a robo-taxi service
12.2.5.Hype curve for autonomy today
12.3.Convergence of technologies and new challenges
12.3.1.Overview
12.3.2.Legal issues BMW view
12.3.3.Operational challenges
12.3.4.Technical challenges, open platforms Delphi BMW
12.3.5.Ethical challenges
12.3.6.Insurance challenges
12.4.Technology of autonomous cars: Delphi Tesla Mobileye
12.4.1.Overview
12.4.2.Typical toolkit for car autonomy
12.4.3.Testing Google Delphi Mobileye Bosch Gateway
12.4.4.Simplifying the
12.4.5.Software vs hardware trends to 2030
12.4.6.Automated Driver Assistance ADAS route to Autonomy
12.4.7.Processing capability, limitation, sensor fusion
12.5.LIDAR RADAR camera compared
12.5.1.Comparing LIDAR, radar and camera performance
12.5.2.Mercedes: Radar and camera converge to biomimetic
12.5.3.LIDAR evolution
12.6.Current players in car autonomy