Electric Two-wheelers 2021-2041

While in the US and Europe the primary form of urban mobility is the car, in East Asia the dominant form of transportation is the motorcycle, which is much cheaper to own and run. Motorcycles are not always held to equivalent emissions standards as cars and can be highly polluting. In the past decade, India has overtaken China to become the world's largest motorcycle market, selling roughly 17 million in fiscal year 2020 in a global market of 57 million. It is no coincidence that India has seven out of the world's top ten most polluting cities. When we hear ambitious electrification targets from countries like India, it not the electrification of cars, but that of two-wheelers, micro-mobility and public transport which is the primary focus.

 

 

 

 

This report addresses and forecasts two-wheelers with pure electric modes under 4kW ('electric scooters') and over 4kW ('electric motorcycles'). While cosmetic or functional differences can exist for two-wheelers under 4kW, they belong to the same class if they have pure electric modes and travel under 45kmph. This category is distinct from pedal-assist bicycles (pedelecs), not included here, which typically have 250W motors activated only by pedalling action (popular in Europe).

 

The average price for the electric scooter is roughly the equivalent of $420 and $850 in China and India, respectively, the two largest markets. In contrast, European models are typically sold for a few thousand dollars. In Asia, the trend is for electric moto makers to design and sell two-wheelers at upfront price parity by downsizing the batteries and sacrificing range. As battery costs fall for two-wheelers, it is performance that increases, rather than upfront price decreasing. Generally, the opposite is true in the US and Europe.

 

For electric motorcycles, the addressable markets are not high-volume urban environments in Asia. It is instead environmentally conscious moto enthusiasts curious to try electric models out, perhaps whilst keeping a Harley Davidson safe in the garage. Users of > 250cc motorcycles are declining in the US and Europe, and the electric motorcycle market is made up of only a small number of players. In the US, motorcycles are not driven because they meet a core mobility need: the king of mobility in the US is the car, which most can afford and choose as their primary transport mode above all else. Indeed, motorcycles in the US are predominantly ridden for enjoyment and as part of a lifestyle choice; this in turn makes it harder to sell the electric motorcycle, because of the nostalgia and lifestyle associated with 'loud pipes'.

 

The report further looks at the core technologies enabling electric two-wheelers. There is a general transition away from lead-acid batteries for two-wheelers in Asia, which currently dominate for low cost but are highly toxic and not disposed of safely. With the transition to Li-ion comes challenges in countries like India because of the high temperatures of 45 degrees C in the summer, and the culture to leave vehicles parked out in the hot sun when charging or residing at home or work. Market leaders are working with battery suppliers to design chemistries to help solve this issue.

 

The report also addresses electric traction motor technologies; here solutions vary dramatically from custom, innovative permanent magnet synchronous motors designed in California, to off the shelf brushless DC solutions made and imported from China.

 

 

 

Forecast regions are China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, EU + UK, US, RoW.

Power classes are < 4kW (electric scooters) and > 4kW (electric motorcycles).

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