Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

Electric vehicles will be a $1.1 trillion market by 2028

Electric Vehicles 2018-2038: Forecasts, Analysis and Opportunities

Forecasts and assessment of 46 vehicle categories including land, water and airborne; hybrid and pure electric


 
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Definitions
1.2.EVs will change the world
1.3.Megatrends affected by and affecting EV markets
1.4.Why EVs are chosen
1.4.1.Examples of market pull
1.4.2.Examples of market push:
1.4.3.Some reasons for buying electric vehicles by type
1.5.The size of the business opportunity is larger than realised
1.6.No steady progress to fewer components
1.7.Good and bad strategies
1.8.The end game is not as popularly portrayed
1.9.Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
1.10.Mayhem in the car market: number K
1.11.Progression of vehicle powertrain electrification
1.11.1.The future is electrification
1.11.2.From range anxiety to range superiority
1.11.3.Key enabling technologies by powertrain
1.11.4.Relative importance of powertrain and autonomy hardware markets 2018-2038
1.12.Cheaper to buy is the killer blow
1.13.Very different cost structures across the world: watch buses and cars
1.14.Evolution of battery energy density and cost
1.15.Market forecasts in 46 categories
1.15.1.The 46 categories characterised
1.15.2.Global forecasts by number 2018-2028
1.15.3.Global forecasts by ex-factory unit value 2018-2028
1.15.4.Global forecasts by total market value 2018-2028
1.15.5.Top five EV value markets 2018
1.15.6.Top five EV value markets 2028
1.15.7.Cars 2014-6 by powertrain and region Number K
1.16.League table of EV manufacturers 2017 $ billion
1.17.EV manufacturer numbers by sector showing where most are profitable
1.18.Milestone in 2017
1.19.The leaders in pure electric cars in 2017
1.20.World's first autonomous and zero emissions ship
1.21.Unintended consequences advance electric car take-off
1.22.Fuel cell vehicles enter serious production
1.23.Electric car breakeven in context in 2017-8
1.23.1.The saga of the future of automobile industry
1.23.2.Peak in overall car sales then peak in electric car sales k globally - goodbye to many things
1.23.3.Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
1.23.4.Key enabling technologies by powertrain
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What, where?
2.1.1.What are they
2.1.2.What is the biggest applicational sector?
2.1.3.What is the end game?
2.1.4.Jargon buster
2.2.How are they made?
2.2.1.Key enabling technologies are changing
2.2.2.Energy harvesting and regeneration becomes important
2.2.3.Examples of powerful sources of on-board electricity for EVs, actual and potential
2.2.4.Voltages
2.3.Lessons past, present and future
2.4.On-road Plug-in EV sales to 2015
2.5.The largest value market for e-cars
2.6.The China phenomenon
2.6.1.Largest car, bus and e-bus market 2017
2.6.2.Market drivers in China
2.6.3.Targets, influences, new value chain in China
2.7.EV end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
2.7.1.Round the world on sunshine
2.7.2.Key EIV technologies
2.8.Huge impact of autonomous car as bus is calculated in 2017
2.9.China weeds out small EV companies, pushes big ones harder
2.10.Assessments by the EV industry
2.10.1.Market drivers - PSA, AVL and Morgan Stanley view
2.10.2.Investment rises but car sales peak
2.10.3.Cost competitive
2.10.4.Pollution challenge
2.10.5.Session description
2.10.6.Fuel cells downplayed
2.10.7.Electrification of Daimler and PSA powertrains
2.10.8.Pure electric leveraging autonomy
2.10.9.Inductive charging and HEV gets squeezed
2.10.10.48V Mild hybrids
2.10.11.Optimisation of 48V ICE
2.10.12.Rationale for two motor generators
2.10.13.Traction motors - In wheel traction motor rationale
3.INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
3.1.Introduction
3.2.Market dynamics
3.2.1.Buses biggest sub-sector
3.2.2.Material handling/ intralogistics next biggest sub-sector for now
3.2.3.Innovation usually before cars because up-front cost not as critical
3.3.Buses trends
3.3.1.Powertrain evolution
3.3.2.Small buses and delivery trucks
3.4.Rocketing sales of plug-in buses in China (PEV+PHEV)
3.5.Progress of Yutong, global market leader and its opinion
3.6.Small commercial and industrial vehicles innovate
3.6.1.IFEVS EIV pizza van self-powers travel, oven, lighting
3.7.Trucks and school buses
3.8.Energy Independent Industrial and Commercial vehicles
3.8.1.Lizard tourist bus
3.8.2.Solar Ship EIV helium inflatable fixed wing aircraft Canada autonomous, sun alone
3.9.League tables of manufacturers
3.9.1.Industrial forklift league table with acquisitions
3.9.2.Chinese bus sales league table
3.10.Tesla Semi: off grid charging vital for payback
4.ELECTRIC CARS
4.1.Car demand: 15 year view
4.2.Chinese car manufacturers coming up fast
4.3.Examples of policy support mechanisms for plug-in electric cars 2015
4.4.Autonomous cars are best when they are electric
4.4.1.Demand for autonomous cars
4.5.The attack on the car
4.6.Market figures 2015-6 Cars will remain a huge business for decades and new opportunities will arise from the ashes
5.MICRO EVS, E-BIKES, E-SCOOTERS, E-MOTORBIKES, MOBILITY FOR DISABLED
5.1.Commonality and classification
5.2.Parameters by category
5.3.Many types of micro EV and two wheeler
5.4.Terra Motors: superb market knowledge and unique approach
5.5.Many other examples, recent news
5.6.Toyota MicroEV: targetting 300K in Europe for postal deliveries
5.7.Mobility for the disabled
5.7.1.Overview
5.7.2.The demographic time-bomb
5.7.3.Sub types and latest innovations
5.8.These types as Energy Independent Vehicles EIV: microbus, power chair, delivery e-bike, agrobot, microcar
6.MARINE EVS
6.1.Overview
6.2.Marine EV categories
6.3.Favoured trends for marine EV technologies
6.4.Other benefits of marine EVs
6.5.Examples of marine EV making new things possible
6.6.Large emission from marine vessels
6.7.Government regulations for the marine industry
6.8.Key drivers for electrification of marine vessels
6.9.Electrification in action - Fuel Cell Propulsion
6.10.Conclusions and outlook
7.7. MANNED ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT
7.1.Why go electric for manned aircraft?
7.2.How to transition to electric aircraft: MEA, hybrid, pure electric
7.3.MEA issues and opportunities
7.4.Where electric aircraft are headed: range anxiety to range superiority
7.5.Manned aircraft lagged land-based electric vehicles
7.5.1.Great achievements
7.5.2.Little business
7.5.3.Hybrids should have been first
7.5.4.Hybrids: running before you can walk
7.6.Trend to larger electric aircraft
7.6.1.Overview of major issues
7.6.2.Viability of pure electric larger aircraft: timeline
7.7.Electrification of aircraft in general: rapid progress
7.8.Electric aircraft already commercialised
7.8.1.Examples
7.8.2.Viability of electric primary trainers already
7.9.Routes to further commercialisation of electric aircraft
7.10.Pure electric manned aircraft arriving
7.11.Hybrid electric aircraft arriving
7.11.1.HYPSTAIR powertrain for general aviation
7.11.2.Hybrid electric helicopters, mullticopters
7.11.3.Airbus eThrust concept with DEP
7.11.4.NASA Sceptor concept with DEP
7.12.Flying cars: needed or possible?
7.12.1.Flying cars using airports
7.12.2.Only single seat is viable?
7.12.3.Combatting urban gridlock: better alternatives
7.12.4.Hybrid VTOL flying car feasibility
7.13.Choice of powertrains is influenced by many factors
7.14.New end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
7.15.Key enabling technologies in future: examples
7.15.1.Energy harvesting including regeneration
7.15.2.Structural electronics tears up the rule book
7.15.3.Power electronics and other key enablers
7.16.Less mechanics: more electronics
7.17.Becoming one business land, water, air - hybrid and pure electric
7.18.Regulations have impeded small e-aircraft in the USA
7.19.Ambition and freedom in Europe
7.20.Progress in East Asia
7.20.1.China
7.20.2.Japan
7.21.Market forecasts
7.21.1.Timelines 2016-2031: IDTechEx, Airbus, Rolls Royce, others
7.21.2.Rolls Royce timeline
7.21.3.MEA target and roadmaps converge to EV for 2035
8.ELECTRIC DRONES: UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES (UAVS)
8.1.Definition
8.2.Types of drone - toy/ personal electric
8.3.Types of drone - other small electric
8.4.Benefits and issues
8.5.How does it impact society?
8.6.Civil drone applications
8.7.Most successful pure electric UAV
8.8.All parts subject to disruptive change
9.SOME OF THE KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
9.1.The key enabling technologies are changing
9.2.New electric powertrains will often be more complex
9.3.Energy storage
9.3.1.Rapid change
9.3.2.Rated power vs energy stored by technology
9.3.3.The role of energy storage technologies in electric vehicles
9.3.4.EV battery impact
9.3.5.EV lithium battery pack price to 2030
9.3.6.Lithium-ion traction battery chemistry preferences
9.3.7.New Li technology maturity per market segment
9.4.Forecasts of energy density by type 2016 - 2028
9.5.Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
9.6.Safety Warning
9.7.Fuel cells
9.7.1.Basics
9.7.2.Credibility
9.7.3.Where is fuel cell success?
9.7.4.The keenest countries
9.7.5.Challenges and future
9.8.Rotating Electrical Machines and their controls
9.8.1.Jargon buster
9.8.2.Great improvements in traction motors with their controls are both needed and possible
9.8.3.REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
9.8.4.Toyota: Big Gains from Downsizing PM Motor for 2016-7 models
9.8.5.One business land, water, air - hybrid and pure electric
9.8.6.Move to more than one REM per EV
9.8.7.Move to integration - Volkswagen approach to device integration
9.8.8.Effect of move to plug-in EVs
9.8.9.Race for lightweight electric aircraft motors
9.8.10.Technology choices
9.9.Energy harvesting including regeneration
9.9.1.Harvesting for on-road vehicles
9.9.2.Harvesting for marine vehicles
9.9.3.Harvesting for air vehicles

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-Slides394
-Forecasts to2028
-Last updateOct 2018
 

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