Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

The only up-to-date report on the largest electric vehicle sector today

Industrial and Commercial Electric Vehicles on Land 2017-2027

Material Handling, Construction, Agriculture, Mining, Lawn Care, Taxis etc


 
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Dominant electric commercial vehicle types and influences change
1.2.Market forecasts
1.3.IDTechEx forecast for industrial and commercial vehicles 2017-2027
1.3.1.Forecasts for all industrial and commercial electric vehicles
1.3.2.Mining and agriculture
1.3.3.Construction market
1.3.4.Lawncare machinery evolution
1.4.Latest progress
1.5.Examples of new industrial and commercial vehicles and projects announced in 2016
1.5.1.Powertrain choices change radically
1.6.Electrical machine systems take more cost, batteries less
1.7.The elephant in the room: conventional vehicles
1.8.News in 2017
1.8.1.Electric trucks reinvented in 2017
1.8.2.BYD truck in 2017
1.8.3.Workhorse pick-up truck - 2017
1.8.4.Siemens to electrify highway 2017
1.8.5.Cummins fully electric tractor 2017
1.8.6.aCar 2017
1.8.7.World's largest EV announced late 2017
1.9.Buses will be taxis will be buses
1.10.Powertrain situation in 2017
1.10.1.Leaders of change, move to hybrids
1.10.2.Move to 48V mild hybrids
1.10.3.Move to autonomy
1.10.4.Volvo electrification of mining vehicles
1.10.5.Volvo first in the world with self-driving truck in underground mine
1.10.6.Forklifts change little
1.10.7.The boat that climbs mountains: Vanquisher coming soon
1.11.Profile: Cummins
1.12.News in 2018
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Urban logistics trends
2.2.Technology disagreement
2.3.The special case of China
2.3.1.Pollution control is urgent
2.3.2.Particulate matter - China the worst
2.3.3.Inadequate roads and parking
2.3.4.Example of action BYD
2.3.5.BYD begins expansion of manufacturing facility - September 2016
2.4.Biggest EV?
2.5.Different strategies
2.6.Battery Vehicle Work Rounds for Very Long Range
2.6.1.Light truck with fuel cell, battery and supercapacitor
2.7.Reusable electric powertrain
2.8.Here come the tougher emissions regulations
2.9.Cars are often fleets not private
2.10.US Postal Service 180,000 vehicles
2.11.Deutsche Post expands StreetScooter production - April 2017
2.12.Example: UK commercial vehicle clean-up 2017 onwards
2.13.Legal pressures increase.
3.LESSONS FROM RECENT CONFERENCES
3.1.Overview
3.2.Hydraulic vs electric efficiency
3.3.Market forecasts
3.4.Powertrain trends
3.5.Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
3.6.Projects and new industrial EVs
3.7.Wheel loaders
3.7.1.Hitachi
3.7.2.Oerlikon
3.7.3.HUDIG TIGON hybrid excavator and wheel loader
3.7.4.John Deere
3.7.5.Volvo Group
3.8.Star of the show
3.8.1.Future dreams!
3.9.Components and systems
3.9.1.Power electronics
3.10.Energy storage
3.10.1.Lithium Sulfur batteries
3.10.2.Motors
3.10.3.User needs and benefits
4.MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
4.1.Trends
4.2.Advantages of electric commercial vehicles
5.HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS
5.1.What is included
5.2.Challenges
5.3.Forklifts
5.3.1.Small forklift success
5.3.2.Rapid move to lithium-ion batteries
5.3.3.A look at many FC forklifts across the world
5.3.4.Plug Power transforms the industry
5.3.5.Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT
5.3.6.Forklift market analysis
5.3.7.FC material handling fleets and standards
5.3.8.Market analysis
5.3.9.FC material handling fleets and standards
5.4.Listing of manufacturers
5.4.1.Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck
5.4.2.Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs
5.4.3.Hyster electric double reefer handling
6.LIGHT INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL EVS
6.1.Introduction
6.1.1.Overview
6.1.2.One quarter of commercial vehicles in Germany can be electric now?
6.2.Sub categories
6.3.Local services
6.4.Airport EVs
6.4.1.Overview
6.4.2.GSE by airline and airport
6.4.3.Here come hybrids
6.4.4.US incentives
6.4.5.Overall market
6.4.6.Airport applications widen
6.4.7.Sea-Tac Airport 2014-2018
6.5.Small people-movers
6.6.Chrysler minivan in 2015
6.7.Dong Feng China big minivan order
6.8.Kargo Canada
6.9.Light industrial
6.10.All-terrain vehicles for commercial use
6.11.Listing of manufacturers
7.BUSES AND TRUCKS
7.1.Introduction
7.2.Summary of technical preferences
7.3.Statistics issues
7.4.Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market
7.5.Chinese price/performance
7.6.Cost trends - China ready to pounce
7.7.Market drivers and impediments
7.8.Regional differences
7.9.China, India and cities
7.10.Radical change
7.11.Truly global market for similar buses
7.12.Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5
7.13.Weak trend to larger buses but not in China
7.14.Value chain and powertrain
7.15.Hybrids becoming pure electric
7.16.Relative importance of technical options
7.17.Technology disagreement
7.18.Fuel cell buses: progress and potential
7.18.1.Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses
7.19.Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general
7.19.1.Automotive industry
7.19.2.School buses
7.19.3.Largest bus manufacturers
7.20.E-bus news from 2016
7.21.Trucks
7.21.1.Which Electric Truck Powertrain Wins?
7.21.2.Medium and heavy duty trucks
7.21.3.Travel through Munich in a vehicle that is 100% electric, clean, quiet
7.21.4.Mack Trucks to Evaluate Wrightspeed Route Powertrain in Mack LR Model
7.21.5.Argonne to lead consortium for new CERC medium- and heavy-duty truck technical track
7.21.6.Daimler plan heavy duty trucks
7.21.7.Fuel cell truck
7.21.8.Volvo first in the world with self-driving truck in underground mine
7.21.9.BMW i supply agreement with Workhorse Group
7.22.Tesla Semi: off grid charging vital for payback
7.23.Enride autonomous truck
8.TAXIS
8.1.Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan
8.1.1.China in 2017
8.1.2.Turkey in 2017
8.2.Huge order from the Philippines?
8.3.Fuel cell taxis Korea
8.4.Terra Motors Interview Tokyo September 2015
8.4.1.Introduction
8.4.2.Latest market appraisal
8.4.3.View of India
8.4.4.View of Bangladesh
8.4.5.View of Vietnam
8.4.6.View of Philippines
8.4.7.View of Japan
8.4.8.IDTechEx conclusion
9.THREE WHEEL COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
9.1.Background
9.2.Three wheelers as crossover products
9.3.Operational benefit of three wheel
9.3.1.Introduction
9.3.2.Low cost three wheel vehicle market
9.3.3.The Indian three wheel market - the largest globally
9.3.4.Electric three wheeler penetration
10.ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING
10.1.Overview
10.2.Value proposition and environmental restrictions
10.3.Autonomous vehicles for agriculture and mining
10.4.Energy and work synchronization in mining
10.5.Light manned vehicles - PapaBravo Canada
10.6.Examples of cranes and lifters
10.7.Caterpillar and Komatsu: energy harvesting on large hybrid vehicles
10.8.CALSTART partnerships
10.9.Other electrification of large vehicles
10.9.1.Breakthrough Huddig hybrid wheel loader in 2018
11.KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
11.1.Types of electric vehicle
11.2.Many fuels
11.3.Born electric
11.4.Pure electric vehicles are improving
11.5.Series vs parallel hybrid
11.6.Modes of operation of hybrids
11.6.1.Plug in hybrids
11.6.2.Charge-depleting mode
11.6.3.Blended mode
11.6.4.Charge-sustaining mode
11.6.5.Mixed mode
11.7.Microhybrid is a misnomer
11.8.Deep hybridisation
11.9.Hybrid vehicle price premium
11.10.Battery cost and performance are key
11.11.Trade-off of energy storage technologies
11.12.Ultracapacitors = supercapacitors
11.12.1.Where supercapacitors fit in
11.12.2.Advantages and disadvantages
11.12.3.Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
11.12.4.Supercapacitors - a work round for troublesome batteries
11.12.5.Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors
11.13.Range extenders
11.13.1.What will be required of a range extender?
11.13.2.Three generations of range extender
11.13.3.Fuel cell range extenders
11.13.4.Single cylinder range extenders
11.14.Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
11.15.Energy harvesting
11.16.Trend to high voltage
11.17.Structural components
11.18.Trend to distributed components
11.19.Trend to flatness then smart skin
11.20.Traction batteries
11.20.1.After the shakeout in car traction batteries
11.20.2.The needs have radically changed
11.20.3.It started with cobalt
11.20.4.Great variety of recipes
11.20.5.Other factors
11.20.6.Check with reality
11.20.7.Lithium winners today and soon
11.20.8.Reasons for winning
11.20.9.Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
11.20.10.Winning chemistry
11.20.11.Titanate establishes a place
11.20.12.Laminar structure
11.20.13.Niche winners
11.20.14.Fluid situation
11.21.Traction motors
11.21.1.Overview
11.21.2.Examples of motors in action
11.22.Power electronics
APPENDIX - ELECTRIC AND HYBRID ELECTRIC NON-ROAD EVS NOW AND IN FUTURE
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1.Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2017-2027
1.2.Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2017-2027
1.3.Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2017-2027
2.1.Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
4.1.Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
4.2.Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric versions
4.3.Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles
5.1.27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
6.1.150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
7.1.Market for conventional diesel buses, hybrid and pure electric buses > 8t by rationale, end game in green
7.2.Price spread $K of buses >8t by region and technology 2012 and 2015, with exceptional prices excluded. High priced market red. Low priced market green. Significant price decrease bright green.
7.3.Market drivers and impediments are summarised below.
7.4.Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
7.5.Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth. Green shows strongest market drivers
7.6.League table of EV traction battery manufacturers mWh
7.7.The typical chassis-plus-body value chain of hybrid buses 2015. Main added value shown in green
7.8.Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus
7.9.Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus with structural electronics
7.10.Some of the main technological options compared
7.11.Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
7.12.Some of the factors increasing pure electric bus range 2017-2027
7.13.e-bus drive train technology options compared, with commercially problematic issues highlighted
7.14.2012 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country from OICA correspondents' survey
7.15.Second quarter YTD 2014 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country
7.16.School bus statistics for USA and China 2015
7.17.First half sales by country for commercial vehicles CV 2013/3/4
7.18.Top five bus manufacturers 2005, 2011, 2015, Chinese in red, with output number of buses >8t
7.19.Domestic bus sales in China in October 2014
7.20.Rank of automotive manufacturers by production in 2013. LCV includes Minibuses," derived from light commercial vehicles, are used for the transport of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat a
7.21.Examples of E-bus news in 2016 with IDTechEx comment
8.1.19 projects testing pure electric taxis
9.1.Domestic sales by category in India
9.2.Planned Deployment of Electric 3 wheelers in India
11.1.Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
11.2.Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
11.3.Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
11.4.Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020, examples of suppliers and trends
11.5.What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
11.6.Over 450 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
11.7.68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor details.
11.8.Examples of electronics and electrics replacing mechanical parts in electric vehicles.
11.9.Examples of cost reduction of electrics/ electronics by radical alternatives.
FIGURES
1.1.Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2017-2027
1.2.Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2017-2027
1.3.Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2017-2027
1.4.Eclipse 322 showing powertrain lead acid battery bank for performance improvement on the left and start/ light lead acid battery right.
1.5.Japanese strawberry picking robot
1.6.The Wall-Ye V.I.N. robot created by Christophe Millot and Guy Julien, picks grapes in a vineyard
1.7.Daimler is developing the Mercedes-Benz Future Truck 2025, an autonomous vehicle for on-road goods transport.
1.8.Peloton Technology
1.9.Domino's Pizza Enterprises announced its experimental DRU autonomous pizza delivery robot
1.10.Bonirob from Deepfield Robotics automates and speeds up analysis.
1.11.'Dancer bus' is a project by JSC 'vėjo projektai'
1.12.Citaro will hit the market as an E-Cell (BEV), as well as a F-Cell (FCV)
1.13.Volvo construction equipment electrifies. Hybrid loader and autonomous pure electric carrier
1.14.Progression of electric drive trains to energy independent pure electric thanks to on-board wind turbines, solar etc.
1.15.Some of the regeneration options and ways of harvesting ambient energy with on-board and nearby equipment.
1.16.View of Volvo Group on future of truck powertrains
1.17.48V mild hybrid commercial van
1.18.Volvo Truck Technology view of 48V mild hybrid truck opportunity
1.19.Nanowinn tourist bus
1.20.aCar prototype
1.21.Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016
1.22.Slides from Industrial Vehicle Symposium Cologne Germany November 2016
1.23.Volvo hybrid wheel loader with Volvo autonomous pure electric carrier as prototype.
1.24.Light amphibious ATVs from Advanced System Design
1.25.Diagram from Advanced System Design
1.26.Cummins view in 2017 of the future of off-road electric vehicle drivelines
1.27.BlueSG shuttle bus
2.1.Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025
2.2.Transport of people 2010-2025
2.3.LCV and urban bus usage hours
2.4.China carbon dioxide emissions vs rest of world
2.5.Green vehicles in China 2015-2020
2.6.Sales of BYD electric buses in China 2015
2.7.BYD deployment of electric taxis
2.8.BYD QIN hybrid car
2.9.Strategy of Iveco Italy in late 2014
2.10.Siemens truck charging
2.11.Siemens costings
2.12.Catenary truck charging by country
2.13.Vehicle architecture and characteristics
2.14.Effect of fuel cell on payload. Fuel cell control.
2.15.Fuel cell + supercapacitors control
2.16.Simulation comparison
2.17.Display at EVS29
2.18.Savings and benefits
2.19.Layout
2.20.Deutsche Post DHL Group StreetScooter
2.21.Press comment Germany
2.22.UK carbon dioxide emissions by origin and plan for cleaning LCVs
2.23.UK Automotive Council Energy & Fuels Consensus Roadmap
3.1.Megatrends, regulations and other market drivers
3.2.CALSTART overview
3.3.Hitachi electric construction vehicles including hydraulic and electric hybrids.
3.4.Cummins hybrid electrification example
3.5.John Deere tractor electrification
3.6.Ricardo overview
3.7.AVL forecast for industrial and commercial electric, mild hybrid and conventional vehicles including rental cars
3.8.Tiny deployment of fuel cell forklifts
3.9.Sevcon fuel cell power electronics options offered.
3.10.Some targets for hybrid powertrains
3.11.Hitachi electrification of wheel loader
3.12.Oerlikon wheel loader approach
3.13.HUDIG hybrid wheel loader
3.14.John Deere hybrid wheel loader
3.15.Volvo connecte4d machines: hybrid wheel loader with Volvo autonomous pure electric carrier as prototype and pure electric excavator.
3.16.Delphi view
3.17.Thermal management of power electronics
3.18.Lithium sulfur battery target
3.19.Ricardo traction motor overview
3.20.Konecranes using supercapacitors below
3.21.Examples of hybrid options
4.1.Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different forms of on-road passenger transport
4.2.Bus size vs fuel consumption
5.1.Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer
5.2.Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter
5.3.Heavy electric vehicle
5.4.Toyota fuel cell forklift and other fuel cell vehicles and activities
5.5.Fuel cell forklifts from across the world
5.6.Refuelling a Plug Power unit
5.7.APFCT fuel cell forklift system showing two refueller cabinets
5.8.Top 20 industrial lift truck suppliers in 2014
5.9.World industrial truck statistics/orders and shipments
6.1.Electric bus in Nepal
6.2.Kargo Light
6.3.Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics
6.4.Garbage collecting electric car
6.5.Ecovolve battery powered tip dumpers
7.1.Tata Motors CNG hybrid bus in India left and BYD K9 pure electric bus from China right that is the most widely trialled and adopted of its type
7.2.Ex-factory lowest price range of diesel, hybrid and pure electric 35-90 seat urban buses in China vs North America/ Europe 2012 and 2015. Chinese cost reduction of hybrids is obscured by move to more expensive hybrids (long range
7.3.Passenger travel by bus by region in England.
7.4.BYD articulated pure electric Lancaster bus for 120 passengers with 170 km range announced late 2014
7.5.The value chain is changing radically due to vehicle design being changed as summarised below. Ladder type hybrid bus chassis top
7.6.Structural supercapacitor as car or bus bodywork, experimental
7.7.UITP summary of technological options for buses
7.8.MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery, the favoured practice in China
7.9.EV powertrain technology roadmap
7.10.Percentage share of 92 fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 by fuel cell manufacturer
7.11.North American sales of school buses 2000-2009, total buses sold
7.12.Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013
7.13.Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013
7.14.Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013
7.15.The Nikola One has 6×6 all-wheel drive
7.16.The Extended Range Electric Vehicle EREV truck
7.17.Planned TEVA hybrid truck and JAC production line.
7.18.EDI CNG hybrid truck
7.19.The electric truck by the BMW Group and the SCHERM group
7.20.A Mack® LR® model retrofitted with the Wrightspeed Route™ 1000 powertrain
7.21.Workhorse E-Gen electric delivery vehicle
7.22.Tesla semi
8.1.Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi
8.2.BYD taxi rollouts in late 2014
8.3.BYD Qin hybrid car
8.4.The Terra Motors e-trike
8.5.E-trikes used as taxis
8.6.Logos compared
8.7.Expensive version for developed countries and basic version for undeveloped countries
9.1.Domestic market share for 2012-13
9.2.Bajaj Auto is a dealer in the manufacturing of commercial three wheel vehicles
9.3.Bajaj Affordable Three Wheel Commercial Vehicle 2014 (2,000 usd) available in Natural Gas, Liquefied Gas and Diesel versions
9.4.Electric vehicle cost breakeven
10.1.Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining
10.2.Sanyo commercial vehicle with extending solar panels for charging when stationary and mine with electric trucks using local solar and wind
10.3.Energy and work synchronization
10.4.Pure electric light mining vehicles
10.5.Bailey hybrid electric crane
10.6.Konecranes hybrid electric stacker
10.7.Pure electric manlift
10.8.Huddig hybrid wheel loader
11.1.Hybrid bus powertrain
11.2.Hybrid car powertrain using CNG
11.3.Some hybrid variants
11.4.Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
11.5.Trend to deep hybridisation
11.6.Evolution of hybrid structure
11.7.Price premium for hybrid buses
11.8.Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
11.9.Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored
11.10.Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
11.11.Comparison of battery technologies
11.12.Where supercapacitors fit in
11.13.Energy density vs power density for storage devices
11.14.Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
11.15.Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
11.16.Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
11.17.Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
11.18.The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
11.19.Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
11.20.Electric machine and ICE sub-assembly
11.21.48V Model chosen
11.22.Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
11.23.Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
11.24.Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
11.25.Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
11.26.Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
11.27.Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
11.28.Volkswagen view of the attractions of 38V
11.29.Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
11.30.Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
11.31.Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
11.32.Here comes lithium
11.33.Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.

Subscription Enquiry

X