Energy Storage Report

The market for Li-ion cells will reach $130 billion by 2028

Li-ion Batteries 2018-2028

From raw materials to new materials, through gigafactories and emerging markets

Brand new for October 2017

 
Li-ion batteries (LIB) have become a quintessential enabling technology for consumer electronics, thanks to a forward-looking intuition by Sony and other companies in the early 90's. After about a quarter of a century, they have finally come out of the portable device industry and are setting the stage for a revolution in transportation. Electric vehicles (EV), whether on land, sea, or air, are increasingly gaining market share and companies historically embedded in the combustion engine value chain are experiencing a once-in-a-century transformation of their traditional business model. EVs will turn into a $730B market by 2027, and many steps in the new value chain are up for grabs. Because of this (and to curb urban pollution), China has set up a regulatory framework from which new automotive giants like BYD, SAIC, and Microvast are emerging; the US relies on the entrepreneurship of visionaries like Elon Musk and its Tesla venture; Japan is still home to the best-selling EV brands like Toyota and Nissan; Europe, on the other hand, is heavily reconsidering its diesel-friendly policies, by pivoting around EVs and trying to retain its tradition in automotive products.
 
Within this grand scheme, LIBs play a central role, since they can make up to 50% of the total cost of an electric vehicle. Gigafactories and megafactories are being planned and built around the globe to satisfy an ever-growing market demand. At the same time, mining companies are working around the clock to expand capacity for a few key minerals, like lithium, cobalt, and graphite. In this report, IDTechEx analyses all of the above through bottom-up and top-down approaches.
 
Li-ion battery market EV (US$ billion)
 
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
  • The first part of the report is concerned with raw materials extraction, with an overview of key minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, aluminium; how critical they are for the LIB industry; and what innovations are being pursued by the incumbents.
  • The second part is focused on battery materials, both active and inactive, and how new developments will shape the market. Patent litigations, new cathode formulations, improvements in thin and flexible batteries are all included with our analysis over the disruptive potential of each one.
  • The third section explores battery manufacturing, with an extremely comprehensive list of all the operating gigafactories around the world, a list of over 140 manufacturing companies, and a comparative study divided along the lines of cathode choice, geographical location, cell format, and pursued markets.
  • The fourth part of the report is about beyond Li-ion, that is, competing energy storage technologies that can either replace Li-ion altogether or occupy significant market niches, like aircraft batteries and stationary storage. Each technology is benchmarked according to its theoretical and practical spec sheet, together with IDTechEx's view of the true potential behind the most promising innovations.
  • Finally, a list of relevant company profiles is included, to give a full overview of who's who and what are the players worth keeping an eye on. The profiles included span from mining companies, to battery material specialists, to Li-ion manufacturers, to end users, particularly in the automotive, marine, and aircraft sector.
  • It would not be an IDTechEx report without our signature 10-year forecasts, running from 2018 to 2028. The forecasts include battery deployment figures in GWh, millions of units, and market value ($B). An unparalleled level of granularity is offered by splitting LIBs over 43 EV categories (land, sea, and air EVs), as well as drones, consumer electronics, wearables, and stationary storage. The LIB market for EVs alone is predicted to reach $125B by 2028.
 
IDTechEx analysts travel around the world to key locations like Tokyo, Korea, Michigan, Germany, and the Silicon Valley to collect intelligence on the various aspects of Li-ion battery technology. The information contained in the report was gathered via primary research, company visits, phone interviews, as well as face-to-face discussions with key players at the main battery events worldwide - Battery Japan, AABC, The Battery Show, Batterieforum, and many more.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Li-ion batteries revolutionise energy availability
1.2.Why does battery innovation matter?
1.3.LIB cell cost ($/kWh) forecasts according to IDTechEx
1.4.The world is building Gigafactories
1.4.1.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 (GWh/year)
1.4.2.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 - electric vehicles
1.4.3.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 - other markets
1.5.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 ($B/year)
1.6.LIB standard chemistries in 2018, 2023, and 2028
1.7.List of industry events mentioned in this report
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What's the big deal with batteries?
2.1.1.What is energy storage and why does it matter?
2.1.2.LIB evolution over the last quarter of century
2.1.3.Prospects for Li-ion batteries
2.1.4.Challenges ahead
2.1.5.Li-ion batteries in the news
2.2.Words from Venkat Srinivasan, scientist at Argonne National Labs
3.LI-ION BASICS
3.1.What is a battery?
3.1.1.Redox reactions
3.1.2.Electrochemical reactions based on electron transfer
3.1.3.Primary (non-rechargeable) vs. secondary (rechargeable) batteries
3.1.4.Electrochemistry definitions
3.1.5.Useful charts for performance comparison
3.1.6.What does 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) look like?
3.2.Energy density in context
3.2.1.Electrochemical inactive components reduce energy density
3.2.2.Commercial battery packaging technologies
3.2.3.Comparison of commercial battery packaging technologies
3.2.4.Cooling systems for LIBs
3.3.What is a Li-ion battery (LIB)?
3.3.1.There is more than one type of LIB
3.3.2.How can LIBs be improved?
3.3.3.Push and pull factors in Li-ion research
3.3.4.The battery trilemma
3.3.5.A quote from Thomas Edison on batteries
3.3.6.Performance goes up, cost goes down
3.3.7.General Motors' view on battery prices
3.4.Safety
3.4.1.Samsung's Firegate
3.4.2.The risks of a battery-intensive future
4.LI-ION RAW MATERIALS
4.1.Batteries and thermodynamics
4.2.Lithium is not the only element in Li-ion batteries
4.2.1.The elements used in Li-ion batteries
4.2.2.Li-ion raw materials in perspective
4.2.3.Raw materials' criticality
4.2.4.The EU Critical Raw Materials List
4.2.5.Weight content of the main materials in a LIB
4.2.6.Mining supply chain model
4.3.Raw materials at AABC Europe 2017
4.4.Lithium
4.4.1.Where is lithium?
4.4.2.Primary sources for making lithium
4.4.3.Main lithium producers and lithium sources
4.4.4.Secondary sources for making lithium
4.4.5.Where is lithium used
4.4.6.Question: how much Li do we need?
4.4.7.Lithium producers - FMC
4.5.Graphite
4.5.1.From your pencil to your powertrain
4.5.2.Obtaining battery-grade graphite
4.5.3.Making synthetic graphite
4.6.Cobalt
4.6.1.Cobalt reserves and main mining companies
4.6.2.Cobalt - From ore to metal
4.6.3.Cobalt mining in the DRC
4.6.4.A timeline of public scrutiny over cobalt supply
4.6.5.Effects of artisanal mining on urban areas in the DRC
4.6.6.DRC cobalt supply chain
4.6.7.Potential artisanal cobalt stakeholders
4.6.8.The cobalt supply routes and their future
4.7.Nickel
4.7.1.Nickel, worth more than a dime
4.7.2.Nickel reserves and main mining companies
4.7.3.The Nickel Life Cycle
4.7.4.Strategic moves in nickel supply
4.8.Copper
4.8.1.Copper reserves and main mining companies
4.8.2.Copper - From ore to metal
4.8.3.Stocks and flows of copper
4.8.4.Copper content in LIBs
4.8.5.Batteries are reducing copper foil thickness
4.8.6.Electric vehicle Cu demand (in kton)
4.9.Aluminum
4.9.1.Aluminum and the value of recycling
4.9.2.From Bauxite to aluminum
4.10.Silicon
4.10.1.An element with potential
4.11.Raw materials recap
4.11.1.Raw materials recap
4.11.2.Community-related issues in the LIB raw materials supply chain
4.11.3.Li-ion battery recycling
5.LI-ION ELECTRODE MATERIALS
5.1.A family tree of batteries - Lithium-based
5.2.Anode materials
5.2.1.Anode materials - Battery-grade graphite
5.2.2.Anode alternatives - lithium metal and LTO
5.2.3.Lithium metal - Hydro-Quebec
5.2.4.LTO - Toshiba
5.2.5.Anode alternatives - other carbon materials
5.2.6.Hard carbon as additive for LIBs - Kuraray
5.2.7.Anode alternatives - silicon, tin and alloying materials
5.2.8.Silicon-dominant anodes - 3M
5.2.9.Silicon-dominant anodes - Fraunhofer
5.2.10.Silicon-dominant anodes - Enevate
5.2.11.Silicon oxide anodes - Shin-Etsu
5.2.12.Graphene's role in silicon anodes
5.3.Cathode materials
5.3.1.Standard cathode materials - LCO and LFP
5.3.2.Cathode alternatives - NCA
5.3.3.Cathode alternatives - LNMO, NMC, V2O5
5.3.4.NMC/NCM - ANL and ZSW
5.3.5.Future NMC/NCM - BASF
5.3.6.Future NMC/NCM - Umicore
5.3.7.Patent litigation over NMC/NCM - Umicore vs. BASF
5.3.8.Patent litigation - the positive example of LFP
5.3.9.Cathode recap
5.3.10.Li-ion battery cathode recap
5.3.11.New cathode materials - FDK Corporation
5.4.Increasing energy density
5.4.1.Better batteries with a wider cell voltage
5.4.2.Better batteries with a higher electrode capacity
5.4.3.Cathodes for post-Li-ion
5.5.Inactive materials
5.5.1.Inactive materials negatively affect energy density
5.6.Separators
5.6.1.Separators - polyolefins
5.6.2.Separator manufacturing
5.6.3.Polyolefin separators - Celgard
5.6.4.Ceramic coatings - Litarion, Optodot, Nabaltec
5.6.5.Ceramic coatings
5.6.6.Cellulose separators - Uppsala university
5.6.7.The LIB separator market
5.7.Current collectors
5.7.1.Current collectors
5.7.2.Porous current collectors - Nano-Nouvelle
5.8.Binders
5.8.1.Binders - aqueous vs. non-aqueous
5.8.2.Binder processing
5.8.3.Better binders - Solvay
5.8.4.Better binders - Zeon
5.8.5.Better binders - Ashland
5.9.Solvents
5.9.1.NMP vs. aqueous processing
5.10.Conductive additives
5.10.1.Conductive agents
5.10.2.Conductive agents - Imerys
5.10.3.Conductive agents - OCSiAl
5.11.Electrolytes, salts, and additives
5.11.1.Electrolytes - the solvents
5.11.2.Electrolytes - Ionic liquids
5.11.3.Electrolytes - conducting salts
5.11.4.Electrolyte additives
5.12.Solid-state electrolytes
5.12.1.Comparison between inorganic and polymer electrolytes
5.12.2.Lithium-ion batteries vs. Solid-State batteries
5.12.3.Critical aspects of solid electrolytes
5.12.4.Solid electrolytes - Toyota Motors
5.12.5.Solid electrolytes - Solvay
5.12.6.Electrolytes - Solid Power
5.12.7.Solid electrolytes - Solidenergy
5.12.8.Solid electrolytes - US Army Research Lab
5.13.Current Li-ion vs. future Li-ion
5.13.1.Ways to get above 250 Wh/kg
5.13.2.LGChem's view of future batteries
6.LI-ION MANUFACTURING
6.1.What sets the battery industry apart
6.2.Differences between cell, module, and pack
6.3.EV supply chain - not just electrochemistry
6.4.LIB manufacturing system
6.4.1.LIB manufacturing system - from cell to module
6.4.2.Battery pilot line and scale-up issues
6.4.3.The need for a dry room
6.4.4.Electrode slurry mixing
6.4.5.LIB manufacturing system - from module to pack
6.4.6.Stacking methods
6.4.7.Battery essential parameters
6.4.8.LIB manufacturing energy demand
6.4.9.What keeps production costs high
6.5.The LIB manufacturing world
6.5.1.Europe awakens as the Li-ion snowball grows
6.5.2.Old mistakes in the battery and car industries
6.5.3.Gigafactories in a wider context
6.5.4.Battery manufacturing in Germany
6.5.5.The Giga-LIB project
6.5.6.Success stories in Europe
6.5.7.Chinese Lithium-ion battery manufacturers face slump in profits
6.5.8.Battery manufacturing plants - the state of the art
6.6.The Gigafactories
6.6.1.The mirage of manufacturing
6.6.2.LGChem
6.6.3.LGChem's strategy
6.6.4.Samsung SDI
6.6.5.AESC - Nissan + NEC
6.6.6.Tesla/Panasonic
6.6.7.Tesla/Panasonic in Europe?
6.6.8.BYD
6.6.9.CATL
6.6.10.ATL vs. CATL
6.6.11.Microvast
6.6.12.Guoxuan
6.6.13.Boston Power
6.6.14.A123 Systems
6.6.15.Chinese EV battery value chain
6.6.16.Northvolt (formerly SGF Energy)
6.6.17.TerraE
6.7.The Megafactories
6.7.1.Thinking small has advantages and disadvantages
6.7.2.Electrovaya
6.7.3.Xalt Energy
6.7.4.Blue Solutions/Bolloré
6.7.5.Leclanché
6.7.6.Lithops
6.7.7.Varta Microbattery
6.7.8.Tadiran Batteries
6.7.9.BMZ
6.8.Post Li-ion technologies
6.8.1.New kids on the block
6.8.2.Oxis Energy
6.8.3.Faradion
6.9.What sets Europe apart
6.10.A map of European Li-ion (and post Li-ion) factories
7.LIST OF OVER 140 LI-ION MANUFACTURERS WORLDWIDE AND STATISTICS
7.1.Methodology
7.2.Top LIB producers in 2016 and public announcements
7.3.Geographical distribution
7.4.Cathode and anode choices
7.5.Cathode preferences by country of manufacturing
7.6.Cathode choice vs. company size and output
7.7.Cell format
7.8.LIB markets - geographical focus
8.APPLICATIONS
8.1.Overview
8.1.1.Batteries as enabling technology
8.1.2.Batteries are about energy delocalisation
8.1.3.Power range for electronic and electrical devices
8.2.EV market - automotive
8.2.1.Batteries for two- and three-wheelers
8.2.2.People going to work on e-scooters in China
8.2.3.Batteries for electric cars
8.2.4.Lack of standardisation in terms of battery packs
8.2.5.How powertrains affect Li-ion battery needs
8.2.6.Batteries for electric buses
8.2.7.Batteries for electric trucks
8.2.8.Batteries for industrial EVs
8.3.Automotive companies at AABC Europe 2017
8.3.1.Jaguar Land Rover
8.3.2.Volvo
8.3.3.Volkswagen
8.3.4.AUDI
8.3.5.Opel
8.3.6.Mercedes Benz
8.3.7.Ford Motors
8.4.Automotive companies at Battery Japan 2017
8.4.1.Nissan
8.4.2.Toyota
8.4.3.Suzuki
8.4.4.BMW
8.5.EV market - marine and aircraft
8.5.1.What does it take to make electric & hybrid marine mainstream?
8.5.2.Marine references - Corvus Energy
8.5.3.Two strategies for aircraft electrification
8.5.4.Drones - Aerosense
8.5.5.GS Yuasa supplies NASA with Li-ion batteries for the ISS
8.5.6.Uber Elevate's battery requirements for eVTOL
8.6.Stationary storage (BESS)
8.6.1.Stationary energy storage is not new
8.6.2.The increasingly important role of stationary storage
8.6.3.Li-ion is capturing market share at the expense of lead-acid
8.6.4.Is BESS an early stream of revenue for car companies?
8.6.5.Tesla Energy
8.6.6.The Korean battery giants
8.6.7.Are LIBs the best fit for BESS?
8.6.8.Stationary storage in 2015
8.6.9.Stationary storage in 2017
8.7.Other markets
8.7.1.More than batteries for powertrains
8.7.2.Consumer electronics
8.7.3.A stagnant market
8.7.4.Smartphones high growth is fading
8.7.5.Tablet markets demand could stagnate or decline
8.7.6.Laptops may not grow
8.7.7.Digital cameras are disappearing
8.7.8.Smaller batteries for consumer electronics
8.8.Wearables
8.8.1.Wearables and the first steps to bionic humans
8.8.2.Wearables suffer from bulky batteries
8.9.Internet of Things
8.9.1.Still a buzzword for some stakeholders
9.LI-ION BECOMES THIN, FLEXIBLE, STRETCHABLE
9.1.Future trends in battery for consumer electronics
9.2.Flexibility: Big giants' growing interest
9.3.Thinness is still required for now and future
9.4.Slim consumer electronics
9.5.New market: Thin batteries can help to increase the total capacity
9.6.Will modular phones be the direction of the future?
9.7.Comparison of a flexible LIB with a traditional one
9.8.Lithium-polymer flexible cells
9.9.Developers
9.9.1.Huizhou Markyn
9.9.2.Showa Denko Packaging
9.9.3.Semiconductor Energy Laboratory
9.9.4.QinetiQ
9.9.5.Leeds University UK
9.9.6.Ulsan National IST
9.9.7.Stretchable batteries that stick to the skin like a Band-Aid
9.9.8.Cable-type battery developed by LG Chem
9.9.9.Large-area multi-stacked textile battery
9.9.10.Stretchable lithium-ion battery
9.9.11.Foldable lithium-ion battery
9.9.12.Fibre-shaped lithium-ion battery
9.9.13.Fibre-shaped lithium-ion battery that can be woven into electronic textiles
9.9.14.Needle battery
9.9.15.Transparent lithium-ion battery
10.BEYOND LI-ION TECHNOLOGIES
10.1.Is Li-ion the silver bullet of batteries?
10.2.The innovation cycle
10.3.Li-ion vs. future Li-ion vs. beyond Li-ion
10.4.There are several avenues to better batteries
10.5.What is the future battery technology?
11.BENCHMARK OF LI-ION VS. OTHER TECHNOLOGIES
11.1.A family tree of batteries - Li-ion
11.2.A family tree of batteries - Non-Li-ion
11.3.Benchmarking of theoretical battery performance
11.4.Benchmarking of practical battery performance
11.5.Battery technology benchmark - Comparison chart
11.6.Battery technology benchmark - open challenges
12.MARKET FORECASTS
12.1.LIB market trends 2018-2028
12.2.Market size by GWh/year
12.2.1.2018-2028 forecasts - mainstream EV markets (GWh/year)
12.2.2.2018-2028 forecasts - niche EV markets (GWh/year)
12.2.3.2018-2028 forecasts - Consumer Electronics (GWh/year)
12.2.4.2018-2028 forecasts - Wearables (GWh/year)
12.2.5.LIB GWh production forecasts (EV focus) 2018-2028
12.2.6.LIB GWh production forecasts (CE focus) 2018-2028
12.2.7.LIB MWh production forecasts (Wearables) 2018-2028
12.2.8.LIB MWh production forecasts (Wearables) 2018-2028
12.2.9.LIB GWh production forecasts (Stationary storage) 2018-2028
12.3.Market size in units/year
12.3.1.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 (in billion units)
12.3.2.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 (in billion units) - consumer electronics
12.3.3.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 (in billion units) - wearables
12.3.4.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 (in million units) - summary
12.4.Market size in $B/year
12.4.1.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - industrial electric vehicles
12.4.2.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - buses, trucks, and vans
12.4.3.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - passenger vehicles
12.4.4.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - two- and three-wheelers
12.4.5.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - military and drones
12.4.6.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - marine and aircraft
12.4.7.LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - other electric vehicles
12.4.8.LIB production forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - other markets
12.4.9.LIB Market forecasts ($B) by category 2018-2028 - summary
12.4.10.Lithium-sulphur battery market (MWh and $M) 2018-2028
12.4.11.Li-S battery market compared to Li-ion 2018-2028
13.COMPANY PROFILES
13.1.List of companies profiles included in this report
13.1.1.3M Battery Materials
13.1.2.Aerosense
13.1.3.Airbus Group Innovations Singapore
13.1.4.BASF Battery Materials
13.1.5.BMW
13.1.6.BYD
13.1.7.Contemporary Amperex Tech Ltd (CATL)
13.1.8.EDF
13.1.9.Electrovaya
13.1.10.Faradion
13.1.11.FDK Corporation
13.1.12.LG Chem
13.1.13.Nabaltec AG
13.1.14.Nano-Nouvelle
13.1.15.Nissan
13.1.16.OXIS Energy Ltd
13.1.17.PolyPlus Battery Company
13.1.18.SolidEnergy Systems
13.1.19.Solvay
13.1.20.StoreDot
13.1.21.TankTwo
13.1.22.Tesla, Inc.
13.1.23.Toyota Central R&D Labs, Inc.
13.1.24.Umicore Rechargeable Battery Materials
13.1.25.Volkswagen
14.APPENDIX
14.1.List of abbreviations
14.1.1.Technology and manufacturing readiness

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