Over 11 million eLCVs will be sold annually by 2045

Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts

20-year forecasts for battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, & fuel cell LCVs across Europe, China, US & RoW. Market sizes, model data, sales, Li-ion batteries, electric motors, hydrogen


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IDTechEx's report "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" provides a deep and granular analysis of the ever-growing electric light commercial vehicle (eLCV) industry. IDTechEx has assembled the most comprehensive database of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell LCVs available, with this report revealing trends in market size and sales, battery technology, vehicle performance, and more.
 
The eLCV market may not be as developed as that of electric cars, but increasing demand for zero-emission mobility from governments and the public, combined with electrification progress from OEMs and continuing maturation of battery technology, have created substantial growth in the eLCV industry to date. IDTechEx's new report forecasts a continuation in this growth, with the global eLCV market set to reach over 11 million unit sales by 2045.
 
The eLCV market is forecasted to grow to over 11 million annual sales in 2045, Source: IDTechEx
 
Regulation and incentives look set to drive eLCV adoption
Much of the eLCV market's growth to date has been driven by government regulation and the increasing desire to roll out zero-emission last mile logistics solutions for road freight and e-commerce. This has led to roughly 5% of all LCV sales in 2023 being EVs - greater than any other class of commercial vehicles except buses. However, the spread of eLCVs globally has been far from equal. Europe and China, driven by tighter emissions restrictions and more lucrative purchase grants for eLCVs, have both seen rapid market expansion and are approaching 10% EV penetration. Meanwhile, the US lags far behind on electrification legislation and benefits from lower fossil fuel prices to the detriment of its eLCV market.
 
Despite this, the new IDTechEx report expects the regulatory landscape around eLCV emissions will become even more restrictive over the next two decades, as governments stretch to meet their Paris Agreement goals and other sustainability initiatives. These will come in the form of low-emission and zero-emission zones as well as outright bans on the sale of fossil fuel LCVs. Most notably, the EU has already passed such a ban for 2035, while the UK has considered an earlier 2030 date and China is expected to impose a ban too. Even the usually sluggish US has introduced new decarbonization plans specifically for LCVs, including revamped subsidy programs. IDTechEx expects that such developments will provide a major boost to the industry as a whole and incentivize uptake of EV technology for LCV fleets. For more information on how government intervention will shape the future of the eLCV market, see the full "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" report.
 
Success of eLCV sales in major global markets, Source: IDTechEx
 
eLCVs can meet fleets' performance needs now, and their financial needs soon
While government regulation will be a potent tool in driving uptake of eLCVs, the vehicles themselves also have to be able to meet the needs of fleet operators around the world. Fleets, and the types of vehicles they use, vary widely around the world in size, capacity, and range depending on the needs of each region's market. eLCVs need to not only match the performance of existing diesel LCVs on all these metrics but also do so affordably.
 
When it comes to performance, IDTechEx's "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" report demonstrates that eLCV technology is already sufficiently developed to meet the performance requirements of fleets. This is especially true for range considerations, where eLCVs can complete multiple days' driving distance with ease on a single charge. Maturation of the core technology has also led to all major LCV OEMs now producing EV versions of their most popular models. This report details over 100 eLCV models from all key OEMs (including Renault, Ford, Hyundai, Geely, and more), which have been analyzed to unearth trends in eLCV design, batteries, and motors across global markets.
 
The cost of an eLCV will soon be favorable over a diesel LCV too. eLCVs already benefit from lower operating costs (from energy and maintenance) than a combustion engine alternative, but in the present day market they suffer from high capital cost and poor resale value, leading to higher total costs of ownership (TCO). However, continued development of vehicle and battery technology and economies of scale from increased production will help bring down the upfront cost of eLCVs. At the same time, governments are offering assistance in the form of purchase grants while increasingly stringent emissions regulation makes it more costly to own a combustion LCV.
 
With all these factors, IDTechEx expects diesel and electric LCVs will achieve upfront cost parity and also equalize in resale value, allowing the eLCV to generate TCO savings and providing a market driver for adoption.
 
What role will fuel cells play in the future of LCVs?
Hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) LCVs provide the potential for greater range and faster refueling than what a battery-electric (BEV) model could promise. But for an FCEV to truly be a zero-emission solution, it must utilize green hydrogen - currently in short supply and far more expensive to use in LCVs than electricity. Hydrogen also suffers from a lack of adequate production and transport infrastructure in the short-term, though this will be remedied with time. IDTechEx's report delves into the key challenges faced by hydrogen LCVs, including considerations of their value proposition to fleets as compared to BEVs.
 
"Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts" brings together all these trends and more, highlighting the transformation that lies in the near future for LCVs. It considers regulation and sales trends in global markets, all key eLCV players, and total costs of ownership for the burgeoning industry. 20-year granular forecasts broken down by region and powertrain provide critical insight into the key markets driving this change within the industry.
This report provides critical market intelligence into the electric LCV market, including:
 
Major market drivers for electrification
  • Rising demand for zero-emissions LCVs
  • Regional emissions regulations, combustion engine bans, and financial incentives
  • Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of eLCVs
  • Key OEMs and LCV electrification
 
Detailed market sizing and analysis
  • Historic eLCV sales breakdown
  • Market segmentation by region and by powertrain (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
  • Sales data of key eLCV models on the market
  • OEM and supplier relationships for batteries and motors
  • Analysis of over 100 unique eLCV models from all major OEMs
 
Technology trends
  • Battery sizing for daily range requirements
  • A review of plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell LCV technology
 
Market Forecasts
  • Granular 20-year forecasts for eLCV sales, battery demand, fuel cell demand, and market size - broken down by region (Europe, China, US, RoW) and powertrain (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2019 - 2024
CAGRThe eLCV market will grow at a 20-year CAGR of 15.6%
Forecast Period2025 - 2045
Forecast UnitsUnit sales, Battery demand (GWh), Fuel cell demand (GW), Market size (US$ billion)
Regions CoveredEurope, China, United States, Worldwide
Segments Coveredbattery-electric LCVs, plug-in hybrid LCVs, fuel cell LCVs
Analyst access from IDTechEx
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Further information
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Key Report Findings
1.2.Light Commercial Vehicles
1.3.Emissions Restrictions & Fossil Fuel Bans to Drive eLCV Growth
1.4.LCV Sales in Major Markets (ICE vs. EV)
1.5.Electric and Diesel LCV Cost Parity
1.6.Key eLCV OEMs
1.7.Europe eLCV Sales
1.8.China eLCV Sales
1.9.US eLCV Sales
1.10.Depreciation Dominates eLCV TCO
1.11.eLCVs Require Purchase Grants To Generate ROI
1.12.eLCV Batteries Can Match ICE Performance
1.13.Battery Sizes Vary by Region
1.14.Fuel Cells LCVs Need Green Hydrogen - But Electricity Will Be Cheaper
1.15.Global eLCV Sales Forecast
1.16.BEVs To Dominate The Future eLCV Market
1.17.Global eLCV Battery Demand Forecast
1.18.Global eLCV Market Size Forecast
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Introduction to the LCV Industry
2.1.1.Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs)
2.1.2.IDTechEx LCV Segmentation
2.1.3.Segments of Land Transportation
2.1.4.Regional LCV Sales
2.2.Drivers for Electrification
2.2.1.Transportation as a Source of Emissions
2.2.2.Transport Emissions by Vehicle Segment
2.2.3.Urban Air Quality
2.2.4.Fossil Fuel Bans
2.2.5.Example Fossil Fuel Bans by Region
2.2.6.Fuel Price Volatility
2.2.7.Last Mile Logistics
2.2.8.Road Freight to See Increased Demand
2.2.9.Emissions Objectives of Largest e-Commerce Companies
2.3.Challenges for eLCVs
2.3.1.Range Considerations
2.3.2.Total Cost of Ownership
2.3.3.Potential for Electric and Diesel LCV Cost Parity
2.3.4.IDTechEx Assumptions for Battery Size, Range, and TCO Calculation
2.3.5.More Details in IDTechEx's Reports
3.ELCV MODEL DATA
3.1.Overview of Model Data
3.2.Model Data (1)
3.3.Model Data (2)
3.4.Model Data (3)
3.5.Model Data (4)
3.6.Model Data (5)
3.7.Model Data (6)
3.8.Model Data (7)
3.9.Model Data (8)
4.TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP (TCO)
4.1.Factors Influencing TCO
4.1.1.Regional Variations in Diesel and Electricity Prices
4.1.2.eLCVs Reduce Maintenance Costs and Downtime
4.1.3.Fleet Lifetimes, Insurance Costs, and Charger Installation Costs
4.1.4.Depreciation for LCVs and eLCVs
4.1.5.Depreciation and Resale Value
4.1.6.Will eLCVs Require Battery Replacements?
4.2.TCO Analysis
4.2.1.TCO Analysis Example - Small LCV/eLCV (1)
4.2.2.TCO Analysis Example - Small LCV/eLCV (2)
4.2.3.TCO Analysis Example - Medium LCV/eLCV
4.2.4.TCO Analysis Example - Large LCV/eLCV
4.2.5.What Makes Up eLCV TCO?
4.2.6.Governments and OEMs Providing Purchase Subsidies
4.2.7.Subsidies Will Reduce Breakeven Periods for eLCVs
4.2.8.Taxation and Emissions Charges for LCVs
4.2.9.Emissions Charges Accelerate Viability of eLCVs
4.2.10.Varying Emissions Charges
4.2.11.Combining Purchase Grants with Emissions Charges
4.2.12.TCO Savings for Fleet Operators
4.3.Leasing Models and Total Cost of Leasing
4.3.1.Commercial Van Leasing vs. Ownership
4.3.2.Monthly Leasing Costs
4.3.3.TCL Analysis Example - Small LCV/eLCV
4.3.4.TCL Analysis Example - Medium and Large LCV/eLCV
4.3.5.Emissions Charges Will Make eLCVs the Preferred Leasing Option
4.3.6.Comparing TCO and TCL
4.3.7.Strengthening Financial Advantages for eLCVs
5.ELCVS IN EUROPE
5.1.Overview
5.1.1.eLCV Sales in Europe
5.1.2.eLCVs Sales in Europe Slowing Down in 2024
5.1.3.Key European eLCV OEMs
5.1.4.Best Selling eLCVs in Europe
5.1.5.EV Adoption Is Not Even Amongst European Countries
5.1.6.Diesel Emissions vs Grid Emissions from Charging - Europe
5.1.7.Low- and Zero-Emission Zones on The Rise
5.2.TCO and TCL in Europe
5.2.1.Purchase Grants in Europe
5.2.2.Small and Medium eLCV TCO
5.2.3.Large eLCV TCO
5.2.4.What Does Europe Need to Favor eLCV Ownership?
5.2.5.TCO vs. TCL
5.2.6.Commentary on Emissions Restrictions in Europe
5.3.Models and Case Studies
5.3.1.Renault
5.3.2.Citroen
5.3.3.Citroen eLCV Price Premiums
5.3.4.Mercedes
5.3.5.IVECO
5.3.6.Fiat
5.3.7.Compact Utility Vehicles
6.ELCVS IN CHINA
6.1.Overview
6.1.1.New Energy LCV Sales
6.1.2.Leading NEV Commercial Vehicle OEMs
6.1.3.Market Entry of Key Chinese OEMs
6.1.4.Electrification in China & The Double Carbon Policy
6.1.5.Emissions from Diesel vs Electricity in China
6.2.TCO and TCL in China
6.2.1.Chinese Government Subsidizing NEV Commercial Vehicles
6.2.2.eLCV TCO in China
6.2.3.What Do eLCVs in China Need to Succeed?
6.2.4.Total Cost of Leasing Comparison
6.3.Models and Case Studies
6.3.1.Geely and Farizon
6.3.2.Foton
6.3.3.BYD
6.3.4.Karry
6.3.5.Chery Pelkan
7.ELCVS IN THE US
7.1.Overview
7.1.1.US eLCV Sales
7.1.2.US Market Entry
7.1.3.Most Popular US eLCV Models
7.1.4.US eLCV Development Driven by E-Commerce & Delivery Companies
7.1.5.Diesel vs. Electricity Emissions - US Grid
7.2.TCO and TCL in the US
7.2.1.Key Differences in US LCV Design and Operation
7.2.2.EV Grants and Subsidies in the US
7.2.3.TCO in the US
7.2.4.What Do eLCVs in the US Need to Succeed?
7.2.5.TCL in the US
7.3.Models and Case Studies
7.3.1.Ford E-Transit
7.3.2.Rivian EDV Series
7.3.3.Chevrolet Brightdrop/Brightdrop Zevo 400 & 600
7.3.4.RAM Promaster EV
8.ELCVS IN THE ROW
8.1.Overview
8.1.1.Global OEM Presence in RoW Regions
8.1.2.Market Entry of RoW OEMs
8.1.3.Japan eLCV Sales
8.1.4.Korea eLCV Sales
8.1.5.India eLCV Sales
8.1.6.eLCV Sales in Other RoW Markets
8.1.7.Total Sales in RoW Markets
8.1.8.Diesel vs. EV Global Average Emissions
8.2.TCO and TCL in RoW
8.2.1.Grants and Subsidies in RoW Regions
8.2.2.TCO for RoW Regions
8.2.3.What Measures Will Move TCO Into eLCVs' Favor
8.2.4.TCL for RoW Regions
8.3.Models and Case Studies
8.3.1.Hyundai Porter 2 Electric
8.3.2.Nissan
8.3.3.Toyota Proace Electric
8.3.4.Mitsubishi
8.3.5.Switch Mobility IeV3 & IeV 4
9.BATTERIES FOR ELCVS
9.1.Battery Technologies and Sizing
9.1.1.Lithium Battery Chemistries
9.1.2.Key Differences Between Battery Technologies
9.1.3.Li-ion Battery Performance Comparisons of Typical Technology Options
9.1.4.Battery Chemistries in eLCVs
9.1.5.Battery Size Requirements for eLCVs
9.1.6.eLCV Batteries Are More Than Big Enough for Operation
9.1.7.Battery Size by Region
9.2.Supplier Case Studies and Relationships
9.2.1.Stellantis
9.2.2.GM Ultium Platform
9.2.3.CATL and Tianxing
9.2.4.Known Supplier Relationships for eLCVs (1)
9.2.5.Known Supplier Relationships for eLCVs (2)
9.2.6.Known Supplier Relationships for eLCVs (3)
9.2.7.Known Supplier Relationships for eLCVs (4)
9.2.8.Li-ion Batteries and Battery Management Systems for Electric Vehicles 2024-2034
10.MOTORS FOR ELCVS
10.1.1.Summary of Traction Motor Types
10.1.2.Comparison of Traction Motor Construction
10.1.3.ZF Preferred Electric Drivetrain Architecture
10.1.4.Evolution of Motor Power
10.1.5.eLCV Motors Match ICE Performance
10.1.6.PM Motors Are Dominant Worldwide
10.1.7.Known Tier 1 Relationships for eLCVs
10.1.8.OEMs Moving Motor Development In-House
10.1.9.Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2025-2035: Technologies, Materials, Markets, and Forecasts
11.PLUG-IN HYBRID LCVS
11.1.PHEV Overview
11.1.1.Primary Advantages of PHEVs
11.1.2.Primary Barriers of PHEVs
11.1.3.Comparing TCO: ICE vs PHEV vs BEV (1)
11.1.4.Comparing TCO: ICE vs PHEV vs BEV (2)
11.1.5.PHEV Carbon Emissions
11.1.6.IDTechEx's Outlook on Plug-In Hybrid LCVs
11.2.PHEV Models & Case Studies
11.2.1.Ford Transit Custom PHEV
11.2.2.LEVC VN5
11.2.3.Car-Derived PHEVs
12.FUEL CELL LCVS
12.1.FCEV Overview
12.1.1.Attraction of Fuel Cell Vehicles
12.1.2.Deployment Barriers of Fuel Cell Vehicles
12.1.3.Colors of Hydrogen
12.1.4.Fuel Cells for Green LCVs Need Green Hydrogen
12.1.5.BEV vs. FCEV Efficiency
12.1.6.Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction
12.1.7.Cost Comparisons (1): Hydrogen vs Diesel
12.1.8.Cost Comparisons (2): Hydrogen vs Electricity
12.1.9.Do Fleets Need FCEVs?
12.1.10.Japanese & Korean OEMs Moving Towards BEV eLCVs
12.1.11.BEV and FCEV Comparison
12.2.FCEV Models & Case Studies
12.2.1.Vauxhall Vivaro & Movano Hydrogen - and Future Stellantis FCEVs
12.2.2.Hyvia-Renault Master H2-Tech
12.2.3.First Hydrogen
12.2.4.Hydrogen Toyota Hilux Prototype
12.2.5.Previous Attempts at Fuel Cell LCVs
12.2.6.Isolated Developments in Hydrogen-Combustion LCVs
12.2.7.IDTechEx's Outlook on Fuel Cell LCVs
12.2.8.Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, Forecasts
13.FORECASTS
13.1.Forecast Methodology - Total Addressable LCV Market
13.2.Forecast Methodology - eLCVs
13.3.Forecast Assumptions
13.4.Global eLCV Sales Forecast by Region
13.5.Global eLCV Sales Forecast by Powertrain
13.6.Europe eLCV Sales Forecast by Powertrain
13.7.China eLCV Sales Forecast by Powertrain
13.8.US eLCV Sales Forecast by Powertrain
13.9.RoW eLCV Sales Forecast by Powertrain
13.10.eLCV Battery Demand Forecast by Region
13.11.eLCV Battery Demand Forecast by Powertrain
13.12.eLCV Fuel Cell Forecast by Region
13.13.eLCV Market Size Forecast by Region
13.14.eLCV Market Size Forecast by Powertrain
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 249
Forecasts to 2045
Published Nov 2024
ISBN 9781835700754
 

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