The overall Photonic Integrated Circuit market is set to grow to over US$22 billion by 2034

Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuits 2024-2034: Market, Technologies, and Forecasts

Compound Semiconductors, Transceivers, Indium Phosphide/InP PICs, Thin-Film Lithium Niobate/TFLN PICs, PICs for Quantum, Light-based Interconnects, Manufacturing, Materials, Co-Packaged Optics


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IDTechEx's report "Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuits 2024-2034: Market, Technologies, and Forecasts" looks at key market players, emerging materials (such as TFLN, and BTO), and new applications such as AI, to forecast the growth of the Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) market. IDTechEx also discusses emerging technologies, such as Programmable Photonics, Photonic Quantum Computers, and Co-Packaged Optics.
 
What are the benefits and challenges for Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuits?
Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs) are tiny optical systems made out of materials such as Silica (Glass), Silicon, or Indium Phosphide. PICs enable everything from complex optical designs that allow billions of bits of information to be sent and received in a package the size of a candy bar to artificial noses that can detect different compounds and molecules in the air around them.
 
By leveraging the billions of dollars in investment in the CMOS chips, PICs can unlock new processing scaling potential beyond Moore's law. However, there are still significant challenges for the PIC market, such as material limitations, integration complexity, and cost management. Large demand volumes are required to offset the initial cost of designing and manufacturing PICs, and production lead times can take months. IDTechEx's new PIC report thoroughly investigates the PIC market and has identified Photonic Transceivers for AI as an emerging segment that is soon to be the largest source of demand for PICs.
 
What are the PIC materials of the future?
There is a wide variety of future PIC materials. Most of the current market uses Silicon and Silica-based PICs for light propagation, however, as an indirect semiconductor, Silicon is not an efficient light source or photodetector. Therefore, Silicon is usually combined with III-V materials for light sources and photodetection. Silicon's market dominance is set to continue, however, Thin Film Lithium Niobate (TFLN), with its moderate Pockels effect and low material loss, is emerging as a strong contender for applications that require high-performance modulation such as quantum systems or potentially high-performance transceivers in the future. Monolithic Indium Phosphide (InP) continues to be a major player due to its ability to detect and emit light. Additionally, innovative materials like Barium Titanite (BTO) and rare-earth metals are being explored for their potential in quantum computing and other cutting-edge applications.
 
How AI is changing the demand for Silicon Photonics and PICs
The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has spurred an unprecedented demand for high-performance transceivers capable of supporting the massive data rates required by AI accelerators and data centers. Silicon Photonics and PICs are at the forefront of this revolution, with their ability to transmit data at speeds of 1.6Tbps and beyond. As shown by Nvidia's latest Blackwell CPUs, which according to IDTechEx's research, require approximately two 800G transceivers per GPU, the need for efficient, high-bandwidth communication is becoming more critical for AI, positioning Silicon Photonics and PICs as essential components in the AI-driven future. The biggest driver of the development of PIC transceivers is AI, as higher-performance AI accelerators will require higher-performance transceivers, with 3.2Tbps transceivers expected to arrive by 2026.
 
What are the future applications?
Other applications for Silicon Photonics and PICs vary - from high-bandwidth chip-to-chip interconnects to advanced packaging and co-packaged optics, these technologies are paving the way for next-generation computing.
 
Photonic Engines and Accelerators: Using certain photonic components such as Mach-Zehnder Interferometers, and controlling these components through electro-optical interconnects, high-performance processors and programmable PIC devices can be designed and manufactured, unlocking higher performance than what is possible with electronic accelerators alone.
 
PIC-based Sensors: Certain PIC materials, such as Silicon Nitride, can used for a range of different sensors, from gas sensors to 'artificial noses'. The healthcare sensor industry may be able to take advantage of the miniaturization of optical components into PIC devices, which could see applications in Point-of-Care diagnostics or Wearables.
 
PIC-based FMCW LiDAR has the potential to transform the automotive and agricultural industries with applications in drones and autonomous vehicles.
 
Quantum Systems: Companies investing in Trapped Ion and Photon-based Quantum Computing are looking to PICs for more stable and scalable quantum systems. The challenge lies in achieving the precise control of photons necessary for quantum computation.
 
IDTechEx is forecasting a 2.4x growth of the PIC market by 2034, primarily derived through growth in the transceivers for AI and 5G markets. Source: IDTechEx
 
The market for Silicon Photonics and PICs is experiencing robust growth, driven by the surge in AI and datacom transceiver demand. Key players in the industry such as Intel/Jabil, Coherent, and Infinera are actively using PICs within their transceivers. Innolight, a China-based transceiver company, hit 1.6Tbps of transfer speed in their latest transceivers in late 2023, which are due to start shipping for data-center applications in 2024. Coherent, which has its own InP wafer fab facilities, is also developing higher-performance transceivers for 1.6T+ applications. Intel Silicon Photonics, which is potentially going to be acquired by manufacturing firm, Jabil, sold ~1.7 million PICs in 2023 according to IDTechEx's analysis, and is continuing to develop datacom and telecom transceivers. IDTechEx forecasts that PIC technology is to continue to dominate the high-performance transceiver market, further solidifying its position as a critical component in the modern technological landscape.
 
What is in this report?
This report "Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuits" includes a detailed examination of the latest innovations in Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuits, key technical trends, analysis across the value chain, major player analysis, and granular market forecasts.
 
The main contents covered in this report:
  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction and Key Concept-Technology Background - What is Silicon Photonics?
  • Photonic Integrated Circuit Key Concepts
 
  • Manufacturing and Material-SOI, SiN, InP, TFLN, BTO, Polymer, and Rare-Earth Metals Discussion, Benchmarks, Key Players, and Startups.
 
  • Application-The Semiconductor Energy Crisis
  • Photonic Integrated Circuits for High-Performance Transceivers for Data Centers
  • Photonic Integrated Circuits for On-Device Interconnects
  • Advanced Packaging and Co-Packaged Optics
  • Hybrid integration: Co-Packaged Optics
  • Photonic Engines and Accelerators for AI and Neuromorphic Compute
  • Photonic Integrated Circuits for Quantum Computing
  • Photonic Integrated Circuit-based Sensors
  • Photonic Integrated Circuit-based LiDAR
 
  • Forecasts
 
This report includes several 10-year market forecasts based on conversations with industry insiders, analysis of key players (such as Nvidia, Coherent, Infinera, and more), as well as IDTechEx's expertise in data centers, 5G, autonomous vehicles, and LiDAR.
 
10-year granular Market Forecasts:
  • 10-year Total Photonic Integrated Circuit Market Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceivers for AI Unit Shipments Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceivers for AI Cost per Gbps Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceivers for AI Market Forecast
  • 10-year Data Center Population Cumulative Forecast
  • 10-year AI Accelerator Unit Shipments Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceivers for Datacom Market Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceivers for 5G Market Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceivers for 5G Unit Shipments Forecast
  • 10-year PIC Transceiver for Telecoms Market Forecast
  • 10-year Quantum PIC Market Forecast
  • 10-year PIC-based LiDAR Market Forecast
  • 10-year PIC-based Sensor Market Forecast
Report MetricsDetails
CAGRThe overall Photonic Integrated Circuit market is set to grow to over US$22 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8%
Forecast Period2024 - 2034
Regions CoveredWorldwide
Analyst access from IDTechEx
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Key Current & Future Photonic Integrated Circuits Applications
1.2.What are Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs)?
1.3.Electronic and Photonic Integrated Circuits Compared
1.4.Advantages and Challenges of Photonic Integrated Circuits
1.5.Integration schemes of PICs
1.6.Integrated Photonic Transceivers
1.7.Datacom PIC-based Transceiver Market Key Players
1.8.Roadmap for PIC-based Transceivers (chart)
1.9.Operational Frequency Windows of Optical Materials
1.10.Silicon and Silicon-on-insulator (SOI)
1.11.Silicon Nitride (SiN)
1.12.Indium Phosphide
1.13.Organic Polymer on Silicon
1.14.Thin Film Lithium Niobate
1.15.Barium Titanite and Rare Earth metals
1.16.IDTechEx Platform Score (Materials Benchmarked)
1.17.PIC Material Platforms Benchmarked (Visualized)
1.18.Photonic Integrated Circuit Market (Materials)
1.19.Total PIC-based Datacom Transceiver Market
1.20.PIC Transceivers for AI Units Forecast
1.21.PIC Transceiver for AI Cost per Gbps and Revenue
1.22.PIC-based Transceivers for 5G Forecasts (Revenue & Shipments)
1.23.PIC-based Transceivers for Telecoms (Revenue)
1.24.Quantum PIC Annual Revenue Forecast
1.25.Total PIC Market Data Table
2.INTRODUCTION AND KEY CONCEPTS
2.1.Technology Background
2.1.1.What is an Integrated Circuit (IC)?
2.1.2.What are Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs)?
2.1.3.Photonics versus Electronics
2.1.4.Electronic and Photonic Integrated Circuits Compared
2.1.5.Advantages and Challenges of Photonic Integrated Circuits
2.1.6.Silicon and Photonic Integrated Circuits
2.1.7.Key benefits of PICs
2.2.Photonic Integrated Circuit Key Concepts
2.2.1.Optical IO, Coupling and Couplers
2.2.2.Emission and Photon Sources/Lasers
2.2.3.Detection and Photodetectors
2.2.4.Compound Semiconductor Lasers and Photodetectors (III-V)
2.2.5.Modulation, Modulators, and Mach-Zehnder Interferometers
2.2.6.Light Propagation and Waveguides
2.2.7.Optical Component Density
2.2.8.Basic Optical Data Transmission
2.2.9.PIC Architecture
3.MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING
3.1.Wafers
3.2.Wafer sizes by platform
3.3.Integration schemes
3.4.Heterogenous Integration Techniques Compared
3.5.Micro-Transfer Printing for Heterogenous Integration of InP and Silicon Photonics
3.6.Operational Frequency Windows of Optical Materials
3.7.Important Wavelengths/Frequencies Summarized
3.8.Changing the Way Materials Behave in PICs
3.9.Research Institutions and PIC-only Foundries developing PICs (1)
3.10.Research Institutions and PIC-only Foundries developing PICs (2)
3.11.Research Institutions and PIC-only Foundries developing PICs (3)
3.12.Silicon and Silicon-on-insulator (SOI)
3.13.SOI and Silicon PIC Players
3.14.Silicon Semiconductor foundry in-house technologies
3.15.CEA-Leti's and imec's Latest SOI PIC developments
3.16.SOI Benchmarked
3.17.Silicon Nitride (SiN)
3.18.SiN PIC Players
3.19.SiN Key Foundries
3.20.Case Study: AEPONYX SiN PICs
3.21.SiN Benchmarked
3.22.Silicon (SOI and SiN) device heterogenous integration
3.23.Indium Phosphide
3.24.InP PIC Players
3.25.InP Manufacturing
3.26.Indium Phosphide Incumbent Integration Technologies (1)
3.27.Indium Phosphide Incumbent Integration Technologies (2)
3.28.InP Benchmarked
3.29.Organic Polymer on Silicon
3.30.Case Study: How is Organic Polymer PICs are Manufactured (Lightwave Logic)
3.31.Polymer on Insulator Benchmarked
3.32.Thin Film Lithium Niobate
3.33.How is TFLN Manufactured
3.34.TFLN Integration and Modulator Geometry
3.35.TFLN Benchmarked
3.36.Barium Titanite and Rare Earth metals
3.37.Case Study: Lumiphase BTO-enhanced PICs
3.38.Case Study: How BTO PICs are Manufactured (Lumiphase)
3.39.BTO Benchmarked
3.40.Materials Benchmarked
3.41.IDTechEx Platform Score (Materials Benchmarked)
3.42.PIC Material Platforms Benchmarked (Visualized)
3.43.The PIC Design Cycle: Multi-Project Wafers
4.APPLICATIONS
4.1.The Semiconductor Energy Crisis
4.1.1.Semiconductor related-energy consumption growing rapidly
4.1.2.Imec: CO2 emissions per logic technology node are doubling every 10 years
4.1.3.PICs to improve compute efficiency beyond Moore's law
4.2.Photonic Integrated Circuits for High-Performance Transceivers for Data Centers
4.2.1.How an Optical Transceiver Works
4.2.2.PICs for data communication
4.2.3.Integrated Photonic Transceivers
4.2.4.Which Transceivers are using PICs?
4.2.5.Current Trend: The AI Data Traffic explosion
4.2.6.PICs for 400G+
4.2.7.Pluggable optics
4.2.8.400G+ Pluggable Optic Form Factors
4.2.9.Datacom PIC-based Transceiver Market Key Players
4.2.10.Key Player Latest Datacom Transceivers Benchmarked
4.2.11.Linear Drive and Linear Pluggable Optics (LPO)
4.2.12.Roadmap for PIC-based Transceivers (chart)
4.3.Photonic Integrated Circuits for On-Device Interconnects
4.3.1.Interconnects
4.3.2.Overcoming the von Neumann bottleneck
4.3.3.Electrical Interconnects Case Study: Nvidia Grace Hopper for AI
4.3.4.Why improve on-device interconnects?
4.3.5.Improved Interconnects for Switches
4.3.6.Case Study: Ayer Labs TeraPHY
4.3.7.Case Study: Lightmatter's 'Passage' PIC-based Interconnect
4.4.Advanced Packaging and Co-Packaged Optics
4.4.1.Evolution roadmap of semiconductor packaging
4.4.2.Semiconductor packaging - an overview of technology
4.4.3.Key metrics for advanced semiconductor packaging performance
4.4.4.Four key factors of advanced semiconductor packaging
4.4.5.Overview of interconnection technique in semiconductor packaging
4.4.6.Roles of glass in semiconductor packaging
4.5.Hybrid integration: Co-Packaged Optics
4.5.1.The emergence of co-packaged optics (CPO)
4.5.2.Co-packaged optics for network switch
4.5.3.Pluggable optics vs CPO - 1
4.5.4.Pluggable optics vs CPO - 2
4.5.5.Optical dies integration for compute silicon
4.5.6.Future challenges in CPO
4.5.7.Co-packaging vs Co-packaged optics (CPO)
4.5.8.Co-packaged optics - package structure
4.5.9.Value proposition of CPO
4.5.10.Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), key for advancing switching and AI networks
4.5.11.Key technology building blocks for CPO
4.5.12.Key packaging components for CPO
4.5.13.Broadcom's CPO development timeline
4.5.14.Broadcom's CPO portfolio
4.5.15.Fan-Out Embedded Bridge (FOEB) Structure for Co-Packaged Optics
4.5.16.Glass-based Co-packaged optics - vision
4.5.17.Glass-based Co-packaged optics - Packaging structure
4.5.18.Glass-based Co-packaged optics - process development
4.5.19.Corning's 102.4 Tb/s test vehicle
4.5.20.Turn-Key solution required for CPO
4.6.Photonic Engines and Accelerators for AI and Neuromorphic Compute
4.6.1.Photonic Processors - Overview
4.6.2.Photonic Processing for AI
4.6.3.Programmable Photonics, Software-Defined Photonics, & Photonic FPGAs
4.6.4.Case Study: iPronics' Programmable PIC
4.7.Photonic Integrated Circuits for Quantum Computing
4.7.1.Introduction to Quantum Computing
4.7.2.Quantum computing - photonics
4.7.3.Overview of photonic platform quantum computing
4.7.4.Comparing key players in photonic quantum computing
4.7.5.PICs for Quantum
4.7.6.Trends for Quantum PICs at SPIE Photonics West 2024
4.7.7.Photonic Integrated Circuits versus Optical Tables and Fixed Optics
4.7.8.Advantages of Photonic Integrated Circuits versus Optical Tables and Fixed Optics
4.7.9.CEA Leti's Goals for Quantum PICS
4.7.10.Quantum Photonic Building Blocks (imec)
4.7.11.Initialization, manipulation, and readout of photonic platform quantum computers
4.7.12.Which platform for quantum PICs?
4.7.13.Future PIC Requirements of the Quantum Industry
4.7.14.Roadmap for photonic quantum hardware (chart)
4.7.15.SWOT Analysis: Photonic Quantum Computers
4.8.Photonic Integrated Circuit-based Sensors
4.8.1.Opportunities for PIC Sensors: Biomedical
4.8.2.Market players developing PIC Biosensors
4.8.3.Opportunities for PIC Sensors: Gas Sensors
4.8.4.Market players developing PIC-based Gas Sensors
4.8.5.Opportunities for PIC Sensors: Structural Health Sensors
4.8.6.Market players developing Spectroscopy PICs
4.9.Photonic Integrated Circuit-based LiDAR
4.9.1.LiDAR in automotive applications
4.9.2.Opportunities for PIC Sensors: LiDAR Sensors
4.9.3.Core Aspects of LiDAR
4.9.4.Market players developing PIC-based LiDAR (1)
4.9.5.Market players developing PIC-based LiDAR (2)
4.9.6.LiDAR Wavelength and Material Trends
4.9.7.Major challenges of PIC-based FMCW lidars
4.9.8.E-Noses for Automotive
5.FORECASTS
5.1.Data Center Forecast Methodology
5.2.Global Data Center Population and AI Accelerator Unit Forecasts
5.3.Global Data Center Population and AI Accelerator Unit Forecast Data Tables
5.4.Optical Transceivers per AI Accelerator (Methodology)
5.5.PIC Transceivers for AI Units Forecast
5.6.PIC Transceiver for AI Cost per Gbps and Market
5.7.PIC Transceivers for AI Cost Forecasts (Units and Market) with Data Tables
5.8.Total PIC-based Datacom Transceiver Market
5.9.PIC-based Transceivers for 5G Forecast (Units and Market)
5.10.PIC-based Transceivers for Telecoms Market
5.11.Quantum PIC Market Forecast
5.12.PIC-based Sensor Market Forecast
5.13.PIC-based LiDAR Market Forecast
5.14.Photonic Integrated Circuit Market (Materials)
5.15.PIC Technology Market (Disaggregated by Material) Data Table
5.16.Total PIC Market Data Table
6.COMPANY PROFILES
6.1.Company Profiles and Articles included with this report
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 215
Forecasts to 2034
Published Apr 2024
ISBN 9781835700341
 

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