2025年-2045年自动驾驶汽车市场：无人驾驶出租车 & 商业服务，自动驾驶汽车SAE级别（L0, L1, L2, L3, L4）， ADAS市场，激光雷达，雷达和摄像头，市场预测，市场份额，技术趋势。

关键方面

自动驾驶汽车的覆盖范围

 

私家车中ADAS功能和传感器的普及率（2020至2023年销售的车辆）

 

自动驾驶出行服务部署

 

支持技术及其关键发展

 

20年预测：私人车辆销售、机器人出租车销售、机器人出租车服务和自动驾驶传感器销售

 

1. 执行摘要

2. 引言

3. 私人自动驾驶汽车的法规与立法进展

a. 挑战概述

b. 级别2+与级别3的区别

c. 各地区进展：

i. 欧洲

ii. 美国

iii. 中国

iv. 日本

4. 私人自动驾驶汽车

a. ADAS关键功能的采用：

i. 自动紧急制动

ii. 自适应巡航控制

iii. 车道保持辅助系统

iv. 盲点检测/监控

b. 主要OEM厂商的活动：

i. 特斯拉

ii. 通用汽车

iii. 福特

iv. 梅赛德斯·奔驰

v. 宝马

vi. 本田

vii. 理想汽车

viii. 小鹏汽车

ix. Arcfox极狐汽车

x. Zeekr极氪汽车

c. 私家车传感器套件分析

5. 机器人出租车

a. 加州和北京的测试数据分析

b. 商业化机器人出租车服务的分析

c. 主要参与者的技术和活动：

i. Waymo

ii. Cruise

iii. 百度

iv. Pony.ai

v. WeRide

vi. 2

vi. AutoX

vii. Mobileye

viii. 特斯拉

ix. Verne

6. 支持技术

a. 摄像头

b. 红外摄像头

c. 雷达

d. LiDAR

e. 地图

f. 远程操作

g. 互联车辆

7. 20年预测

a. 按SAE级别和地区划分的整体汽车市场

b. 机器人出租车可用性、服务里程和服务收入

c. 私人车辆市场按SAE级别划分：

i. 美国

ii. 中国

iii. 欧洲+英国+欧洲自由贸易联盟

iv. 日本

v. 世界其他地区

d. 自动驾驶汽车传感器：

i. 摄像头销售单位

ii. 雷达销售单位

iii. LiDAR销售单位

iv. 总汽车感知传感器市场价值（十亿美元）

 

The global robotaxi vehicle market value in 2045 will be US$174 billion, growing with a 20-year CAGR of 37% between 2025 and 2045 and with a market share dominated by leaders from the US and China, such as Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, WeRide, Baidu, and AutoX.

 

 

For many years the term level 2+ has been used to describe high component level 2 ADAS systems that provide a well-refined highway assist experience, with smooth lane cantering abilities and robust adaptive cruise control. It has now become a solid stepping stone between level 2 and level 3 with the plus signifying that drivers can take their hands off the wheel while still monitoring the road.

 

 

Over the past few years the availability of hands-free driving in the private car market has grown significantly. The market has been established since 2017 with early Super Cruise systems from General Motors. In 2024 General Motors has more than 20 models with Super Cruise available and is expanding to 750,000 miles of mapped roads to use the system on. Ford also has made a significant milestone by being the first OEM to offer level 2+ across Europe with its BlueCruise system. This report covers the full extent to which companies are offering level 2+ hands-off, eyes-on technologies, how many miles they are available on, and the laws and rules around level 2+ deployment in each region.

 

The key difference between level 2+ and level 3 is that eyes-on becomes eyes-off. This effectively means that the OEM becomes liable for anything that happens while the vehicle is reporting that it is operating at level 3. So far, the only OEMs happy to accept this have been Mercedes and BMW, the former having certified level 3 driving in Germany, California, and Nevada, and the latter only having the technology in Germany.

 

Level 3 has been allowed on the roads since 2021, with a very small deployment from Honda in Japan. Following that, Mercedes certified its system in Germany in 2022, then in the US in 2023. Since then BMW has been certified in Germany and Mercedes has announced intentions to raise its maximum operating speed from 60kph (~40mph) to 95kph (~60mph). By the end of 2024, IDTechEx had expected to see more regions getting level 3 certification and more companies, especially GM and Ford, certifying their technologies. Progress has been much slower than initially thought, something that is reflected in IDTechEx's forecasts. IDTechEx now sees level 2+ as a more significant avenue of development, with level 3 likely to pick up in a few years time.

 

Given the slow start that level 3 vehicles have had, IDTechEx now thinks their deployment and adoption will be much slower than initially predicted. See the full report for the technologies available on these vehicles, all the rules surrounding level 3 deployment, and IDTechEx's predictions for how level 3 technologies will spread.

 

The robotaxi market is coming of age, with multiple commercial driverless robotaxi services coming online across the US and China in the past couple of years. Key players in these regions such as Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, Baidu's Apollo Go, and Amazon-backed Zoox, have now accumulated tens of millions of miles of real-world driving. Between them, these companies now have more than 2,000 robotaxis on the road, collecting data to fuel AI drivers, proving autonomous drivers can drive safely, and serving mobility as a service customers. For example, in Wuhan, Baidu has 500 robotaxis serving customers, hoping to scale to 1,000 by the end of 2024.

 

Now that commercial driverless robotaxi services have become established, IDTechEx expects at least a handful of new provider and location combinations to come online each year; for example, Waymo has already been confirmed in Austin and Atlanta. In the US and China this will soon build to a flurry of cities and services, with IDTechEx expecting the sale of robotaxi vehicles to reach US$174 billion in 2045, representing a 37% CAGR from 2025.

 

In addition to the US and China, IDTechEx expects driverless robotaxi services in Europe and Japan to begin soon, see the full report for when.

 

This report gives details of all the main robotaxi deployments, including fleet numbers and service area in square miles. IDTechEx tracks which cities have had commercial robotaxi deployments, analyzes the data and provides a 20-year forecast for the emergence of fully autonomous robotaxi services.

 

 

List of autonomous vehicle players:

 

 

Coverage of autonomous vehicles at all levels

 

Uptake of ADAS features and sensors on private cars, adoption percentages from vehicles sold in 2020 to 2023 for

 

Autonomous mobility as a service deployments

 

Enabling technologies and key developments therein

 

20-year forecast of private vehicle sales, robotaxi sales, robotaxi services, and autonomous driving sensor sales in:

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